Energy and Climate Change: The Case of India
Our Common Future under Climate Change
International Scientific Conference, P...
Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad
A technological society has two choices.
First it can wait until catastrophic fai...
Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad
Development Path:
Why and How Choice matters?
Model Architecture: ‘Horses for Courses’
Scenario Drivers: Trends
Demographics:
• Population will increase from 1.2
to 1.6 billion by 2050
• Increasing urbanisatio...
Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad
Macro Drivers of India Scenarios
2010
Conventional
2030
Sustainable
2030
Conventi...
Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad
Sectors and Strategies
Sectors Strategy
Housing Affordable housing + Building
Cod...
Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad
Industry Sector Demand
8
0
200
400
600
800
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
MillionTon
St...
Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad
Demand: Passenger Transport (Bpkms)
9
Primary Energy
10
CO2 Emissions
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Conventional Sustainable Conventional Sustainable
2010 2030 2050
Million...
CO2 Emissions by Sector
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
ConventionalSustainableConventionalSustainable
2010 2030 2050
...
Primary Energy & CO2 Emissions
2010 2030
Con.
2030
Sus.
2050
Con.
2050
Sus.
Total CO2
(Million Tons)
1497 2810 2138 3157 2...
Co-Benefits: Air Pollution & Energy Security
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
Conventional Sustainable Conventional Sustainable
2...
Co-benefits: Social Value of Carbon
2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2 saved (Million tCO2) 370.6 671.8 918.9 1049.4
Revenue from CO2...
Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad
Climate Policies and India
1) Choice of Development Path: Overcoming Contradictio...
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Shukla pr 20150709_1430_unesco_fontenoy_-_room_ii

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Shukla pr 20150709_1430_unesco_fontenoy_-_room_ii

  1. 1. Energy and Climate Change: The Case of India Our Common Future under Climate Change International Scientific Conference, Paris July 7-10, 2015 Session 4406 (a) - Climate, Sustainable Development and Energy Security P.R. Shukla Indian Institue of Management Ahmedabad
  2. 2. Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad A technological society has two choices. First it can wait until catastrophic failures expose systemic deficiencies, distortion and self-deceptions… Secondly, a culture can provide social checks and balances to correct for systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures.” - Mahatma Gandhi ‘.. there is no “Plan B” for action as there is no “Planet B’ - Ban Ki-Moon Scenarios: Perspectives
  3. 3. Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad Development Path: Why and How Choice matters?
  4. 4. Model Architecture: ‘Horses for Courses’
  5. 5. Scenario Drivers: Trends Demographics: • Population will increase from 1.2 to 1.6 billion by 2050 • Increasing urbanisation Income: • GDP is expected to grow at CAGR of more than 7% in reference scenario • Per capita incomes to cross US $ 10,000 by 2045
  6. 6. Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad Macro Drivers of India Scenarios 2010 Conventional 2030 Sustainable 2030 Conventional 2050 Sustainable 2050 Population (million) 1206 1476 1434 1620 1509 Households (million) 247 365 356 502 473 Urbanization (%) 30 39 43 50 55 GDP (Billion $) 1397 6489 6002 25664 23007 GDP per capita (US $) 1158 4397 4186 15842 15247 6
  7. 7. Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad Sectors and Strategies Sectors Strategy Housing Affordable housing + Building Codes, Materials Transport Avoid, Shift, Improve, Switch Lighting CFL /LEDs Cooking Access to clean fuels Cooling /Heating Labelling, Building Codes Waste National Mission on Waste …. Sectors Strategy Steel Plant Benchmarking, PAT, Market Reforms, Recycle Cement Plant Benchmarking, PAT, Market Reforms, Materials (FlyAsh) Aluminium Plant Benchmarking, PAT, Market Reforms, Recycle … Habitats Industry Electricity Sectors Strategy Renewable National Mission on Solar, Wind Tariff Coal Clean Coal Technologies, T&D Coal by Wire Consumption Targeted Subsidies 7
  8. 8. Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad Industry Sector Demand 8 0 200 400 600 800 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 MillionTon Steel Demand Conventional Sustainable 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Cement Demand Conventional Sustainable 0 5 10 15 20 25 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Aluminium Demand Conventional Sustainable 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Fertilizer Demand Conventional Sustainable MillionTonMillionTon MillionTon
  9. 9. Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad Demand: Passenger Transport (Bpkms) 9
  10. 10. Primary Energy 10
  11. 11. CO2 Emissions 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Conventional Sustainable Conventional Sustainable 2010 2030 2050 MillionTons Gas Oil Coal
  12. 12. CO2 Emissions by Sector 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 ConventionalSustainableConventionalSustainable 2010 2030 2050 MtCO2 Agriculture Transport Industry Commercial Residential
  13. 13. Primary Energy & CO2 Emissions 2010 2030 Con. 2030 Sus. 2050 Con. 2050 Sus. Total CO2 (Million Tons) 1497 2810 2138 3157 2108 Primary Energy Supply (EJ) 25.9 54 45 101.1 69.4 Energy Intensity (TJ/M$) 13 6.5 5.9 3.1 2.5 CO2 intensity (tCO2/TJ) 82.7 66.7 60.1 39.9 36.1 CO2 per capita (tCO2/capita) 1.24 1.9 1.49 1.95 1.4 13
  14. 14. Co-Benefits: Air Pollution & Energy Security - 100 200 300 400 500 600 Conventional Sustainable Conventional Sustainable 2010 2030 2050 BillionUSD Value of Energy Imports Gas Oil Coal
  15. 15. Co-benefits: Social Value of Carbon 2020 2030 2040 2050 CO2 saved (Million tCO2) 370.6 671.8 918.9 1049.4 Revenue from CO2 saved (Bn US $ 2010) 16.6 45.1 82.3 152.9 Revenue as % of GDP 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 15 Revenues from carbon saved in Sustainable Scenario
  16. 16. Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad Climate Policies and India 1) Choice of Development Path: Overcoming Contradictions • Sustainable Scenario is ‘Aspiration’ • Conventional trends appear ‘Real’ together with inherited adverse ‘lock-ins • Behavior/Institutional lock-ins sustain technology/infrastructure lock-ins 2) Policy Evolution: Science + Process => Policies • Integrated Assessment?? • Consensual quick fixes: ‘A camel is a horse designed by a committee’ 3) Short-Medium Term Proposals – INDCs?? • Expect heterogeneous targets that accommodate diverse interests and circumvent constraints • National processes adapted to overarching Paris (2015) agreement framework • Weak alignment with 2OC Pathway 4) Long-term Policies • Unlock old lock-ins/ Prevent new lock-ins (e.g. technology infrastructure choices) • Develop national market for low carbon industry and services • Adaptation (4OC??) and Capacity Building

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