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New Crop Varieties and Climate Chane Adaptation, IAAE symposium 2015

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The triennial conference of the International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE) provides a platform for the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) teams of the CGIAR centers to showcase their work. The first symposium organized by these teams was on ‘Bio-economic modeling to assess options for enhancing food security under climate change in the developing world’ and it took place during the 29th IAAE conference in Brazil in 2012. The teams came again together in 2015 to organize a second symposium on ‘Interpreting results from using bio-economic modeling for global and regional ex ante impact assessment’ at the 30th IAAE conference which took place in Milan on August 8-14, 2015.

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New Crop Varieties and Climate Chane Adaptation, IAAE symposium 2015

  1. 1. New crop varieties and climate change adaptation Ex-ante analysis of virtual technologies using DSSAT and IMPACT Keith Wiebe, Bernardo Creamer, Ulrich Kleinwechter, Sika Gbegbelegbe, Guy Hareau, Shahnila Islam, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Khondoker Mottaleb, Sherman Robinson, Swamikannu Nedumaran ICAE Milan 12 August 2015
  2. 2. Objectives 1. Improved system of integrated biophysical and economic modeling tools 2. Stronger community of practice for scenario analysis and ex ante impact assessment 3. Improved assessments of alternative global futures 4. To inform research, investment and policy decisions in the CGIAR and its partners
  3. 3. 1. Improved modeling tools • Complete recoding of IMPACT version 3 • Disaggregation geographically and by commodity • Improved water & crop models • New data management system • Modular framework • Training
  4. 4. 2. Stronger community of practice • 13 CGIAR centers now participating in GFSF • IFPRI, Bioversity, CIAT, CIMMYT, CIP, ICARDA, ICRAF, ICRISAT, IITA, ILRI, IRRI, IWMI, WorldFish; AfricaRice and CIFOR joining • Collaboration with other global economic modeling groups through AgMIP
  5. 5. • Role of agricultural technologies • Africa regional reports • Analyses by CGIAR centers • CCAFS regional studies • AgMIP global economic assessments Rainfed Maize (Africa) Irrigated Wheat (S. Asia) Rainfed Rice (S. + SE. Asia) Rainfed Potato (Asia) Rainfed Sorghum (Africa + India) Rainfed Groundnut (Africa + SE Asia) Rainfed Cassava (E. + S. + SE. Asia) 3. Improved assessments
  6. 6. Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014) Modeling climate impacts on agriculture: biophysical and economic effects
  7. 7. Climate change impacts in 2050 Climate change impacts on global yields, area, production, consumption, exports, imports and prices of coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar in 2050 (% change relative to 2050 SSP2 baseline values) Source: Wiebe et al. (forthcoming, Environmental Research Letters)
  8. 8. Promising CGIAR technologies Crop Center Trait Countries (Region) Final Adoption Maize CIMMYT Drought tolerance Angola, Benin, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe (M1) 30% Heat tolerance Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan (M2) 30% Wheat CIMMYT Drought tolerance Iran, Turkey (W1) 35% Heat tolerance India, Pakistan (W2) 30% Drought and heat tolerance Argentina, South Africa (W3) 30% Potato CIP Drought tolerance Bangladesh, China, Kyrgyzstan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan (P1) 4-40% Heat tolerance 4-40% Drought and heat tolerance 4-40% Sorghum ICRISAT Drought tolerance Burkina Faso, Eritrea, Ethiopia, India, Mali, Nigeria, Sudan, United Republic of Tanzania (S1) 20-80% Groundnut ICRISAT Drought tolerance Burkina Faso, Ghana, India, Malawi, Mali, Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Viet Nam (G1) 40-60% Heat tolerance 40-60% Drought and heat tolerance, high yielding 40-60% Cassava CIAT Mealybug control methods China, India, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Myanmar, Thailand (C1) NA Source: Islam et al. (draft)
  9. 9. Baseline productivity growth Baseline productivity growth (% change from 2005 to 2050) Without Market Effects With Market Effects Crop Region Water Regime NoCC (1) CC (2) NoCC (3) CC (4) Maize M1 irrigated 68.3 60.4 48.7 46.2 rainfed 55.8 46.7 36.5 32.4 Maize M2 irrigated 85.6 46.3 66.0 33.6 rainfed 123.5 74.0 96.3 56.0 Wheat W1 irrigated 153.2 177.4 141.1 164.3 rainfed 89.1 102.2 79.0 91.3 Wheat W2 irrigated 103.9 90.6 97.5 85.0 rainfed 86.3 86.4 81.1 81.2 Wheat W3 irrigated 34.8 15.7 19.0 2.3 rainfed 15.2 -2.7 0.8 -14.7 Potato P1 irrigated 56.6 53.6 38.5 38.2 rainfed 16.1 15.5 3.1 4.3 Sorghum S1 irrigated 224.0 123.4 197.1 107.7 rainfed 88.4 70.6 72.1 57.9 Groundnut G1 irrigated 31.3 17.7 16.5 6.9 rainfed 30.7 18.8 16.5 8.3 Cassava C1 irrigated 101.6 89.7 81.9 75.5 rainfed 33.2 15.6 22.3 8.7 Source: Islam et al. (draft)
  10. 10. Yield impacts of promising technologies under climate change Promising Technologies Single Traits Stacked Traits Drought Tolerance Heat Tolerance Drought + Heat Tolerance Drought + Heat Tolerance + High Yielding Crop Irrigated Rainfed Irrigated Rainfed Irrigated Rainfed Irrigated Rainfed Maize 10.5 23.9 27.5 13.5 Wheat 0.1 2.0 0.9 - 4.5 2.8 Potatoes 0.3 0.4 1.6 0.1 3.1 0.4 Sorghum 0.0 6.6 Groundnuts 0.2 3.7 7.1 4.1 15.6 13.8 (percent difference from 2050 CC baseline without the new technologies) Source: Islam et al. (draft)
  11. 11. • Role of agricultural technologies • Africa regional reports • Analyses by CGIAR centers • CCAFS regional studies • AgMIP global economic assessments Rainfed Maize (Africa) Irrigated Wheat (S. Asia) Rainfed Rice (S. + SE. Asia) Rainfed Potato (Asia) Rainfed Sorghum (Africa + India) Rainfed Groundnut (Africa + SE Asia) Rainfed Cassava (E. + S. + SE. Asia) 3. Improved assessments
  12. 12. 4. Informing decision making • CGIAR centers • CGIAR Research Programs • National partners • Regional organizations • International organizations and donors
  13. 13. The CGIAR Research Agenda Reduced Poverty Improved food and nutrition security for health Improved natural resource systems and ecosystem services Increased resilience of the poor to climate change and other shocks Enhanced smallholder market access Increased incomes and employment Increased productivity Improved diets for poor and vulnerable people Improved food safety Improved human and animal health through better agricultural practices Natural capital enhanced and protected, especially from climate change Enhanced benefit from ecosystem goods and services More sustainably managed agro- ecosystems System Level Outcomes (SLOs) and Intermediate Development Objectives (IDOs)
  14. 14. Improvements currently under way • Livestock and fish • Nutrition and health • Variability • Poverty • Land use • Environmental impacts
  15. 15. Concluding thoughts • Biophysical and economic effects • Complexity and transparency • Priority setting in the CGIAR • Institutional factors • Scale of analysis and decision making • Quantitative and qualitative approaches • Expectations
  16. 16. Thank you k.wiebe@cgiar.org

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