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UNITED NATIONS
UNIVERSITY
Institute for Environment
and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
Building climate change resilience in mountains: evidence
from Bhutan, Guatemala, Nepal, Peru and Tanzania

Dr. Koko Warne...
Presentation outline

1. Evidence of climate change-related loss and damage
when people face constraints and limits to ada...
Loss and damage results in Bhutan

The costs of adaptation in Punakha District
 Climatic stressor: Changing monsoon patte...
Loss and damage results in Nepal

Preventive and coping measures not enough to avoid
loss and damage from flooding in Uday...
Where the Rain Falls:
Rainfall Variability, Food and
Livelihood Security, and Migration
CAR
Results of case studies in mountains
Research site

Main Findings

Guatemala Western
Highlands (Cabricán
Municipality)

• ...
Results of case studies in mountains
Research site

Main Findings

Peru Central Highlands
(Huancayo Province)

• Altitude ...
Glacier recession and “peak water“ in
the Cordillera Blanca, Peru
Basin level
versus
sub-catchment level

(Bury et al. 2012)
Nearly 100% of randomly
sampled households in the valley
reported glacier recession,
changing precipitation patterns,
and ...
Different demographic structure in phase 4
watersheds
Thank you.
warner@ehs.unu.edu
wrathall@ehs.unu.edu
www.ehs.unu.edu
http://wheretherainfalls.org
http://lossanddamage.net
Building climate change resilience in mountains: evidence from Bhutan, Guatemala, Nepal, Peru and Tanzania
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Building climate change resilience in mountains: evidence from Bhutan, Guatemala, Nepal, Peru and Tanzania

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This presentation by Dr Koko Warner shows focuses on 3 main points:
1. Evidence of climate change-related loss and damage when people face constraints and limits to adaptation and empirical results from Bhutan and Nepal
2. Rainfall variability, food and livelihood security and migration: “Where the Rain Falls” (Rainfalls) Project and empirical results from Guatemala, Peru and Tanzania
3. Conclusions and reflections for policymakers

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Building climate change resilience in mountains: evidence from Bhutan, Guatemala, Nepal, Peru and Tanzania

  1. 1. UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS)
  2. 2. Building climate change resilience in mountains: evidence from Bhutan, Guatemala, Nepal, Peru and Tanzania Dr. Koko Warner Section Head Environmental Migration, Social Resilience, and Adaptation (EMSVA) United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) warner@ehs.unu.edu www.ehs.unu.edu Building Climate Change Resilience in Mountains - Global Landscapes Forum session Warsaw, Saturday 16 November 2013
  3. 3. Presentation outline 1. Evidence of climate change-related loss and damage when people face constraints and limits to adaptation and empirical results from Bhutan and Nepal 2. Rainfall variability, food and livelihood security and migration: “Where the Rain Falls” (Rainfalls) Project and empirical results from Guatemala, Peru and Tanzania 3. Conclusions and reflections for policymakers
  4. 4. Loss and damage results in Bhutan The costs of adaptation in Punakha District  Climatic stressor: Changing monsoon patterns: Less rainfall and later onset  Impact on livelihoods: Reduced water availability for rice cultivation: impact on food security and income  Adaptation: Adjustments to irrigation practices and access to water, changes in crop mix, from two to one harvest a year, buying pumps  Loss and Damage: For 87% of survey respondents, the measures are not enough and/or entail extra costs that could not be regained
  5. 5. Loss and damage results in Nepal Preventive and coping measures not enough to avoid loss and damage from flooding in Udayapur District  Climatic stressor: Increasingly severe flood events  Impact on livelihoods: Crops washed away, damage to houses and properties, high food prices in the aftermath of floods  Coping / adaptation: Pro-active and reactive; individual and collective. Examples: construction of physical barriers; livelihood diversification; sale of assets to buy food.  Loss and Damage:  For 77% of survey respondents, the measures were not enough;  Main adaptation constraint; lack of financial resources  Much time and efforts spent on adaptation measures
  6. 6. Where the Rain Falls: Rainfall Variability, Food and Livelihood Security, and Migration CAR
  7. 7. Results of case studies in mountains Research site Main Findings Guatemala Western Highlands (Cabricán Municipality) • Populations risk becoming trapped : • Profitability of the main livelihood diversification opportunity (weaving) is decreasing • Migration to the US (main migration destination) is becoming too expensive and risky • Labour demand in the Southern Coastline (second main migration destination) is decreasing Northern Tanzania (Same District, Kilimanjaro Region) • Altitude matters: • Human mobility less in highlands (higher precipitation and remoteness) as compared to lowlands (dryer and closeness to cities). • Other intervening factors affecting human mobility along different altitudes (profession, age, gender, education) The key to climate change resilience in mountains is access to livelihood diversification opportunities (both in situ and through migration)
  8. 8. Results of case studies in mountains Research site Main Findings Peru Central Highlands (Huancayo Province) • Altitude and access to urban economic opportunities shape livelihood options and migration strategies (daily mobility to nearby city of Huancayo at lower altitude, long-term migration at higher altitude) • Even in complex rural-urban livelihoods systems, climatic and environmental conditions are still relevant for household resilience The key to climate change resilience in mountains is access to livelihood diversification opportunities (both in situ and through migration)
  9. 9. Glacier recession and “peak water“ in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru
  10. 10. Basin level versus sub-catchment level (Bury et al. 2012)
  11. 11. Nearly 100% of randomly sampled households in the valley reported glacier recession, changing precipitation patterns, and drying and disappearing water sources (Bury 2011). 1982 1987 1997 *Switch from glacier-fed to rainfed agriculture 2004
  12. 12. Different demographic structure in phase 4 watersheds
  13. 13. Thank you. warner@ehs.unu.edu wrathall@ehs.unu.edu www.ehs.unu.edu http://wheretherainfalls.org http://lossanddamage.net

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