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Restructuring monocities as a lever of
paradigm shift towards iconomics for
Russian economy
Клод Рошке
Профевор университе...
Summary
What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why
Russian monocities may not
Physics of city
What the smart cit...
Summary
What kind of city can pretend to be smart and
why Russian monocities may not
Physics of city
What the smart cit...
Top down mono functional city
29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
Monociti...
Monocities= specialization in decreasing returns activities
29/12/2016
Decreasing returns due to
• mono specialization in ...
What a smart city can’t be
 A collection of « smarties »
 A techno centric city
 A city without past
 = EU ideology!
...
Summary
What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why
Russian monocities may not
Physics of the city
What the smart...
Cities scaling laws
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
Densité
Potentiel...
Combining these laws:
12/29/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
Size x Number o...
Good and bad complexity
29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
At a certain p...
A (really) smart city is an
emerging ecosystem
 Smart city framework= A great number of interactions between people x con...
What modeling means?
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
12
Reality
Model...
A smart city is an integration of two kinds of
systems
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Chang...
Summary
What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why
Russian monocities may not
Physics of city
What does the smar...
Middle age cities were smart: organic development,
common good, synergies between economic activities
29/12/2016Claude Roc...
Direct democracy was at the root of the
city life and its organic evolution
29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions i...
Middle Age cities grew on an organic
planning basis
« Organic planning does not begin with a
preconceived goal; it moves ...
From organic growth to top-
down planning
12/29/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterin...
Summary
What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why
Russian monocities may not
Physics of city
What does the smar...
Urban dynamics: from neo cybernetics to
autopoesis
First order cybernetics (Forrester):
The city as a self regulating sy...
A quasi zero order cybernetics unable to self
regulate
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Chang...
First order cybernetics city
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
The myth...
Autopoeisis: Why and How?
An autopoeitic system is “a network of processes of
production (transformation and destruction)...
Autopoeisis: Why and How?
Autopoeisis makes the system able to face with the
rapid changing of the environment:
“This ge...
Autopeoietic system integration works bottom-up based on
“ordinary actions of the people”
29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Rus...
The necessity of an evolutionary dynamics
29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinb...
Summary
What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why
Russian monocities may not
Physics of city
What does the smar...
Methodology : Strategic Analysis
29/12/2016
28
Why building a city & what are
the strategic goals? Who are
the stakeholder...
Why do we need strong citizen based
interactions within a system? (1)
 Economy:
 An economic structure based on synergie...
Why do we need strong citizen based
interactions within a system? (2)
 Resilience:
 A smart city is a highly internally ...
New techniques arise
29/12/2016
Design thinking
(Stanford, Ecole
des Ponts)
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focu...
Why do we need strong citizen based
interactions within a system? (3)
Citizen is at the interface of technological device...
Direct democracy has a strong record in the
management of cities and human communities as
complex systems
29/12/2016
Claud...
Bad example: The Globalized city
29/12/2016
34
City centerSuburbPeriphery Suburb Periphery
Incomesinequality
Low cost
immi...
The political divide between globalized cities
and peripheries
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus ...
The false green cities
29/12/2016
36
Integrating imported
pollution, energy waste….
produced by a dysfunctional
ecosystem...
The perfectly integrated smart city: Singapore
29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekat...
Singapore vs. Norilsk
12/29/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
38
Common featur...
New paradigms in public decision making
 Polycentric governance (Ostrom): deciding in small units on a large
scale
 Bott...
A paradoxical research question:
Can we conceive the gov’t of a city that should
not need a government?
 At date, if we a...
Summary
What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why
Russian monocities may not
Physics of city
What does the smar...
Smart cities and paradigm shift in Russia towards iconomy
29/12/2016
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Ch...
Business model transition
29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
43
Present R...
Merci!
29/12/2016 44
44
Thank you!
Спасибо
Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
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Restructuring monocities as a lever of paradigm shift towards iconomics for Russian economy

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Russian regions in the focus of change: intervention Pr Claude Rochet in the forum held in Yekaterinburg, Nov 2016
Клод Рошке Профевор университет париж сакле

Restructuring monocities as a lever of paradigm shift towards iconomics for Russian economy

  1. 1. Restructuring monocities as a lever of paradigm shift towards iconomics for Russian economy Клод Рошке Профевор университет париж сакле Claude Rochet Professeur des universités Chercheur associé LAREQUOI Université de Paris Saclay Claude.rochet@univ-amu.fr
  2. 2. Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What the smart cities from the past can teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 2
  3. 3. Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What the smart cities from the past can teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 3
  4. 4. Top down mono functional city 29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg Monocities have turned to be an obstacle to growth in Russia, representing up to 31% GDP. A US$ 525 million cost for the federal Govt each year 4 Monocities are the legacy of the paradigm of the IInd industrial revolution based on mass and standardized production. Iconomics is the new paradigm based on information techs. Togliatti (Russia):
  5. 5. Monocities= specialization in decreasing returns activities 29/12/2016 Decreasing returns due to • mono specialization in primary activities • localization in remote places • No synergies between activities • 335 mono goroda (31% of towns) • 16 Mon hab. (25% urban pop.) • Urbanisation rate: 75% Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 5
  6. 6. What a smart city can’t be  A collection of « smarties »  A techno centric city  A city without past  = EU ideology!  A deterministic system 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg Ont the contrary Smart city = Integrated complex system 6
  7. 7. Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not Physics of the city What the smart cities from the past can teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 7
  8. 8. Cities scaling laws 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg Densité Potentiel d’interconnexions Y=x2 Metcalfe law But….. Distance Interconnexionsréelles Von Thünen Tobler law Externalités+et_ Taille But….. Taille Nombredevilles Marshall West Bettencourt law Zipf law 8
  9. 9. Combining these laws: 12/29/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg Size x Number of cities Connectionsxwealth New town Clustering medium size cities New town Defining the perimeter and the « in and out » interrelations of the system is a key issue in cities 'system design 9
  10. 10. Good and bad complexity 29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg At a certain point growing complexity produces more negative than positive externalities and become unmonitorable Bad complexity Good complexity Growing size Growingcomplexity E. g. Detroit (USA), Russian monocities… 10
  11. 11. A (really) smart city is an emerging ecosystem  Smart city framework= A great number of interactions between people x connected objects whose quantity and speed is in dramatic increase at date.  The behavior of a system is predictable when the sequence of transitions from one state to another can be described.  Emergence takes place when the space of possible states or rules of transitions changes: the city can’t be described by the model that described it until then. (Heylighen & Joslyn 1991) : The behavior is no longer predictable  Modeling emergence implies: 1. Carrying on a watch of all kinds of as well exogenous (e.g. human behavior) as endogenous (e.g. disruptive technology) changes. 2. Mapping the properties, desirable an undesirable, the system can take. 3. The values attached to theses properties in a precise context. 4. Defining a meta system which variety could monitor the growth of complexity. 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 11
  12. 12. What modeling means? 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 12 Reality Model = abstract representation of perceived reality Human constructed reality Emergence Transition Evolutionary model
  13. 13. A smart city is an integration of two kinds of systems 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg Hard systems may be modeled thanks to the laws of physics (conservative systems) Soft systems can’t be modeled with the laws of physics (dissipative systems) - Social sciences - Big data - Autopoeisis - Multi-agents modeling The key of the success is here… … while business is there Politics must prevail on a bottom up basis 13
  14. 14. Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What does the smart cities from the past teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 14
  15. 15. Middle age cities were smart: organic development, common good, synergies between economic activities 29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg Common good Vivere politico Economic welfare Pivate good 15
  16. 16. Direct democracy was at the root of the city life and its organic evolution 29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 16 A russian born institution Novogorod veche: Rule by popular assembly Новгоро́дская респу́блика вече
  17. 17. Middle Age cities grew on an organic planning basis « Organic planning does not begin with a preconceived goal; it moves from need to need, from opportunity to opportunity, in a series of adaptations that themselves become increasingly coherent and purposeful, so that they generate a complex final design, hardly less unified than a pre-formed geometric pattern. » 12/29/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 17 Coherence without the need of a detailed plan!
  18. 18. From organic growth to top- down planning 12/29/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 18 Екатеринбург was founded top down in 1723 to be a mono industry city. Modern cities (from XVI° onward) were designed through detailed plans. The political associated ideal was autocracy (Vasily Tatishchev). The opposite of the organic grown-up middle-age city!
  19. 19. Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What does the smart cities from the past teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 19
  20. 20. Urban dynamics: from neo cybernetics to autopoesis First order cybernetics (Forrester): The city as a self regulating system by single feedback loop… ... Or a super command and control machinery (Rio) The 2nd order of cybernetics includes autopoeisis of human dissipative systems The complexity of the city is a combination of several laws and not top-down predictable There is a positive correlation between growth of the city size and its complexity.... ... But there is a good and a bad complexity 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 20
  21. 21. A quasi zero order cybernetics unable to self regulate 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 21 Paris métro….
  22. 22. First order cybernetics city 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg The myth of the super mind and perfect control IBM at Rio do Janeiro The big brother like city 22
  23. 23. Autopoeisis: Why and How? An autopoeitic system is “a network of processes of production (transformation and destruction) of components which: (i) through their interactions and transformations continuously regenerate and realize the network of processes that produced them; and (ii) constitute it as a concrete unity in space in which they (the components) exist by specifying the topological domain of its realization as such a network.” H. Maturana Autopoeisis is a property of human dissipative system: strong entropy and correlative capabilities to reproduce itself permanently thanks to its internal interactions 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 23
  24. 24. Autopoeisis: Why and How? Autopoeisis makes the system able to face with the rapid changing of the environment: “This generalized view of autopoiesis considers systems as self-producing not in terms of their physical components, but in terms of its organization, which can be measured in terms of information and complexity. In other words, we can describe autopoietic systems as those producing more of their own complexity than the one produced by their environment". C. Gershenson 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 24
  25. 25. Autopeoietic system integration works bottom-up based on “ordinary actions of the people” 29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg NO! An evolutionary process Integration process is bottom-up… … based on ordinary interactions  We must understand how ordinary people behave  Q: Is there an architect with a master plan? 25
  26. 26. The necessity of an evolutionary dynamics 29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 26 Emergence of the city pattern Experiencing autopoeitic properties Organic complexity growth Example of impact of an exogenous/endogenous change: The propagation of the electric vehicle Urban Lifecycle Management
  27. 27. Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What does the smart cities from the past teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 27
  28. 28. Methodology : Strategic Analysis 29/12/2016 28 Why building a city & what are the strategic goals? Who are the stakeholders? What are the generic functions to be performed by a smart city? With which organs? Technical devices, software… With which smart people? Conception, metamodel framework, steering Subsystems and processes People and tools Why designing this ecosystem? Who will live in the city? What are its activities? How the city will be fed? Where the city is located ? (context) What are the functions to be performed to reach the goals and how do they interact? With which organs and ressources? How people will interact with the artifacts? How civic life will organize? Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg People as end-users People as citizens
  29. 29. Why do we need strong citizen based interactions within a system? (1)  Economy:  An economic structure based on synergies of economics activities is the condition to wealth creation which reinforces itself through interaction of a political power based on the Common Good (Reinert, 2006, Rochet, 2012)  FFF (Failed, Fragile and Failing states) : The missing link is related to the lack of increasing returns based on « coopetitive » diffusion of means (…) productive governance often enforces the development sustainable productive structures based usually on a participatory system.  “State failure an fragility are often preceded, or at least accompanied, by failure and fragility of cities” (Reinert & Kattel, 2009)  “The more the participatory system is closed to democracy and shared economic growth with special focus on health, education and communication infrastructure building, more quickly the divergence between countries narrows down.» (Reinert &Kattel, 2009) 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 29
  30. 30. Why do we need strong citizen based interactions within a system? (2)  Resilience:  A smart city is a highly internally connected facing with a turbulent environment, that challenges its resilience.  Strong social capabilities enforces the autopoeitic properties of the system, and consequently its resilience.  E.g. Christchurch (NZ) 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 26/01/2016 30
  31. 31. New techniques arise 29/12/2016 Design thinking (Stanford, Ecole des Ponts) Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 31
  32. 32. Why do we need strong citizen based interactions within a system? (3) Citizen is at the interface of technological devices which consume and produce data (e.g. The smart phone) The frontier between production and consumption is blurred more than in other cases of information economy (McLuhan): the prosumer. In a rapid innovative system the citizen is a lead user of the innovation process (Von Hippel). The power of these technical systems requires strong political control to be both fully efficient and not becoming the level of a totalitarian system (Simondon). 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 32
  33. 33. Direct democracy has a strong record in the management of cities and human communities as complex systems 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg  Schumpeterian economics correlates synergies between activities, political freedom and common weal.  Traditional decision making system may help modeling a resilient human system e.g.: ongoing research project of modeling an eco-efficient drinking water network in Angola with the palaver tree. 33
  34. 34. Bad example: The Globalized city 29/12/2016 34 City centerSuburbPeriphery Suburb Periphery Incomesinequality Low cost immigrants Low cost immigrants Old medium and working class Super riches Connected upper class Communautarism and lost of urban synergies Urban poors Regional insurrection in desindustrialized periphery Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
  35. 35. The political divide between globalized cities and peripheries 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 35
  36. 36. The false green cities 29/12/2016 36 Integrating imported pollution, energy waste…. produced by a dysfunctional ecosystem Is the city really green? The worst case: Paris socio- ethnic greenwashing Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg
  37. 37. The perfectly integrated smart city: Singapore 29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 37 The man-made mechanical forest consists of 18 supertrees that act as vertical gardens, generating solar power, acting as air venting ducts for nearby conservatories, and collecting rainwater. To generate electricity, 11 of the supertrees are fitted with solar photovoltaic systems that convert sunlight into energy, which provides lighting and aids water technology within the conservatories below
  38. 38. Singapore vs. Norilsk 12/29/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 38 Common features: Unhealthy and hostile climate, no reason for existing except a political will, no natural assets, no industry, no initial social capital… Depressing monoindustry and pollution A city thought of from the beginning as a smart nation
  39. 39. New paradigms in public decision making  Polycentric governance (Ostrom): deciding in small units on a large scale  Bottom up decision processes : e.g. Michael Batty modeling decision process as a Markov chains to bring back the city in a ergodic state  Large deliberative upfront processes reduce uncertainty e.g. The Parable of the Hare and the Tortoise: Small Worlds, Diversity, and System Performance (Lazer & Friedman 2005)  « In short, cities are more like biological than mechanical systems. The rise of the sciences of complexity, which have changed the direction of system theory from top down to the bottom-up is one that treats such systems as open, based more on the product of an evolutionary process than a grand design » Michael Batty « A new Science of Cities » 2015 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 39
  40. 40. A paradoxical research question: Can we conceive the gov’t of a city that should not need a government?  At date, if we assume the benchmark of a smart city is Singapore: it’s not really a democracy.  At date, we don’t know large systems that have developed spontaneously self organizing properties .  Rules, as a genetic code of an ecosystem, are the result of a long term learning process: Cf. biomimicry  A Machiavellian approach: The Prince is to fix the good institutions from the top down giving the citizens the rights to challenge the power of the few in charge, so that top down and bottom-up converge.  We have a lot of references of direct democracy experiences, how they were born, how they died. 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 40
  41. 41. Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What does the smart cities from the past teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 41
  42. 42. Smart cities and paradigm shift in Russia towards iconomy 29/12/2016 Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 42 Training of actors, Knowledge transfer to SME Smart Cities Pilot Projects Social capabilities improvement System modeling and integration capacities Investments and reference realizations Territories development Technology transfer Absorptive capacities Organic development R&D Actions Realizations Strategic assets Autopoeisis
  43. 43. Business model transition 29/12/2016Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg 43 Present Russia Fed Gov’t 520 Mion USD Social cost of monocities Transition scenario Smartization of monocities Investments Foreign Investments + Increasing returns of smart cities Virtuous reinforcement
  44. 44. Merci! 29/12/2016 44 44 Thank you! Спасибо Claude Rochet ---- Russian Regions in the Focus of Changes - Ekaterinburg

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