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Operational interventions:
Adaptation of terrestrial
biodiversity to climate change
Guy F Midgley
Stellenbosch University
...
Four broad
activities
• Frame challenge in
evolutionary context
• Broaden predictive
understanding
• Integrate global evid...
An evolutionary “shock”
ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com
iceandclimate.nbi.ku.dk
Future
Potential
Anthropogenic
range
Beerling, Royer 2011 Nature Geoscience 4: 418-420.
www.masterresource.org nature.com/ncomms/2014/140924/ncomms6053/abs/ncomms6053.html
Ecosystems under strong temperature co...
Longitude (°E)
Latitude(°S)
18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0
34.5
34.0
33.5
10 km
Range shift-based adaptation planning
Extinct
Persist...
“Passive” adaptation
Landscape planning focus
• Range shift modelling
• Multiple climate and
development scenarios
• Optim...
Ecosystems more commonly controlled
by water and disturbance, than by temperature alone
Nemani et al 2003
Science 300: 156...
Meta-stable
ecosystems
• Ecosystem structure/function
can shift rapidly
• Event-driven
changes/thresholds/multiple
stable ...
Bird community responses
Sagittariidae, Accipitridae
Cisticolidae, Pycnonotidae
Loftie-Eaton 2014
M.Sc. thesis, UCT
_
_
_+
southwestclimatechange.org
Climate x invasive x disturbance
“Active” adaptation
• Process-based modelling
• Structure/function->community
• Disturbance management –
herbivory/fire/me...
Integrate global
evidence base
• Projections need verification
• Climate variability plus trend
adds complexity
• System r...
Operational interventions: Adaptation of terrestrial biodiversity to climate change, G. Midgley
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Operational interventions: Adaptation of terrestrial biodiversity to climate change, G. Midgley

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G. Midgley (Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa) at the Our Common Future Under Climate Change conference, July 7-10 in Paris, France.

More at http://www.commonfuture-paris2015.org/

Publié dans : Sciences
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Operational interventions: Adaptation of terrestrial biodiversity to climate change, G. Midgley

  1. 1. Operational interventions: Adaptation of terrestrial biodiversity to climate change Guy F Midgley Stellenbosch University South African National Biodiversity Institute
  2. 2. Four broad activities • Frame challenge in evolutionary context • Broaden predictive understanding • Integrate global evidence base • Engage with shortening science-policy-practice loop
  3. 3. An evolutionary “shock” ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com
  4. 4. iceandclimate.nbi.ku.dk
  5. 5. Future Potential Anthropogenic range Beerling, Royer 2011 Nature Geoscience 4: 418-420.
  6. 6. www.masterresource.org nature.com/ncomms/2014/140924/ncomms6053/abs/ncomms6053.html Ecosystems under strong temperature control: projection via species geographic range shifts
  7. 7. Longitude (°E) Latitude(°S) 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 34.5 34.0 33.5 10 km Range shift-based adaptation planning Extinct Persist Migrate Out of reach
  8. 8. “Passive” adaptation Landscape planning focus • Range shift modelling • Multiple climate and development scenarios • Optimize efficiency of Protected Areas • Expanded PAs • Use of “matrix” • Corridors/connectivity Active intervention • Assisted migration • Ex-situ conservation amphibianark.org
  9. 9. Ecosystems more commonly controlled by water and disturbance, than by temperature alone Nemani et al 2003 Science 300: 1560- 1563 Archibald et al 2013 PNAS 110: 6442-6447 Physical control of productivity Global pyromes (fire biomes)
  10. 10. Meta-stable ecosystems • Ecosystem structure/function can shift rapidly • Event-driven changes/thresholds/multiple stable states • Community assemblage shifts vs individual species range shifts • Role for active management 1925 1993 2007 CO2 300-310 ppm CO2 360-370 ppm CO2 390-400 ppm Queenstown South Africa Bond/Midgley Phil Trans R Soc 367:601-612 Photo credits Timm Hoffman, James Puttick PCU, UCT
  11. 11. Bird community responses Sagittariidae, Accipitridae Cisticolidae, Pycnonotidae Loftie-Eaton 2014 M.Sc. thesis, UCT _ _ _+
  12. 12. southwestclimatechange.org Climate x invasive x disturbance
  13. 13. “Active” adaptation • Process-based modelling • Structure/function->community • Disturbance management – herbivory/fire/mechanical clearing/herbicides • Ecosys. Services/EBA links • Land use/invasive spp. • Potential adaptation- mitigation conflicts • Integrate spp. focus sanparks.orgsagr.co.za
  14. 14. Integrate global evidence base • Projections need verification • Climate variability plus trend adds complexity • System responses more complex than currently modelled • Outcomes of interventions valuable for learning • Use the next decade of climate change more deliberately • Expand the effort – e.g. citizen science

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