Contenu connexe Similaire à Shift Happens: From Value Destruction to Value Creation (20) Plus de Cisco Service Provider (20) Shift Happens: From Value Destruction to Value Creation2. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential & NDA Required 2
History is No Predictor of the Future
Predictions that Flopped
1916
Charlie Chaplin, the actor, producer, director and studio founder,
stated:
“The cinema is little more than a fad. It’s canned drama.
What audiences really want to see is flesh and blood on the
stage.”
It has been proved that audience is more interested towards love
stories
3. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential & NDA Required 3
“[Television] won’t be able to hold on to any market it
captures after the first six months. People will soon get
tired of staring at a plywood box every night.”
— Darryl Zanuck, Movie Producer, 20th Century Fox, 1946
History is No Predictor of the Future
Predictions that Flopped
1946
1916
4. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential & NDA Required 4
History is No Predictor of the Future
Predictions that Flopped
1948
1946
1916
“Television won’t last. It’s a flash in the pan.”
— Mary Somerville, Pioneer of radio educational broadcasts, 1948
5. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential & NDA Required 5
History is No Predictor of the Future
Predictions that Flopped
1977
1948
1946
1916
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in
their home.”
— Ken Olson, President, Chairman and Founder of Digital
Equipment Corp. (DEC), maker of big business mainframe
computers, arguing against the PC in 1977.
6. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential & NDA Required 6
History is No Predictor of the Future
Predictions that Flopped
1995
1977
1948
1946
1916
In February 1995, just over 15 years ago, Astronomer Clifford
Stoll penned an essay for Newsweek under the incriminating
title:
"The Internet? Bah! Hype alert: Why cyberspace isn't,
and will never be, nirvana.”
7. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential & NDA Required 7
History is No Predictor of the Future
Predictions that Flopped
2005
1995
1977
1948
1946
1916
"Next Christmas the iPod will be dead, finished,
gone, kaput…"
— Sir Alan Sugar, British Entrepreneur, 2005
8. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 8
But Sometimes, Someone Gets it Right
The Prediction that was Right on the Money
1996
“In 10 years, our television set will be large and flat
and will hang on the wall much like a large painting.
It will be a digital, high definition model with clarity
approaching that of a movie screen. This TV will be
much more than just an entertainment device - it will
also be used as a computer monitor capable of
networking with other computers as an interactive,
videoconferencing device.”
— Stephen M. Millett, Battelle Technology Intelligence
9. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 9
Opportunity to Leverage Online Video for Differentiated UserOpportunity to Leverage Online Video for Differentiated User
Reshaping of the Video Ecosystem
Dominated by Online Video Growth
Online Video
Video = 90% of
consumer IP traffic
by 2012
Cisco VNI Study
Consumer viewing of
movies and TV shows
online doubles in 2009
Web
In 24 million
Households
By 2014
44%
5 billion
5B Videos Viewed Online
in UK in April 2009
Market
Dynamic
s
10. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 10
Opportunity to Create Revenue Generating Services Using theOpportunity to Create Revenue Generating Services Using the
Network as a PlatformNetwork as a Platform
Reshaping of the Video Ecosystem
Dominated by Online Video Growth
Online Video
Video = 90% of
consumer IP traffic
by 2012
Cisco VNI Study
Consumer viewing of
movies and TV shows
online doubles in 2009
Web
In 24 million
Households
By 2014
44%
5 billion
5B Videos Viewed Online
in UK in April 2009
Service Provider
11.3 million unique
visitors – Nov 2009
“TV Everywhere”
CDN
ISP
ISP
ISP
Online Film
Rentals?
Market
Dynamic
s
11. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 11
Reshaping of the Video Ecosystem
Dominated by Online Video Growth
Online Video
Video = 90% of
consumer IP traffic
by 2012
Cisco VNI Study
Consumer viewing of
movies and TV shows
online doubles in 2009
Web
In 24 million
Households
By 2014
44%
5 billion
5B Videos Viewed Online
in UK in April 2009
Broadcasters and Media
27%
Owner
44 million unique
visitors – Nov 2009
2X
Online
Video
Brand
Visibility
$$
Sony’s
On-Demand
Movie Service
2010
Opportunity to Increase Popularity of the Content and RevenueOpportunity to Increase Popularity of the Content and Revenue
Through CollaborationThrough Collaboration
Service Provider
11.3 million unique
visitors – Nov 2009
“TV Everywhere”
CDN
ISP
ISP
ISP
Online Film
Rentals?
Market
Dynamic
s
12. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 12
Innovate to Transform Consumer ExperienceInnovate to Transform Consumer Experience
Consumer Electronics
Walmart Buys
Vudu Movie Service
Reshaping of the Video Ecosystem
Dominated by Online Video Growth
Online Video
Video = 90% of
consumer IP traffic
by 2012
Cisco VNI Study
Consumer viewing of
movies and TV shows
online doubles in 2009
Web
In 24 million
Households
By 2014
44%
5 billion
5B Videos Viewed Online
in UK in April 2009
Broadcasters and Media
27%
Owner
44 million unique
visitors – Nov 2009
2X
Online
Video
Brand
Visibility
$$
Sony’s
On-Demand
Movie Service
2010
Service Provider
11.3 million unique
visitors – Nov 2009
“TV Everywhere”
CDN
ISP
ISP
ISP
Online Film
Rentals?
Market
Dynamic
s
13. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 13
Content Fragmentation
Broadcast, Premium, UGC
Device & Screen Fragmentation
TV, PC, Mobile, Gaming, PDA
Interactivity Fragmentation
Lean back, Lean forward, Social
Subscription Fragmentation
Broadband, TV, Mobile, Movie rentals, OTT
Free vs. Paid
Ad Dollars Fragmentation
Transition from linear TV to online
Fragmentation Takes Hold
Consumer Experience Business Models
14. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 14
Content Fragmentation
Broadcast, Premium, UGC
Device & Screen Fragmentation
TV, PC, Mobile, Gaming, PDA
Interactivity Fragmentation
Lean back, Lean forward, Social
Subscription Fragmentation
Broadband, TV, Mobile, Movie rentals, OTT
Free vs. Paid
Ad Dollars Fragmentation
Transition from linear TV to online
Fragmentation Takes Hold
Consumer Experience Business Models
15. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 15
Content Fragmentation
Broadcast, Premium, UGC
Device & Screen Fragmentation
TV, PC, Mobile, Gaming, PDA
Interactivity Fragmentation
Lean back, Lean forward, Social
Subscription Fragmentation
Broadband, TV, Mobile, Movie rentals, OTT
Free vs. Paid
Ad Dollars Fragmentation
Transition from linear TV to online
Fragmentation Takes Hold
Consumer Experience Business Models
16. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 16
2nd
Wave
1st
Wave
3rd
Wave
IP Video
On-net or Off-net
TV, PC, Mobile
Highest Service Velocity
Business Model: B2B2C
IPTV
On-net only
TV
Higher Service Velocity
Business Model: B2C
Traditional Cable
On-net only
TV
Limited Service Velocity
Business Model: B2C
More Open, More Flexible, More Monetization Opportunities
The Quest for Value Creation Propels a
3rd
Wave: IP Video
17. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 17
Next Generation Platform Built on
Web Services Protocols
Accelerates universal reach and 3rd
party
innovation
How do we get there?
Key Architectural Tenets for IP Video
Next Generation Platform
18. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 18
How do we get there?
Key Architectural Tenets for IP Video
Large-scale Unicast
Next Generation Platform
Content networks scale exponentially
for large-scale unicast services
Leveraging multicast technologies for
efficient distribution
19. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 19
How do we get there?
Key Architectural Tenets for IP Video
Large-scale Unicast
Video Intelligence
Next Generation Platform
Video intelligence propagates deep
into the network edge
Providing media, device, and network
awareness
20. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 20
How do we get there?
Key Architectural Tenets for IP Video
Large-scale Unicast
Video Intelligence
Common Client Architecture
Next Generation Platform
Common Client Architecture
Multi-device support – for PCs, set-tops,
gaming consoles, mobile devices, etc.
21. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 21
How do we get there?
Key Architectural Tenets for IP Video
Large-scale Unicast
Video Intelligence
Common Client Architecture
Managed / Unmanaged
Next Generation Platform
Services Across Managed and
Unmanaged Networks
Common experience no matter where
the user connects
22. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 22
Medianet
The Architectural Blueprint for Delivering Next Gen IP Video Services
Content Providers
Contribution
Core IP
Network
News
Gathering
Production
Sport
Events
Studio to
Studio
Ingest
Media Data
Center
Post Production
UCS
Real-time
Transcoding
Storage
Data
Center
Switch
Media Data Center
Tighter Linkages Between Core, Data Center and Edge
23. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 23
Medianet
The Architectural Blueprint for Delivering Next Gen IP Video Services
Content Providers Service Providers
Contribution
Core IP
Network
News
Gathering
Production
Sport
Events
Studio to
Studio
Headend
Primary Secondary
Distribution
Headend
Headend
Direct To Home
Telco
Cable
Mobile
IP
IP
IP
IP
Ingest
Media Data
Center
Post Production
Proximity Routing
Core +
E-MSE
Core +
E-MSE
Aggregation
Router
Aggregation
Router
Storage
Storage
Storage
Aggregation
Router
Aggregation
Router
Distribution
Router
Distribution
Router
Storage
Tighter Linkages Between Core, Data Center and Edge
24. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 24
Medianet
Consumption
The Architectural Blueprint for Delivering Next Gen IP Video Services
ConsumersContent Providers Service Providers
Contribution
Core IP
Network
News
Gathering
Production
Sport
Events
Studio to
Studio
Headend
Primary Secondary
Distribution
Headend
Headend
Direct To Home
Telco
Cable
Mobile
IP
IP
IP
IP
Ingest
Media Data
Center
Post Production
Tighter Linkages Between Core, Data Center and Edge
25. © 2010 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. 25
Shift Happens:
Will SPs Lead an Ecosystem Searching for Value Creation?
Notes de l'éditeur Revise second bullet sub heading: less about Cisco, more about the market
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Revise second bullet sub heading: less about Cisco, more about the market
Third
Revise second bullet sub heading: less about Cisco, more about the market
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Revise second bullet sub heading: less about Cisco, more about the market
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Revise second bullet sub heading: less about Cisco, more about the market
Third
Talking Points (Script):
Thank you for your time today. We would be happy to address any open items you may have at this time. Looking forward to continuing discussions.