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KCM Divided into
Three Sections
5,500,000

5,000,000

4,500,000

4,000,000

Existing Home Sales
"It seems like Americans'
love affair with real estate
has returned."

Greg McBride
Bankrate.com's senior financial analyst
Bankrate.com 8/2013
Top 5 Reasons Americans Buy a Home
A better place to raise their children
A place their family can feel safe
Ability to have more space
Freedom to renovate to their taste
Owning is a better investment
Fannie Mae
Owning is still…

35

% Cheaper
than renting

Homeownership remains cheaper than
renting in all of the 100 largest metro areas
Trulia 9/2013
RETURN ON INVESTMENT
January 2000 – September 2013

MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
RETURN ON INVESTMENT
The Last Twelve Months

MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
Breakdown of the American Family’s

Net Worth
$77,300
$47,500
$29,800
Total Wealth

Home Equity

Other Assets
Federal Reserve 2012
Breakdown of the American Family’s

Net Worth
Home Equity

38.6%

61.4%

Other Assets

Federal Reserve 2012
Homeowners Net Worth…

OVER 30X

greater
than renters

Federal Reserve 2012
An American Family’s

Net Worth
$174,500

$5,100
Homeowner

Renter
Federal Reserve 2012
The two best ways to invest money not
needed for more than 10 years

CASH

REAL ESTATE

Bankrate.com 8/2013
Home Prices over the Next 12 Months
Prices Going Up

Prices Falling

36%

Remain the Same/Not Sure

29%
6%

9%

55%

All Americans

65%

Upper Middle Class Households
Window of

OPPORTUNITY
ta·per
ˈtāpər/
Verb – to diminish
or reduce
Recent Rate Movement

30 Year Fixed
Rate

Freddie Mac 9/2013
“If the data confirms our
basic outlook, then we could
move later this year.”

Ben Bernanke
Chairman of the Fed
Mortgage Rate
Projections
Analyst

Projected Rate
4Q 2014

Fannie Mae

5.3%

National Assoc of Realtors

5.5%

Freddie Mac

5.2%

Mortgage Bankers Assoc

5.1%
9/2013
Buyer’s Purchasing Power
Mortgage

Interest Rate

Payment
(P&I)

Today

$250,000

4.22%

1,225.46

Next Year

$250,000

5.3%

1,388.26

Monthly Difference

$162.80
What About the Move-Up Seller?
“8.3 million homeowners are on the equity fence,
and should have at least 20% equity in the next
15 months… If 5% of these 8.3 million
homeowners list their homes for sale, that’s an
additional 415,000 homes that will be available for
sale in the coming months.”

Daren Blomquist
Vice President of RealtyTrac

HousingWire 8/2013
“In the meantime, higher home prices
are bringing out trade-up demand
from existing homeowners who are
experiencing rising home equity,
which supports a down payment on
their next bigger house.”

Yanling Mayer
Director of Research, FNC Inc.

HousingWire 8/2013
Months Inventory
of Homes for Sale
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory

NAR 9/2013
Year-over-Year Change in Prices

S&P Case Shiller 9/2013
“This rapid growth is not normal and
cannot and should not be expected to
last. We are already beginning to see
moderation in the monthly pace of
home value appreciation, which will be
good for the market overall and in the
long term.”

Stan Humphries
Zillow Chief Economist

Zillow 9/2013
30 Year Fixed Rate
Mortgage History
January 2012 – October 2013

Federal Reserve 9/2013
115

Pending Home Sales

110

105

100

100 = Historically Healthy Level

95

90
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
NAR 9/2013
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale

5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory

NAR 9/2013
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%

12%
NAR 92013
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

S&P Case Shiller 9/2013
How will budgets
change in 2014?

marketingsherpa 9/2013
http://jenniferlistens.wordpress.com/
Top 5 Reasons Americans Buy a Home
A better place to raise their children
A place their family can feel safe
Ability to have more space
Freedom to renovate to their taste
Owning is a better investment
Fannie Mae
Owning is still…

35

% Cheaper
than renting

Homeownership remains cheaper than
renting in all of the 100 largest metro areas
Trulia 9/2013
Breakdown of the American Family’s

Net Worth

Federal Reserve 2012
Breakdown of the American Family’s

Net Worth
Home Equity

38.6%

61.4%

Other Assets

Federal Reserve 2012
Homeowners Net Worth…

OVER 30X

greater
than renters

Federal Reserve 2012
An American Family’s

Net Worth

Federal Reserve 2012
Resources
Slide

Slide Title

Link

6

Greg McBride
BankRate.com

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=61502&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1856909&highlight=

7

Top 5 Reasons Americans Buy a Home

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/pdf/scf12.pdf

8

Owning is still…

http://trends.truliablog.com/2013/09/rent-vs-buy-summer-2013/

9, 10

Return on Investment

http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller

11, 12,
13, 14

Breakdown of the American Family’s Net
Worth

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/pdf/scf12.pdf

15, 16

The 2 Best Ways to Invest, Home Prices
Over the Next 12 Months

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=61502&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1856909&highlight=

19

Recent Rate Movement

http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

21

Mortgage Rate Projections

http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/84813_.pdf
http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Jun_2013_public_outlook.pdf
http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-6-27-hgbfjnv/july-2013-outlook-2
http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_061313.pdf

24

Daren Blomquist Quote

http://www.housingwire.com/articles/26818-move-up-buying-activity-rises-with-home-equity-gains

25

Yanling Mayer Quote

http://www.fncrpi.com/press_releases.aspx?pr=69

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Resources
Slide

Slide Title

Link

26

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale

http://www.realtor.org

28

Stan Humphries Quote

http://www.zillowblog.com/2013-09-22/u-s-home-values-continue-to-surge-in-august-pace-expected

30

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History

http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

31, 32,
33

Pending Home Sales, Months Inventory,
Distressed Properties

http://www.realtor.org

34

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/19529_cshomepric

36

How will budgets change in 2014?

http://www.marketingsherpa.com/article/chart/tactics-budget-2014-investment

37

Jennifer Listens Blog

http://jenniferlistens.wordpress.com

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
COLLEGE
EDUCATION

PRIVATE
BUSINESS
Naea 10-13

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Naea 10-13

  • 1.
  • 3.
  • 5. "It seems like Americans' love affair with real estate has returned." Greg McBride Bankrate.com's senior financial analyst Bankrate.com 8/2013
  • 6. Top 5 Reasons Americans Buy a Home A better place to raise their children A place their family can feel safe Ability to have more space Freedom to renovate to their taste Owning is a better investment Fannie Mae
  • 7. Owning is still… 35 % Cheaper than renting Homeownership remains cheaper than renting in all of the 100 largest metro areas Trulia 9/2013
  • 8. RETURN ON INVESTMENT January 2000 – September 2013 MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
  • 9. RETURN ON INVESTMENT The Last Twelve Months MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
  • 10. Breakdown of the American Family’s Net Worth $77,300 $47,500 $29,800 Total Wealth Home Equity Other Assets Federal Reserve 2012
  • 11. Breakdown of the American Family’s Net Worth Home Equity 38.6% 61.4% Other Assets Federal Reserve 2012
  • 12. Homeowners Net Worth… OVER 30X greater than renters Federal Reserve 2012
  • 13. An American Family’s Net Worth $174,500 $5,100 Homeowner Renter Federal Reserve 2012
  • 14. The two best ways to invest money not needed for more than 10 years CASH REAL ESTATE Bankrate.com 8/2013
  • 15. Home Prices over the Next 12 Months Prices Going Up Prices Falling 36% Remain the Same/Not Sure 29% 6% 9% 55% All Americans 65% Upper Middle Class Households
  • 17. ta·per ˈtāpər/ Verb – to diminish or reduce
  • 18. Recent Rate Movement 30 Year Fixed Rate Freddie Mac 9/2013
  • 19. “If the data confirms our basic outlook, then we could move later this year.” Ben Bernanke Chairman of the Fed
  • 20. Mortgage Rate Projections Analyst Projected Rate 4Q 2014 Fannie Mae 5.3% National Assoc of Realtors 5.5% Freddie Mac 5.2% Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.1% 9/2013
  • 21. Buyer’s Purchasing Power Mortgage Interest Rate Payment (P&I) Today $250,000 4.22% 1,225.46 Next Year $250,000 5.3% 1,388.26 Monthly Difference $162.80
  • 22. What About the Move-Up Seller?
  • 23. “8.3 million homeowners are on the equity fence, and should have at least 20% equity in the next 15 months… If 5% of these 8.3 million homeowners list their homes for sale, that’s an additional 415,000 homes that will be available for sale in the coming months.” Daren Blomquist Vice President of RealtyTrac HousingWire 8/2013
  • 24. “In the meantime, higher home prices are bringing out trade-up demand from existing homeowners who are experiencing rising home equity, which supports a down payment on their next bigger house.” Yanling Mayer Director of Research, FNC Inc. HousingWire 8/2013
  • 25. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory NAR 9/2013
  • 26. Year-over-Year Change in Prices S&P Case Shiller 9/2013
  • 27. “This rapid growth is not normal and cannot and should not be expected to last. We are already beginning to see moderation in the monthly pace of home value appreciation, which will be good for the market overall and in the long term.” Stan Humphries Zillow Chief Economist Zillow 9/2013
  • 28.
  • 29. 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History January 2012 – October 2013 Federal Reserve 9/2013
  • 30. 115 Pending Home Sales 110 105 100 100 = Historically Healthy Level 95 90 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug NAR 9/2013
  • 31. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory NAR 9/2013
  • 32. Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35% 12% NAR 92013
  • 33. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices S&P Case Shiller 9/2013
  • 34.
  • 35. How will budgets change in 2014? marketingsherpa 9/2013
  • 37. Top 5 Reasons Americans Buy a Home A better place to raise their children A place their family can feel safe Ability to have more space Freedom to renovate to their taste Owning is a better investment Fannie Mae
  • 38. Owning is still… 35 % Cheaper than renting Homeownership remains cheaper than renting in all of the 100 largest metro areas Trulia 9/2013
  • 39. Breakdown of the American Family’s Net Worth Federal Reserve 2012
  • 40. Breakdown of the American Family’s Net Worth Home Equity 38.6% 61.4% Other Assets Federal Reserve 2012
  • 41. Homeowners Net Worth… OVER 30X greater than renters Federal Reserve 2012
  • 42. An American Family’s Net Worth Federal Reserve 2012
  • 43. Resources Slide Slide Title Link 6 Greg McBride BankRate.com http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=61502&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1856909&highlight= 7 Top 5 Reasons Americans Buy a Home http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/pdf/scf12.pdf 8 Owning is still… http://trends.truliablog.com/2013/09/rent-vs-buy-summer-2013/ 9, 10 Return on Investment http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller 11, 12, 13, 14 Breakdown of the American Family’s Net Worth http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/pdf/scf12.pdf 15, 16 The 2 Best Ways to Invest, Home Prices Over the Next 12 Months http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=61502&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1856909&highlight= 19 Recent Rate Movement http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 21 Mortgage Rate Projections http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/84813_.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Jun_2013_public_outlook.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-6-27-hgbfjnv/july-2013-outlook-2 http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_061313.pdf 24 Daren Blomquist Quote http://www.housingwire.com/articles/26818-move-up-buying-activity-rises-with-home-equity-gains 25 Yanling Mayer Quote http://www.fncrpi.com/press_releases.aspx?pr=69 KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
  • 44. Resources Slide Slide Title Link 26 Months Inventory of Homes for Sale http://www.realtor.org 28 Stan Humphries Quote http://www.zillowblog.com/2013-09-22/u-s-home-values-continue-to-surge-in-august-pace-expected 30 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 31, 32, 33 Pending Home Sales, Months Inventory, Distressed Properties http://www.realtor.org 34 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/19529_cshomepric 36 How will budgets change in 2014? http://www.marketingsherpa.com/article/chart/tactics-budget-2014-investment 37 Jennifer Listens Blog http://jenniferlistens.wordpress.com KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
  • 45.

Editor's Notes

  1. http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=61502&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1856909&highlight=
  2. http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/pdf/scf12.pdf
  3. http://trends.truliablog.com/2013/09/rent-vs-buy-summer-2013/
  4. http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
  5. http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
  6. http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/pdf/scf12.pdf
  7. http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/pdf/scf12.pdf
  8. http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/pdf/scf12.pdf
  9. http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/pdf/scf12.pdf
  10. http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=61502&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1856909&highlight=
  11. http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=61502&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1856909&highlight=
  12. http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
  13. http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/84813_.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Jun_2013_public_outlook.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-6-27-hgbfjnv/july-2013-outlook-2013-6-27.pdf http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_061313.pdf
  14. http://www.housingwire.com/articles/26818-move-up-buying-activity-rises-with-home-equity-gains
  15. http://www.fncrpi.com/press_releases.aspx?pr=69
  16. http://www.realtor.org/
  17. http://www.zillowblog.com/2013-09-22/u-s-home-values-continue-to-surge-in-august-pace-expected-to-slow-as-summer-season-ends/
  18. http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
  19. http://www.realtor.org/
  20. http://www.realtor.org/
  21. http://www.realtor.org/
  22. https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/19529_cshomeprice-release-0730.pdf?force_download=true
  23. http://www.marketingsherpa.com/article/chart/tactics-budget-2014-investment
  24. http://jenniferlistens.wordpress.com/
  25. http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/pdf/scf12.pdf
  26. http://trends.truliablog.com/2013/09/rent-vs-buy-summer-2013/
  27. http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/pdf/scf12.pdf
  28. http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/pdf/scf12.pdf
  29. http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/pdf/scf12.pdf
  30. http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/pdf/scf12.pdf