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Winkler h 20150708_1500_upmc_jussieu_-_room_201

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Winkler h 20150708_1500_upmc_jussieu_-_room_201

  1. 1. 1 ERC Developing pathways for zero poverty and zero emissions Presentation to Our Common Future under Climate Change Conference Paris, 8 July 2015 Prof. Harald Winkler Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town
  2. 2. 2 ERC Zero poverty and zero emissions • Poverty eradication top priority of developing countries for long time • Global goal on mitigation framed as net zero emissions by 2050/70 • SDG “end poverty in all its forms everywhere” • How to achieve zero poverty and zero emissions?
  3. 3. 3 ERC Easy problem? hard solutions ! • Oxfam “make poverty history” • “For every complex problem, there is a solution that is simple, neat, and wrong.” H.L. Mencken
  4. 4. 4 ERC Material conditions shape ideas • Poverty and inequality shape agenda in South Africa • Many developing countries, climate action needed at same time as reducing poverty and inequality • National Development Plan poverty and inequality = foremost priorities • Emissions ‘peak, plateau and decline’ trajectory • Very challenging in economy dominated by coal, with low skills base, electricity crisis, Peak Decline Plateau 550
  5. 5. 5 ERC Model multiple development-climate objectives • Information that is credible, analytically rigorous and therefore relevant • Story to enable interest to imagine themselves in different future = relevant and legitimate • Long-standing energy model development at ERC –now linked with economy-wide model • Technically plausible, but has negative welfare effects – Phase 1 Winkler, H., et al., Information for a developmental approach to mitigation: Linking sectoral and economy-wide models for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and South Africa. Joint paper for CDKN project on Linking sectoral and economy-wide models. 2014, Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town: Cape Town. Merven, B., et al., The socio-economic implications of mitigation actions in the power generation sector and carbon taxes in South Africa. Working paper for CDKN project on Linking sectoral and economy-wide models.
  6. 6. 6 ERC Deep decarbonisation, jobs, eductions, energy, agriculture and more …. • ERC undertook ‘deep decarbonisation pathways project’ case study on South Africa • 14 Gt CO2-eq in SA’s energy sector from 2015-2050 and meeting the multiple development objectives is possible – to a point • From history of minerals-energy complex, focused on energy intensive sector growth • But how to replace jobs lost in mining, energy supply and beneficiation? • Economic Structure scenarios  decrease unemployment by incentivizing growth in sectors with low carbon emissions and high levels of labour absorption • High Skills scenario  Assume better education; high skilled labour
  7. 7. 7 ERC More inclusive development, but …  Both scenarios – more inclusive development • Income increases by 170% from 2010 to 2050 • Popuation in low-income bracket from 50% to ~18% by 2050  Unemployment reduced – from current 24% to 12% in Economic Structure, 18% in High Skills  High Skills needed anyway –but hard to achieve  Reducing poverty and emissions is a ‘wicked problem’  Cannot wait for ‘complete’ solution
  8. 8. 8 ERC Implement SD policies • Sustainable development policies and measures (SD- PAMs) • Recognise these are not ‘business-as-usual’ Winkler, H., et al., Sustainable development policies and measures: starting from development to tackle climate change, in Building on the Kyoto Protocol: Options for protecting the climate, K. Baumert, et al., Editors. 2002, World Resources Institute: Washington DC. p. 61-87. Winkler, H., N. Höhne, and M. Den Elzen, Methods for quantifying the benefits of sustainable development policies and measures (SD-PAMs). Climate Policy, 2008 8(2): p. 119–134. Winkler, H., M. Howells, and K. Baumert, Sustainable development policies and measures: institutional issues and electrical efficiency in South Africa. Climate Policy, 2007. 7 (3): p. 212– 229. Höhne, N. and S. Moltmann, Linking national climate and sustainable development policies with the post-2012 climate regime: Proposals in the energy sector for Brazil, China, India, South Africa and South Korea. 2007, Ecofys: Cologne. RSA, Dialogue working paper 18: Submission from South Africa: Sustainable Development Policies and Measures. 2006, Department of Environmental Affairs & Tourism: Pretoria. p. 3. Baumert, K. and H. Winkler, SD-PAMs and international climate agreements. Chapter 2, in Growing in the greenhouse: Protecting the climate by putting development first, R. Bradley and K.A. Baumert, Editors. 2005, World Resources Institute: Washington, D.C. p. 15-23.
  9. 9. 9 ERC • If zero poverty cannot be achieved, then ? • Mathematical models will NOT provide ‘solution space’ • Co-producing knowledge with stakeholders • Long-term mitigation scenarios for South Africa • Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru, • Use this approach for transition to zero poverty and zero emissions societies. If there is no zero poverty, we cannot expect ambitious action in developing countries
  10. 10. 10 ERC A new social contract? To realise zero poverty and zero emissions, a new social contract is needed Income (GDP/capita) GHGemissions
  11. 11. 11 ERC Thank you www.erc.uct.ac.za www.mapsprogramme.org Harald.Winkler@uct.ac.za