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Transforming REDD+ lessons learned and way forward

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Presentation by Christopher Martius on April 5, 2019 at Workshop in Ethiopia ("Forests and climate change: research results and implications for REDD+ and forest governance in Ethiopia")

Publié dans : Environnement
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Transforming REDD+ lessons learned and way forward

  1. 1. TRANSFORMING REDD+ LESSONS LEARNED AND WAY FORWARD Christopher Martius, Arild Angelsen, Stibniati Atmadja, Niki de Sy, Thu Thuy Pham, Anne Larson, Amy Duchelle c.martius@cgiar.org Addis Ababa, 5 April 2019
  2. 2. What is in this talk? 1. Global role of forests in mitigating climate change 2. Global Comparative Study on REDD+ 3. REDD+ as a Theory of Change: What is missing? 4. Policy Network Analysis - Indonesia example 5. Summarizing REDD+ at the global level
  3. 3. What is in this talk? 1. Global role of forests in mitigating climate change 2. Global Comparative Study on REDD+ 3. REDD+ as a Theory of Change: What is missing? 4. Policy Network Analysis - Indonesia example 5. Summarizing REDD+ at the global level
  4. 4. UNEP: The Emissions Gap Report 2016
  5. 5. Climate change context • IPCC 1.5 degree report: immense and urgent challenges and risks related to climate change • a temperature rise of 2.0 °C is likely Forestry: • huge expectations globally - is the only carbon sink • Bonn Challenge 350 million ha ecosystem restoration until 2030 • But costs and area demand are huge • South Korea: restored 2 million ha of forest at cost of 3 billion $ • IPCC 1.5° report: For BECCS and afforestation together, land demand in 2100 is ca. 800-1800 million hectares, mainly converted from pasture land  What role can forestry realistically play?
  6. 6. Climate change mitigation role of afforestation Relatively low potential but lowest costs 6 IPCC1.5degreereport,chapter4 Direct air capture and carbon storage Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage Afforestation
  7. 7. http://redd.unfccc.int/uploads/2_94_redd_20150804_unredd_technical_considerations_frel_under_unfccc_en.pdf The four key elements of REDD+ and related UNFCCC DecisionsThe five activities that comprise REDD+ 1. Reducing emissions from deforestation 2. Reducing emissions from forest degradation 3. Conservation of forest carbon stocks 4. Sustainable management of forests 5. Enhancement of forest carbon stocks Decision 1/CP.16, par. 70 Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation
  8. 8. What is in this talk? 1. Global role of forests in mitigating climate change 2. Global Comparative Study on REDD+ 3. REDD+ as a Theory of Change: What is missing? 4. Policy Network Analysis - Indonesia example 5. Summarizing REDD+ at the global level
  9. 9. CIFOR’s Global Comparative Study of REDD+ • To support REDD+ policy arenas and practitioner communities with • information • analysis • tools • to ensure 3E+ outcomes for REDD+: • effectiveness (to reach C and non-C benefits) • (cost-) efficiency • equity • + co-benefits • towards transformational change Effective REDD+ policy National and global policies, measures and commitments REDD+ performance Rigorous assessment in 6 countries, 23 sites, 150 villages, 4,000+ households; global overview Integrating REDD+ in the landscape Multilevel governance, stakeholder platforms, development Monitoring, Measuring, Reporting and Verification Baslines, reference levels, drivers, capacity development Partnerengagementanddissemination 2009 - 2020
  10. 10. GCS REDD output & results: publications, websites… + Factsheets: http://www.cifor.org/gcs/publications/factsheets/ + REDD+ legal studies: http://www.cifor.org/gcs/publications/redd-legal-studies/ + Safeguards: http://www.cifor.org/gcs/publications/redd-safeguards/ + over 500 scientific publications: http://www.cifor.org/gcs/publications/ (books thumbnails are hyperlinked)
  11. 11. OVERVIEW OF THE BOOK
  12. 12. What is in this talk? 1. Global role of forests in mitigating climate change 2. Global Comparative Study on REDD+ 3. REDD+ as a Theory of Change: What is missing? 4. Policy Network Analysis - Indonesia example 5. Summarizing REDD+ at the global level
  13. 13. REDD+ as a Theory of Change • A Theory of Change (ToC) is a roadmap for change o It outlines how to build a successful societal transformation o It explains how and why an initiative works o It maps a pathway from a project’s activities, via its outputs, to its outcomes and impact o It tells you where the gaps are
  14. 14. One early definition of REDD+ was… “A core idea underlying REDD+ is to make performance-based payments, that is, to pay forest owners and users to reduce emissions and increase removals. Such payment for environmental (or ecosystem) services (PES) … provides strong incentives directly to forest owners and users to manage forests better and clear less forestland. PES will fully compensate carbon rights holders that find forest conservation more lucrative than the alternatives. They simply sell forest carbon credits and less cattle, coffee, cocoa or charcoal.” Angelsen et al. (2009)
  15. 15. REDD+ as a Theory of Change I – the original idea
  16. 16. REDD+ as a Theory of Change II – the ‚official‘ set-up
  17. 17.  REDD+ misses some elements of a functional ToC • Missing components : “power” of incentives; nature and level of compensation; who the beneficiaries should be; and the extent to which offsetting should be permitted • REDD+ as practiced on the ground has evolved into a broad basket of adaptive, non-conditional activities • More clarity is needed for donor-side actions and commitments, and their role as catalysts of change through (conditional) financial support • One confusion arises when not distinguishing clearly between the objective of reduced emissions (REDD+), and the framework to achieve REDD+ • REDD+ has laudable broad objectives, but is also entangled by them, and its success depends on broad policy reform • Implementation must become more realistic and pragmatic, based on diagnosis and through evidence-based policy making
  18. 18. What is in this talk? 1. Global role of forests in mitigating climate change 2. Global Comparative Study on REDD+ 3. REDD+ as a Theory of Change: What is missing? 4. Policy Network Analysis - Indonesia example 5. Summarizing REDD+ at the global level
  19. 19. REDD+ policy (collaboration) networks: influence and coalition building in times of change Research question and hypothesis Tenure has become a central element in Indonesia’s REDD+ policymaking • But is this reflected in the REDD+ policy networks? • Can the network structure explain how tenure got high on the agenda? 2 Hypotheses: a) Actors with a rights-based approach to REDD+ gained more influence over time (higher reputation) b) Actors with a rights-based approach to REDD+ strategically build coalition with diverse and influential actors (less centrality in network)
  20. 20. Policy Network Analysis: Research Methods • Data collection in 2012 and 2015 • Identification of core organizations and policy events • expert panel (GO, Private Sector, ENGO, rights-CSO, University, international and national research) • Social organization survey • standard questionnaire to identify coalitions and network structures (stances, reputational power, info, collaboration, disagreement and financing networks) • In-depth interview with actors using open ended questions • UCINET Actors: • 2012: 102 identified, 65 responded to network survey: 64% • 2015: 130 identified, 83 responded to network survey: 62% • Overlap of 84 actors between round 1 and 2
  21. 21. FINDINGS: Influence The more often an actor is mentioned as influential, the larger the node size Network of influence 2012 2015 - AMAN among most influential actors in phase 2 - fewer government actors highly influential
  22. 22. FINDINGS: Collaboration Collaboration Network 2012 2015 - More actors in the center - Central actor such as AMAN, HUMA, FWI, Kemitraan are pushing for rights and climate justice including tenure reform - Ministry of Forests central actor, and government agencies recognizing this - But MoF also needs other organizations for REDD+ implementation
  23. 23. What is in this talk? 1. Global role of forests in mitigating climate change 2. Global Comparative Study on REDD+ 3. REDD+ as a Theory of Change: What is missing? 4. Policy Network Analysis - Indonesia example 5. Summarizing REDD+ at the global level
  24. 24. SUMMARISING REDD+ (I) Finance and building blocks • International funding (public & private) remains scarce, and demand through carbon markets is lacking • USD 1.1 – 2.7 billion/year in international REDD+ funding • Fact that REDD+ governments and communities cover many of the costs is not acknowledged • Results-based payment -REDD+’s key feature- largely untested at scale • Funding • Complex • Anecdotal evidence on the impacts of REDD+ finance on national policies
  25. 25. SUMMARISING REDD+ (II) Shaping up Positive intermediate outputs & outcomes • REDD+ helped forests gain prominence on international and some national policy agendas • 50+ countries put REDD+ in NDCs and have national REDD+ strategies • major coordination and implementation issues remain • National REDD+ initiatives improved countries’ monitoring capacities and understanding of drivers • Increased stakeholder involvement, and platforms to secure indigenous and community land rights • 350 REDD+ projects, covering 43 million ha • Jurisdictional approaches now covering 28% of tropical forests
  26. 26. SUMMARISING REDD+ (III) Modest impacts • National REDD+ policies: • most show some statistically significant reductions, but small effect size • Local REDD+ initiatives: • modest but positive outcomes for forests • Well-being impacts limited and mixed • more likely positive when incentive components are included • Similar to the micro-macro paradox of development aid • crowding out, leakage, too small
  27. 27. How can REDD+ be more effective? (I) Big and bold initiatives needed • International finance nudges …. • … but domestic incentives decide • Redesigning economics incentives for a triple win: • conserve forests • increase economic efficiency • improve government budget balance • Examples • Brazil’s drastic deforestation reduction post-2004 • India’s ecological fiscal transfers (USD 7-12 billion annually) • Ethiopia restoration plans • How can we avoid project-ification, and make REDD+ support these reforms?
  28. 28. How can REDD+ be more effective? (II) A positive, exciting narrative on forests • The iron law of climate policy (Arild Angelsen): • If a conflict climate – economic development, climate loses • Make forests part of a green/sustainable economic development strategy • Examples: • 1/5 of local income from forests (PEN study) • Forests as bio-pumps and ‘aerial rivers’
  29. 29. How can REDD+ be more effective? (III) Be brave and assess impacts • Few studies • Impact assessment is not story-telling by donors, proponents or beneficiaries … but a set of rigorous approaches; the main problem being to estimate the counterfactual • Impact assessment is not an afterthought; design and collect data from day 1 • It is risky for proponents: no control of the result and hence, verdict on your actions  We simply need to know more about what works and what doesn’t
  30. 30. Why are there not more impact assessments? 3 hypotheses People do not see the benefits? • Proponents with strong faith in own approach & success • “One can easily see if it works or not” Costs are high and the work, complex? • Data collection: baselines, controls • Need to hire experts • Randomisation of treatments is ethically problematic Risks are high? • No control of the result, and hence, the verdict • Negative assessment may jeopardize future funding
  31. 31. REDD+ as a learning experience • The question is not: “should we continue with REDD+ or not”? • But rather: “What have we learned that can make our effort to reduce forest emissions more effective, efficient and equitable?” • Both, dismissing REDD+, and telling unfounded success stories, prevent that learning • The writing of lessons learned has just begun
  32. 32. Great thanks to www.cifor.org/gcs
  33. 33. cifor.org blog.cifor.org ForestsTreesAgroforestry.org THANK YOU! www.cifor.org/gcs

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