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CIPR public affairs horizon chart

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CIPR’s Public Affairs Group have published a Horizon Scan document, exploring trends and topics likely to impact the future of working in public affairs.

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CIPR public affairs horizon chart

  1. 1. n Virtual reality surgeries n Increase in digital fraud n Regulatory tax on tech firms/platforms (will it empower Government) n Disinformation – steps to tackle it? n 5G n Gender gap importance n Decline in trust in politics and business n Increase in individualism/ self-actors n Increase in tribalism n Increase in choice n Increase in nepotism n Global connectivity n Increased use of VR n Break up of Union n An English Parliament n New emerging industries n Global economy shift from west to east n General Election n Fiscal reform (ie Barnett Formula to devolved regions) n Modernisation of mechanisms of government (Parliamentary reform) n Increase of size of state; further workload of government, more lobbying targets n Rise of cost of living/consuming n Increased wealth divide n Rise in cost of social care n Growth in social care sector n Big data n Disinformation n 5G n Privacy Intrusion n Digital lifestyles n Tech Intrusion n General Election n Labour Government – nationalisation of public services n Regional devolution (cities, mayors) n Population rise n Rise of personality politics n Increasing polarisation, changing political identities, increase in personality politics n Dominance of echo chambers – fragmentation n Me too movement continues n Backlash/violence against journalist class n New social channels – changing popularity of current channels n Hyper connected communities n Increase in importance of Influencers n Fragmentation and re- clustering of social activism n Growth and regulation of gig economy n UK economy shrinks (hits PR budgets) n Financial crash; uncertainty increases demand for PA n Call for risk taking, more “bombastic” corporate comms n Growth of digital industry as major lobbying group n Climate change changing consumer behaviour n Financial impact of general election n No Deal Brexit – doom or boom? • House price crash n Big Data n Greater access to politicians by constituents and voters n Need for lobbyists? Can business leaders interact directly with politicians via new digital media platforms n Politicisa­ tion of civil service n Change in Government – possible shift from capitalism if Labour n Greater access to politicians by constituents and voters n Change in lobbying regulation n Impact of automation on lobbying n Develop­ ments in big Data n Increase in number of political parties n Aging population n Increase in loneliness and isolation n Increase in immigration and demographic tensions persisting n Decline in value of privacy and data protection to individuals n Connect­ ivity in transport/ infrastructure (Crossrail/ HS2) n More cities and mega cities n UK less London centric n Retirement age rises (75+) n MPs increasingly consulting constituents; more transparency n Restruc­ ture of MP roles (2 per constituency; 1 local / 1 Parlia­ mentary) n End of cash n Link between virtue and data – (Chinese social credit) n De-genderisatinn n Fight back against misinformation n Impersonalisation of healthcare n Increase in role of citizen n Breakdown of Party system n Closer alignment with USA (51st State) n Monitored staff and work environments n Global decision making n Changes in work/life balancen Change in diet with alternative find sources (e.g. insects) n Increase in urbanisation n Aging populationn Euthanasia – life planning n Reproduc­ tion rates decline n Society more at ease with automation n Capitalism becomes ‘lighter’ n Embracing virtual reality n Major shift in skills – new digital skills highly valuable. Repetitive task jobs less valuable n Social Shockwave – demand for purpose driven businesses n Changing nature of work – blurring of work/life balance n 24/7 economy and businesses n Rise of globally focused politics/ decision making (ie on environment) n Networked individuals v the digitally dispossessed n Internet of things n Big data increasingly used in decision making on policy/politics n Rise of Republicanism n Migration shift – south to north n Rebranding of Britain to remove the “Great” n Decline in natural resources n Rise in alternative foods n Rise in environmental consciousness n Increase in demand for technical education n Changing world of work n Increase in globalisation n Boom period (?) n Nature of work changes due to AI n Rapid deregulation n ‘High skill’ gig economy leading to de-skilling HORIZON ONE (TO END OF 2020) HORIZON TWO (2021-2023) HORIZON THREE (2024-2030) HORIZON FOUR (BEYOND 2030) SOCIAL POLITICALTECHNOLOGICAL PUBLIC AFFAIRS HORIZON SCAN ECONOMIC