This document provides 10 predictions for politics, society, and the economy in Australia and New Zealand in 2014 from SenateSHJ. Key predictions include: 1) All issues will become increasingly politicized. 2) Citizens will have a more active role in the news cycle through social media. 3) Privacy issues will be reexamined in light of government surveillance programs and the role of data collection.

1. A year of politics,
privacy and morality
SenateSHJ’s top 10
predictions for 2014
presented by
SenateSHJ

2. 1. You name it, in 2014 they’ll make it political
You name it, they’ll make it political in 2014.
SenateSHJ - grounded in smart thinking | Tipping Points | November 2013

3. In Australia
• Tony Abbott and the Liberals will be under pressure to make good on
their election promises – whilst contending with the arrival of micro
parties in the Senate.
• The rise of community-based campaigns via social media, for example:
Get Up and Destroy the Joint means there will be more campaigning on
issues independent of political parties.
• Tony Abbott’s controversial Commission of Audit is due to present its
findings in March, with major changes likely in social welfare.
And it’s election year in New Zealand. Will it be Key or Cunliffe?
• Expect a convoluted and complicated political battle, particularly amongst
the minor parties.
• Politicians will jostle business, social and environmental issues, as much
as they will jostle each other.
• The false choice between prosperity and the environment will again be
offered, with more emotion than fact ruling the debate.
• Issues around economic development will see renewed political attention
on the regions where the conversation will play out.
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4. 2. The new media hero will be you
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5. • Social media will continue to empower citizens and contribute to
mainstream media content.
• There will be even greater public participation in the news cycle as a
result: we will contribute to the news rather than passively consume it.
• Traditional media outlets will rely more and more on this participation, as
budgets are stretched.
• Now anyone with an internet connection can set themselves up as
journalist and publisher – but as more people realise this, and the media
environment becomes more cluttered, only the genuinely good will cut
through.
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6. 3. Big brother will be sent to the naughty corner
SenateSHJ - grounded in smart thinking | Tipping Points | November 2013

7. • This year, we will begin to seriously question whether we are willing to
trade our privacy for our digital participation.
• We will question the role of Big Data in our lives – while still enjoying the
benefits of better products and services that data mining brings.
• At a governmental level, repercussions of the Five Eyes spying scandal
will continue to be felt and this will make us more suspicious of
government – both our own and others.
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8. 4. Social celebrity will square up against social values
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9. • Our increased participation through online media - at the cost of our
privacy - has made sending, receiving and sharing explicit material
easier than ever.
• With hyper-sexualised entertainment the norm, more (and younger)
people are being exposed to media which challenges traditional
social values.
• Scandals in 2013 (think Harry Goodman in Australia and Roast
Busters in New Zealand) raised questions about how we interact as
people, and what values we’re teaching our young.
• We will ask more questions this year about the role of authorities,
and of communities, in protecting people.
• New Zealand’s Harmful Digital Communications Bill demonstrates
that the tide is turning – this year we will take collective
responsibility for protecting vulnerable people online.
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10. 5. Journalists will step down off the fence
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11. • Boundaries between neutrality and advocacy are blurring, and
mainstream journalists will increasingly contribute their own opinions,
hopefully not at the expense of balance and fact.
• With so much choice, people don’t just want the news: they want to
choose how it’s told to them, and by whom.
• In 2014, we will see more blogging, more editorialising and more
journalists trying to morph into thinking celebrities.
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12. 6. Urban migration does a u-turn
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13. • Values are high on the agenda in 2014 as people yearn for, and create,
stronger connections with their local communities.
• This will hasten the movement towards doing business, and living life, the
traditional way (for example, locavores and community co-ops).
• Attitudes towards rural living will also change as people more
successfully combine pastoral existence with a rewarding career.
• This will contribute to a renaissance of the regions – provided big
business rises to the challenge of providing remote work opportunities.
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14. 7. Our health storm is gathering clouds
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15. • The impact of the obesity, respiratory and health disease troika is no
longer just around the corner: in 2014, it’s knocking on the door.
• The urgency behind preventative health and individual responsibility
messages will increase.
• Governments may even resort to legislative measures. But is it too late?
• Increased health spending will be required, with more lobbying for health
dollars from patient and consumer advocacy groups.
• Securing funding for pharmaceutical products via the Pharmaceutical
Benefits Scheme (PBS) in Australia will continue to be a challenging and
prolonged process.
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16. 8. Housing (un)affordability will continue to hurt
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17. • Business confidence is up, but so are house prices.
• Property prices in the big cities are putting massive pressure on people
and families.
• The social effects of prohibitively expensive housing will continue to be
felt in 2014, as will the impact of minimum house deposit rules in New
Zealand.
• The high cost of living in the city may be another reason people exit to the
regions, where the living is supposedly easier.
• But will there be the jobs to support this shift?
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18. 9. The public service will live up to its name
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19. • There will be a concerted effort by the public sector to reduce red tape,
invest and be more attuned to the private sector – and to the public.
• In Australia, this will mean government departments are ‘open for
business’.
• In New Zealand, this will lead to a more efficient and accessible public
service, with more departments opting to digitise and collaborate more.
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20. 10. Prosperity will be explored
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21. • As the exploration and resources boom in Australia gently eases, New
Zealand asks whether it will allow itself a boom at all.
• Expect more (and more heated) debate and protest against exploration in
New Zealand, especially with a resurgent New Zealand Green Party.
• Meanwhile, Australia will be looking more at foreign investment and new
partnerships to top up the bank account.
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22. To learn more about SenateSHJ, please visit www.senateshj.com
Australia
New Zealand
Sydney
Auckland
Nerida Thorburn, GM and Partner
P + 61 2 9256 9700
Level 3, 63 York Street
Sydney, NSW 2000
Kim Palsenbarg, GM and Partner
P + 64 9 353 6622
Annex Level 2
41 Shortland Street
Auckland 1010
Melbourne
Wellington
Angela Scaffidi, Partner
+ 61 3 8643 7900
Level 16, 330 Collins Street
Melbourne, Victoria 3000
Tracey Bridges, GM and Partner
P + 64 4 471 5372
Level 3, Dimension Data House
99 - 105 Customhouse Quay
Wellington 6011
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