This document discusses using Excel to simulate project risks and calculate project durations under uncertainty. It describes using Monte Carlo simulation to assign probabilistic durations to project activities, calculate early and late start/finish dates, and determine the project duration and float for multiple simulations. The results are analyzed to determine the best, most likely, and worst case project durations based on the simulations. Advanced data analysis techniques like two-way tables, conditional formatting, and data tables are demonstrated for calculating project profits and costs under different input assumptions.

1. PROJECT SIMULATION AND
ADVANCED DATA CALCULATION
IN EXCEL
Dr. Chachrist Srisuwanrat
สาขาวิชาการบริหารงานก่อสร้าง คณะวิศวกรรมศาสตร์และสถาปัตยกรรมศาสตร์
มหาวิทยาลัยเทคโนโลยีราชมงคลตะวันออก วิทยาเขตอุเทนถวาย

2. Topics
• Project Risk Analysis using Simulation
• Determine project duration under uncertainty
• Plot density and cumulative distribution of
project duration
• Advanced Data Calculation and Formatting
• Construct “Two-way Table”
• Apply “Conditional Formatting”
2

3. Project Risk Analysis using Simulation
3

4. Probabilistic Activity Duration
4

5. CPM Calculation Table
5

6. Use constant duration to verify formula
6

7. Forward Calculation (ESD, EFD)
• ESDj = MAX( EFDi )
• ESDj = ESDj + DURj
7

8. Backward Calculation (LSD, LFD)
• LFDj = MIN(LSDk)
• LSDj = LFDj - DURj
8

9. Float Calculation (TF)
• TF = LFD – EFD
• Is Critical = if(TF = 0, 1, 0)
9

10. Apply probabilistic duration
• Copy code in “Duration Description” to Duration column
• Note: your numbers will be different because of
randomization. Press F9 to view change.
10

11. So what is the project duration???
Best case? Most likely? Worst case?
11

12. Use “Home->Fill->Series” to create
project-duration collection table
12

13. Use “What-If Analysis->Data Table” to
collect data (project duration)
13

14. Use “countif” function to count project
durations that are less than or equal to
14

15. Plot Graph
15

16. Construct Is-Critical Table for Activities
to collect probability of being critical
Collection 2,000 data points
Using
Fill->Series
What-If Analysis->Data Table
16

17. Use “Data->What-If Analysis->Data Table”
to collect 2,000 Is-Critical data points
17

18. CountIf to determine %Critical
18

19. Project Duration Analysis
19

20. Do you?
• Believe A-B-E-G almost being critical half of the time?
• Know that A-D-G could be critical?
• Think all 3 paths could be critical at the same time?
• Worst duration could be TWICE of best duration?
20

21. BREAK
21

22. Advanced Data Calculation and Formatting
22

23. Advanced Data Calculation and Formatting
• Main calculation table
• Two-way Table
• Text function
• Conditional Formatting
23

24. Simple Example:
Land Cost Valuation and %Profit
• Land Size 3 rais with Cost 200,000 Baht/sq.w.
• FAR = 3
• NFA/GFA = 65%
• Construction Cost 17,000 Baht/sq.m.
• Mgmt & Mkt Cost 10% of (Land and Construction Cost)
• Sale Price 75,000 Baht/sq.m.
• What is the %Profit?
24

25. Calculation Table
25

26. Two-way Table Example:
Land Cost Valuation and %Profit
• Land Size 3 rais with Cost 180,000 to 220,000 Baht/sq.w.
• FAR = 3
• NFA/GFA = 65%
• Construction Cost 17,000 Baht/sq.m.
• Mgmt & Mkt Cost 10% of (Land and Construction Cost)
• Sale Price 60,000 to 90,000 Baht/sq.m.
• What is the %Profit for each combination
of Land Cost and Sale Price?
26

27. Construct Two-way Table
• Land Cost 180,000 to 220,000 Baht/sq.w.
• Sale Price 60,000 to 90,000 Baht/sq.m.
27

28. Data->What-if Analysis->Data Table
28

29. After click OK and Formatting cells
29

30. Add Desired %Profit and
Minimum Required %Profit
for Conditional Formatting Only
30

31. Home->Conditional Formatting->New
Rule (selecting J5)
31

32. Select J5->Format Painter
• Select J5
• Click Format Painter
• Crop cells in the table for formatting
32

33. Conditional Formatting
for Minimum Required %Profit
33

34. Select J5->Format Painter
34

35. Now you can also change and study
• NFA/GFA from 65% to 60%
• Construction Cost from 17,000 to 18,000 Baht/sq.m.
• Mgmt & Mkt Cost from 10% to 15%
35

36. Comparison
36

37. BREAK
Two-way Table
Conditional Formatting
37

38. Simulated Table Example:
Expected, Max, Min %Profit
• Land Cost 190,000 to 210,000 Baht/sq.w.
• NFA/GFA = 60-70%
• Construction Cost 17,000-21,000 Baht/sq.m.
• Mgmt & Mkt Cost 10-15% of (Land and Construction Cost)
• Sale Price 60,000 to 90,000 Baht/sq.m.
• What is the %Profit:
• Expected
• Max
• Min
38

39. 39

40. Data->What-If Analysis->Data Table
40

41. Data Table runs and collects 10,000 data
of %Profit
41

42. Let’s get Land Cost, NFA/GFA,
Construction Cost, Mgmt&Mkt Cost, and
Sale Price
42

43. Data->What-If Analysis->Data Table
43

44. ORIGINAL
Land Cost 190,000 to 210,000 Baht/sq.w.
NFA/GFA = 60-70%
Construction Cost 17,000 to 21,000 Baht/sq.m.
Mgmt & Mkt Cost 10 to 15% of (Land and Construction Cost)
Sale Price 60,000 to 90,000 Baht/sq.m.
DESIRED
Land Cost 190,000 to 200,000 Baht/sq.w.
NFA/GFA = 60-70%
Construction Cost 17,000 to 18,000 Baht/sq.m.
Mgmt & Mkt Cost 10-15% of (Land and Construction Cost)
Sale Price 70,000 to 85,000 Baht/sq.m.
44

45. Example: Very Difficult Problem
• A group of consultant agrees to manage and sell a land.
• This land has 18 rais.
• They will be spited to 4 to 6 plots.
• These 4-6 plots will be sold at
• Plot 1: 190,000 Baht/rais for 2 to 4 rais or not at all
• Plot 2: 200,000 Baht/rais for 2 to 3 rais or not at all
• Plot 3: 200,000 Baht/rais for 2 to 3
• Plot 4: 210,000 Baht/rais for 2 to 3
• Plot 5: 210,000 Baht/rais for 2 to 3
• Plot 6: 200,000 or 210,000 Baht/rais depending on remaining land
• In the end, all 18 rais must be sold.
(continue next page)
45

46. Continue
• Consulting Fee 2% of all sale
• Performance Fee 15% of land sold above 195,000 Baht/rais
• If using sale agents, consultant must pay them 1% of the
land price sold by agents
• Probabilities:
• Plot 1 has 50% chance to be sold at this price or not at all
• Plot 2 has 50% chance to be sold at this price or not at all
• If sold, size of land (2, 3, or 4 rais depending), which is sold, has equal
chance (uniform distribution)
• There is 50% chance using sale agents in each plot
46

47. Questions
• What is the expected, max, min of:
• Land price per sq.w.?
• Net owner revenue after all fees in Baht?
• Net consulting + performance fees Baht?
• Absolute commission calculated from consulting +
performance fees in percent?
• Sale agent commission in Baht?
47

48. Calculation Table with Random Formula
48

49. Simulated Table with 30,000 Replications
49

50. Summary
50

51. Density and Cumulative Function of
Consultant Revenue
51

52. Consultant Revenue upon
Number of rais (0-18 rais) sold by Sale Agents
52

53. WHAT IF???
The consultant have already sold
3 rais at 200,000 Baht/sq.w. via sale agents
Can he increase number of rais to be sold at
190,000 Baht/rai?
If Yes, how many?
53

54. THANK YOU
Dr. Chachrist Srisuwanrat
สาขาวิชาการบริหารงานก่อสร้าง คณะวิศวกรรมศาสตร์และสถาปัตยกรรมศาสตร์
มหาวิทยาลัยเทคโนโลยีราชมงคลตะวันออก วิทยาเขตอุเทนถวาย