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CFA Institute
Research Challenge
APPLE HOSPITALITY REIT (NYSE: APLE)
TEAM F
Executive Summary
Main Features:
● One of the largest hospitality REITs in the country
● Highly diversified portfolio with consistent reinvestment
● Recently went public after the merger of APLE 7 and APLE 8
to become the current APLE Hospitality REIT
Company
Overview
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Financial
Analysis
Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Competitive Advantage
Company
Overview
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Financial
Analysis
Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Concentrated
Brand Strategy
Broad Geographic
Diversification
High Quality
Operating
Partners
Superior Operating Margins
+
Increased Performance
+
Enhanced Market Share
Properties
Company
Overview
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Financial
Analysis
Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
●Full-Services
Upper UpScale- 6.5%,
●Selected-Service
Upscale 73.4%,
Upper Mid-Scale, 20.1%
●4 years effective age on average
●Most of the hotels at suburban area
●Seven years straight demand over
supply
The Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)
● No corporate tax on REIT status companies
● Required disbursement of 90% of taxable earnings to
shareholders by dividends
● Low liquidity associated with REIT assets
Company
Overview
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Financial
Analysis
Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Porter’s 5 Forces
Company
Overview
Financial
Analysis
Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Threat of New Entrants: MODERATE
Buyer Power: SIGNIFICANT
Supplier Power: LOW
Threat of Substitute: MODERATE
Intensity of Rivalry: MODERATE
0 No Threat
1 Insignificant Threat
2 Low Threat
3 Moderate Threat
4 Significant Threat
5 High Threat
Demand Drivers
Company
Overview
Financial
Analysis
Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Positive US Economic
Growth
Falling crude oil prices
Demand Drivers
Encouraging Demographics
Company
Overview
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Financial
Analysis
Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Revenue & Cost Analysis
Company
Overview
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Financial
Analysis
Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
● Seasonality effects to revenue
● Revenue generating hotels: 177
● Revenue generating rooms: 22,782
● 91% of Revenue from hotel rooms
E
Transaction Currency = US Dollar only
Profitability Analysis
Company
Overview
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Financial
Analysis
Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Source: CapIQ
● Encouraging Profitability Metrics
Debt Analysis
● Reliance on revolving credit facility (945 million) for liquidity
● (Current Terms:1 month LIBOR + 2.3%)
● Covenants pertaining to credit facility
● Interest rate swaps as a hedge
Company
Overview
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Financial
Analysis
Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Methods of Valuation
Company
Overview
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Financial
Analysis
Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
DCF
45%
Relative
Valuation
10%
NAV
45%
● DCF Valuation
●NAV Valuation
● Relative Valuation
● Average of P/FFO, P/AFFO, P/S
●Monte Carlo Simulation
DCF Assumptions - Revenue
Company
Overview
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Financial
Analysis
Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
DCF Assumptions - WACC
Company
Overview
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Financial
Analysis
Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Net Asset Value (NAV)
● Using forecasted financial statements
data
● Total Gross Real Estate Assets = Land
+ Buildings & Improvements +
Furniture, Fixtures & Equipment.
● Cap rates based on the location of
hotels, from Integra Realty
Resources(IRR)
● It is trading at a 4.6% premium
Company
Overview
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Financial
Analysis
Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Relative Valuation
● Comparables based on hotel portfolio
● FFO defined as NAREIT
● AFFO is FFO- Maintenance Capital
Expenditure
● APLE is trading at a premium
compared to competitors
Company
Overview
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Financial
Analysis
Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
VIX Index and S&P 500
Company
Overview
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Financial
Analysis
Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
● VIX Index indicated market
was very volatile in the
beginning of 2016
● From Dec 15 to Jan 15,
S&P 500 dropped 7.89%;
VIX increased by 28.97%
● Comparable Companies’
price was highly affected
by the market
Source: Yahoo
Finance
Monte Carlo Simulation
●Occupancy Rate
●ADR
●Room Growth
88.1%
Hold
BuySell
●Cap Rate
●EBITDA Growth Rate
Market Risk
Company
Overview
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Financial
Analysis
Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
● Rise in Interest
Rates
● Illiquidity of real
estate Market
Source: FRED
Economic and Regulatory Risks
● Poor macroeconomic
factors
● Decline in target markets
● Regulatory changes
Source: Federal Reserve
Company
Overview
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Financial
Analysis
Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Credit Risk
Company
Overview
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Financial
Analysis
Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
● Operational credit
health is below
average
● Low liquidity metrics
pose liquidity risk
● Poor current ratio and
quick ratio
Operational Risk Key:
1: Insignificant Threat to Shareholders
2: Low Threat to Shareholders
3: Moderate Threat to Shareholders
4: Significant Threat to Shareholders
5: High Threat to Shareholders
Company
Overview
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Financial
Analysis
Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
● Board of Directors - SIGNIFICANT
● Disclosure and Transparency -
INSIGNIFICANT
● Executive Management - INSIGNIFICANT
● Rights and Obligations of Shareholders -
LOW
● Takeover Defense - LOW
Conclusion
Company
Overview
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Financial
Analysis
Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Apple
Hospitality(NYSE:APLE)
HOLD
MERITS
● Healthy industry
outlook
● Increasing ADR,
which drives growth
in RevPaR
● 6.56% Dividend Yield
● Well-articulated
corporate strategy of
consistent
reinvestment
CONCERNS
● Low liquidity
● Interest Rate
uncertainty
● Real Estate illiquidity
● Concerns for market
performance
● Conflict of interest in
corporate governance
Current Price: $18.28 Target Price: $18.00 Downside: 1.53%
Recommendation
Appendices
Appendix A: Fed Fund Rate Projection
(Dec 2015)
Source: Federal Reserve
Appendix B: Pwc US Lodging Outlook
Appendix C: Pwc Chain Scale Outlook,
% change from Prior year
Appendix D: Hospitality Market Cycle
Appendix E: Implied Cap Rate and
Cap rate Sensitivity Table
Appendix F: Historical Equity Risk
Premium
Appendix G: Comparison of Financial
Structure
LTM Total
Debt/EBITDA
Debt/Equity
APLE 3.1x 35.80%
CLDT 5.9x 87.20%
HT 7.4x 166.30%
HPT 5.0x 116.90%
RLJ 4.5x 74.20%
INN 5.5x 98.10%
Appendix H: Profitability Margin

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CFA Institute Research Challenge

  • 1. CFA Institute Research Challenge APPLE HOSPITALITY REIT (NYSE: APLE) TEAM F
  • 2. Executive Summary Main Features: ● One of the largest hospitality REITs in the country ● Highly diversified portfolio with consistent reinvestment ● Recently went public after the merger of APLE 7 and APLE 8 to become the current APLE Hospitality REIT Company Overview Industry & Competitive Positioning Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
  • 3. Competitive Advantage Company Overview Industry & Competitive Positioning Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion Concentrated Brand Strategy Broad Geographic Diversification High Quality Operating Partners Superior Operating Margins + Increased Performance + Enhanced Market Share
  • 4. Properties Company Overview Industry & Competitive Positioning Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion ●Full-Services Upper UpScale- 6.5%, ●Selected-Service Upscale 73.4%, Upper Mid-Scale, 20.1% ●4 years effective age on average ●Most of the hotels at suburban area ●Seven years straight demand over supply
  • 5. The Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) ● No corporate tax on REIT status companies ● Required disbursement of 90% of taxable earnings to shareholders by dividends ● Low liquidity associated with REIT assets Company Overview Industry & Competitive Positioning Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
  • 6. Porter’s 5 Forces Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion Industry & Competitive Positioning Threat of New Entrants: MODERATE Buyer Power: SIGNIFICANT Supplier Power: LOW Threat of Substitute: MODERATE Intensity of Rivalry: MODERATE 0 No Threat 1 Insignificant Threat 2 Low Threat 3 Moderate Threat 4 Significant Threat 5 High Threat
  • 7. Demand Drivers Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion Industry & Competitive Positioning Positive US Economic Growth Falling crude oil prices
  • 8. Demand Drivers Encouraging Demographics Company Overview Industry & Competitive Positioning Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
  • 9. Revenue & Cost Analysis Company Overview Industry & Competitive Positioning Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion ● Seasonality effects to revenue ● Revenue generating hotels: 177 ● Revenue generating rooms: 22,782 ● 91% of Revenue from hotel rooms E Transaction Currency = US Dollar only
  • 10. Profitability Analysis Company Overview Industry & Competitive Positioning Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion Source: CapIQ ● Encouraging Profitability Metrics
  • 11. Debt Analysis ● Reliance on revolving credit facility (945 million) for liquidity ● (Current Terms:1 month LIBOR + 2.3%) ● Covenants pertaining to credit facility ● Interest rate swaps as a hedge Company Overview Industry & Competitive Positioning Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
  • 12. Methods of Valuation Company Overview Industry & Competitive Positioning Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion DCF 45% Relative Valuation 10% NAV 45% ● DCF Valuation ●NAV Valuation ● Relative Valuation ● Average of P/FFO, P/AFFO, P/S ●Monte Carlo Simulation
  • 13. DCF Assumptions - Revenue Company Overview Industry & Competitive Positioning Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
  • 14. DCF Assumptions - WACC Company Overview Industry & Competitive Positioning Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
  • 15. Net Asset Value (NAV) ● Using forecasted financial statements data ● Total Gross Real Estate Assets = Land + Buildings & Improvements + Furniture, Fixtures & Equipment. ● Cap rates based on the location of hotels, from Integra Realty Resources(IRR) ● It is trading at a 4.6% premium Company Overview Industry & Competitive Positioning Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
  • 16. Relative Valuation ● Comparables based on hotel portfolio ● FFO defined as NAREIT ● AFFO is FFO- Maintenance Capital Expenditure ● APLE is trading at a premium compared to competitors Company Overview Industry & Competitive Positioning Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
  • 17. VIX Index and S&P 500 Company Overview Industry & Competitive Positioning Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion ● VIX Index indicated market was very volatile in the beginning of 2016 ● From Dec 15 to Jan 15, S&P 500 dropped 7.89%; VIX increased by 28.97% ● Comparable Companies’ price was highly affected by the market Source: Yahoo Finance
  • 18. Monte Carlo Simulation ●Occupancy Rate ●ADR ●Room Growth 88.1% Hold BuySell ●Cap Rate ●EBITDA Growth Rate
  • 19. Market Risk Company Overview Industry & Competitive Positioning Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion ● Rise in Interest Rates ● Illiquidity of real estate Market Source: FRED
  • 20. Economic and Regulatory Risks ● Poor macroeconomic factors ● Decline in target markets ● Regulatory changes Source: Federal Reserve Company Overview Industry & Competitive Positioning Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
  • 21. Credit Risk Company Overview Industry & Competitive Positioning Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion ● Operational credit health is below average ● Low liquidity metrics pose liquidity risk ● Poor current ratio and quick ratio
  • 22. Operational Risk Key: 1: Insignificant Threat to Shareholders 2: Low Threat to Shareholders 3: Moderate Threat to Shareholders 4: Significant Threat to Shareholders 5: High Threat to Shareholders Company Overview Industry & Competitive Positioning Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion ● Board of Directors - SIGNIFICANT ● Disclosure and Transparency - INSIGNIFICANT ● Executive Management - INSIGNIFICANT ● Rights and Obligations of Shareholders - LOW ● Takeover Defense - LOW
  • 23. Conclusion Company Overview Industry & Competitive Positioning Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion Apple Hospitality(NYSE:APLE) HOLD MERITS ● Healthy industry outlook ● Increasing ADR, which drives growth in RevPaR ● 6.56% Dividend Yield ● Well-articulated corporate strategy of consistent reinvestment CONCERNS ● Low liquidity ● Interest Rate uncertainty ● Real Estate illiquidity ● Concerns for market performance ● Conflict of interest in corporate governance Current Price: $18.28 Target Price: $18.00 Downside: 1.53% Recommendation
  • 25. Appendix A: Fed Fund Rate Projection (Dec 2015) Source: Federal Reserve
  • 26. Appendix B: Pwc US Lodging Outlook
  • 27. Appendix C: Pwc Chain Scale Outlook, % change from Prior year
  • 28. Appendix D: Hospitality Market Cycle
  • 29. Appendix E: Implied Cap Rate and Cap rate Sensitivity Table
  • 30. Appendix F: Historical Equity Risk Premium
  • 31. Appendix G: Comparison of Financial Structure LTM Total Debt/EBITDA Debt/Equity APLE 3.1x 35.80% CLDT 5.9x 87.20% HT 7.4x 166.30% HPT 5.0x 116.90% RLJ 4.5x 74.20% INN 5.5x 98.10%