[MobileMonday Switzerland #4 : Big Trends for mobile in 2009] From Claude Florin http://cflorin.blogspot.com/

1. Mobile Monday Switzerland #4 :
Big Trends in Mobile in 2009
Claude Florin
by FredrikN/ Flickr © all rights reserved.

2. Mobile trends
1. User experience will drive
business
2. Personalization and user
analytics become a priority
3. Cloud computing will
impact service infrastructure
4. Device innovation and
fragmentation will increase
5. MNOs will consolidate or
specialize towards services

3. User experience will drive business
VC investment in Global Venture Capital will increase
applications Mobile Financing
$5.4B $6.4B $5.1B $3.6B
100%
MNOs
80%
Semiconductor
ollars Inve d
60%
ste
Enterprise
Infrastructure 40%
D
Device
Government application
MNO
20%
Enterprise application
infrastructure
Consumer application
0%
2005 2006 2007 2008
Application as % of
12.1% 17.9% 16.3% 23.0%
Total
Consumer Application2.6% 3.6% 7.9% 13.7%
as % of Total
Sources: Rutberg & Co. Wireless Industry Newsletter, Dec ’08; Bain capital venture

4. Mobile trends
1. User experience will drive
business
2. Personalization and user
analytics become a priority
3. Cloud computing will
impact service infrastructure
4. Device innovation and
fragmentation will increase
5. MNOs will consolidate or
specialize towards services

5. Personalization and user analytics
Advertising revenue trends
EMEA Revenues WW Telecom + Revenue Advertising spending
100% B$ 6 months budget Change
3000
Online 68%
80%
Mobile 51%
Cable TV 27%
60%
2000
Magazines 18%
Outdoor 17%
40% Broadcast TV 16%
1000
Radio 16%
20% Local 11%
newspapers
National 9%
newspapers
0
0% 2010
Revenue EBITDA
On-line advertising
Telecom Retail Devices Advertising
Content Advertising Telecoms
Source : ADL / Exane + STL, Datamonitor, Zenith Opmedia; Advertiser Perceptions (executives survey) 2008.

6. Personalization and user analytics
Exposing user data securely
Opening to Application
applications requests
Access control
Abstraction of user
identity data Identity broker
Abstraction
Real-time access to
user subscriber data
HLR LDAP CRM Presence Network
bases
MS
External
HSS XDMS Exchange Location RDBMS
sources

7. Mobile trends
1. User experience will drive
business
2. Personalization and user
analytics become a priority
3. Cloud computing will
impact service infrastructure
4. Device innovation and
fragmentation will increase
5. MNOs will consolidate or
specialize towards services

8. Cloud computing service infrastructure
Web 2.0 is a state of mind and a new business models
…when you can get
Why pay?... …that are better
services for free…
Telephony ~$50 Free PC-to-PC voice & video
per month calls
Directory $1 Search by category, fully
assistance per use automated, free text
messages
Storage ~$100 Unlimited free storage for
hard drive email, contacts & calendar
Intuitive user interface
~$300 Users collaborate, develop
Software
documents and
and collaboration presentations on the web

9. Mobile trends
1. User experience will drive
business
2. Personalization and user
analytics become a priority
3. Cloud computing will
impact service infrastructure
4. Device innovation and
fragmentation will increase
5. MNOs will consolidate or
specialize towards services

10. Device software fragmentation
Network / IR SW
Tools and Content delivery :
platforms browse, buy,
for content, create, share,
UI, services services
~5%
n
atio
etiz
OEM SW revenue on Usage service revenue
M
ar
W
Handset Embedded SW
software User generated content :
stack, AEE messages, photos, videos,
0.1-2$/unit preferences
ID
Source : Vision mobile ttp://www.visionmobile.com/rsc/researchreports/mobile-megatrends-2008-(visionmobile).pdf

11. Mobile trends
1. User experience will drive
business
2. Personalization and user
analytics become a priority
3. Cloud computing will
impact service infrastructure
4. Device innovation and
fragmentation will increase
5. MNOs will consolidate or
specialize towards services

12. MNOs will consolidate or specialize
Consolidating into traffic pipes or specializing in service
80
80.00%
70
Consolidating from 7 to 4
operators/country in EMEA
60 60.00%
50
40.00%
40
20.00%
30
20 0.00%
s
rs
t
ity
es
y
g
en
ce
rt
10
ne
in
ic
tiv
Pa
m
ur
is
rv
rt
ec
rt
in
so
pa
se
d
ve
ta
nn
3r
re
r
IT
al
Ad
te
Co
al
rn
0 En
rn
te
te
Ex
In
ca
TI
m
N
FT
ne
BT
AG
KP
co
ni
fo
Partnership innovation
DT
fo
is s
da
le
Sw
Vo
3rd party enablers innovation
Te
Industry model innovation
Mobile Fixed
Source : ADL/Exane, 2008 Source : Economist Intelligence unit N=173