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CFA Institute Research Challenge
The CFA Institute Research Challenge is a global competition that tests the equity research and valuation,
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Azusa Pacific University
Alteryx (AYX) New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Sector: Technology
Alteryx has consistently demonstrated its ability to increase its customer spending through
expansion allowing the company to have a strong competitive advantage for preventing competitors
from accessing and expanding into its current (retain) and future (expand) revenue streams. Alteryx’s
great customer service and ability to rapidly integrate its product has led to high levels of customer
retention and a strong revenue moat. However, Alteryx has had diminishing rates of new customer
growth for the past five years. As powerful low cost alternatives enter the market, smaller companies
have less of an incentive to pay for Alteryx’s relatively expensive platform. Alteryx has been turning to
larger companies which is leading to a convergence of new customers from the Forbes Global 2000
companies which constrains its future revenue growth as its competitive market space continues to
decrease.
Investment Summary
Competitive and Product Positioning
Revenue Moat and Diminishing Customer Growth
Alteryx quickly outgrew smaller companies in the data analytics market, but is now facing serious
competition from large competitors such as Microsoft, SAS, and TIBCO. As Alteryx comes into this
new level of competition, the Alteryx Platform loses most of its competitive advantages. Alteryx
believes its product is end-to-end, but it does not have as many capabilities as some of the major
competitors in the market. Alteryx is spending a decreasing fraction of its revenue on research and
development to focus on sales and marketing which represents a turn away from innovation and
toward marketing the company's existing product, making it difficult for the company to remain
competitive in a rapidly changing market.
To arrive at our “SELL” recommendation and target price of $86.97, we performed a DCF valuation.
We computed our DCF valuation model using the forecasted future revenue growth and financial
performance of Alteryx with a 3-stage growth model. This model forecasts Alteryx's financial
performance by forecasting its financials in the short-term (0-1 ½ years), medium-term (1 ½-5 ¼
years), and long-term (5 ¼-7 years). Our DCF valuation utilizes a calculated WACC of 16.26% based on
the Fama French 3-factor model and a terminal growth rate of 5.1% based on an average of the US
GDP growth rate and the data analytics industry growth rate.
DCF
We issue a SELL recommendation on Alteryx (AYX) with an intrinsic price of $86.97,
representing a downside of 37% from the February 7th, 2020 closing price of $137.68. Our
recommendation is based on our DCF model which shows that, despite having both qualitative
merits and concerns, Alteryx is overvalued.
Over-Reliance on Acquisitions
In the past three years, Alteryx relied on four different product-driven acquisitions to build its end-to-
end platform. The company’s R&D spending has contributed little to the actual development of its
product, indicating that its product growth will be hindered by the lack of availability of potential
acquisitions. Additionally, the company spends a sizable amount on R&D with an entire R&D-focused
facility in Colorado, yet this spending is not resulting in any material gains for the company’s product.
Inorganic growth exposes the company to the potential risk that the technologies acquired will not
integrate well with the existing platform.
Alteryx holds $642M in cash and $231.9M in short term debt as of Q3 2019. The company may
deploy this capital for growth strategies such as acquisitions, sales and marketing, and research and
development. The company acquired this cash through senior convertible notes at low interest rates
of .5% and 1% for different note maturities. Alteryx’s capital structure is 69% liabilities and 31%
equity. The company is leveraging debt to increase capital through the sale of 2023, 2024, and 2026
convertible senior notes, amounting to $1.03B.
Capital for Growth
Source: Yahoo Finance
Source: Team Analysis
Recommendation: SELL Closing Price (Feb 7, 2020): $137.68 Target Price: $86.97 (37% Downside)
Source: Company Filings, Team Analysis
The Alteryx Platform is a subscription-based software consisting of four elements that integrate
to form an end-to-end data analytics solution for customers. Alteryx’s software is designed to be
easy to use without extensive data science knowledge or any programming experience
(Appendix:B1).
Alteryx Designer is the core software solution and all of Alteryx’s customers own at least one
seat. Each seat has a list price of $5,195. Designer allows users to prepare, combine, analyze,
predict, and visualize data in a code environment or a code-free, drag-and-drop environment.
Designer offers the ability to generate repeatable workflows simplifying the spreadsheet
creation process to expedite routine data analytics.
Alteryx Server is an upgrade option and is recommended to companies once they have 8-12
seats for Designer for a company-wide annual fee of $58,500. Server transitions the platform
from an individual software on a single desktop (Designer) to a secure on-premise computer
or 3rd party cloud. The 24/7 web-based environment allows for scheduling fully automatable
routine workflows and analytics, sharing and publication of analytics between members of the
organization, and corporate governance of data all with the advantage of Alteryx’s patented
systems that are optimized for big data.
Alteryx Connect is available to companies for $39,900 per year as an extension to Alteryx
Server. Connect aggregates data from all employees to create an organization-specific
glossary that allows every employee to collaborate with any workflow, call previously created
workflows by others in the organization, and review other employees’ data sources. Alteryx
Connect was developed through the 2017 acquisition of Semanta.
Alteryx Promote is the fourth aspect of the Alteryx Platform. Promote is part of the overall
product which deploys predictive models and customer relationship management
applications. Promote allows the IT department to add R and Python code to customize
workflows.
Every customer has either a one-year or three-year subscription with Alteryx Designer, and roughly
half of them have moved into the Server and Connect contracts.
Azusa Pacific University l 2
Business Description
Product: The Alteryx Platform
Alteryx Incorporated (NYSE: AYX) was co-founded in 1997 by the current CEO Dean Stoecker as a
spatial analytics company. In 2015, Alteryx transitioned its business focus from spatial analytics to
data analytics, broadening its target market to firms in every sector. The stock’s offering price was
$14 per share at IPO on March 24th, 2017. Alteryx is headquartered in Irvine, California where it
recently signed a new lease for an office space near the Spectrum Center. This location is one of
seven in the United States, and one of 18 worldwide.
Alteryx currently has a diverse mix of C-level executives. The diversity has both its merits and
concerns; there is a strong history of successful leadership, yet a high degree of uncertainty
regarding the new additions. Five out of the ten C-level executives have been in leadership positions
at Alteryx since its IPO, two of which have been in a leadership role since its founding 23 years ago.
This showcases that there is an established leadership core in place with a track record of success.
However, within the last year, Alteryx has added four new C-level executives to its management
team, accounting for 40% of total executive leadership. The position of COO was created and filled
for the first time in December of 2019. The addition of new executives in a short time period is
concerning for Alteryx leadership moving forward. All four C-level additions have experience in their
respective positions and industry; yet, not proven they will be able to adjust to the established
leadership and culture of Alteryx.
Source: Company Filings
Source: HG Insights
Source: Company Filings
Executive Leadership
Alteryx is making significant steps toward capitalizing on a growing international market for data
analytics software. The company has 18 offices throughout the world and holds its annual Inspire
Conferences in the United States, Europe, and–beginning in 2020–in the Asia Pacific Region. Alteryx’s
international revenue has grown from just under 20% of total revenue to nearly 30% of total revenue
in the past three years. Its product is offered in eight languages and new languages are in
development. The company’s international growth initiatives have had an increasing impact on their
revenue growth over time.
Leveraging Strong International Opportunity
Source: Company Filings
Increase of Specialized Users
Data analytics was first created and developed by IT departments, and has traditionally been
delegated to them. The growing technological sophistication of non-IT individuals has led to
employee use of data analytics software without the need for interference from their IT department.
The potential user market for data analytics platforms is expanding from IT workers to individuals
across all specializations and business units interested in analyzing data effectively and efficiently for
their role within the firm.
Use of technology has seen global growth
Over the past decade the world has seen increased usage of artificial intelligence, cloud services,
computing power, and data analytics. The demand for data workers grew by about 40% in 2017. The
demand for data science and analytics is projected to experience 15% growth over the 5-year
period from 2017-2022.
Data science and related fields continue to increase
There is an increasing number of business degree programs offering data analytics oriented
courses and programs which are preparing the new workforce. In 2015, there were 2M job listings
for data science analysts and the number of listings continues to increase as companies want a
more efficient data solution. The combined job growth of math and statistics, which also includes
data analytics, is expected to grow 30% from 2018-2028.
Time and cost savings with data analytics
Switching from spreadsheet analysis to data analytics software increases firm efficiency and
effectiveness. It saves twenty-six hours per week on average, equating to an industry wide time
savings of $60B annually. The increased awareness of these cost savings drives demand for data
preparation and analytics software.
Azusa Pacific University l 3
Industry Overview and Competitive Advantage
Industry Growth
Demand Drivers
The Global Big Data Market is forecasted for an 11% CAGR with a market size of $103B by 2027.
Alteryx is in the sub-market of Big Data Software which grew 32% in 2017 and is expected to
continue growing at a 16% CAGR with a market size of $46B by 2027. Within the Big Data Software
Market, Alteryx is in the analytics application and data science pipelines market, forecasted to grow
at 26% and 29% respectively. Alteryx will benefit from industry growth within one of the fastest-
growing sectors of the Big Data market.
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Source: FRED St. Louis
Source: Team Analysis
Source: Wikibon
Source: Company Filings
In March of 2010, Alteryx changed its name from SRC, LLC., to Alteryx, LLC. In March of 2011, Alteryx
transitioned from a limited liability company registered in California to a corporation registered in
Delaware. Alteryx has grown through five acquisitions since 2017 (Appendix: B2), all playing roles in
either marketing and/or R&D. These five companies are currently listed as subsidiaries of Alteryx
and are spread out across the United States, Australia, and the Czech Republic. Each international
office is registered in its country of operation as a subsidiary of Alteryx.
Organizational Structure
Alteryx serves customers across most major industries. Currently, Alteryx has over 5,600 customers
worldwide, 680 of which are Forbes Global 2000 companies. Alteryx has created a product that
targets citizen data scientists of different analytical capacities across major industries. This is
accomplished through providing a single database solution as opposed to the traditional 4 to 7
tools that are used in data analytics. Customers of Alteryx are recorded by contract; therefore,
Alteryx does not count the number of ‘seats’ or individual licenses towards its published customer
count but rather how many firms it holds contracts with (a subsidiary or separate division of a
company may count as an additional customer if it is invoiced separately). Alteryx currently has
customers in over 80 countries and no customer accounts for more than 10% of total revenue.
Customer Base
Macroeconomics
The GDP growth rate in the US has ranged from 1-3% since 2008. Alteryx's revenue will benefit from
a continuation of this growth rate as the economy expands. Alteryx has a stable revenue stream
because its revenue is contract-based. Once software becomes part of daily business functions,
companies are less likely to change it. Alteryx benefits from a switching cost competitive advantage
Azusa Pacific University l 4
International Outlook
Alteryx believes data is a global solution and is expanding its product offering abroad. International
revenue nearly doubled in 2017 and 2018; contributing to 30% of total revenue in 2018. Movement
into the international market expanded Alteryx’s potential customer base and created a significant
new geographic revenue stream for the company. Alteryx is continuing to expand internationally
through 8 language offerings (Appendix:C2), increasing the number of sales offices, and holding an
Annual Inspire Conference in Europe and Asia (Appendix:C3). Alteryx began opening international
offices in 2016 and now 11 of its 18 offices are located internationally in North America, Europe,
Asia, Australia (Appendix:C1). The main international competitors are targeting key geographic
locations such as Australia, Singapore, Japan, Dubai, and major European cities.
Market Position
Alteryx holds a weak market position as it moves into competition with big technology companies.
The Alteryx Product was competitive against niche players, but is not as capable or innovative as
other developed products in the market. In our own heuristic model, Alteryx scored in the bottom
half of its industry both in competitive positioning and product positioning, leading to an overall
weak market position.
Product Comparison
Assessing the usability, ‘deployability’, end-to-end functionality, ability to innovate, functionality, and
support, Alteryx's analytics platform is not unique compared to other products on the market. The
product also has a weaker ‘deployability’, scalability, and ability to innovate within the market
(Appendix:C5). The Alteryx Platform is not differentiated within the market and compared to its
competitors it scored near the bottom on product positioning.
Competition
Alteryx’s largest threat is rivalry against existing competitors (Appendix:C10), most of which operate
in the private sector. Competitive positioning was determined by revenue, international presence,
product cost per seat per year, brand recognition, number of language offerings, and number of
employees (Appendix:C4). The factors measure the resources each company has to expand market
space. After comparing Alteryx to its main competitors, the company scored in the bottom half for
its competitive position.
Microsoft
Alteryx’s biggest competitor, Microsoft (MSFT), competes with Alteryx’s analytics platform with two
software platforms: Microsoft Power BI and Azure. Power BI has software functions for the typical
worker in data visualization and lightweight predictive analytics and Azure for data scientists in
advanced analytics with code integration. Alteryx’s strength is an advanced level of predictive
analytic ability code-free. Microsoft has the vision to develop predictive analytics within the Power BI
platform because it currently offers lightweight predictive analytics but has not fully executed that
functionality within the product. Microsoft’s R&D spending of $14,726M is significantly higher than
Alteryx’s $43.4M, giving Microsoft the ability to move into the “code-free advanced predictive
analytics” market space. Microsoft’s sales strategy is to penetrate the market at a low price to gain a
large customer base and increase revenue through additional products and developing its product,
whereas Alteryx’s sales strategy is to land its product into a non-technical department and expand
its revenue through adding additional users  (Appendix:C6).
Source: Team Analysis
Source: Company Filings
Source:  Company Filings of Tableau,
Alteryx and Microstrategy
Source: Team Analysis
Domestic Outlook
The United States is Alteryx’s main geographic revenue source, accounting for 70% of revenue in
2018. Revenue in the United States has increased YOY for the last 3 years. Alteryx established a
foundation of customers within the United States, before expanding internationally. The company's
largest current opportunity domestically is pursuing the "expand" part of its business model with its
current customers through it’s direct sales team.
because of the time and money required to switch data analytics providers after the software has
been integrated into business operations. Alteryx’s revenue may be negatively affected by lower
business investment during the next recession. However, Alteryx's target customer is the average
business analyst that wants to use data to make better business decisions and cut standard
operating costs. These benefits along with persistently low interest rates will likely continue to
incentivize businesses to invest in data analytics software.
Revenue Recognition
Cash Allocation
Acquisitions
Acquisition spending is inconsistent YOY. In 2017, Alteryx acquired Semanta for $5.66M and Yhat
for $10.8M. In 2018, it acquired Alteryx ANZ for $5.7M. In 2019, ClearStory Data was acquired for
$19.6M and Feature Labs for $25.5M. Acquisition spending only accounted for 12% of revenue in
2019 (Appendix:D4).
Research and Development
R&D expenses have been increasing YOY. Alteryx spent $29.3M on R&D in 2017, $43.4M in 2018,
and is expected to spend $68.3M in 2019. R&D spending is decreasing as a percentage of revenue
due to a higher growth rate in revenue, and a focus on sales and marketing spending.
Sales and Marketing
Sales and Marketing spending has increased YOY from $51M in 2017 to $109M in 2018 to $180M
expected in 2019. Alteryx is pursuing a sales push using its inside sales team to create contracts
with new customers and its direct sales team to renew contracts and expand existing contracts
(Appendix:D5). The company partners with 188 value-added resellers throughout the world, who
work directly with channel managers to pursue a go-to-market strategy. VARS contribute about 20%
of Alteryx’s revenue, and the company’s internal sales team delivers the remaining 80% of sales.
Azusa Pacific University l 5
Source: Company Filings
Financial Analysis
Land and Expand
Alteryx’s strategy is to use a “land and expand” business model to effectively grow sales. The
strategy is to offer a free trial of Designer, leading to the sale of at least one seat of the software;
this is “land revenue.” Alteryx then pursues contract expansion with the customer through the
purchase of additional seats in other departments or upgrading to Server, this is “expand revenue.”
Retained revenue consists of the portion of contract revenue that is recognized on a consistent
basis after the initial “one-time” partial revenue recognition under ASC 606. Both land revenue and
expand revenue are forecasted to grow. In 2016, land and expand contributed nearly equal
amounts of total revenue. In 2019, expand revenue began growing at a faster rate than land
revenue. If the customer market becomes saturated at any point in time, the "expand" portion of its
business model creates a viable and sustainable stream of revenue. Alteryx’s retained revenue
accounts for the greatest portion of its total revenue. In 2019, Land revenue was 69.8M, expand
revenue was 74.8M, and retained revenue was 252.6M (Appendix:E3).
Growth Strategies
FASB updated the revenue recognition standard for all public companies reporting under GAAP
from ASC 605 to ASC 606 effective in fiscal 2018. Under ASC 605, Alteryx recognized all of its
revenue evenly over the life of the contract. Under ASC 606, Alteryx recognizes a larger portion of
its contract revenue upfront when the software is first made available to the customer and then
recognizes the remaining revenue evenly over the life of the contract. Adopting ASC 606 is a
significant factor in the revenue increase in 2018, leading to Alteryx’s first year of positive net
income.
Source: Company Filings and Team Analysis
Source: Company Filings
3-Stage Forecasting Model
Azusa Pacific University l 6
DuPont Analysis
As a software company, Alteryx benefits from paying one-time development costs for the software
and selling the same product multiple times, driving a long-run increase in net profit margin. With an
asset turnover of 45%, Alteryx has demonstrated its ability to effectively use its assets to generate
sales. Asset turnover decreased in 2019 due to the large increase in cash from the 2024 and 2026
convertible senior notes in Q3 2019, but is expected to normalize as Alteryx deploys cash to drive
sales. Assets have increased due to the IPO, convertible notes, and intangible assets, while equity
has increased at a slower rate due to a decrease in the accumulated deficit from the 2018 profit and
unrealized gains on investments in US treasury bonds, leading to an overall increase in the equity
multiplier. The increase in cash allocated to growth opportunities has led to higher sales revenue
and an overall positive ROE, which we expect to grow over time.
Financial Leverage
Alteryx's capital structure is 69% debt and 31% equity. Alteryx has taken out long-term debt to
increase cash through the 3 series of convertible senior notes. Debt increased from 47% of equity in
2017 to 51% of equity in 2018 primarily due to the 2023 notes and increased to 67% of equity in Q3
2019 due to 2024 and 2026 notes. The $800M offering of 2024 and 2026 notes adds $623M in
long-term debt and $122M in equity to the balance sheet in Q3 2019. While Alteryx is leveraging
debt for growth, it is inexpensive debt paying just 0.5% interest on the 2023 and 2024 notes and 1%
interest on the 2026 notes. As the convertible senior notes mature in 2024 and 2026 or Alteryx
pays off the notes in cash, equity will become a greater percentage of the capital structure.
Source: Company Filings
Source: Company Filings
Source: Company Filings and Team Analysis
Convertible Senior Notes
In 2018, Alteryx issued $230M of convertible senior notes maturing in 2023 with a coupon rate of
0.5%. As of Q3 2019, all but $67M of these notes have been repurchased by the company.. In 2019,
Alteryx offered $400M of convertible senior notes maturing in 2024 with a 0.5% coupon rate and
$400M of convertible senior notes maturing in 2026 with a 1% coupon rate. The company’s current
cash position is mainly comprised of the proceeds from the issuance of these notes. With a large
amount of cash available, the company may allocate it toward strategic acquisitions or other growth
opportunities. Alteryx entered into capped call agreements with institutional holders for all three
series of notes. If the bonds are converted by their holders, the company can exercise these capped
call agreements to offset the potential dilution of the stock and therefore avoid negatively impacting
shareholders.
Valuation
We issue a SELL recommendation on Alteryx (AYX) with an intrinsic price of $86.97,
representing an downside of 37% from the February 7th, 2020 closing price of $137.68. Our
recommendation is based on a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation with a 3-stage growth
forecasting model projecting through fiscal 2026.
We implemented a 3-stage growth forecasting model that utilizes a short-term, medium-term, and
long-term growth period to project Alteryx's future earnings. Our decision to forecast the financial
statements using a 3-stage growth model is based on different time frames consisting of differing
effects on a company's growth, especially for a relatively young and high growth company such as
Alteryx. The three stages have been forecasted based on the internal dynamics of the company’s
financials, with Alteryx’s revenue growth being constrained by its finite potential customer pool,
limited market space, and the internal dynamics of Alteryx’s customer land, expand, and retention.
Alteryx’s cost of revenue, sales and marketing, general and administrative, and R&D expenses are
modeled non-linearly based on changes in Alteryx's internal financial growth rates, ratios, and
Source: Team Analysis
Short-Term
The short-term growth model is based on trends and the internal dynamics of Alteryx’s ratios and
verticals from the company’s historical quarterly financial data dating back to Q1 2014. Each line
item was forecasted by taking a weighted average of past growth and applying non-linear models to
project future growth. This methodology was implemented for our short-term component of our
forecast since it is the most accurate representation of a firm’s performance in the immediate
future barring any known material changes like interest payments for Alteryx’s convertible notes, tax
revenue, 606 revenue recognition, and irregular income.
Medium-Term
In the medium-term we modeled the growth rates on financial data derived from Alteryx’s internal
dynamics, and the historical data, modeled limitations to customer growth, and estimated market
sizes of similar public companies. We used historical data from the land and expand model to
forecast revenue (Appendix:E3). We analyzed Alteryx’s 3 publicly traded competitors, Tableau, Qlik,
and Microstrategy, to determine industry standards in relation to change in operating expenses and
cost of revenue as a percentage of revenue along with other ratios. Interest expense was modelled
off the expected maturities of the senior convertible notes. This growth forecasting model was
implemented as our medium-term model because it allowed us to constrain Alteryx’s financials in
our research but implemented some foreseen “lag-time” in order to incorporate the organization's
short term financial performance.
Long-Term
The long-term was modelled off the Big Data Analytics projected industry growth rate of 16%. When
examining other comparable companies in a similar state, we observed a decrease in revenue
growth after a few years as those companies reverted to or eventually lagged behind the industry
growth rate. Having Alteryx revert to the forecasted industry growth rate in the long term provides
us a growth rate to safely anchor to as the forecast is projected further into the future and the
uncertainty increases. This model was used in order to best represent the growth realized over our
increasingly distant projections to the end of 2026.
Azusa Pacific University l 7
verticals and by comparison to similar metrics in other comparable companies at a similar stage in
their growth. Using a customized method allowed us to model a modified nonlinear forecast and
mathematically allowed us to embed features from our research like asymptote values and smooth
transitions from exponential growth, to linear growth, to diminishing growth, and finally to a flat,
declining, or linear growth state fit to historical data. Any other constraints that we could not fit in
the model directly we could fit in through our constrained optimization. We strategically weighted a
smooth transition between trend based growth rates, internal dynamics/market constrained growth
rates, and industry growth rates to create an overall growth projection. In our model, the weighting
of each growth rate slowly transitions between all three stages, transferring the majority weight of
the overall growth rate from short-term to medium-term (at 1 ½ years) and medium-term to long-
term (at 5 ½ years) (reference Model Weighting to the right). To account for the change in revenue
recognition, we performed all of the forecasts in ASC 605 numbers (reported for 2018 and
estimated for 2019) and then reapplied the rate changes to ASC 606 numbers.
Land & Expand Revenue Forecast
We utilized data provided by our land and expand model (Appendix:E3) to forecast Alteryx’s revenue.
An analysis of the rate at which Alteryx was adding customers from the Forbes Global 2,000 revealed
Alteryx was transitioning from landing 1 new Global 2,000 company for every 12 total companies
added in Q1 2014 (1:12) to a ratio of 1:3 in Q2 2019 (Appendix:E4). Since we observed a clearly
growing convergence of our customer growth rate to the Global 2,000 customers growth rate, we
constrained our land revenue forecast using a modified logistic model with the annual average of a
1:6 relationship of the Global 2,000. A cap of 1,936 of the Global 2,000 was implemented to
represent the potential market due to 64 of the companies either being competitors, already fully
integrated with a competitor's product, or us believing they have the ability to create in-house
internal software. This 1:6 relationship was used to constrain the total number of customers they
would be able to land during our forecast (Appendix:E5). We then calculated land and expand
revenue data from revenue, net based retention, and customer growth numbers to solve for the
revenue coming from landing contracts with new customers (land revenue) as opposed to
expanding contracts with existing customers (expand revenue). This allowed us to see how much
revenue comes from customer retention (Appendix:E3). Our model was able to account for a
realistic target market, a viable customer growth rate, and most importantly the Alteryx’s land,
expand, and retention revenue streams. We forecasted revenue growth through Q4 2026 for a 7
year forecast.
Source: Team Analysis
Source: Team Analysis
Source: Team Analysis
WACC
The DCF model is the basis for our valuation as it encapsulates our 3-stage forecasted financials.
Due to a lack of similar public companies and the absence of a dividend, the DCF model is the most
appropriate valuation method for Alteryx.
Adjusted Earnings
The DCF model values the company based on the Net Present Value of future adjusted earnings and
the terminal value. Adjusted earnings is calculated by subtracting operating expenses, interest
expense on long-term debt, and taxes from gross profit. We did not adjust for depreciation or
capital expenditures (capex) because over a multi-year time frame, depreciation of assets is a true
expense to the business as the company eventually must repurchase fully depreciated assets, and
capex will remain a constant and integral part of the business while the company is pursuing growth
opportunities.
Terminal Growth Rate
The terminal growth rate of the DCF model is 5.1%. The terminal growth rate is an average of the
expected future US GDP growth (1.72%) and the historic 15 year industry growth in the data
processing services industry (8.47%). We chose to use an average because we believe the current
growth rate of the data analytics industry is too high for a perpetual length of time.
WACC was calculated at 16.26% from a 16.63% cost of equity and a 1.99% cost of debt. The cost of
equity was calculated by using the Fama-French 3-Factor Model. The three factors utilized in the
Fama-French Model were the capital asset pricing model, the small minus big factor, and the high
minus low factor (Appendix:E2).
Azusa Pacific University l 8
Cost of Revenue and Operating Expenses
The short-term model for cost of revenue and operating expenses is based on patterns found
within historical financial data. In the medium-term, we took into consideration the relationship
similar public companies (Tableau, Qlik, Microstrategy) had between cost of revenue and operating
expenses with total revenue and used that data to construct constraints for our model
(Appendix:E6). We modelled each aspect of operating expenses (Research and Development, Sales
and Marketing, Administrative) separately to form Alteryx’s projected operating expenses.
Tax
Alteryx has benefitted from a lower than expected tax rate in 2018 and 2019 which may not
continue to benefit the company in the future. To account for this income without projecting any
growth or diminishing returns, our model discounts operating expenses by the income tax benefit.
The adjustment does not affect our 3-stage growth model, but it is accounted for in our valuation. A
statutory tax rate of 20.7% was used in the WACC and adjusted earnings DCF calculation. The tax
rate was derived from a weighted average according to geographic revenue streams: the US
statutory rate of 21% held a weight of 70% and the European estimated rate of 20% held a weight of
30%.
DCF Model
Investment Risk
Business and Operational Risk
Inexperienced C-Level Management (B-1)
Alteryx has a staff of 10 C-level executives with a mixture of experience and tenure(Appendix:F1). In
December of 2019, Alteryx appointed Scott Davidson as the first COO. The executives are spread
across different office locations with 7 located in Irvine, CA, 2 in Broomfield, CO, and 1 in Menlo Park,
Source: Team Analysis
Source: Team Analysis
Source: Team Analysis
Azusa Pacific University l 9
Source: Team Analysis
Source: Team Analysis
Source: Company Filings
CA; this provides appropriate managerial oversight for staff in varying locations. The Board of
Directors is made up of 8 tenured professionals, 5 of which are independent of any ties to the
company (Appendix:F3). The board members serve three year terms, and the majority of the current
board members began their terms prior to the company’s IPO. The Board’s corporate governance
had a score of 3.48 on a scale of 1-4; with 1 being very poor and 4 representing full compliance with
NYSE standards and CFA corporate governance guidelines (Appendix:F4).
International Expansion (B-2)
In order to fund its current international growth and expansion, Alteryx must allocate its domestic
profits abroad; amidst this growth, the company risks unsuccessfully growing and scaling its
overseas operations and therefore losing domestic profits to a failing international market. Alteryx
risks operating too many ventures at once, impairing management's overall control and spreading
resources thin. Failure at international expansion has two key impacts: 1) The loss of market share
and reputation in the international marketplace, and 2) the negative impact on its domestic market
performance.
Loss of Competitive Advantage (B-3)
As Alteryx starts to compete with larger companies, its competitive advantage is dissipating. The
Alteryx Platform utilizes an interface that can be easily adopted by competitors or new startups
within the industry. A catalyst of this risk is that the technology industry is full of innovation and
growth, causing any competitive advantages to become outdated quickly in a new market, and
Alteryx’s lack of innovation prevents them from effectively combating this reality. There are two
primary impacts of Alteryx losing its competitive advantage: 1) It would be very difficult for Alteryx to
gain and retain customers, and 2) It would force Alteryx to spend significant capital in an attempt to
develop further advantages.
Clients Become Competition (B-4)
Technology companies such as Tableau, acquired by Salesforce, and Microsoft are both customers
and partners in a mutually beneficial relationship. There is a risk that one of these current partners
decides to develop its product to directly compete with Alteryx. Microsoft has already begun this
process by expanding the reach of Power BI through integrating Power Query into Excel and Power
BI. Microsoft has trial phases of predictive analytics within Power BI, indicating the company may
move into Alteryx’s direct market space soon. Microsoft has a well-known brand and larger R&D
team to implement this growth faster than Alteryx can grow. After being acquired by Salesforce,
Tableau now has the resources to pursue product development. The impact of this risk is twofold: 1)
Alteryx will lose customer revenue currently coming from Microsoft and/or Tableau, and 2) Microsoft
and/or Tableau will take customers and market share with a competing product.
Dilution from Senior Convertible Notes (I-1)
The failure to maintain significant capital to pay off $1.03B senior convertible notes at the maturity
date or at the request of the bondholder will lead to an automatic conversion into Class A common
stock and could significantly dilute the share price of Alteryx. If all of the outstanding senior notes
were converted into Class A common stock and the company was unable to exercise its capped call
contracts, 8.15% dilution would occur. The impact of such dilution would be twofold: 1) Alteryx share
price drops, and 2) Alteryx’s reputation as a debt holder is weakened. Furthermore, the occurrence
of this risk will impact Alteryx’s ability to raise capital through debt and potential seasonal offerings.
Investment Risk
Acquisition Risk (I-2)
With five acquisitions since 2017, Alteryx has a history of growth through acquisitions. This growth
strategy presents two primary risks: 1) employees from the acquired firm do not integrate into the
established corporate culture and leave the company, and 2) the technology acquired does not
integrate effectively with Alteryx’s platform in the long run.
Regulatory Risk
Failure to Secure Customer Information (R-1)
Alteryx experienced two different security breaches in 2017 and 2018 that led to lawsuits brought
by Alteryx’s customers. Alteryx uses a 3rd party cloud to store its customers’ data and continued
security issues may cause Alteryx to look into transferring the data to another cloud provider.
Security breaches can lead to any of two main impacts: 1) Alteryx’s brand reputation would be
severely tainted by the release of sensitive customer information leading to loss of customers, and
2) Litigation on the part of Alteryx’s customers. The lawsuits from 2017 and 2018 have been
dropped, but public perception is negatively affected by lawsuits regarding customer security.
Azusa Pacific University l 10
Corporate Governance
Executives and Board Governance
Shareholder Structure
Alteryx has a staff of 10 C-level executives with a mixture of experience and tenure(Appendix:F1). In
December of 2019, Alteryx appointed Scott Davidson as the first COO. The executives are spread
across different office locations with 7 located in Irvine, CA, 2 in Broomfield, CO, and 1 in Menlo
Park, CA; this provides appropriate managerial oversight for staff in varying locations. The Board of
Directors is made up of 8 tenured professionals, 5 of which are independent of any ties to the
company (Appendix:F3). The board members serve three year terms, and the majority of the
current board members began their terms prior to the company’s IPO. The Board’s corporate
governance had a score of 3.48 on a scale of 1-4; with 1 being very poor and 4 representing full
compliance with NYSE standards and CFA corporate governance guidelines (Appendix:F4).
Alteryx, Inc., has two different stock classes, Class A common stock and Class B common stock.
Class A common stock currently trades on the NYSE and is the only class available to the public.
Class B common stock is held by pre-IPO equity holders and converts to Class A when traded; it is
convertible on a one-to-one ratio to Class A stock. Class A has one vote per share and Class B has
ten votes per share, thus representing significant inequality in shareholder rights. All remaining
Class B shares will convert to Class A at the earliest of the following three dates: 1) the date at
which 2/3 of the Class B shareholders vote to convert it, 2) ten years from the IPO (2027), or 3) the
date at which Class B stock represents less than 10% of the aggregate number of total shares
outstanding (Class A and Class B). Currently, insiders hold 0.54% of all outstanding shares, not
including derivative options. As of October 24, 2019, there are 51,819,830 Class A shares and
13,256,299 Class B shares outstanding. As of February 2019, there were 51 registered holders of
Class A shares and 36 registered holders of Class B shares. The public float of all outstanding
shares, including Class B, is 79.25%. Alteryx issued convertible senior notes in 2018 with the
intention to redeem them in cash; however, failure to do so (and failure to enact capped call
contracts) is expected to dilute the stock by 8.15%.
Financial Responsibility
Alteryx reported material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting in 2016, but as of
March 31st, 2018, it has remedied this issue. Although a Beneish Model analysis of Alteryx yielded
an “M-Score” of -2.225, indicating the company is unlikely to be manipulating its earnings, the
company has not released any specific information or reports regarding the incident or its remedy.
At the end of fiscal 2018 concerns of a conflict of interest led Alteryx to switch auditors from PwC to
Deloitte due to the promotion of Alteryx software by the business advisory wing of PwC. This led
the audit committee to select Deloitte as the new independent auditor, a decision which was
ratified by shareholders in the 2018 annual proxy voting (Appendix:F7).
Source: Company Filings and Team Analysis
Source: Company Filings and Team Analysis
Source: Team Analysis
Source: Team Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis
The terminal growth rate and the WACC are two primary inputs for our DCF valuation. We
performed a sensitivity analysis for both of these rates to visualize how they influence the projected
value of Alteryx stock. If the WACC decreased to 14.75% with the terminal growth rate increasing to
5.5%, Alteryx stock would still have a downside of 23%.
Appendix
A. Abbreviations and Sources 12
B. Business Description 13
B1. Product Description Chart 13
B2. Acquisition Chart 13
C. Industry Overview and Competitive Advantage 14
C1. International Office Map of Competitors 14
C2. Alteryx Office Locations and Platform Languages 15
C3. Inspire Conference Attendance 15
C4. Competitive Position Factors 15
C5. Product Position Factors 16
C6. Alteryx vs. Microsoft 16
C7. SWOT 17
C10. Porter's 5 Forces 18
D. Financial Analysis 18
D1. Z-Score 18
D2. Forecasted Income Statement 19
D3. Forecasted Balance Sheet 20
D4. Cash Allocation Data 21
D5. Sales Team 22
E. Valuation 22
E1. DCF Valuation 22
E2. Total Cost of Equity 23
E3. Forecasted Land and Expand and Retain Revenue 23
E4. Global 2000 Customers 24
E5. Customer Growth 24
E6. Cost of Revenue 25
F. Corporate Governance 25
F1. Executive Leader Descriptions 25
F2. Leadership Locations 26
F3. Board Member Description 27
F4. Corporate Governance Rating 29
F5. Shareholder Ownership 29
F6. CSR Initiatives Chart 30
F7. Beneish M-Score 30
Azusa Pacific University l 12
A. Abbreviations andSources
Abbreviation Full Term
TTM Trailing Twelve Months
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
YOY Year Over Year
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate
Land Revenue Revenue derived from contracts with new customers
Expand Revenue Revenue derived from expanding contracts with existing customers
Retained Revenue Revenue derived from previous year revenue in both land and expand
PwC PricewaterhouseCoopers
R&D Research and Development
WACC Weighted Average Cost of Capital
Citizen Data Scientist
A person who creates models to leverage predictive analytics whose primary job function is outside
the field of statistics and analytics
Seat Single subscription to Alteryx Designer
M Millions
B Billions
NPM Net Profit Margin
Sources:
2019 Gartner Magic Quadrant. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www .tableau .com/reports/gartner?id=19148&utm
_source= NLTUG&utm_medium=linkedin&utm_campaign=MQ2019BI.
AlteryxReview.(n.d.).Retrievedfromhttps://reviews.financesonline. com/p/alteryx/.
Analytics, Business Intelligence and Data Management. (n.d.). Retrieved from https:// www.sas.com/ .
Arora, S.(2020,January 22). Role of Citizen Data Scientist in Today's Business. Retrieved from https://www .si
mplilearn.com/citizen-data-scientists-article.
Berthold, M. (2020, February 18). Open for Innovation . Retrieved from https://www.knime.com/.
Best Data Science & Machine Learning Platform. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.rapidminer. com/.
Brooks, S., Brooks, S. B., Brooks, S., Brooks, S., Murphy, I., Brooks, S., & Brett, C. (2016, March 22). How close can Alteryx and Microsoft get?-. Retrieved
from https://www.enterprisetimes.co.uk/2016/03/22/close-can-alter
yx-microsoft-get/.
Bruijn, J. D. (2019, February 28). Gartner's Magic Quadrants 2019: A side-by-side comparison of Analytics and Business Intelligence plus Data Science and
Machine Learning Platforms (English). Retrieved from https://infotopics.nl/blog/2019/02/28/gartners-magic-quadrants-2019/.
Contact Us. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://rapidminer .com/us/ contact-us/ .
Data Analytics for Modern Business Intelligence. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.qlik. com/ .
Gartner, Inc. (n.d.). Alteryx Data Science and Machine Learning Platforms Reviews. Retrieved from
https://www .gartner.com/reviews/market/data-scienee-machine-Iearning-platforms/vendor/alte ryx.
Gartner, Inc. (n.d.). Alteryx Platform review in Data Science and Machine Learning Platforms Reviews. Retrieved from
https://www.gartner.com/reviews/marketldata-scienee-machine-Iearni ng-platforms/vendor/alte ryx/
product/alteryx-platform/review/view/900964#sub-head.
Gartner_lnc. (n.d.). Magic Quadrant for Data Science and Machine Learning Platforms. Retrieved from https://www .gartner.com/en/documents/3899464.
Global Leader in Integration and Analytics Software. (n.d.). Retrieved from https:// www.tibco.com/ .
Gross Domestic Product. (2020,January 30).Retrieved from https://fr ed.stlouisfed .org/series/GDP.
Home. (2020,January 31). Retrieved from https:// www.bls.gov/.
Locations: TIBCO Software . (n.d.). Retrieved from https:// www.tibco. com/ company/locations .
MicroStrategy, Business Intelligence Solutions Review, & ZDNet. (2020, January 29). Business Analytics & Mobility Solutions. Retrieved from
https://www.mic rostrategy .com/ .
Microsoft Power Bl vs Alteryx 2020 Comparison: FinancesOnline. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://comparisons.finance
sonline. com/mic rosoft -power-bi-vs-alteryx.
Roadmap: Microsoft Power Bl. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://powerbi.microsoft.com/en-us/roadmap/.
Self-Service Data Analytics Platform. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.alteryx.com/.
Shea, K. (2018, September 04). Alteryx Inspires 3,000 Data Scientists to 'Alter.Everything'. Retrieved from
https://www .eventmarketer.com/article/alteryx-inspire-data-scientists-alter-everything/.
Shein, E. (2019, October 23). Channel partner account manager role is due for a refr esh. Retrieved from https://
searchitchannel.techtarge t.com/feature/Channel-partner-ac count-manager-role-is-due-for-a-re fr esh.
Tableau : Business Intelligence and Analytics Software . (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www .tableau .com/ .
Wikibon's 2018 BigData Analytics Trends and Forecast. (2018,June 26). Retrieved from https://wikib on.com/wikibo
ns-2018-big-data-analytics-trends-forecast/.
Your Path to Enterprise Al. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.dataiku.com/.
Azusa Pacific University l 13
B. Business Description
B1. Product Description Chart
Alteryx Platform
Designer+ Server+ Promote+ Connect
Designer o Data profiling: assessing the quality of a dataset
o Preparation and blending of data
o Drag & Drop interface
o Repeatable workflow for self-service data analytics
o Alteryx Visualytics - visualizing data through the whole journey, not just at
the end
o Predictive analytics with no coding
R-based
30 drag & drop tools
No black box analytics
No code/programming
Direct R or Python can be integrated
o Spatial analytics (analysis based on geography)
Insights can be shared with third-party apps
o Create custom reports and visualizations
• Single seat licenses or
broad enterprise-level
agreements
• $5,195/user per year
• Location Insights Data :
$11,700/user peryear
• Business Insights
Dataset:$33,800/user
per year
Server o Server-based product for 24/7 self-service dataanalytics
o Web environment
o Good for scalable businesses
o Built-in scheduling
o Automation capabilities for running analytic workflows
o Move organizations analytic processes to a secure place that still runs
workflows while not consuming desktop space
o Everyone can access data on the server
o Store, share, and publish analytic workflows
o Corporate governance can control who sees data
• Larger scale
environments
• Per-CPU basisorbroad
enterprise-level
agreements of
Designer
• $58,500/per year
Connect o Eliminate redundancy of data analysis by cataloging the work and analysis
done by peers
o Business glossary: define standard business terms within the organization
o Search content based on how others in your organization have rated its
effectiveness
o Gather information on how data is used and consumed
• Extension of server
• Licensed per server
basis
• $39,900/per year
Promote o Deploy predictive models
o Code-free: no code required
o Code-friendly: integrate Rand Python based models
o Capable of REST APIrequests
o CRM (customer relationship management) applications
o Web and mobile applications
o Internal applications
o Deploys Rand Python models through standard REST API
o Monitor system resources for CPU, memory, and disk usage for server
• Part of platform or
per-CPU basis oras
part of broad
enterprise-level
agreement
Community o Community hub with updates
o Open discussions
o Video and blog resources
• Included with owning
any Alteryx software
Gallery o Includes public workflows uploaded by users
o Private studio for individual workflows
• Included with owning
any Alteryx software
Source: Alteryx Website
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B2. Acquisition Chart
Alteryx has acquired five companies since going public in 2017. All five acquisitions have been integral in developing sales
and marketing or research and development. Historically, Alteryx has not been limited to acquiring companies in the United
States, with 40% of its acquisitions being international.
Company Description
Semanta s.r.o. Semanta, or Semanta s.r.o. is a Czech Republic based data governance firm. The acquisition of
Semanta allowed Alteryx to develop its "connect" product offering. Semanta was acquired for $5.66M
with the purchase consideration going towards acquired technology, goodwill, and assumed
liabilities.
Yhat, Inc. Yhat, Inc. is a Brooklyn based company that was founded in 2013 to help data scientists create,
integrate, and deploy predictive models in other software and applications. The acquisition ofYhat,
Inc. allows Alteryx to provide highly manageable workflows with minimal coding. Yhat, Inc. was
acquired for $10.8M with the purchase consideration going towards acquired technology, goodwill,
and assumed liabilities.
Alteryx ANZ Pty
Limited
Alteryx ANZ Pty Limited, referred to as Alteryx ANZ was acquired in February of 2018. Alteryx ANZ was
founded in Sydney in 2015 to act as an exclusive master distributor of Alteryx products across the
regions of Australia and New Zealand. Upon the time of acquisition, Alteryx ANZ had over 100 current
customers, those of which were inherited by Alteryx. This acquisition did not involve any technology
but was more focused on market penetration. This acquisition cost $5.7M and the allocation of the
total purchase price was $3.3M towards cash consideration, $1.2M to contingent consideration
payable in cash, and $1.2M towards the settlement of preexisting relationships.
ClearStory Data,
Inc.
ClearStory Data, Inc. was acquired on April 4, 2019 for $19.6M. ClearStory Data is currently located in
Menlo Park, California. ClearStory Data focuses on intelligent automation of platforms on a large
scale. Through this acquisition Alteryx gained insightful technology as well as an experienced team for
its R&D department. In order to help retain employees of ClearStory Data, Alteryx entered into $6M
worth of employee agreements-based achievements and milestones. Of the $19.6M purchase price,
$10.7M was completed technology, $9.5 mm USO of Goodwill, and $0.6M of net liabilities assumed.
Feature Labs, Inc. Feature Labs, Inc. was acquired by Alteryx on October 3, 2019 for $25.SM. Feature Labs is a machine
learning startup that was launched from MIT in 2018. Feature Labs is in the business of automated
feature engineering, which uses domain knowledge to make machine algorithms work through raw
data. Aside from the $25.SM purchase price of all outstanding equity, Alteryx entered into $12.SM
worth of stock options with Feature Labs employees.
Source: Alteryx Press Releases
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Office Locations
Irvine, CA, USA London, United Kingdom
Silicon Valley, CA, USA Paris, France
Boston, MA, USA Prague, Czech Republic
Broomfield, CO, USA Munich, Germany
Dallas, TX, USA Kiev, Ukraine
Chicago, IL, USA Copenhagen, Denmark
New York, NY, USA Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Toronto, Canada Singapore
Sydney, Australia Tokyo, Japan
Platform Languages
English
French
Spanish
Italian
Dutch
Porteguese
Japanese
Chinese
C. Industry Overview and Competitive Advantage
C1. International Office Map of Competitors
Source: Craft Company
Alteryx
Tableau
18 Qlik
19 MicroStrategy
28 Sisense 6
27 Dataiku 2
C2. Alteryx Office Locations and Platform Languages
Source: Alteryx Website and Community Forum
C3. Inspire Conference Attendance
Alteryx holds an annual user conference to bring the Alteryx community together for customers to network, enhance their
skill sets, ask questions to a solutions team, and hear from keynote speakers. In 2020, Alteryx announced it will be holding
its first Inspire Conference for the Asia Pacific region in Sydney, Australia.
United States Europe
2016 1450 480
2017 1900 750
2018 3,000+ 1,538
2019 5,000+ 2,000+
Source: Alteryx Inspire Conference Sponsorship Prospectus and Event Marketer
Azusa Pacific University l 16
C4. Competitive Position Factors
Competitive Position was determined through a heuristic model to evaluate competitors relative to each other and through
weighting certain factors greater than others. Our analysis determined that Alteryx is in the middle of the market. Brand
recognition was measured by Google search history over the last three years. Google Trends history revealed a huge
growth of brand awareness in comparison to competitors.
Source: Team Analysis and Google Trends
CS. Product Position Factors
Product Position was determined through a heuristic model to evaluate competitors relative to each other and through
weighting certain factors greater than others. Alteryx's product is positioned on the low end compared to its competitors.
The product's strength comes primarily through its support and usability, but suffers comparatively from its functionality
and scalability.
Source: Team Analysis
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C6. Alteryx vs. Microsoft
Microsoft is currently a tech partner with Alteryx, allowing customers to integrate Micro soft PowerBI and the Alter yx
Platform to make an overall end-to-end platform. Should Microsoft choose to develop its current software, PowerBI, to have
a higher level of predictive analytics, it would move into Alte ryx's market space and become a direct competitor.
Alteryx Microsoft
Data Preparation,
Visualization, and
Analytics
Designer PowerBI Pro
$432.91/seat/month ($5,195/seat/year) $9.99/user/month
Automated Scalable
Server
Server PowerBI Premium
$4,875/month ($58,500/year) $4,995/month
Collaboration Available with Server Available with PowerBI Pro
Additional Pro duct s
• Connect - data cataloging , internal ratings, and • Embedded - allows independent software
glossary developers to embed analytics into their own
• Promote - predict ive model management for data applications
scientists • Report Server - On-premise reporting for
• Gallery - extern al collaboration across companies
organizations • Az..u.r.e - Microsoft's cloud, artificial intelligence,
machine learning, and data warehousing
Competitive
Advantage
• More sophisticated predictive analytic ability • Lower cost
without code • Available on mobile devices
• Live phone customer service • Stronger global presence (44language settings)
• Cloud Integrat ion isin-house
• Excel is a Microsoft product
• Open Source option on Azure
Sales Strategy
• Land softwa re in non-technical department of • Penetration PricingStrategy
company
• Expand into other departments through adding
seats
• Expand into IT department to sell Altery xPromote
Target Customers • Medium andEnterprise Businesses • Small, Medium, and Enterprise Businesses
• Excel Users
Mutual Features
• Free trial
• Drag-and-drop function
• Code andcode-friendly
• Vast variety of data connectors
• Cloud integration
• Robust support: community groups, online training, examples, live contact
Source: Alter yx Website , Microsoft Website , Team Analysis
C7. SWOT
We used a heuristic model to score SWOT factors out of 100; the score for strength is 80, weaknesses is 80, opportunities is
52.86, and threats is 60. Alteryx's strengths are matched by its weaknesses, but its threats outweigh its opportunities.
Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats
• Drag-and-d ro p Interface
• Live customer support
• 18 offices worldwide
• Large growth since IPO
• High consumer ratings
• Go to market success
• Land and expand success
• Inspire Conference
• Pricing model is on the
high end of the market
• Limited targetmarket
• Inorganic growth
• Most customers in early
stage of Alteryx Platform
• International expansion
• IT market expansion
• Product development
• Expanding on overall
offering with a cloud
service
• Visualization
• Adding more languages
• Cheaper competition
• Technology advances
from other companies
• Tech giants that already
have full offering with Al
and cloud services
Source: Team Analysis
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C10. Porter's 5 Forces
The Porter's five forces analysis shows that Alteryx's future profitability is threatened by the ability customers have to
negotiate prices and agreements with Alteryx, as well as the crowded competitive field of data analytics.
The Threat of New Entrants: MODERATE
The technology sector has low barriers to entry because of low start -up costs. However, to succeed in the technology sector, start -ups
need innovation. The existing players in the market have already established brand recognition, loyalty, and have the resources to be
cost-competitive. New entrants that have new ideas are very likely to enter the market, but are also likely to be acquired by one of the
existing companies for the contribution made to the data analytics field. The likelihood of new entrants is high, but the threat is
dependent on having something new but partially negated by the probability of acquisition .
The Threat of Substitutes: VERY LOW
The primary substitute for a data analytics platform such as Alteryx or a competitor would be doing data analytics through Excel or in-
house so ft ware. Companies working in data preparation and analytics work to move these companies from Excel or in-house
methods to platforms such as Alteryx to increase efficiency within each company. Since the substitutes are generally considered part
of the target market for companies in data analytics, the substitutes are not a threat for the industry as a whole.
The Bargaining Power of Suppliers: LOW
Alteryx has partnerships to allow for data integration. These allow collaboration between data analytics companies to import and
export data. For a data analytics company to be truly successful, it needs to allow for collaboration across platforms or provide
everything inside its platform. Choosing not to integrate makes it difficult for customers who find themselves in a transition period or
wanting to implement various platforms. Most companies use mutually beneficial partnerships to bolster products. The bargaining
power of these partners is low because of its commonality and mutually beneficial nature.
The Bargaining Power of Buyers: HIGH
Buyers of software platforms have the power of negotiation. The buyer can choose to integrate a competing platform which drives the
cost down . In general, buyers are unable to create their own replacement to the software capabilities offered by data analytics
companies, but they can choose not to switch away from their current method. Most companies realize that it will save money by
having a data analytics platform and it chooses the one that will work best for them (negotiating/loweringthe price plays into that).
Rivalry Among Existing Competitors: VERY HIGH
The existing companies in data analytics include niche players that compete in small areas as well as larger companies that can offer
more than Alteryx such as the tech giant, Microsoft. The larger companies have the advantage of brand recognition, international
presence, full company integration, and visualization. Some of the niche players in the market get acquired by larger companies,
making that competition even more steep . Pricing also fluctuates within the market, with Alteryx's price being on the high end.
Source: Team Analysis
D. Financial Analysis
D1. Z-Score
The Altman Z-Score estimates the financial viability of a company using data from its financial statement s. AZ-score below
1.8 indicates that a company is financially weak and will likely fail in the near future. A Z-score between 1.8 and 2.99
indicates that a company is healthy, but not as healthy as it could be. A Z-score above 2.99 indicates a company is healthy
and financially viable. The Z-scores calculated indicate that Alteryx is healthy and financially viable. However, the company's
Z-score does decrease overtime, indicating that the company's financial viability could deteriorate moving forward.
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Working Capital / Total Assets 0.38 0.55 0.41 0.44 0.42 0.36 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.31
Retained Earnings/ Total Assets -0.36 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Earnings before Interest and Tax/ Total Assets -0.06 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.18
Market Value of Equity/ Total Liabilities 7.90 8.68 6.03 5.31 4.68 3.92 3.17 3.37 3.12 3.48
Sales/ Total Assets 0.45 0.41 0.28 0.26 0.33 0.38 0.40 0.48 0.54 0.60
Z-Score 4.95 6.40 4.43 4.02 3.83 3.44 2.99 3.29 3.30 3.65
Source: Company Filings
Azusa Pacific University l 19
D2. Forecasted Income Statement
USD $ (in
millions)
2017 2018 2019 E 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F
Revenue 131 .6 253.6 396.7 652.3 1060.7 1693.9 2654.1 3618.6 4221.4 4860.6
Cost of Revenue (21.8) (22.8) (37.4) (48.4) (66.2) (92.8) (128.9) (154.2) (178.2) (206.7)
Gross Profit 109.8 230.8 359.3 603.9 994.5 1601.0 2525.2 3464.4 4043.2 4653.8
Operating
Expenses
R&D (29.3) (43.5) (68.3) (97.0) (155.1) (247.58) (387.8) (528.7) (616.8) (710,1)
Sales and
Marketing (51.9) (109.3) (181.0) (252.5) (382.3) (574.8) (848.5) (1048.4) (1214.5) (1408.8)
General and
Administrative (32.2) (48.3) (80.8) (128.9) (214.8) (352.7) (562.5) (723.1) (840.0) (974.4)
Total Operating
Expenses (113.5) (201.0) (330.0) (478.5) (752.2) (1175.0) (1798.7) (2300.2) (2671.2) (3093.3)
EBIT (3.7) 29.8 29.3 125.4 242.3 426.0 726.5 1164.2 1371.9 1560.6
Other
Income/Expense (0.2) 3.0 4.9 5.5 7.4 9.4 11.1 12.5 13.6 14.4
Irregular
Income/Expense (42.0) (64.2) (86.7) (88.9) (90.1) (90.5) (90.5) (90.5)
Net Finance
Income/Expense (7.4) (16.7) (23.1) (23.2) (23.2) (19.6) (17.0) (18.5) (20.1)
EBT (18.4) 25.4 (24.5) 43.6 139.8 323.4 627.9 1069.2 1276.5 1464.3
Provision for
Income Tax 0.9 2.6 0.2 (2.0) (18.8) (54.9) (109.8) (187.6) (224.0) (257.0)
Net Income (17.5) 28.0 (24.4) 41.6 121.0 268.5 518.1 881.6 1052.5 1207.3
Preferred/Other
Stock
Distribution (2.0)
Net Income
Available to
Common
Stockholders (19.5) 28.0 (24.4) 41.6 121.0 268.5 518.1 881.6 1052.5 1207.3
Sourc e: Company Filings and Team Analysis
Azusa Pacific University l 20
D3. Forecasted Balance Sheet
USD $ {in
millions)
2017 2018 2019 E 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F
Current Assets
Cash.Cash
Equivalents
119 .7 90.0 642.5 409.1 517 .7 626.3 734.8 843.4 952.0 1060 .6
Accounts
Receivable
49 .8 94.9 58.3 77.9 97.5 117 .1 136.7 156.3 175.9 195.0
Other Current
Assets
72.8 276.9 35.6 504.6 663.7 904..6 124 0.7 1481 .3 1640 .8 1799 .8
PPE 7.5 11.7 56.2 60.3 64.3 68.3 72.3 76.3 80.3 44.4
Other Assets 41 .6 144 .6 470.9 513.7 648.9 963.5 1525.5 1756.8 1986.3 1975.8
Total Assets 291.4 618.2 1272.8 1546 .0 19 72.5 2660.1 3690.4 4294.6 4815.7 5056.5
Current
Liabilities
13 0.8 124 .6 220.1 298.6 438.1 659.4 975.8 1196.9 1336.7 1480.0
Convertible
Senior Notes
173 .6 623.7 623.7 623.7 623.7 623.7 623.7 311.9 311.9
Other
Liabilities
7.1 18.1 8.7 46.4 37.0 28.8 23.2 18 .1
Total Liabilities 137 .9 316.3 852.6 968.7 1098.8 1311 .8 1311.8 1622.7 1526.9 1648.6
Additional Paid
in Capital
257.4 315.3 493.2 591.6 886.7 1360.3 2078.6 2777.8 3176.1 3580 .0
Accumulated
Deficit
(103.6) (12.9) (16.5) (14 .2) (13.0) (12.0) (11.0 (10.0) (9.0) (8.0)
Reserves/
Comprehensive
Income (loss)
(0.4) (0.5) (0.1) (0.1)
Other Equity 0.1 (0.1)
Total Equity 153.5 301.8 476.6 577.3 873.7 1348.3 2067.6 2767.8 3167.1 3576.5
Source: Company Filings and Team Analysis
Azusa Pacific University l 21
D4. Cash Allocation Data
USD $ (in millions) 2016 2017 2018 2019 E 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F
R&D 17.5 29.3 43.5 68.3 97.0 143.7 211.2 297.4 375.5 435.8 503.1
% of Revenue 20.4% 22.3% 17.1% 17.2% 15.0% 14.4% 14.4% 14.4% 14.4% 14.4% 14.4%
o/oofOpEx 21.1% 25.8% 21.6% 20.7% 20.3% 20.0% 20.5% 20.9% 21.7% 21.7% 21.6%
Sales and Marketing 47.8 51.9 109.3 181.0 251.8 367.2 508.7 676.9 802.1 929.0 1,077.6
% of Revenue 55.8% 39.5% 43.1% 45.6% 39.0% 36.8% 34.7% 32.8% 30.8% 30.7% 30.9%
o/oofOpEx 57.6% 45.7% 54.4% 54.8% 52.7% 51.2% 49.3% 47.6% 46.4% 46.3% 46.4%
General and
Administrative
17.7 32.2 48.3 80.7 128.6 206.3 312.1 448.5 552.3 641.4 $744.0
% of Revenue 20.7% 24.5% 19.0% 20.4% 19.9% 20.6% 21.3% 21.7% 21.2% 21.2% 21.3%
o/oofOpEx 21.3% 28.4% 24.0% 24.5% 26.9% 28.8% 30.2% 31.5% 31.9% 32.0% 32.0%
Source:
Company Filings and Team Analysis
D5. Sales Team
The inside sales teams are focused on finding new customers and creating contracts with them. The direct sales team also
expands contracts with current customers through adding more seats of the software to different departments or upgrading
to Server, Connect, and Promote. Value-added resellers are partners that assist the customer with implementation, training,
and support with the platform. Partners have access to resources and are able to improve technical knowledge and sales of
the Alteryx Platfo rm. Alteryx has a tiered program structure with benefits that increase with greater sales success. When
pursuing a new geographic market, the company deploys resellers to provide professional services and end-user training to
new customers, a direct sales team member, and a pre-salesperson to provide a full sales experience to new customers.
The company is focusing on a smaller number of strategic VAR partnerships for a more efficient go-to-market strategy .
Source: Company Filings and Earnings Calls
Azusa Pacific University l 22
E. Valuation
E1. DCFValuation
USD $ (in
millions) 2019 E 2020 F 2021 F 2022 F 2023 F 2024 F 2025 F 2026 F Terminal
Revenue 396.65 652.25 1,060.68 1,693.85 2,654.12 3,618.62 4,221.37 4,860.55
Cost of Revenue (37.38) (48.39) 66.22 (92.83) (128.91) (154.20) 178.23 (206.71)
Gross Profit 359.27 603.87 994.46 1,601.02 2,525.21 3,464.42 4,043.15 4,653.84
Total Operating
Expenses (330.02) (478.46) (752.20) 1,174.98 (1,798.71) (2,300.25) (2,671.24) (3,093.28)
Operating Income 29.25 125.40 242.26 426.04 726.50 1,164.17 1,371.91 1,560.56
Interest Expense (16.66) (23.08) (23.20) (23.17) (19.60) (17.01) (18.47) (20.12)
Pre-ta x Income 12.59 102.33 219.06 402.87 706.90 1,147.17 1,353.44 1,540.44
Tax (at .207 tax
rate) 2.61 21.18 45.34 83.39 146.33 237.46 280.16 318.87
Adjusted Earnings 9.98 81.15 173.71 319.47 560.57 909.70 1,073 .28 1,221 .57 1,283 .87
Terminal
Value 11,507.36
Discount Period 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00
Discount Factor 1.00 0.86 0.74 0.64 0.55 0.47 0.41 0.35
Discounted Cash
Flow 9.98 69.80 128.53 203.32 306.87 428.36 434.71 4,434.66
Enterprise Value Cash and
Cash
Equivalents
on Hand
Equity
Value
Shares
Outstanding
(Class A and
B)
Equity
Value Per
Share
Minority
Discount
Final
Equity
Value Per
Share
6,016.22 642.45 6,658.67 65.08 102.32 15% 86.97
Source: Team Analysis
Terminal Growth
Rate= 5.10%
WACC= 16.26%
Azusa Pacific University l 23
E2. Total Cost of Equity (3-factor Fama-French Model)
In our Fama-French 3 factor model, robust regressions were used to adjust for outliers and the Durbin-Watson ,
Breusch-Pagan, Runs-test, and White test for autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity (all tests were negative). Coefficients
were applied to factors from 2005-2020 to get the full business cycle (2017-2020 were skewed and the cost of equity would
have been more than 30%). Though not used in our calculations the Fama-trench 5 factor returned similar valuations.
Years of
Alteryx
Data
Robust
Regression
Factor(s)
b0 p b1 p b2 p R2 RFR
Total
Cost
of
Equity
WACC Price
Price w/
Minority
Discount
3 Mkt - RFR 1.77 0.0001> 0.191 1.56% 17.54% 17.14% $ 93.71 $ 79.65
2 Mkt - RFR 1.81 0.0001> 0.244 1.94% 17.91% 17.50% $ 90.58 $ 77.00
1 Mkt - RFR 1.46 0.0001> 0.144 2.12% 14.69% 14.36% $ 126.58 $ 107.59
0.5 (6m ) Mkt - RFR 1 .21 0 .000 1> 0.087 1.80% 12.39% 12.12% $ 172.99 $ 147.04
3 SMB 1.04 0.0001> 0.021 1.56% 1.35% 1.36%
2 SMB 1.02 0.002 - 0.021 1.94% 1.35% 1.36%
1 SMB 0.57 0.247 - 0.007 2.12% 1.31% 1.32%
0.5 (6m) SMB -0.27 0.638 - 0.002 1.80% 1.24% 1.24%
3 HML -2.66 0.0001> 0.186 1.56% 3.78% 3.73%
2 HML -3.05 0.0001> 0.252 1.94% 4.15% 4.09%
1 HML -2.76 0.0001> 0.262 2.12% 3.88% 3.82%
0.5 (6m ) HML -3.01 0.0001> 0.323 1.80% 4.12% 4.05 %
3 Mkt - RFR, SMB 1.73 0.0001> 0.63 0.022 - 0.199 1.56% 17.23% 16.84% $ 96.51 $ 82.03
2 Mkt - RFR, SMB 1.78 0.0001> 0.71 0.022 - 0.254 1.94% 17.69% 17.29% $ 92.37 $ 78.51
Mkt - RFR, SMB 1.48 0.0001> -0.14 0.745 - 0.145 2.12% 14.86% 14.53% $ 124.03 $ 105.42
0.5 (6m ) Mkt - RFR, SMB 1.27 0.0001> -0.59 0.311 0.094 1.80% 12.89% 12.61% $ 160.41 $ 136.35
3
Mkt - RFR , SMB ,
1.44 0.0001> 0.55 0.017 -2.19 0.0001> 0.32 1.56% 16.63% 16.26% $ 102.32 $ 86.97
HML
2 Mkt - RFR, SMB, 1.43 0.0001> 0.48 0.043 -2.43 0.0001> 0.40 1.94% 16.76% 16.38% $ 124.79 $ 106.78
HML
Mkt - RFR, SMB,
1.21 0.0001> 0.36 0.265 -2.62 0.0001> 0.373 2.12% 12.89% 12.61% $ 152.97 $ 130.02
HML
0.5 (6m )
Mkt - RFR , SMB ,
HML
1.3 0.0001 > 0.54 0.142 -3.22 0.0001> 0.436 1.80% 16.32% 15.95% $ 130.61 $ 111.01
Final
Model
Mkt - RFR, SMB,
HML
1.44 0.0001 > 0.55 0.017 -2.19 0.0001 > 0.32 1.56% 16 .63% 16 .26% $ 102 .32 $ 86 .97
Source: Dartmouth K. French Faculty
E3. Forecasted Land and Expand and Retain Revenue
USD $ (in millions) 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F
Land Revenue 18.3 24.1 55.7 69.9 111.0 158.6 222.0 303.0 364.4 389.9 413.5
Expand Revenue 18.8 25.7 42.1 74.1 124.8 209.0 347.7 569.3 797.2 939.1 1090.0
Retained Revenue 48.7 81.8 155.7 253.8 425.1 698.8 1128.3 1790.6 2794.6 4292.0 6490.1
Source: Team Analysis
Azusa Pacific University l 24
E4. Global 2000 Customers
New Customer Changes Over Global 2000 Customers Change Ratio shows the ratio of new customers added by Alteryx to
new customers added by Alteryx that are within the Global 2000. Global 2000 Customer Forecast shows the historical and
forecasting number of customers that are within the Global 2000.
Source: Company Filings and Team Analysis
ES. Customer Growth
The customer growth chart shows the historical and forecasted model for the customer growth (black) using a sigmoidal
function anchored to 4.5 *1936 potential Global 2000 cust omers, because we estimate Alteryx could capture up to 1936 of
the Global 2000 and these customers currently represent 1 out of 4.5 of the company's customers, which limits the
sigmoidal to roughly 12000 customers during this period. However, it is fitted to the historical customer count (blue) with a
linear fit to customer additions of the short term model without the constraint (gray). The customer growth rate chart
shows the historical and forecasted model for this rate using a modified sigmoidal fun cti on, absolute error, weighted
constraints for the cost function, and gradient descent for the learning function with maximum iterations of 20000.
Source: Company Filings and Team Analysis
Azusa Pacific University l 25
F. Corporate Governance
F1. Executive Leader Descriptions
Executive Title Alteryx Career History Description
Dean Chief CEO from 1997 Dean Stoecker is the current CEO, Chairman, and Co-founder of Alteryx . Dean has
Stoecker, 62 Executive helped grow Alteryx from a spatial business intelligence company to a data analytics
Officer, Co-founder from 1997 company. Dean received his undergraduate degree in International Business from
Chairman, the University of Colorado, Boulder, and his MBA from Pepperdine Graziadio School
Co-founder Tenure with Alteryx: 23years of Business.
Scott Jones, President & CRO from January, 2017
56 Chief Revenue
Officer President from August, 2018
Tenure with Alteryx: 2 years
Scott Jones joined Alteryx in the beginning of 2017 as the President and Chief
Revenue Officer. Scott received a bachelor's California State University, Chino, and
his MBA from Pepperdine Graziadio Business School. Scott worked at SAP and
Business Objects as COO for the Database and Technology Division. Scott also spent
3 years as SVP of the Americas for the sales division of Tableau. At Alteryx, Scott is
responsible for the global growth and sales of Alteryx.
Olivia Adams, Chief CCO from 1997 Olivia Adams is one of the Co-founders of Alteryx and the current Chief Customer
57 Customer Officer. Olivia graduated with a marketing degree from Castleton University in 1984.
Officer, Co-founder from 1997 Before Co-founding Alteryx, Olivia served as an account executive and manager for
Co-founder, IMS, Donnelley Marketing Information Services, and Strategic Mapping. Olivia is the
Executive Vice EVP, Marketing from 1997 CCO and is responsible for growing the Alteryx community and launching the annual
President of Inspire conference.
Marketing Tenure with Alteryx: 23years
Kevin Rubin, Chief CFO from April, 2016
45 Financial
Officer
Tenure with Alteryx: 3 years
Kevin Rubin joined Alteryx in 2016 as the CFO after a seasoned career as a CFO at
other data management and software companies. Kevin graduated with a degree in
economics from UC Santa Barbara and is an inactive CPA holder. Before joining
Alteryx, Kevin was the CFO at Data Direct Networks, Pictage, and MSC Software. At
Alteryx, Kevin is responsible for financial management.
Derek Chief CTO from August, 2018
Knudsen, 46 Technology
Officer
Tenure with Alteryx: 1 year
Derek Knudsen joined the Alteryx team in August of 2018 as the CTO, responsible for
using technology to drive strategic growth and scale all technology initiatives. Prior
to joining Alteryx, Derek was a partner at Credera, the VP of Technology at Irvine
Company, and held multiple strategic and technology roles at Avanade . Derek got his
undergraduate degree in Electrical engineering from the University of Arizona and
his MBA from USC Marshall School of Business.
Sharmila Chief Strategy CSO from April, 2019
Mulligan, 53 Officer
Tenure with Alteryx: <1 year
Sharm iila Mulligan came on board in 2019 as the CSO from Feature Labs, where she
was the CEO at the time of the acquisition . Sharmila is responsible for the operations
in the Bay Area, the overall strategy of the company, and the essential technology
partnerships. Sharmila has significant experience in market creation and strategy
through her experience at multiple renowned firms.
Chris Lal, 46 Chief Legal CLO from August, 2016
Officer
Corporate Secretary from
2016
Tenure with Alteryx: 3.5 years
Chris Lal has served as the Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary at Alteryx
since 2016. Chris is responsible for legal affairs at Alteryx . Chris graduated from USC
Gould School of Law and had 18 years of practicing law and being a general counsel
for corporations. Prior to joining Alteryx, Chris served as the Vice President and
General Counsel for Tillys.
Alan Jacobson Chief Data CDAO from April, 2019
and Analytics
Officer
Tenure with Alteryx: <1 year
Alan Jacobson has been at Alteryx since April, 2019 and serves as the Chief Data and
Analytics Offer. Prior to starting at Alteryx, Alan was the director of global analytics at
Ford. It is important to note that Ford is Alteryx's largest customer with over 6,000
seats. After receiving a masters degree in Mechanical Engineering from Virginia Tech,
Alan joined Ford in data analytics and governance.
Amy Chief CDAOfromJuly,2019
Heidersbach, Marketing
51 Officer
Tenure with Alteryx: <1 year
Amy Heidersbach is a recent addition to the (-suites at Alteryx having joined as the
Chief Marketing Officer inJuly, 2019. Amy is responsible for the go to market strategy
of Alteryx, and marketing initiatives. Amy is currently located in Broomfield,
Colorado. Prior to joining Alteryx, Amy Heidersbach was the CMO at CareerBuilder
and held high marketing positions at Capital One, Needle, and PayPal.
Scott Chief COO from December, 2010
Davidson, 54 Operating
Officer
Tenure with Alteryx: >1 year
Scott Davidson was appointed to the role of COO on December 1st, 2019. Prior to
joining Alteryx, Scott has had experience serving as CFO's for a few different
companies . Scott was the CFO of Docker Inc., CFO/COO for Hortonworks, and for
Quest Software. Scott also holds an MBA in Finance from the University of Miami
Source: Alteryx Press Releases, LinkedIn
Azusa Pacific University l 26
F2. Board Member Description
Board
Member
Title Alteryx Description
History
Dean Stoecker, 62 Chairman of the Board Member since Dean Stoecker is the current CEO, Chairman, and Co-founder of Alteryx.
1997 Dean was among three individuals that helped find SRC LLC, now known as
Alteryx, in 1997. Dean has been the CEO of SRC LLC/Alteryx since the start
of the company and has helped grow it from a spatial business intelligence
company to a public data analytics company. Dean received his
undergraduate degree in International Business from the University of
Colorado, Boulder, and his MBA from Pepperdine Graziadio School of
Business. Dean has received multiple distinguished awards in recent years
and remains an active philanthropist, often leveraging his position to
create CSR initiatives such as Alteryx for Good.
John Bellizzi, 61 Member of the:
Nominating and Corporate
GovernanceCommittee
Member since John Bellizzi was one of the early investors in Alteryx, and continues to
March, 2011 support the company through his presence on the Nominating and
Corporate Governance Committee. John is the current global head of
corporate development at Thomson Reuters Corporation, an integration
information-based solutions company that he has been a part of for over
14 years.
Jeff Haring, 55 Member Member since Jeff Haring is a board member of Alteryx who seeks to help advise on
September, global growth strategies. Jeff is the co-founder and current managing of
2014 Insight Venture Partners, a venture capital and private equity firm that led
the $60 million USD Series B funding of Alteryx in 2014.
Charles Cory, 63 Independent Director Member since Charles Cory is the current Independent Director of the board, the chair of
August, 2016 the Compensation Committee, and a member of the audit committee .
Charles has an extensive background in banking, working at Morgan
Stanley for over 33 years and retiring as the Chairman of Global
Technology Banking. Charles is also the Independent Director and board
member at ezCater and Lumeris . Charles is also an angel investor in the
greater Virginia area.
Chair of the:
Compensation Committee
Member ofthe:
Audit Committee
Timothy Maudlin,
68
Chair of the:
Audit Committee
Member since Timothy Maudlin has been serving on the board of Alteryx since 2016 as
December, the Chair of the Audit Committee. Timothy received his Masters in
2015 Management for Northwestern University and has extensive experience as
a board member with companies from multiple industries. Timothy also
has experience with tech companies as he is the current Independent
Director at Web.com.
Kimberly Alexy, 49 Chair of the:
Nominating and Corporate
Governance Committee
Member since Kimberly Alexy, a seasoned finance professional, is the current Chair of the
February, Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee as well as a member of
2017 the Audit Committ ee. Kimberly is a current principal of a private
investment fund that she started back in 2005. Kimberly began her career
as a sell-side analyst for Technology stocks on Wall Street. Since her tenure
on Wall Street, Kimbery has served on many different public and private
boards in varying capacities.
Member ofthe:
Audit Committee
Eileen Schloss, 62 Member of the:
Compensation Committee
Nominating and Corporate
Governance Committee
Member since Eileen Schloss joined the Alteryx board after a seasoned career as an
May, 2017 executive. Eileen spent her career as an executive for many different large
companies on the HR side of the business. Aside from working at Apple
and Charles Schwab, Eileen has experience working at many high growth
companies to help drive strategic initiatives through the HR department.
Mark Anderson, 55 Member of the:
Compensation Committee
Member since Mark Anderson, one of the newer additions to the board, serves as a
October, 2018 member of the Compensation Committee. Mark has very applicable
experience to Alteryx as he spent most of his career helping young
companies grow and scale. Prior to joining Alteryx, Mark was the President
of Palo Alto Networks.
Source: Alteryx Press Releases, LinkedIn
Azusa Pacific University l 27
F3. Corporate Governance Rating
In order to analyze the quality of corporate governance Alteryx; the board, each individual committee, and their impact on
shareholder rights are evaluated on a 1 to 4 scale. The basis for the following criteria is set forth in the CFAs, The Corporate
Governance of Listed Companies: A Manual for Investors (3rd Edition), as well as the rules and requirements set forth by
the NYSE.
Legend:
1- The company failed to follow the set forth criteria
2- The company failed to follow the criteria more than it succeeded
3- The company succeeded to follow the criteria more than it failed
4- The company is fully compliant with the criteria
Criteria I Description I Rating Alteryx Current State
Board of Directors
Independence A board should be composed of a majority of
independent directors with the ability to act
independent of C-level management.
4 Five out of the eight board members are
independent (62.5% majority) . Non independent
members include Dean Stoecker (Alteryx CEO), John
Bellizzi (SVP at Thomson Reuters, an Alteryx partner
company), and Jeff Haring (MD at Insight Venture,
which led Alteryx Series B funding).
Independence A board's non-management members must meet
regularly without management present
4 Executive sessions of independent directors occur in
conjunction with the regularly scheduled board
meetings.
Experience A board should be comprised of members who
have relevant experience related to the companies
overarching goals and strategy
4 All members have extensive professional experience
and board experience. Members are reasonably
diverse across skill sets and have experience in data
and technology.
Resources A board and its committees should have the
resources to act independent of internal
management.
4 This holds true along with the board's right to hire
and access any external consultant deemed
necessary.
Related-Party
Transactions
Absence of related-party transactions and/or
methods to mitigate conflict of interest if such
transactions do take place.
4 Three related party transactions took place in the
last year that had a value of above $120,000 and all
went through the Alteryx approval process which
includes disclosure to the SEC and ratification by the
Audit Committee.
Elections Shareholders should have the right to elect board
members on a year to year basis.
2 Shareholders are able to vote and elect board
members on a year to year basis, but for staggered
three year terms.
Role Delegation The CEO and Chairman of the Board Role should be
separate.
3 Dean Stoecker is both the CEO and Chairman of the
Board for Alteryx, however, Charles Cory is the
Independent Director to help mitigate the conflict.
Committees Boards must have an Audit, Compensation, and
Nomination committ ee.
4 All three of these committees are present at Alteryx.
Average Score 3.63
Audit Committee
Independence Must be fully composed of independent members. 4 All members meet the requirements of
independence.
Experience Members should have recent and relevant
experience in accounting and/or finance.
4 All members have significant finance and/or
accounting experience.
Control The committee controls the audit budget. 4 In charge of the compensation for independent
auditors and registered accounting firms
Control The committee appoints the external auditor, and
seeks ratification from the shareholders.
4 This is detailed in the written charter and in the SEC
Form 14A shareholders have the right to ratification.
Azusa Pacific University l 28
Size Must be composed of three or more members. 4 Currently composed of three members.
Conflict
Interest
of Members should not be current board
more than three public companies.
members of Kimberly Alexy is currently a member of the audit
committee at four publicly traded companies.
Average Score 3.5
Compensation Committee
Independence Must be fully composed of independent members. 4 All members meet the requirements of
independence.
Communication Regularly communicating with shareowners about
compensation plans.
4 Compensation plans are communicated in the
annual SEC Form 14A and approved by security
holders.
Transparency Disclosures detailing compensation are issued to
shareholders.
4 All board member compensation is clearly set forth
in the annual SEC Form 14A.
Compensation Multiple compensation instruments are to be used,
including equity and stocks.
4 Both cash and stock awards are used for
compensation of board members.
Average Score 4
Nominating/Corporate Governance Committee
Independence Must be fully composed of independent members. 2 John Bellizzi, a member of this committee is not fully
independent as he is the SVP at Thomson Reuters, a
strategic partner company since March 29, 2019.
Independence Nominating committee uses a third party to search
and suggest new board member nominees.
3 In addition to third party resources, the committee
considers the nomination of other members per
referral of Alteryx employees, officers, and board
members.
Attendance Ensures attendance of all board members at regular
meetings.
4 All Board members have attended at least 75% of all
board and committee meetings since IPO. In 2018,
the Board of Directors met seven times.
Average Score 3
Protection of Shareholder Rights
Ownership
Structure
Voting rights should be equal to a shareholders
economic interest. Safeguards should be in place
the case of a dual class stock.
in
Class B common stock has 10 to 1 voting rights
compared to Class A. Safeguards are in place but do
not properly mitigate the inequity.
Voting Power A form of proxy voting is enabled. 4 Proxy voting is enabled via email, telephone, and
internet.
Nomination
Power
Shareholders have the ability to nominate a
member to the board .
4 If a shareholder sees fit, they are able to nominate a
substitute to fill a role on the board .
Information Information should be disclosed regarding a
company's corporate governance and board
practices .
4 Accurate and detailed information regarding Alteryx
corporate governance and board practices are
available to the public and can be accessed through
its website.
Average Score 3.25
Overall Score 3.48
Source: Alteryx Press Releases, LinkedIn
Azusa Pacific University l 29
Top 5 Mutual FundHolders
Mutual Fund
Shares
Percentage
Top 5 Institutional Holders
Institution
Shares
Held
Percentage
The Vanguard Group, Inc. 4,164,451 8.04%
Abdiel Capital Advisors LP 4,014,014 7.75%
Brown Capital Mgmt LLC 3,677,439 7.10%
Capital Research & Mgmt 2,652,231 5.12%
Co.
Whale Rock Capital Mgmt 2,129,622 4.11%
LLC
Shares Outstanding 51,819,830 100.00%
Held
American Funds
Smal/Cap World Fund
2,834,100 5.47%
Brown Capital Mgmt
Small Company Fund
2,103,974 4.06%
American Funds New
Perspective Fund
1,800,000 3.47%
American Funds Growth
Fund
1,464,261 2.83%
Vanguard Total Stock
Market Index
1,314,396 2.54%
Shares Outstanding 51,819,830 100.00%
F4. Leadership Locations
Alteryx, based out of Irvine, has a majority of its C-level leadership working from headquarters. The CTO and CMO are
based out of Broomfield, CO. It is appropriate that Derek Knudsen, the CTO, works from Broomfield as the majority of the
development work is performed there. Sharmila Mulligan, the CSO, joined the company through the acquisition of
ClearStory Data, where she was the CEO at the time. Sharmila Mulligan is located in Menlo Park to oversee the operations
of ClearStory Data and to help establish a foothold for Alteryx in Silicon Valley.
Source: Alteryx Press Releases, LinkedIn
FS. Shareholder Ownership
The following table depicts the top 5 institutional holders and top 5 mutual fund holders of Alteryx outstanding
Class A common st ock .
Source: CNN Money
Azusa Pacific University l 30
F6. CSR Initiatives Chart
Initiative Description
"Alteryx for Good" Alteryx for Good is the company's main CSR initiative. Through this initiative Alteryx provides
licenses for its product to students, educators, and educational institutions completely free of
charge. Alteryx is already present in many educational institutions, and this initiative will help the
company to further integrate into the workflows of the next generation of data scientists.
Alteryx for Good Co-Lab The Alteryx for Good Co-Lab is a group of employees, users, and partners of the company that
comes together to help non-profits leverage Alteryx for growth. The Alteryx for Good program
feeds into the Co-Lab as students and educators who implement the software can become part of
the Co-Lab to help their communities.
Alteryx Associates - Doing Good Alteryx offers each individual associate 20 hours of paid time off per year to volunteer for an
organization of their choice. In 2017, Alteryx associates gave more than 1,200 hours of community
service through this program.
F7. Beneish M-Score
The Beneish Model is a series of calculations resulting in an "M-Score," a value that can be interpreted to give an indication
of whether or not a company is likely to be an earnings manipulator. A score higher than -1.78 indicates that a company is
likely to be an earnings manipulator. The "M-Score" calculated for Alteryx was -2.225, indicating that the company is not an
earnings manipulator.
M-Score Q3 2019/2018
Days' Sales Receivables Index 1.518299247
Current Year Receivables
Previous Prior Receivables
Sales
67704
44592
350610
Gross Margin Index 1.0302
Previous Gross Margin 0.90400445
Current Gross Margin 0.877505702
Asset Quality Index 1.982123908
Current Noncurrent Assets except PPE 194264
Previous Noncurrent Assets except PPE 98008
Total Assets 1239309
Sales Growth Index 1.922372577
Current Sales 350610
Previous Sales 182384
Depreciation Index 1.056593243
Previous Depreciation 4374
Current Depreciation 4077
PPE 15229
Sales, General, and Administrative Expenses Index 1.745683152
Current SGA 239499
Previous SGA 137195
Sales 350610
Accruals Index -0.196803219
Income Before Extraordinary Items 35200
Cash from Operations 279100
Total Assets 1239309
Leverage Index 2.26852806
Current Long-Term Debt 623720
Current Liabilities 190795
Total Assets 1239309
Previous Long- Term Debt 168255
Final M-Score -2.225086068
Source: Company Filings

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CFA Regional Challenge Report

  • 1. 18 CFA Institute Research Challenge The CFA Institute Research Challenge is a global competition that tests the equity research and valuation, investment report writing, and presentation skills of university students. The following report was prepared in compliance with the Official Rules of the CFA Institute Research Challenge, is submitted by a team of university students as part of this annual educational initiative and should not be considered a professional report. Disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest The author(s), or a member of their household, of this report does not hold a financial interest in the securities of this company. The author(s), or a member of their household, of this report does not know of the existence of any conflicts of interest that might bias the content or publication of this report. Receipt of compensation Compensation of the author(s) of this report is not based on investment banking revenue. Position as an officer or a director The author(s), or a member of their household, does not serve as an officer, director, or advisory board member of the subject company. Market making The author(s) does not act as a market maker in the subject company’s securities. Disclaimer The information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources generally available to the public and believed by the author(s) to be reliable, but the author(s) does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. The information is not intended to be used as the basis of any investment decisions by any person or entity. This information does not constitute investment advice, nor is it an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. This report should not be considered to be a recommendation by any individual affiliated with CFA Orange County, CFA Institute, or the CFA Institute Research Challenge with regard to this company’s stock. hosted by CFA Society Orange County Azusa Pacific University
  • 2. Alteryx (AYX) New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Sector: Technology Alteryx has consistently demonstrated its ability to increase its customer spending through expansion allowing the company to have a strong competitive advantage for preventing competitors from accessing and expanding into its current (retain) and future (expand) revenue streams. Alteryx’s great customer service and ability to rapidly integrate its product has led to high levels of customer retention and a strong revenue moat. However, Alteryx has had diminishing rates of new customer growth for the past five years. As powerful low cost alternatives enter the market, smaller companies have less of an incentive to pay for Alteryx’s relatively expensive platform. Alteryx has been turning to larger companies which is leading to a convergence of new customers from the Forbes Global 2000 companies which constrains its future revenue growth as its competitive market space continues to decrease. Investment Summary Competitive and Product Positioning Revenue Moat and Diminishing Customer Growth Alteryx quickly outgrew smaller companies in the data analytics market, but is now facing serious competition from large competitors such as Microsoft, SAS, and TIBCO. As Alteryx comes into this new level of competition, the Alteryx Platform loses most of its competitive advantages. Alteryx believes its product is end-to-end, but it does not have as many capabilities as some of the major competitors in the market. Alteryx is spending a decreasing fraction of its revenue on research and development to focus on sales and marketing which represents a turn away from innovation and toward marketing the company's existing product, making it difficult for the company to remain competitive in a rapidly changing market. To arrive at our “SELL” recommendation and target price of $86.97, we performed a DCF valuation. We computed our DCF valuation model using the forecasted future revenue growth and financial performance of Alteryx with a 3-stage growth model. This model forecasts Alteryx's financial performance by forecasting its financials in the short-term (0-1 ½ years), medium-term (1 ½-5 ¼ years), and long-term (5 ¼-7 years). Our DCF valuation utilizes a calculated WACC of 16.26% based on the Fama French 3-factor model and a terminal growth rate of 5.1% based on an average of the US GDP growth rate and the data analytics industry growth rate. DCF We issue a SELL recommendation on Alteryx (AYX) with an intrinsic price of $86.97, representing a downside of 37% from the February 7th, 2020 closing price of $137.68. Our recommendation is based on our DCF model which shows that, despite having both qualitative merits and concerns, Alteryx is overvalued. Over-Reliance on Acquisitions In the past three years, Alteryx relied on four different product-driven acquisitions to build its end-to- end platform. The company’s R&D spending has contributed little to the actual development of its product, indicating that its product growth will be hindered by the lack of availability of potential acquisitions. Additionally, the company spends a sizable amount on R&D with an entire R&D-focused facility in Colorado, yet this spending is not resulting in any material gains for the company’s product. Inorganic growth exposes the company to the potential risk that the technologies acquired will not integrate well with the existing platform. Alteryx holds $642M in cash and $231.9M in short term debt as of Q3 2019. The company may deploy this capital for growth strategies such as acquisitions, sales and marketing, and research and development. The company acquired this cash through senior convertible notes at low interest rates of .5% and 1% for different note maturities. Alteryx’s capital structure is 69% liabilities and 31% equity. The company is leveraging debt to increase capital through the sale of 2023, 2024, and 2026 convertible senior notes, amounting to $1.03B. Capital for Growth Source: Yahoo Finance Source: Team Analysis Recommendation: SELL Closing Price (Feb 7, 2020): $137.68 Target Price: $86.97 (37% Downside) Source: Company Filings, Team Analysis
  • 3. The Alteryx Platform is a subscription-based software consisting of four elements that integrate to form an end-to-end data analytics solution for customers. Alteryx’s software is designed to be easy to use without extensive data science knowledge or any programming experience (Appendix:B1). Alteryx Designer is the core software solution and all of Alteryx’s customers own at least one seat. Each seat has a list price of $5,195. Designer allows users to prepare, combine, analyze, predict, and visualize data in a code environment or a code-free, drag-and-drop environment. Designer offers the ability to generate repeatable workflows simplifying the spreadsheet creation process to expedite routine data analytics. Alteryx Server is an upgrade option and is recommended to companies once they have 8-12 seats for Designer for a company-wide annual fee of $58,500. Server transitions the platform from an individual software on a single desktop (Designer) to a secure on-premise computer or 3rd party cloud. The 24/7 web-based environment allows for scheduling fully automatable routine workflows and analytics, sharing and publication of analytics between members of the organization, and corporate governance of data all with the advantage of Alteryx’s patented systems that are optimized for big data. Alteryx Connect is available to companies for $39,900 per year as an extension to Alteryx Server. Connect aggregates data from all employees to create an organization-specific glossary that allows every employee to collaborate with any workflow, call previously created workflows by others in the organization, and review other employees’ data sources. Alteryx Connect was developed through the 2017 acquisition of Semanta. Alteryx Promote is the fourth aspect of the Alteryx Platform. Promote is part of the overall product which deploys predictive models and customer relationship management applications. Promote allows the IT department to add R and Python code to customize workflows. Every customer has either a one-year or three-year subscription with Alteryx Designer, and roughly half of them have moved into the Server and Connect contracts. Azusa Pacific University l 2 Business Description Product: The Alteryx Platform Alteryx Incorporated (NYSE: AYX) was co-founded in 1997 by the current CEO Dean Stoecker as a spatial analytics company. In 2015, Alteryx transitioned its business focus from spatial analytics to data analytics, broadening its target market to firms in every sector. The stock’s offering price was $14 per share at IPO on March 24th, 2017. Alteryx is headquartered in Irvine, California where it recently signed a new lease for an office space near the Spectrum Center. This location is one of seven in the United States, and one of 18 worldwide. Alteryx currently has a diverse mix of C-level executives. The diversity has both its merits and concerns; there is a strong history of successful leadership, yet a high degree of uncertainty regarding the new additions. Five out of the ten C-level executives have been in leadership positions at Alteryx since its IPO, two of which have been in a leadership role since its founding 23 years ago. This showcases that there is an established leadership core in place with a track record of success. However, within the last year, Alteryx has added four new C-level executives to its management team, accounting for 40% of total executive leadership. The position of COO was created and filled for the first time in December of 2019. The addition of new executives in a short time period is concerning for Alteryx leadership moving forward. All four C-level additions have experience in their respective positions and industry; yet, not proven they will be able to adjust to the established leadership and culture of Alteryx. Source: Company Filings Source: HG Insights Source: Company Filings Executive Leadership Alteryx is making significant steps toward capitalizing on a growing international market for data analytics software. The company has 18 offices throughout the world and holds its annual Inspire Conferences in the United States, Europe, and–beginning in 2020–in the Asia Pacific Region. Alteryx’s international revenue has grown from just under 20% of total revenue to nearly 30% of total revenue in the past three years. Its product is offered in eight languages and new languages are in development. The company’s international growth initiatives have had an increasing impact on their revenue growth over time. Leveraging Strong International Opportunity Source: Company Filings
  • 4. Increase of Specialized Users Data analytics was first created and developed by IT departments, and has traditionally been delegated to them. The growing technological sophistication of non-IT individuals has led to employee use of data analytics software without the need for interference from their IT department. The potential user market for data analytics platforms is expanding from IT workers to individuals across all specializations and business units interested in analyzing data effectively and efficiently for their role within the firm. Use of technology has seen global growth Over the past decade the world has seen increased usage of artificial intelligence, cloud services, computing power, and data analytics. The demand for data workers grew by about 40% in 2017. The demand for data science and analytics is projected to experience 15% growth over the 5-year period from 2017-2022. Data science and related fields continue to increase There is an increasing number of business degree programs offering data analytics oriented courses and programs which are preparing the new workforce. In 2015, there were 2M job listings for data science analysts and the number of listings continues to increase as companies want a more efficient data solution. The combined job growth of math and statistics, which also includes data analytics, is expected to grow 30% from 2018-2028. Time and cost savings with data analytics Switching from spreadsheet analysis to data analytics software increases firm efficiency and effectiveness. It saves twenty-six hours per week on average, equating to an industry wide time savings of $60B annually. The increased awareness of these cost savings drives demand for data preparation and analytics software. Azusa Pacific University l 3 Industry Overview and Competitive Advantage Industry Growth Demand Drivers The Global Big Data Market is forecasted for an 11% CAGR with a market size of $103B by 2027. Alteryx is in the sub-market of Big Data Software which grew 32% in 2017 and is expected to continue growing at a 16% CAGR with a market size of $46B by 2027. Within the Big Data Software Market, Alteryx is in the analytics application and data science pipelines market, forecasted to grow at 26% and 29% respectively. Alteryx will benefit from industry growth within one of the fastest- growing sectors of the Big Data market. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: FRED St. Louis Source: Team Analysis Source: Wikibon Source: Company Filings In March of 2010, Alteryx changed its name from SRC, LLC., to Alteryx, LLC. In March of 2011, Alteryx transitioned from a limited liability company registered in California to a corporation registered in Delaware. Alteryx has grown through five acquisitions since 2017 (Appendix: B2), all playing roles in either marketing and/or R&D. These five companies are currently listed as subsidiaries of Alteryx and are spread out across the United States, Australia, and the Czech Republic. Each international office is registered in its country of operation as a subsidiary of Alteryx. Organizational Structure Alteryx serves customers across most major industries. Currently, Alteryx has over 5,600 customers worldwide, 680 of which are Forbes Global 2000 companies. Alteryx has created a product that targets citizen data scientists of different analytical capacities across major industries. This is accomplished through providing a single database solution as opposed to the traditional 4 to 7 tools that are used in data analytics. Customers of Alteryx are recorded by contract; therefore, Alteryx does not count the number of ‘seats’ or individual licenses towards its published customer count but rather how many firms it holds contracts with (a subsidiary or separate division of a company may count as an additional customer if it is invoiced separately). Alteryx currently has customers in over 80 countries and no customer accounts for more than 10% of total revenue. Customer Base Macroeconomics The GDP growth rate in the US has ranged from 1-3% since 2008. Alteryx's revenue will benefit from a continuation of this growth rate as the economy expands. Alteryx has a stable revenue stream because its revenue is contract-based. Once software becomes part of daily business functions, companies are less likely to change it. Alteryx benefits from a switching cost competitive advantage
  • 5. Azusa Pacific University l 4 International Outlook Alteryx believes data is a global solution and is expanding its product offering abroad. International revenue nearly doubled in 2017 and 2018; contributing to 30% of total revenue in 2018. Movement into the international market expanded Alteryx’s potential customer base and created a significant new geographic revenue stream for the company. Alteryx is continuing to expand internationally through 8 language offerings (Appendix:C2), increasing the number of sales offices, and holding an Annual Inspire Conference in Europe and Asia (Appendix:C3). Alteryx began opening international offices in 2016 and now 11 of its 18 offices are located internationally in North America, Europe, Asia, Australia (Appendix:C1). The main international competitors are targeting key geographic locations such as Australia, Singapore, Japan, Dubai, and major European cities. Market Position Alteryx holds a weak market position as it moves into competition with big technology companies. The Alteryx Product was competitive against niche players, but is not as capable or innovative as other developed products in the market. In our own heuristic model, Alteryx scored in the bottom half of its industry both in competitive positioning and product positioning, leading to an overall weak market position. Product Comparison Assessing the usability, ‘deployability’, end-to-end functionality, ability to innovate, functionality, and support, Alteryx's analytics platform is not unique compared to other products on the market. The product also has a weaker ‘deployability’, scalability, and ability to innovate within the market (Appendix:C5). The Alteryx Platform is not differentiated within the market and compared to its competitors it scored near the bottom on product positioning. Competition Alteryx’s largest threat is rivalry against existing competitors (Appendix:C10), most of which operate in the private sector. Competitive positioning was determined by revenue, international presence, product cost per seat per year, brand recognition, number of language offerings, and number of employees (Appendix:C4). The factors measure the resources each company has to expand market space. After comparing Alteryx to its main competitors, the company scored in the bottom half for its competitive position. Microsoft Alteryx’s biggest competitor, Microsoft (MSFT), competes with Alteryx’s analytics platform with two software platforms: Microsoft Power BI and Azure. Power BI has software functions for the typical worker in data visualization and lightweight predictive analytics and Azure for data scientists in advanced analytics with code integration. Alteryx’s strength is an advanced level of predictive analytic ability code-free. Microsoft has the vision to develop predictive analytics within the Power BI platform because it currently offers lightweight predictive analytics but has not fully executed that functionality within the product. Microsoft’s R&D spending of $14,726M is significantly higher than Alteryx’s $43.4M, giving Microsoft the ability to move into the “code-free advanced predictive analytics” market space. Microsoft’s sales strategy is to penetrate the market at a low price to gain a large customer base and increase revenue through additional products and developing its product, whereas Alteryx’s sales strategy is to land its product into a non-technical department and expand its revenue through adding additional users  (Appendix:C6). Source: Team Analysis Source: Company Filings Source:  Company Filings of Tableau, Alteryx and Microstrategy Source: Team Analysis Domestic Outlook The United States is Alteryx’s main geographic revenue source, accounting for 70% of revenue in 2018. Revenue in the United States has increased YOY for the last 3 years. Alteryx established a foundation of customers within the United States, before expanding internationally. The company's largest current opportunity domestically is pursuing the "expand" part of its business model with its current customers through it’s direct sales team. because of the time and money required to switch data analytics providers after the software has been integrated into business operations. Alteryx’s revenue may be negatively affected by lower business investment during the next recession. However, Alteryx's target customer is the average business analyst that wants to use data to make better business decisions and cut standard operating costs. These benefits along with persistently low interest rates will likely continue to incentivize businesses to invest in data analytics software.
  • 6. Revenue Recognition Cash Allocation Acquisitions Acquisition spending is inconsistent YOY. In 2017, Alteryx acquired Semanta for $5.66M and Yhat for $10.8M. In 2018, it acquired Alteryx ANZ for $5.7M. In 2019, ClearStory Data was acquired for $19.6M and Feature Labs for $25.5M. Acquisition spending only accounted for 12% of revenue in 2019 (Appendix:D4). Research and Development R&D expenses have been increasing YOY. Alteryx spent $29.3M on R&D in 2017, $43.4M in 2018, and is expected to spend $68.3M in 2019. R&D spending is decreasing as a percentage of revenue due to a higher growth rate in revenue, and a focus on sales and marketing spending. Sales and Marketing Sales and Marketing spending has increased YOY from $51M in 2017 to $109M in 2018 to $180M expected in 2019. Alteryx is pursuing a sales push using its inside sales team to create contracts with new customers and its direct sales team to renew contracts and expand existing contracts (Appendix:D5). The company partners with 188 value-added resellers throughout the world, who work directly with channel managers to pursue a go-to-market strategy. VARS contribute about 20% of Alteryx’s revenue, and the company’s internal sales team delivers the remaining 80% of sales. Azusa Pacific University l 5 Source: Company Filings Financial Analysis Land and Expand Alteryx’s strategy is to use a “land and expand” business model to effectively grow sales. The strategy is to offer a free trial of Designer, leading to the sale of at least one seat of the software; this is “land revenue.” Alteryx then pursues contract expansion with the customer through the purchase of additional seats in other departments or upgrading to Server, this is “expand revenue.” Retained revenue consists of the portion of contract revenue that is recognized on a consistent basis after the initial “one-time” partial revenue recognition under ASC 606. Both land revenue and expand revenue are forecasted to grow. In 2016, land and expand contributed nearly equal amounts of total revenue. In 2019, expand revenue began growing at a faster rate than land revenue. If the customer market becomes saturated at any point in time, the "expand" portion of its business model creates a viable and sustainable stream of revenue. Alteryx’s retained revenue accounts for the greatest portion of its total revenue. In 2019, Land revenue was 69.8M, expand revenue was 74.8M, and retained revenue was 252.6M (Appendix:E3). Growth Strategies FASB updated the revenue recognition standard for all public companies reporting under GAAP from ASC 605 to ASC 606 effective in fiscal 2018. Under ASC 605, Alteryx recognized all of its revenue evenly over the life of the contract. Under ASC 606, Alteryx recognizes a larger portion of its contract revenue upfront when the software is first made available to the customer and then recognizes the remaining revenue evenly over the life of the contract. Adopting ASC 606 is a significant factor in the revenue increase in 2018, leading to Alteryx’s first year of positive net income. Source: Company Filings and Team Analysis Source: Company Filings
  • 7. 3-Stage Forecasting Model Azusa Pacific University l 6 DuPont Analysis As a software company, Alteryx benefits from paying one-time development costs for the software and selling the same product multiple times, driving a long-run increase in net profit margin. With an asset turnover of 45%, Alteryx has demonstrated its ability to effectively use its assets to generate sales. Asset turnover decreased in 2019 due to the large increase in cash from the 2024 and 2026 convertible senior notes in Q3 2019, but is expected to normalize as Alteryx deploys cash to drive sales. Assets have increased due to the IPO, convertible notes, and intangible assets, while equity has increased at a slower rate due to a decrease in the accumulated deficit from the 2018 profit and unrealized gains on investments in US treasury bonds, leading to an overall increase in the equity multiplier. The increase in cash allocated to growth opportunities has led to higher sales revenue and an overall positive ROE, which we expect to grow over time. Financial Leverage Alteryx's capital structure is 69% debt and 31% equity. Alteryx has taken out long-term debt to increase cash through the 3 series of convertible senior notes. Debt increased from 47% of equity in 2017 to 51% of equity in 2018 primarily due to the 2023 notes and increased to 67% of equity in Q3 2019 due to 2024 and 2026 notes. The $800M offering of 2024 and 2026 notes adds $623M in long-term debt and $122M in equity to the balance sheet in Q3 2019. While Alteryx is leveraging debt for growth, it is inexpensive debt paying just 0.5% interest on the 2023 and 2024 notes and 1% interest on the 2026 notes. As the convertible senior notes mature in 2024 and 2026 or Alteryx pays off the notes in cash, equity will become a greater percentage of the capital structure. Source: Company Filings Source: Company Filings Source: Company Filings and Team Analysis Convertible Senior Notes In 2018, Alteryx issued $230M of convertible senior notes maturing in 2023 with a coupon rate of 0.5%. As of Q3 2019, all but $67M of these notes have been repurchased by the company.. In 2019, Alteryx offered $400M of convertible senior notes maturing in 2024 with a 0.5% coupon rate and $400M of convertible senior notes maturing in 2026 with a 1% coupon rate. The company’s current cash position is mainly comprised of the proceeds from the issuance of these notes. With a large amount of cash available, the company may allocate it toward strategic acquisitions or other growth opportunities. Alteryx entered into capped call agreements with institutional holders for all three series of notes. If the bonds are converted by their holders, the company can exercise these capped call agreements to offset the potential dilution of the stock and therefore avoid negatively impacting shareholders. Valuation We issue a SELL recommendation on Alteryx (AYX) with an intrinsic price of $86.97, representing an downside of 37% from the February 7th, 2020 closing price of $137.68. Our recommendation is based on a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation with a 3-stage growth forecasting model projecting through fiscal 2026. We implemented a 3-stage growth forecasting model that utilizes a short-term, medium-term, and long-term growth period to project Alteryx's future earnings. Our decision to forecast the financial statements using a 3-stage growth model is based on different time frames consisting of differing effects on a company's growth, especially for a relatively young and high growth company such as Alteryx. The three stages have been forecasted based on the internal dynamics of the company’s financials, with Alteryx’s revenue growth being constrained by its finite potential customer pool, limited market space, and the internal dynamics of Alteryx’s customer land, expand, and retention. Alteryx’s cost of revenue, sales and marketing, general and administrative, and R&D expenses are modeled non-linearly based on changes in Alteryx's internal financial growth rates, ratios, and Source: Team Analysis
  • 8. Short-Term The short-term growth model is based on trends and the internal dynamics of Alteryx’s ratios and verticals from the company’s historical quarterly financial data dating back to Q1 2014. Each line item was forecasted by taking a weighted average of past growth and applying non-linear models to project future growth. This methodology was implemented for our short-term component of our forecast since it is the most accurate representation of a firm’s performance in the immediate future barring any known material changes like interest payments for Alteryx’s convertible notes, tax revenue, 606 revenue recognition, and irregular income. Medium-Term In the medium-term we modeled the growth rates on financial data derived from Alteryx’s internal dynamics, and the historical data, modeled limitations to customer growth, and estimated market sizes of similar public companies. We used historical data from the land and expand model to forecast revenue (Appendix:E3). We analyzed Alteryx’s 3 publicly traded competitors, Tableau, Qlik, and Microstrategy, to determine industry standards in relation to change in operating expenses and cost of revenue as a percentage of revenue along with other ratios. Interest expense was modelled off the expected maturities of the senior convertible notes. This growth forecasting model was implemented as our medium-term model because it allowed us to constrain Alteryx’s financials in our research but implemented some foreseen “lag-time” in order to incorporate the organization's short term financial performance. Long-Term The long-term was modelled off the Big Data Analytics projected industry growth rate of 16%. When examining other comparable companies in a similar state, we observed a decrease in revenue growth after a few years as those companies reverted to or eventually lagged behind the industry growth rate. Having Alteryx revert to the forecasted industry growth rate in the long term provides us a growth rate to safely anchor to as the forecast is projected further into the future and the uncertainty increases. This model was used in order to best represent the growth realized over our increasingly distant projections to the end of 2026. Azusa Pacific University l 7 verticals and by comparison to similar metrics in other comparable companies at a similar stage in their growth. Using a customized method allowed us to model a modified nonlinear forecast and mathematically allowed us to embed features from our research like asymptote values and smooth transitions from exponential growth, to linear growth, to diminishing growth, and finally to a flat, declining, or linear growth state fit to historical data. Any other constraints that we could not fit in the model directly we could fit in through our constrained optimization. We strategically weighted a smooth transition between trend based growth rates, internal dynamics/market constrained growth rates, and industry growth rates to create an overall growth projection. In our model, the weighting of each growth rate slowly transitions between all three stages, transferring the majority weight of the overall growth rate from short-term to medium-term (at 1 ½ years) and medium-term to long- term (at 5 ½ years) (reference Model Weighting to the right). To account for the change in revenue recognition, we performed all of the forecasts in ASC 605 numbers (reported for 2018 and estimated for 2019) and then reapplied the rate changes to ASC 606 numbers. Land & Expand Revenue Forecast We utilized data provided by our land and expand model (Appendix:E3) to forecast Alteryx’s revenue. An analysis of the rate at which Alteryx was adding customers from the Forbes Global 2,000 revealed Alteryx was transitioning from landing 1 new Global 2,000 company for every 12 total companies added in Q1 2014 (1:12) to a ratio of 1:3 in Q2 2019 (Appendix:E4). Since we observed a clearly growing convergence of our customer growth rate to the Global 2,000 customers growth rate, we constrained our land revenue forecast using a modified logistic model with the annual average of a 1:6 relationship of the Global 2,000. A cap of 1,936 of the Global 2,000 was implemented to represent the potential market due to 64 of the companies either being competitors, already fully integrated with a competitor's product, or us believing they have the ability to create in-house internal software. This 1:6 relationship was used to constrain the total number of customers they would be able to land during our forecast (Appendix:E5). We then calculated land and expand revenue data from revenue, net based retention, and customer growth numbers to solve for the revenue coming from landing contracts with new customers (land revenue) as opposed to expanding contracts with existing customers (expand revenue). This allowed us to see how much revenue comes from customer retention (Appendix:E3). Our model was able to account for a realistic target market, a viable customer growth rate, and most importantly the Alteryx’s land, expand, and retention revenue streams. We forecasted revenue growth through Q4 2026 for a 7 year forecast. Source: Team Analysis Source: Team Analysis Source: Team Analysis
  • 9. WACC The DCF model is the basis for our valuation as it encapsulates our 3-stage forecasted financials. Due to a lack of similar public companies and the absence of a dividend, the DCF model is the most appropriate valuation method for Alteryx. Adjusted Earnings The DCF model values the company based on the Net Present Value of future adjusted earnings and the terminal value. Adjusted earnings is calculated by subtracting operating expenses, interest expense on long-term debt, and taxes from gross profit. We did not adjust for depreciation or capital expenditures (capex) because over a multi-year time frame, depreciation of assets is a true expense to the business as the company eventually must repurchase fully depreciated assets, and capex will remain a constant and integral part of the business while the company is pursuing growth opportunities. Terminal Growth Rate The terminal growth rate of the DCF model is 5.1%. The terminal growth rate is an average of the expected future US GDP growth (1.72%) and the historic 15 year industry growth in the data processing services industry (8.47%). We chose to use an average because we believe the current growth rate of the data analytics industry is too high for a perpetual length of time. WACC was calculated at 16.26% from a 16.63% cost of equity and a 1.99% cost of debt. The cost of equity was calculated by using the Fama-French 3-Factor Model. The three factors utilized in the Fama-French Model were the capital asset pricing model, the small minus big factor, and the high minus low factor (Appendix:E2). Azusa Pacific University l 8 Cost of Revenue and Operating Expenses The short-term model for cost of revenue and operating expenses is based on patterns found within historical financial data. In the medium-term, we took into consideration the relationship similar public companies (Tableau, Qlik, Microstrategy) had between cost of revenue and operating expenses with total revenue and used that data to construct constraints for our model (Appendix:E6). We modelled each aspect of operating expenses (Research and Development, Sales and Marketing, Administrative) separately to form Alteryx’s projected operating expenses. Tax Alteryx has benefitted from a lower than expected tax rate in 2018 and 2019 which may not continue to benefit the company in the future. To account for this income without projecting any growth or diminishing returns, our model discounts operating expenses by the income tax benefit. The adjustment does not affect our 3-stage growth model, but it is accounted for in our valuation. A statutory tax rate of 20.7% was used in the WACC and adjusted earnings DCF calculation. The tax rate was derived from a weighted average according to geographic revenue streams: the US statutory rate of 21% held a weight of 70% and the European estimated rate of 20% held a weight of 30%. DCF Model Investment Risk Business and Operational Risk Inexperienced C-Level Management (B-1) Alteryx has a staff of 10 C-level executives with a mixture of experience and tenure(Appendix:F1). In December of 2019, Alteryx appointed Scott Davidson as the first COO. The executives are spread across different office locations with 7 located in Irvine, CA, 2 in Broomfield, CO, and 1 in Menlo Park, Source: Team Analysis Source: Team Analysis Source: Team Analysis
  • 10. Azusa Pacific University l 9 Source: Team Analysis Source: Team Analysis Source: Company Filings CA; this provides appropriate managerial oversight for staff in varying locations. The Board of Directors is made up of 8 tenured professionals, 5 of which are independent of any ties to the company (Appendix:F3). The board members serve three year terms, and the majority of the current board members began their terms prior to the company’s IPO. The Board’s corporate governance had a score of 3.48 on a scale of 1-4; with 1 being very poor and 4 representing full compliance with NYSE standards and CFA corporate governance guidelines (Appendix:F4). International Expansion (B-2) In order to fund its current international growth and expansion, Alteryx must allocate its domestic profits abroad; amidst this growth, the company risks unsuccessfully growing and scaling its overseas operations and therefore losing domestic profits to a failing international market. Alteryx risks operating too many ventures at once, impairing management's overall control and spreading resources thin. Failure at international expansion has two key impacts: 1) The loss of market share and reputation in the international marketplace, and 2) the negative impact on its domestic market performance. Loss of Competitive Advantage (B-3) As Alteryx starts to compete with larger companies, its competitive advantage is dissipating. The Alteryx Platform utilizes an interface that can be easily adopted by competitors or new startups within the industry. A catalyst of this risk is that the technology industry is full of innovation and growth, causing any competitive advantages to become outdated quickly in a new market, and Alteryx’s lack of innovation prevents them from effectively combating this reality. There are two primary impacts of Alteryx losing its competitive advantage: 1) It would be very difficult for Alteryx to gain and retain customers, and 2) It would force Alteryx to spend significant capital in an attempt to develop further advantages. Clients Become Competition (B-4) Technology companies such as Tableau, acquired by Salesforce, and Microsoft are both customers and partners in a mutually beneficial relationship. There is a risk that one of these current partners decides to develop its product to directly compete with Alteryx. Microsoft has already begun this process by expanding the reach of Power BI through integrating Power Query into Excel and Power BI. Microsoft has trial phases of predictive analytics within Power BI, indicating the company may move into Alteryx’s direct market space soon. Microsoft has a well-known brand and larger R&D team to implement this growth faster than Alteryx can grow. After being acquired by Salesforce, Tableau now has the resources to pursue product development. The impact of this risk is twofold: 1) Alteryx will lose customer revenue currently coming from Microsoft and/or Tableau, and 2) Microsoft and/or Tableau will take customers and market share with a competing product. Dilution from Senior Convertible Notes (I-1) The failure to maintain significant capital to pay off $1.03B senior convertible notes at the maturity date or at the request of the bondholder will lead to an automatic conversion into Class A common stock and could significantly dilute the share price of Alteryx. If all of the outstanding senior notes were converted into Class A common stock and the company was unable to exercise its capped call contracts, 8.15% dilution would occur. The impact of such dilution would be twofold: 1) Alteryx share price drops, and 2) Alteryx’s reputation as a debt holder is weakened. Furthermore, the occurrence of this risk will impact Alteryx’s ability to raise capital through debt and potential seasonal offerings. Investment Risk Acquisition Risk (I-2) With five acquisitions since 2017, Alteryx has a history of growth through acquisitions. This growth strategy presents two primary risks: 1) employees from the acquired firm do not integrate into the established corporate culture and leave the company, and 2) the technology acquired does not integrate effectively with Alteryx’s platform in the long run. Regulatory Risk Failure to Secure Customer Information (R-1) Alteryx experienced two different security breaches in 2017 and 2018 that led to lawsuits brought by Alteryx’s customers. Alteryx uses a 3rd party cloud to store its customers’ data and continued security issues may cause Alteryx to look into transferring the data to another cloud provider. Security breaches can lead to any of two main impacts: 1) Alteryx’s brand reputation would be severely tainted by the release of sensitive customer information leading to loss of customers, and 2) Litigation on the part of Alteryx’s customers. The lawsuits from 2017 and 2018 have been dropped, but public perception is negatively affected by lawsuits regarding customer security.
  • 11. Azusa Pacific University l 10 Corporate Governance Executives and Board Governance Shareholder Structure Alteryx has a staff of 10 C-level executives with a mixture of experience and tenure(Appendix:F1). In December of 2019, Alteryx appointed Scott Davidson as the first COO. The executives are spread across different office locations with 7 located in Irvine, CA, 2 in Broomfield, CO, and 1 in Menlo Park, CA; this provides appropriate managerial oversight for staff in varying locations. The Board of Directors is made up of 8 tenured professionals, 5 of which are independent of any ties to the company (Appendix:F3). The board members serve three year terms, and the majority of the current board members began their terms prior to the company’s IPO. The Board’s corporate governance had a score of 3.48 on a scale of 1-4; with 1 being very poor and 4 representing full compliance with NYSE standards and CFA corporate governance guidelines (Appendix:F4). Alteryx, Inc., has two different stock classes, Class A common stock and Class B common stock. Class A common stock currently trades on the NYSE and is the only class available to the public. Class B common stock is held by pre-IPO equity holders and converts to Class A when traded; it is convertible on a one-to-one ratio to Class A stock. Class A has one vote per share and Class B has ten votes per share, thus representing significant inequality in shareholder rights. All remaining Class B shares will convert to Class A at the earliest of the following three dates: 1) the date at which 2/3 of the Class B shareholders vote to convert it, 2) ten years from the IPO (2027), or 3) the date at which Class B stock represents less than 10% of the aggregate number of total shares outstanding (Class A and Class B). Currently, insiders hold 0.54% of all outstanding shares, not including derivative options. As of October 24, 2019, there are 51,819,830 Class A shares and 13,256,299 Class B shares outstanding. As of February 2019, there were 51 registered holders of Class A shares and 36 registered holders of Class B shares. The public float of all outstanding shares, including Class B, is 79.25%. Alteryx issued convertible senior notes in 2018 with the intention to redeem them in cash; however, failure to do so (and failure to enact capped call contracts) is expected to dilute the stock by 8.15%. Financial Responsibility Alteryx reported material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting in 2016, but as of March 31st, 2018, it has remedied this issue. Although a Beneish Model analysis of Alteryx yielded an “M-Score” of -2.225, indicating the company is unlikely to be manipulating its earnings, the company has not released any specific information or reports regarding the incident or its remedy. At the end of fiscal 2018 concerns of a conflict of interest led Alteryx to switch auditors from PwC to Deloitte due to the promotion of Alteryx software by the business advisory wing of PwC. This led the audit committee to select Deloitte as the new independent auditor, a decision which was ratified by shareholders in the 2018 annual proxy voting (Appendix:F7). Source: Company Filings and Team Analysis Source: Company Filings and Team Analysis Source: Team Analysis Source: Team Analysis Sensitivity Analysis The terminal growth rate and the WACC are two primary inputs for our DCF valuation. We performed a sensitivity analysis for both of these rates to visualize how they influence the projected value of Alteryx stock. If the WACC decreased to 14.75% with the terminal growth rate increasing to 5.5%, Alteryx stock would still have a downside of 23%.
  • 12. Appendix A. Abbreviations and Sources 12 B. Business Description 13 B1. Product Description Chart 13 B2. Acquisition Chart 13 C. Industry Overview and Competitive Advantage 14 C1. International Office Map of Competitors 14 C2. Alteryx Office Locations and Platform Languages 15 C3. Inspire Conference Attendance 15 C4. Competitive Position Factors 15 C5. Product Position Factors 16 C6. Alteryx vs. Microsoft 16 C7. SWOT 17 C10. Porter's 5 Forces 18 D. Financial Analysis 18 D1. Z-Score 18 D2. Forecasted Income Statement 19 D3. Forecasted Balance Sheet 20 D4. Cash Allocation Data 21 D5. Sales Team 22 E. Valuation 22 E1. DCF Valuation 22 E2. Total Cost of Equity 23 E3. Forecasted Land and Expand and Retain Revenue 23 E4. Global 2000 Customers 24 E5. Customer Growth 24 E6. Cost of Revenue 25 F. Corporate Governance 25 F1. Executive Leader Descriptions 25 F2. Leadership Locations 26 F3. Board Member Description 27 F4. Corporate Governance Rating 29 F5. Shareholder Ownership 29 F6. CSR Initiatives Chart 30 F7. Beneish M-Score 30
  • 13. Azusa Pacific University l 12 A. Abbreviations andSources Abbreviation Full Term TTM Trailing Twelve Months DCF Discounted Cash Flow YOY Year Over Year CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate Land Revenue Revenue derived from contracts with new customers Expand Revenue Revenue derived from expanding contracts with existing customers Retained Revenue Revenue derived from previous year revenue in both land and expand PwC PricewaterhouseCoopers R&D Research and Development WACC Weighted Average Cost of Capital Citizen Data Scientist A person who creates models to leverage predictive analytics whose primary job function is outside the field of statistics and analytics Seat Single subscription to Alteryx Designer M Millions B Billions NPM Net Profit Margin Sources: 2019 Gartner Magic Quadrant. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www .tableau .com/reports/gartner?id=19148&utm _source= NLTUG&utm_medium=linkedin&utm_campaign=MQ2019BI. AlteryxReview.(n.d.).Retrievedfromhttps://reviews.financesonline. com/p/alteryx/. Analytics, Business Intelligence and Data Management. (n.d.). Retrieved from https:// www.sas.com/ . Arora, S.(2020,January 22). Role of Citizen Data Scientist in Today's Business. Retrieved from https://www .si mplilearn.com/citizen-data-scientists-article. Berthold, M. (2020, February 18). Open for Innovation . Retrieved from https://www.knime.com/. Best Data Science & Machine Learning Platform. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.rapidminer. com/. Brooks, S., Brooks, S. B., Brooks, S., Brooks, S., Murphy, I., Brooks, S., & Brett, C. (2016, March 22). How close can Alteryx and Microsoft get?-. Retrieved from https://www.enterprisetimes.co.uk/2016/03/22/close-can-alter yx-microsoft-get/. Bruijn, J. D. (2019, February 28). Gartner's Magic Quadrants 2019: A side-by-side comparison of Analytics and Business Intelligence plus Data Science and Machine Learning Platforms (English). Retrieved from https://infotopics.nl/blog/2019/02/28/gartners-magic-quadrants-2019/. Contact Us. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://rapidminer .com/us/ contact-us/ . Data Analytics for Modern Business Intelligence. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.qlik. com/ . Gartner, Inc. (n.d.). Alteryx Data Science and Machine Learning Platforms Reviews. Retrieved from https://www .gartner.com/reviews/market/data-scienee-machine-Iearning-platforms/vendor/alte ryx. Gartner, Inc. (n.d.). Alteryx Platform review in Data Science and Machine Learning Platforms Reviews. Retrieved from https://www.gartner.com/reviews/marketldata-scienee-machine-Iearni ng-platforms/vendor/alte ryx/ product/alteryx-platform/review/view/900964#sub-head. Gartner_lnc. (n.d.). Magic Quadrant for Data Science and Machine Learning Platforms. Retrieved from https://www .gartner.com/en/documents/3899464. Global Leader in Integration and Analytics Software. (n.d.). Retrieved from https:// www.tibco.com/ . Gross Domestic Product. (2020,January 30).Retrieved from https://fr ed.stlouisfed .org/series/GDP. Home. (2020,January 31). Retrieved from https:// www.bls.gov/. Locations: TIBCO Software . (n.d.). Retrieved from https:// www.tibco. com/ company/locations . MicroStrategy, Business Intelligence Solutions Review, & ZDNet. (2020, January 29). Business Analytics & Mobility Solutions. Retrieved from https://www.mic rostrategy .com/ . Microsoft Power Bl vs Alteryx 2020 Comparison: FinancesOnline. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://comparisons.finance sonline. com/mic rosoft -power-bi-vs-alteryx. Roadmap: Microsoft Power Bl. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://powerbi.microsoft.com/en-us/roadmap/. Self-Service Data Analytics Platform. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.alteryx.com/. Shea, K. (2018, September 04). Alteryx Inspires 3,000 Data Scientists to 'Alter.Everything'. Retrieved from https://www .eventmarketer.com/article/alteryx-inspire-data-scientists-alter-everything/. Shein, E. (2019, October 23). Channel partner account manager role is due for a refr esh. Retrieved from https:// searchitchannel.techtarge t.com/feature/Channel-partner-ac count-manager-role-is-due-for-a-re fr esh. Tableau : Business Intelligence and Analytics Software . (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www .tableau .com/ . Wikibon's 2018 BigData Analytics Trends and Forecast. (2018,June 26). Retrieved from https://wikib on.com/wikibo ns-2018-big-data-analytics-trends-forecast/. Your Path to Enterprise Al. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.dataiku.com/.
  • 14. Azusa Pacific University l 13 B. Business Description B1. Product Description Chart Alteryx Platform Designer+ Server+ Promote+ Connect Designer o Data profiling: assessing the quality of a dataset o Preparation and blending of data o Drag & Drop interface o Repeatable workflow for self-service data analytics o Alteryx Visualytics - visualizing data through the whole journey, not just at the end o Predictive analytics with no coding R-based 30 drag & drop tools No black box analytics No code/programming Direct R or Python can be integrated o Spatial analytics (analysis based on geography) Insights can be shared with third-party apps o Create custom reports and visualizations • Single seat licenses or broad enterprise-level agreements • $5,195/user per year • Location Insights Data : $11,700/user peryear • Business Insights Dataset:$33,800/user per year Server o Server-based product for 24/7 self-service dataanalytics o Web environment o Good for scalable businesses o Built-in scheduling o Automation capabilities for running analytic workflows o Move organizations analytic processes to a secure place that still runs workflows while not consuming desktop space o Everyone can access data on the server o Store, share, and publish analytic workflows o Corporate governance can control who sees data • Larger scale environments • Per-CPU basisorbroad enterprise-level agreements of Designer • $58,500/per year Connect o Eliminate redundancy of data analysis by cataloging the work and analysis done by peers o Business glossary: define standard business terms within the organization o Search content based on how others in your organization have rated its effectiveness o Gather information on how data is used and consumed • Extension of server • Licensed per server basis • $39,900/per year Promote o Deploy predictive models o Code-free: no code required o Code-friendly: integrate Rand Python based models o Capable of REST APIrequests o CRM (customer relationship management) applications o Web and mobile applications o Internal applications o Deploys Rand Python models through standard REST API o Monitor system resources for CPU, memory, and disk usage for server • Part of platform or per-CPU basis oras part of broad enterprise-level agreement Community o Community hub with updates o Open discussions o Video and blog resources • Included with owning any Alteryx software Gallery o Includes public workflows uploaded by users o Private studio for individual workflows • Included with owning any Alteryx software Source: Alteryx Website
  • 15. Azusa Pacific University l 14 B2. Acquisition Chart Alteryx has acquired five companies since going public in 2017. All five acquisitions have been integral in developing sales and marketing or research and development. Historically, Alteryx has not been limited to acquiring companies in the United States, with 40% of its acquisitions being international. Company Description Semanta s.r.o. Semanta, or Semanta s.r.o. is a Czech Republic based data governance firm. The acquisition of Semanta allowed Alteryx to develop its "connect" product offering. Semanta was acquired for $5.66M with the purchase consideration going towards acquired technology, goodwill, and assumed liabilities. Yhat, Inc. Yhat, Inc. is a Brooklyn based company that was founded in 2013 to help data scientists create, integrate, and deploy predictive models in other software and applications. The acquisition ofYhat, Inc. allows Alteryx to provide highly manageable workflows with minimal coding. Yhat, Inc. was acquired for $10.8M with the purchase consideration going towards acquired technology, goodwill, and assumed liabilities. Alteryx ANZ Pty Limited Alteryx ANZ Pty Limited, referred to as Alteryx ANZ was acquired in February of 2018. Alteryx ANZ was founded in Sydney in 2015 to act as an exclusive master distributor of Alteryx products across the regions of Australia and New Zealand. Upon the time of acquisition, Alteryx ANZ had over 100 current customers, those of which were inherited by Alteryx. This acquisition did not involve any technology but was more focused on market penetration. This acquisition cost $5.7M and the allocation of the total purchase price was $3.3M towards cash consideration, $1.2M to contingent consideration payable in cash, and $1.2M towards the settlement of preexisting relationships. ClearStory Data, Inc. ClearStory Data, Inc. was acquired on April 4, 2019 for $19.6M. ClearStory Data is currently located in Menlo Park, California. ClearStory Data focuses on intelligent automation of platforms on a large scale. Through this acquisition Alteryx gained insightful technology as well as an experienced team for its R&D department. In order to help retain employees of ClearStory Data, Alteryx entered into $6M worth of employee agreements-based achievements and milestones. Of the $19.6M purchase price, $10.7M was completed technology, $9.5 mm USO of Goodwill, and $0.6M of net liabilities assumed. Feature Labs, Inc. Feature Labs, Inc. was acquired by Alteryx on October 3, 2019 for $25.SM. Feature Labs is a machine learning startup that was launched from MIT in 2018. Feature Labs is in the business of automated feature engineering, which uses domain knowledge to make machine algorithms work through raw data. Aside from the $25.SM purchase price of all outstanding equity, Alteryx entered into $12.SM worth of stock options with Feature Labs employees. Source: Alteryx Press Releases
  • 16. Azusa Pacific University l 15 Office Locations Irvine, CA, USA London, United Kingdom Silicon Valley, CA, USA Paris, France Boston, MA, USA Prague, Czech Republic Broomfield, CO, USA Munich, Germany Dallas, TX, USA Kiev, Ukraine Chicago, IL, USA Copenhagen, Denmark New York, NY, USA Dubai, United Arab Emirates Toronto, Canada Singapore Sydney, Australia Tokyo, Japan Platform Languages English French Spanish Italian Dutch Porteguese Japanese Chinese C. Industry Overview and Competitive Advantage C1. International Office Map of Competitors Source: Craft Company Alteryx Tableau 18 Qlik 19 MicroStrategy 28 Sisense 6 27 Dataiku 2 C2. Alteryx Office Locations and Platform Languages Source: Alteryx Website and Community Forum C3. Inspire Conference Attendance Alteryx holds an annual user conference to bring the Alteryx community together for customers to network, enhance their skill sets, ask questions to a solutions team, and hear from keynote speakers. In 2020, Alteryx announced it will be holding its first Inspire Conference for the Asia Pacific region in Sydney, Australia. United States Europe 2016 1450 480 2017 1900 750 2018 3,000+ 1,538 2019 5,000+ 2,000+ Source: Alteryx Inspire Conference Sponsorship Prospectus and Event Marketer
  • 17. Azusa Pacific University l 16 C4. Competitive Position Factors Competitive Position was determined through a heuristic model to evaluate competitors relative to each other and through weighting certain factors greater than others. Our analysis determined that Alteryx is in the middle of the market. Brand recognition was measured by Google search history over the last three years. Google Trends history revealed a huge growth of brand awareness in comparison to competitors. Source: Team Analysis and Google Trends CS. Product Position Factors Product Position was determined through a heuristic model to evaluate competitors relative to each other and through weighting certain factors greater than others. Alteryx's product is positioned on the low end compared to its competitors. The product's strength comes primarily through its support and usability, but suffers comparatively from its functionality and scalability. Source: Team Analysis
  • 18. Azusa Pacific University l 17 C6. Alteryx vs. Microsoft Microsoft is currently a tech partner with Alteryx, allowing customers to integrate Micro soft PowerBI and the Alter yx Platform to make an overall end-to-end platform. Should Microsoft choose to develop its current software, PowerBI, to have a higher level of predictive analytics, it would move into Alte ryx's market space and become a direct competitor. Alteryx Microsoft Data Preparation, Visualization, and Analytics Designer PowerBI Pro $432.91/seat/month ($5,195/seat/year) $9.99/user/month Automated Scalable Server Server PowerBI Premium $4,875/month ($58,500/year) $4,995/month Collaboration Available with Server Available with PowerBI Pro Additional Pro duct s • Connect - data cataloging , internal ratings, and • Embedded - allows independent software glossary developers to embed analytics into their own • Promote - predict ive model management for data applications scientists • Report Server - On-premise reporting for • Gallery - extern al collaboration across companies organizations • Az..u.r.e - Microsoft's cloud, artificial intelligence, machine learning, and data warehousing Competitive Advantage • More sophisticated predictive analytic ability • Lower cost without code • Available on mobile devices • Live phone customer service • Stronger global presence (44language settings) • Cloud Integrat ion isin-house • Excel is a Microsoft product • Open Source option on Azure Sales Strategy • Land softwa re in non-technical department of • Penetration PricingStrategy company • Expand into other departments through adding seats • Expand into IT department to sell Altery xPromote Target Customers • Medium andEnterprise Businesses • Small, Medium, and Enterprise Businesses • Excel Users Mutual Features • Free trial • Drag-and-drop function • Code andcode-friendly • Vast variety of data connectors • Cloud integration • Robust support: community groups, online training, examples, live contact Source: Alter yx Website , Microsoft Website , Team Analysis C7. SWOT We used a heuristic model to score SWOT factors out of 100; the score for strength is 80, weaknesses is 80, opportunities is 52.86, and threats is 60. Alteryx's strengths are matched by its weaknesses, but its threats outweigh its opportunities. Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats • Drag-and-d ro p Interface • Live customer support • 18 offices worldwide • Large growth since IPO • High consumer ratings • Go to market success • Land and expand success • Inspire Conference • Pricing model is on the high end of the market • Limited targetmarket • Inorganic growth • Most customers in early stage of Alteryx Platform • International expansion • IT market expansion • Product development • Expanding on overall offering with a cloud service • Visualization • Adding more languages • Cheaper competition • Technology advances from other companies • Tech giants that already have full offering with Al and cloud services Source: Team Analysis
  • 19. Azusa Pacific University l 18 C10. Porter's 5 Forces The Porter's five forces analysis shows that Alteryx's future profitability is threatened by the ability customers have to negotiate prices and agreements with Alteryx, as well as the crowded competitive field of data analytics. The Threat of New Entrants: MODERATE The technology sector has low barriers to entry because of low start -up costs. However, to succeed in the technology sector, start -ups need innovation. The existing players in the market have already established brand recognition, loyalty, and have the resources to be cost-competitive. New entrants that have new ideas are very likely to enter the market, but are also likely to be acquired by one of the existing companies for the contribution made to the data analytics field. The likelihood of new entrants is high, but the threat is dependent on having something new but partially negated by the probability of acquisition . The Threat of Substitutes: VERY LOW The primary substitute for a data analytics platform such as Alteryx or a competitor would be doing data analytics through Excel or in- house so ft ware. Companies working in data preparation and analytics work to move these companies from Excel or in-house methods to platforms such as Alteryx to increase efficiency within each company. Since the substitutes are generally considered part of the target market for companies in data analytics, the substitutes are not a threat for the industry as a whole. The Bargaining Power of Suppliers: LOW Alteryx has partnerships to allow for data integration. These allow collaboration between data analytics companies to import and export data. For a data analytics company to be truly successful, it needs to allow for collaboration across platforms or provide everything inside its platform. Choosing not to integrate makes it difficult for customers who find themselves in a transition period or wanting to implement various platforms. Most companies use mutually beneficial partnerships to bolster products. The bargaining power of these partners is low because of its commonality and mutually beneficial nature. The Bargaining Power of Buyers: HIGH Buyers of software platforms have the power of negotiation. The buyer can choose to integrate a competing platform which drives the cost down . In general, buyers are unable to create their own replacement to the software capabilities offered by data analytics companies, but they can choose not to switch away from their current method. Most companies realize that it will save money by having a data analytics platform and it chooses the one that will work best for them (negotiating/loweringthe price plays into that). Rivalry Among Existing Competitors: VERY HIGH The existing companies in data analytics include niche players that compete in small areas as well as larger companies that can offer more than Alteryx such as the tech giant, Microsoft. The larger companies have the advantage of brand recognition, international presence, full company integration, and visualization. Some of the niche players in the market get acquired by larger companies, making that competition even more steep . Pricing also fluctuates within the market, with Alteryx's price being on the high end. Source: Team Analysis D. Financial Analysis D1. Z-Score The Altman Z-Score estimates the financial viability of a company using data from its financial statement s. AZ-score below 1.8 indicates that a company is financially weak and will likely fail in the near future. A Z-score between 1.8 and 2.99 indicates that a company is healthy, but not as healthy as it could be. A Z-score above 2.99 indicates a company is healthy and financially viable. The Z-scores calculated indicate that Alteryx is healthy and financially viable. However, the company's Z-score does decrease overtime, indicating that the company's financial viability could deteriorate moving forward. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Working Capital / Total Assets 0.38 0.55 0.41 0.44 0.42 0.36 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.31 Retained Earnings/ Total Assets -0.36 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Earnings before Interest and Tax/ Total Assets -0.06 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.18 Market Value of Equity/ Total Liabilities 7.90 8.68 6.03 5.31 4.68 3.92 3.17 3.37 3.12 3.48 Sales/ Total Assets 0.45 0.41 0.28 0.26 0.33 0.38 0.40 0.48 0.54 0.60 Z-Score 4.95 6.40 4.43 4.02 3.83 3.44 2.99 3.29 3.30 3.65 Source: Company Filings
  • 20. Azusa Pacific University l 19 D2. Forecasted Income Statement USD $ (in millions) 2017 2018 2019 E 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F Revenue 131 .6 253.6 396.7 652.3 1060.7 1693.9 2654.1 3618.6 4221.4 4860.6 Cost of Revenue (21.8) (22.8) (37.4) (48.4) (66.2) (92.8) (128.9) (154.2) (178.2) (206.7) Gross Profit 109.8 230.8 359.3 603.9 994.5 1601.0 2525.2 3464.4 4043.2 4653.8 Operating Expenses R&D (29.3) (43.5) (68.3) (97.0) (155.1) (247.58) (387.8) (528.7) (616.8) (710,1) Sales and Marketing (51.9) (109.3) (181.0) (252.5) (382.3) (574.8) (848.5) (1048.4) (1214.5) (1408.8) General and Administrative (32.2) (48.3) (80.8) (128.9) (214.8) (352.7) (562.5) (723.1) (840.0) (974.4) Total Operating Expenses (113.5) (201.0) (330.0) (478.5) (752.2) (1175.0) (1798.7) (2300.2) (2671.2) (3093.3) EBIT (3.7) 29.8 29.3 125.4 242.3 426.0 726.5 1164.2 1371.9 1560.6 Other Income/Expense (0.2) 3.0 4.9 5.5 7.4 9.4 11.1 12.5 13.6 14.4 Irregular Income/Expense (42.0) (64.2) (86.7) (88.9) (90.1) (90.5) (90.5) (90.5) Net Finance Income/Expense (7.4) (16.7) (23.1) (23.2) (23.2) (19.6) (17.0) (18.5) (20.1) EBT (18.4) 25.4 (24.5) 43.6 139.8 323.4 627.9 1069.2 1276.5 1464.3 Provision for Income Tax 0.9 2.6 0.2 (2.0) (18.8) (54.9) (109.8) (187.6) (224.0) (257.0) Net Income (17.5) 28.0 (24.4) 41.6 121.0 268.5 518.1 881.6 1052.5 1207.3 Preferred/Other Stock Distribution (2.0) Net Income Available to Common Stockholders (19.5) 28.0 (24.4) 41.6 121.0 268.5 518.1 881.6 1052.5 1207.3 Sourc e: Company Filings and Team Analysis
  • 21. Azusa Pacific University l 20 D3. Forecasted Balance Sheet USD $ {in millions) 2017 2018 2019 E 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F Current Assets Cash.Cash Equivalents 119 .7 90.0 642.5 409.1 517 .7 626.3 734.8 843.4 952.0 1060 .6 Accounts Receivable 49 .8 94.9 58.3 77.9 97.5 117 .1 136.7 156.3 175.9 195.0 Other Current Assets 72.8 276.9 35.6 504.6 663.7 904..6 124 0.7 1481 .3 1640 .8 1799 .8 PPE 7.5 11.7 56.2 60.3 64.3 68.3 72.3 76.3 80.3 44.4 Other Assets 41 .6 144 .6 470.9 513.7 648.9 963.5 1525.5 1756.8 1986.3 1975.8 Total Assets 291.4 618.2 1272.8 1546 .0 19 72.5 2660.1 3690.4 4294.6 4815.7 5056.5 Current Liabilities 13 0.8 124 .6 220.1 298.6 438.1 659.4 975.8 1196.9 1336.7 1480.0 Convertible Senior Notes 173 .6 623.7 623.7 623.7 623.7 623.7 623.7 311.9 311.9 Other Liabilities 7.1 18.1 8.7 46.4 37.0 28.8 23.2 18 .1 Total Liabilities 137 .9 316.3 852.6 968.7 1098.8 1311 .8 1311.8 1622.7 1526.9 1648.6 Additional Paid in Capital 257.4 315.3 493.2 591.6 886.7 1360.3 2078.6 2777.8 3176.1 3580 .0 Accumulated Deficit (103.6) (12.9) (16.5) (14 .2) (13.0) (12.0) (11.0 (10.0) (9.0) (8.0) Reserves/ Comprehensive Income (loss) (0.4) (0.5) (0.1) (0.1) Other Equity 0.1 (0.1) Total Equity 153.5 301.8 476.6 577.3 873.7 1348.3 2067.6 2767.8 3167.1 3576.5 Source: Company Filings and Team Analysis
  • 22. Azusa Pacific University l 21 D4. Cash Allocation Data USD $ (in millions) 2016 2017 2018 2019 E 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F R&D 17.5 29.3 43.5 68.3 97.0 143.7 211.2 297.4 375.5 435.8 503.1 % of Revenue 20.4% 22.3% 17.1% 17.2% 15.0% 14.4% 14.4% 14.4% 14.4% 14.4% 14.4% o/oofOpEx 21.1% 25.8% 21.6% 20.7% 20.3% 20.0% 20.5% 20.9% 21.7% 21.7% 21.6% Sales and Marketing 47.8 51.9 109.3 181.0 251.8 367.2 508.7 676.9 802.1 929.0 1,077.6 % of Revenue 55.8% 39.5% 43.1% 45.6% 39.0% 36.8% 34.7% 32.8% 30.8% 30.7% 30.9% o/oofOpEx 57.6% 45.7% 54.4% 54.8% 52.7% 51.2% 49.3% 47.6% 46.4% 46.3% 46.4% General and Administrative 17.7 32.2 48.3 80.7 128.6 206.3 312.1 448.5 552.3 641.4 $744.0 % of Revenue 20.7% 24.5% 19.0% 20.4% 19.9% 20.6% 21.3% 21.7% 21.2% 21.2% 21.3% o/oofOpEx 21.3% 28.4% 24.0% 24.5% 26.9% 28.8% 30.2% 31.5% 31.9% 32.0% 32.0% Source: Company Filings and Team Analysis D5. Sales Team The inside sales teams are focused on finding new customers and creating contracts with them. The direct sales team also expands contracts with current customers through adding more seats of the software to different departments or upgrading to Server, Connect, and Promote. Value-added resellers are partners that assist the customer with implementation, training, and support with the platform. Partners have access to resources and are able to improve technical knowledge and sales of the Alteryx Platfo rm. Alteryx has a tiered program structure with benefits that increase with greater sales success. When pursuing a new geographic market, the company deploys resellers to provide professional services and end-user training to new customers, a direct sales team member, and a pre-salesperson to provide a full sales experience to new customers. The company is focusing on a smaller number of strategic VAR partnerships for a more efficient go-to-market strategy . Source: Company Filings and Earnings Calls
  • 23. Azusa Pacific University l 22 E. Valuation E1. DCFValuation USD $ (in millions) 2019 E 2020 F 2021 F 2022 F 2023 F 2024 F 2025 F 2026 F Terminal Revenue 396.65 652.25 1,060.68 1,693.85 2,654.12 3,618.62 4,221.37 4,860.55 Cost of Revenue (37.38) (48.39) 66.22 (92.83) (128.91) (154.20) 178.23 (206.71) Gross Profit 359.27 603.87 994.46 1,601.02 2,525.21 3,464.42 4,043.15 4,653.84 Total Operating Expenses (330.02) (478.46) (752.20) 1,174.98 (1,798.71) (2,300.25) (2,671.24) (3,093.28) Operating Income 29.25 125.40 242.26 426.04 726.50 1,164.17 1,371.91 1,560.56 Interest Expense (16.66) (23.08) (23.20) (23.17) (19.60) (17.01) (18.47) (20.12) Pre-ta x Income 12.59 102.33 219.06 402.87 706.90 1,147.17 1,353.44 1,540.44 Tax (at .207 tax rate) 2.61 21.18 45.34 83.39 146.33 237.46 280.16 318.87 Adjusted Earnings 9.98 81.15 173.71 319.47 560.57 909.70 1,073 .28 1,221 .57 1,283 .87 Terminal Value 11,507.36 Discount Period 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 Discount Factor 1.00 0.86 0.74 0.64 0.55 0.47 0.41 0.35 Discounted Cash Flow 9.98 69.80 128.53 203.32 306.87 428.36 434.71 4,434.66 Enterprise Value Cash and Cash Equivalents on Hand Equity Value Shares Outstanding (Class A and B) Equity Value Per Share Minority Discount Final Equity Value Per Share 6,016.22 642.45 6,658.67 65.08 102.32 15% 86.97 Source: Team Analysis Terminal Growth Rate= 5.10% WACC= 16.26%
  • 24. Azusa Pacific University l 23 E2. Total Cost of Equity (3-factor Fama-French Model) In our Fama-French 3 factor model, robust regressions were used to adjust for outliers and the Durbin-Watson , Breusch-Pagan, Runs-test, and White test for autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity (all tests were negative). Coefficients were applied to factors from 2005-2020 to get the full business cycle (2017-2020 were skewed and the cost of equity would have been more than 30%). Though not used in our calculations the Fama-trench 5 factor returned similar valuations. Years of Alteryx Data Robust Regression Factor(s) b0 p b1 p b2 p R2 RFR Total Cost of Equity WACC Price Price w/ Minority Discount 3 Mkt - RFR 1.77 0.0001> 0.191 1.56% 17.54% 17.14% $ 93.71 $ 79.65 2 Mkt - RFR 1.81 0.0001> 0.244 1.94% 17.91% 17.50% $ 90.58 $ 77.00 1 Mkt - RFR 1.46 0.0001> 0.144 2.12% 14.69% 14.36% $ 126.58 $ 107.59 0.5 (6m ) Mkt - RFR 1 .21 0 .000 1> 0.087 1.80% 12.39% 12.12% $ 172.99 $ 147.04 3 SMB 1.04 0.0001> 0.021 1.56% 1.35% 1.36% 2 SMB 1.02 0.002 - 0.021 1.94% 1.35% 1.36% 1 SMB 0.57 0.247 - 0.007 2.12% 1.31% 1.32% 0.5 (6m) SMB -0.27 0.638 - 0.002 1.80% 1.24% 1.24% 3 HML -2.66 0.0001> 0.186 1.56% 3.78% 3.73% 2 HML -3.05 0.0001> 0.252 1.94% 4.15% 4.09% 1 HML -2.76 0.0001> 0.262 2.12% 3.88% 3.82% 0.5 (6m ) HML -3.01 0.0001> 0.323 1.80% 4.12% 4.05 % 3 Mkt - RFR, SMB 1.73 0.0001> 0.63 0.022 - 0.199 1.56% 17.23% 16.84% $ 96.51 $ 82.03 2 Mkt - RFR, SMB 1.78 0.0001> 0.71 0.022 - 0.254 1.94% 17.69% 17.29% $ 92.37 $ 78.51 Mkt - RFR, SMB 1.48 0.0001> -0.14 0.745 - 0.145 2.12% 14.86% 14.53% $ 124.03 $ 105.42 0.5 (6m ) Mkt - RFR, SMB 1.27 0.0001> -0.59 0.311 0.094 1.80% 12.89% 12.61% $ 160.41 $ 136.35 3 Mkt - RFR , SMB , 1.44 0.0001> 0.55 0.017 -2.19 0.0001> 0.32 1.56% 16.63% 16.26% $ 102.32 $ 86.97 HML 2 Mkt - RFR, SMB, 1.43 0.0001> 0.48 0.043 -2.43 0.0001> 0.40 1.94% 16.76% 16.38% $ 124.79 $ 106.78 HML Mkt - RFR, SMB, 1.21 0.0001> 0.36 0.265 -2.62 0.0001> 0.373 2.12% 12.89% 12.61% $ 152.97 $ 130.02 HML 0.5 (6m ) Mkt - RFR , SMB , HML 1.3 0.0001 > 0.54 0.142 -3.22 0.0001> 0.436 1.80% 16.32% 15.95% $ 130.61 $ 111.01 Final Model Mkt - RFR, SMB, HML 1.44 0.0001 > 0.55 0.017 -2.19 0.0001 > 0.32 1.56% 16 .63% 16 .26% $ 102 .32 $ 86 .97 Source: Dartmouth K. French Faculty E3. Forecasted Land and Expand and Retain Revenue USD $ (in millions) 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F Land Revenue 18.3 24.1 55.7 69.9 111.0 158.6 222.0 303.0 364.4 389.9 413.5 Expand Revenue 18.8 25.7 42.1 74.1 124.8 209.0 347.7 569.3 797.2 939.1 1090.0 Retained Revenue 48.7 81.8 155.7 253.8 425.1 698.8 1128.3 1790.6 2794.6 4292.0 6490.1 Source: Team Analysis
  • 25. Azusa Pacific University l 24 E4. Global 2000 Customers New Customer Changes Over Global 2000 Customers Change Ratio shows the ratio of new customers added by Alteryx to new customers added by Alteryx that are within the Global 2000. Global 2000 Customer Forecast shows the historical and forecasting number of customers that are within the Global 2000. Source: Company Filings and Team Analysis ES. Customer Growth The customer growth chart shows the historical and forecasted model for the customer growth (black) using a sigmoidal function anchored to 4.5 *1936 potential Global 2000 cust omers, because we estimate Alteryx could capture up to 1936 of the Global 2000 and these customers currently represent 1 out of 4.5 of the company's customers, which limits the sigmoidal to roughly 12000 customers during this period. However, it is fitted to the historical customer count (blue) with a linear fit to customer additions of the short term model without the constraint (gray). The customer growth rate chart shows the historical and forecasted model for this rate using a modified sigmoidal fun cti on, absolute error, weighted constraints for the cost function, and gradient descent for the learning function with maximum iterations of 20000. Source: Company Filings and Team Analysis
  • 26. Azusa Pacific University l 25 F. Corporate Governance F1. Executive Leader Descriptions Executive Title Alteryx Career History Description Dean Chief CEO from 1997 Dean Stoecker is the current CEO, Chairman, and Co-founder of Alteryx . Dean has Stoecker, 62 Executive helped grow Alteryx from a spatial business intelligence company to a data analytics Officer, Co-founder from 1997 company. Dean received his undergraduate degree in International Business from Chairman, the University of Colorado, Boulder, and his MBA from Pepperdine Graziadio School Co-founder Tenure with Alteryx: 23years of Business. Scott Jones, President & CRO from January, 2017 56 Chief Revenue Officer President from August, 2018 Tenure with Alteryx: 2 years Scott Jones joined Alteryx in the beginning of 2017 as the President and Chief Revenue Officer. Scott received a bachelor's California State University, Chino, and his MBA from Pepperdine Graziadio Business School. Scott worked at SAP and Business Objects as COO for the Database and Technology Division. Scott also spent 3 years as SVP of the Americas for the sales division of Tableau. At Alteryx, Scott is responsible for the global growth and sales of Alteryx. Olivia Adams, Chief CCO from 1997 Olivia Adams is one of the Co-founders of Alteryx and the current Chief Customer 57 Customer Officer. Olivia graduated with a marketing degree from Castleton University in 1984. Officer, Co-founder from 1997 Before Co-founding Alteryx, Olivia served as an account executive and manager for Co-founder, IMS, Donnelley Marketing Information Services, and Strategic Mapping. Olivia is the Executive Vice EVP, Marketing from 1997 CCO and is responsible for growing the Alteryx community and launching the annual President of Inspire conference. Marketing Tenure with Alteryx: 23years Kevin Rubin, Chief CFO from April, 2016 45 Financial Officer Tenure with Alteryx: 3 years Kevin Rubin joined Alteryx in 2016 as the CFO after a seasoned career as a CFO at other data management and software companies. Kevin graduated with a degree in economics from UC Santa Barbara and is an inactive CPA holder. Before joining Alteryx, Kevin was the CFO at Data Direct Networks, Pictage, and MSC Software. At Alteryx, Kevin is responsible for financial management. Derek Chief CTO from August, 2018 Knudsen, 46 Technology Officer Tenure with Alteryx: 1 year Derek Knudsen joined the Alteryx team in August of 2018 as the CTO, responsible for using technology to drive strategic growth and scale all technology initiatives. Prior to joining Alteryx, Derek was a partner at Credera, the VP of Technology at Irvine Company, and held multiple strategic and technology roles at Avanade . Derek got his undergraduate degree in Electrical engineering from the University of Arizona and his MBA from USC Marshall School of Business. Sharmila Chief Strategy CSO from April, 2019 Mulligan, 53 Officer Tenure with Alteryx: <1 year Sharm iila Mulligan came on board in 2019 as the CSO from Feature Labs, where she was the CEO at the time of the acquisition . Sharmila is responsible for the operations in the Bay Area, the overall strategy of the company, and the essential technology partnerships. Sharmila has significant experience in market creation and strategy through her experience at multiple renowned firms. Chris Lal, 46 Chief Legal CLO from August, 2016 Officer Corporate Secretary from 2016 Tenure with Alteryx: 3.5 years Chris Lal has served as the Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary at Alteryx since 2016. Chris is responsible for legal affairs at Alteryx . Chris graduated from USC Gould School of Law and had 18 years of practicing law and being a general counsel for corporations. Prior to joining Alteryx, Chris served as the Vice President and General Counsel for Tillys. Alan Jacobson Chief Data CDAO from April, 2019 and Analytics Officer Tenure with Alteryx: <1 year Alan Jacobson has been at Alteryx since April, 2019 and serves as the Chief Data and Analytics Offer. Prior to starting at Alteryx, Alan was the director of global analytics at Ford. It is important to note that Ford is Alteryx's largest customer with over 6,000 seats. After receiving a masters degree in Mechanical Engineering from Virginia Tech, Alan joined Ford in data analytics and governance. Amy Chief CDAOfromJuly,2019 Heidersbach, Marketing 51 Officer Tenure with Alteryx: <1 year Amy Heidersbach is a recent addition to the (-suites at Alteryx having joined as the Chief Marketing Officer inJuly, 2019. Amy is responsible for the go to market strategy of Alteryx, and marketing initiatives. Amy is currently located in Broomfield, Colorado. Prior to joining Alteryx, Amy Heidersbach was the CMO at CareerBuilder and held high marketing positions at Capital One, Needle, and PayPal. Scott Chief COO from December, 2010 Davidson, 54 Operating Officer Tenure with Alteryx: >1 year Scott Davidson was appointed to the role of COO on December 1st, 2019. Prior to joining Alteryx, Scott has had experience serving as CFO's for a few different companies . Scott was the CFO of Docker Inc., CFO/COO for Hortonworks, and for Quest Software. Scott also holds an MBA in Finance from the University of Miami Source: Alteryx Press Releases, LinkedIn
  • 27. Azusa Pacific University l 26 F2. Board Member Description Board Member Title Alteryx Description History Dean Stoecker, 62 Chairman of the Board Member since Dean Stoecker is the current CEO, Chairman, and Co-founder of Alteryx. 1997 Dean was among three individuals that helped find SRC LLC, now known as Alteryx, in 1997. Dean has been the CEO of SRC LLC/Alteryx since the start of the company and has helped grow it from a spatial business intelligence company to a public data analytics company. Dean received his undergraduate degree in International Business from the University of Colorado, Boulder, and his MBA from Pepperdine Graziadio School of Business. Dean has received multiple distinguished awards in recent years and remains an active philanthropist, often leveraging his position to create CSR initiatives such as Alteryx for Good. John Bellizzi, 61 Member of the: Nominating and Corporate GovernanceCommittee Member since John Bellizzi was one of the early investors in Alteryx, and continues to March, 2011 support the company through his presence on the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee. John is the current global head of corporate development at Thomson Reuters Corporation, an integration information-based solutions company that he has been a part of for over 14 years. Jeff Haring, 55 Member Member since Jeff Haring is a board member of Alteryx who seeks to help advise on September, global growth strategies. Jeff is the co-founder and current managing of 2014 Insight Venture Partners, a venture capital and private equity firm that led the $60 million USD Series B funding of Alteryx in 2014. Charles Cory, 63 Independent Director Member since Charles Cory is the current Independent Director of the board, the chair of August, 2016 the Compensation Committee, and a member of the audit committee . Charles has an extensive background in banking, working at Morgan Stanley for over 33 years and retiring as the Chairman of Global Technology Banking. Charles is also the Independent Director and board member at ezCater and Lumeris . Charles is also an angel investor in the greater Virginia area. Chair of the: Compensation Committee Member ofthe: Audit Committee Timothy Maudlin, 68 Chair of the: Audit Committee Member since Timothy Maudlin has been serving on the board of Alteryx since 2016 as December, the Chair of the Audit Committee. Timothy received his Masters in 2015 Management for Northwestern University and has extensive experience as a board member with companies from multiple industries. Timothy also has experience with tech companies as he is the current Independent Director at Web.com. Kimberly Alexy, 49 Chair of the: Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee Member since Kimberly Alexy, a seasoned finance professional, is the current Chair of the February, Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee as well as a member of 2017 the Audit Committ ee. Kimberly is a current principal of a private investment fund that she started back in 2005. Kimberly began her career as a sell-side analyst for Technology stocks on Wall Street. Since her tenure on Wall Street, Kimbery has served on many different public and private boards in varying capacities. Member ofthe: Audit Committee Eileen Schloss, 62 Member of the: Compensation Committee Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee Member since Eileen Schloss joined the Alteryx board after a seasoned career as an May, 2017 executive. Eileen spent her career as an executive for many different large companies on the HR side of the business. Aside from working at Apple and Charles Schwab, Eileen has experience working at many high growth companies to help drive strategic initiatives through the HR department. Mark Anderson, 55 Member of the: Compensation Committee Member since Mark Anderson, one of the newer additions to the board, serves as a October, 2018 member of the Compensation Committee. Mark has very applicable experience to Alteryx as he spent most of his career helping young companies grow and scale. Prior to joining Alteryx, Mark was the President of Palo Alto Networks. Source: Alteryx Press Releases, LinkedIn
  • 28. Azusa Pacific University l 27 F3. Corporate Governance Rating In order to analyze the quality of corporate governance Alteryx; the board, each individual committee, and their impact on shareholder rights are evaluated on a 1 to 4 scale. The basis for the following criteria is set forth in the CFAs, The Corporate Governance of Listed Companies: A Manual for Investors (3rd Edition), as well as the rules and requirements set forth by the NYSE. Legend: 1- The company failed to follow the set forth criteria 2- The company failed to follow the criteria more than it succeeded 3- The company succeeded to follow the criteria more than it failed 4- The company is fully compliant with the criteria Criteria I Description I Rating Alteryx Current State Board of Directors Independence A board should be composed of a majority of independent directors with the ability to act independent of C-level management. 4 Five out of the eight board members are independent (62.5% majority) . Non independent members include Dean Stoecker (Alteryx CEO), John Bellizzi (SVP at Thomson Reuters, an Alteryx partner company), and Jeff Haring (MD at Insight Venture, which led Alteryx Series B funding). Independence A board's non-management members must meet regularly without management present 4 Executive sessions of independent directors occur in conjunction with the regularly scheduled board meetings. Experience A board should be comprised of members who have relevant experience related to the companies overarching goals and strategy 4 All members have extensive professional experience and board experience. Members are reasonably diverse across skill sets and have experience in data and technology. Resources A board and its committees should have the resources to act independent of internal management. 4 This holds true along with the board's right to hire and access any external consultant deemed necessary. Related-Party Transactions Absence of related-party transactions and/or methods to mitigate conflict of interest if such transactions do take place. 4 Three related party transactions took place in the last year that had a value of above $120,000 and all went through the Alteryx approval process which includes disclosure to the SEC and ratification by the Audit Committee. Elections Shareholders should have the right to elect board members on a year to year basis. 2 Shareholders are able to vote and elect board members on a year to year basis, but for staggered three year terms. Role Delegation The CEO and Chairman of the Board Role should be separate. 3 Dean Stoecker is both the CEO and Chairman of the Board for Alteryx, however, Charles Cory is the Independent Director to help mitigate the conflict. Committees Boards must have an Audit, Compensation, and Nomination committ ee. 4 All three of these committees are present at Alteryx. Average Score 3.63 Audit Committee Independence Must be fully composed of independent members. 4 All members meet the requirements of independence. Experience Members should have recent and relevant experience in accounting and/or finance. 4 All members have significant finance and/or accounting experience. Control The committee controls the audit budget. 4 In charge of the compensation for independent auditors and registered accounting firms Control The committee appoints the external auditor, and seeks ratification from the shareholders. 4 This is detailed in the written charter and in the SEC Form 14A shareholders have the right to ratification.
  • 29. Azusa Pacific University l 28 Size Must be composed of three or more members. 4 Currently composed of three members. Conflict Interest of Members should not be current board more than three public companies. members of Kimberly Alexy is currently a member of the audit committee at four publicly traded companies. Average Score 3.5 Compensation Committee Independence Must be fully composed of independent members. 4 All members meet the requirements of independence. Communication Regularly communicating with shareowners about compensation plans. 4 Compensation plans are communicated in the annual SEC Form 14A and approved by security holders. Transparency Disclosures detailing compensation are issued to shareholders. 4 All board member compensation is clearly set forth in the annual SEC Form 14A. Compensation Multiple compensation instruments are to be used, including equity and stocks. 4 Both cash and stock awards are used for compensation of board members. Average Score 4 Nominating/Corporate Governance Committee Independence Must be fully composed of independent members. 2 John Bellizzi, a member of this committee is not fully independent as he is the SVP at Thomson Reuters, a strategic partner company since March 29, 2019. Independence Nominating committee uses a third party to search and suggest new board member nominees. 3 In addition to third party resources, the committee considers the nomination of other members per referral of Alteryx employees, officers, and board members. Attendance Ensures attendance of all board members at regular meetings. 4 All Board members have attended at least 75% of all board and committee meetings since IPO. In 2018, the Board of Directors met seven times. Average Score 3 Protection of Shareholder Rights Ownership Structure Voting rights should be equal to a shareholders economic interest. Safeguards should be in place the case of a dual class stock. in Class B common stock has 10 to 1 voting rights compared to Class A. Safeguards are in place but do not properly mitigate the inequity. Voting Power A form of proxy voting is enabled. 4 Proxy voting is enabled via email, telephone, and internet. Nomination Power Shareholders have the ability to nominate a member to the board . 4 If a shareholder sees fit, they are able to nominate a substitute to fill a role on the board . Information Information should be disclosed regarding a company's corporate governance and board practices . 4 Accurate and detailed information regarding Alteryx corporate governance and board practices are available to the public and can be accessed through its website. Average Score 3.25 Overall Score 3.48 Source: Alteryx Press Releases, LinkedIn
  • 30. Azusa Pacific University l 29 Top 5 Mutual FundHolders Mutual Fund Shares Percentage Top 5 Institutional Holders Institution Shares Held Percentage The Vanguard Group, Inc. 4,164,451 8.04% Abdiel Capital Advisors LP 4,014,014 7.75% Brown Capital Mgmt LLC 3,677,439 7.10% Capital Research & Mgmt 2,652,231 5.12% Co. Whale Rock Capital Mgmt 2,129,622 4.11% LLC Shares Outstanding 51,819,830 100.00% Held American Funds Smal/Cap World Fund 2,834,100 5.47% Brown Capital Mgmt Small Company Fund 2,103,974 4.06% American Funds New Perspective Fund 1,800,000 3.47% American Funds Growth Fund 1,464,261 2.83% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index 1,314,396 2.54% Shares Outstanding 51,819,830 100.00% F4. Leadership Locations Alteryx, based out of Irvine, has a majority of its C-level leadership working from headquarters. The CTO and CMO are based out of Broomfield, CO. It is appropriate that Derek Knudsen, the CTO, works from Broomfield as the majority of the development work is performed there. Sharmila Mulligan, the CSO, joined the company through the acquisition of ClearStory Data, where she was the CEO at the time. Sharmila Mulligan is located in Menlo Park to oversee the operations of ClearStory Data and to help establish a foothold for Alteryx in Silicon Valley. Source: Alteryx Press Releases, LinkedIn FS. Shareholder Ownership The following table depicts the top 5 institutional holders and top 5 mutual fund holders of Alteryx outstanding Class A common st ock . Source: CNN Money
  • 31. Azusa Pacific University l 30 F6. CSR Initiatives Chart Initiative Description "Alteryx for Good" Alteryx for Good is the company's main CSR initiative. Through this initiative Alteryx provides licenses for its product to students, educators, and educational institutions completely free of charge. Alteryx is already present in many educational institutions, and this initiative will help the company to further integrate into the workflows of the next generation of data scientists. Alteryx for Good Co-Lab The Alteryx for Good Co-Lab is a group of employees, users, and partners of the company that comes together to help non-profits leverage Alteryx for growth. The Alteryx for Good program feeds into the Co-Lab as students and educators who implement the software can become part of the Co-Lab to help their communities. Alteryx Associates - Doing Good Alteryx offers each individual associate 20 hours of paid time off per year to volunteer for an organization of their choice. In 2017, Alteryx associates gave more than 1,200 hours of community service through this program. F7. Beneish M-Score The Beneish Model is a series of calculations resulting in an "M-Score," a value that can be interpreted to give an indication of whether or not a company is likely to be an earnings manipulator. A score higher than -1.78 indicates that a company is likely to be an earnings manipulator. The "M-Score" calculated for Alteryx was -2.225, indicating that the company is not an earnings manipulator. M-Score Q3 2019/2018 Days' Sales Receivables Index 1.518299247 Current Year Receivables Previous Prior Receivables Sales 67704 44592 350610 Gross Margin Index 1.0302 Previous Gross Margin 0.90400445 Current Gross Margin 0.877505702 Asset Quality Index 1.982123908 Current Noncurrent Assets except PPE 194264 Previous Noncurrent Assets except PPE 98008 Total Assets 1239309 Sales Growth Index 1.922372577 Current Sales 350610 Previous Sales 182384 Depreciation Index 1.056593243 Previous Depreciation 4374 Current Depreciation 4077 PPE 15229 Sales, General, and Administrative Expenses Index 1.745683152 Current SGA 239499 Previous SGA 137195 Sales 350610 Accruals Index -0.196803219 Income Before Extraordinary Items 35200 Cash from Operations 279100 Total Assets 1239309 Leverage Index 2.26852806 Current Long-Term Debt 623720 Current Liabilities 190795 Total Assets 1239309 Previous Long- Term Debt 168255 Final M-Score -2.225086068 Source: Company Filings