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Evolution
{Business Activities}
Commoditisation




 Innovation   Bespoke   Products   Services
Hippolyte Pixii                   G. Westinghouse
           [Generator]                         [Utility Grid]
              1832                            (1846 -1914)




  Innovation       Bespoke    Products   Services




W. H.Wollaston
[Electric Motor]      Gramme Ring        Harvey Hubbell
     1821             [Commercial]        (1857-1927)
                         (1860s)
IBM 650
                [Commercial Product]
   Z3                 (1954)
 (1941)




Innovation   Bespoke    Products




                     LEO
                [Commercial Use]
                    (1946)
Utility Computing ...




  John McCarthy, 1960
es
                                                     er vic
                                                    S

Y                                             cts
                                         o du
                                     Pr

                              o ke
                       e sp
                      B

             at ion
      n ov
    In


                                     X
Common
                                              Services
Ubiquity




                                 Products




                            Bespoke
      Novel




               Innovation

               Low                                       High
                                  Certainty
Common
                                               Service providers like
                                                Salesforce, 2000+



                 CRM products, 1990’s
Ubiquity




                                    DB marketing, mid 80’s.

                Early lists,
      Novel




                1980.

               Low                                              High
                                   Certainty
Common                                                   Payroll
                                                    Accounts
                                  Expense            Payable
                                 Procedure


                                  Company
                                  Web site
Ubiquity




                                             Wiki
                     Social Network
                        Analysis
      Novel




               Low                                                       High
                                      Certainty
Common




                     Widespread
Ubiquity




                                           Feature
                                          Complete
      Novel




               Low                                   High
                                  Certainty
Ubiquity (how commonplace)                                  Cloud Infrastructure


                                            Commodity
                                            Hardware
                                                                              Utility Service



                                                                             Commodity
                                              Product
                                                           IBM 650, 1954




                             Innovation                 Custom built
                                  Z3,1941

                                                 Certainty (level of definition / standardisation)
Ubiquity (how commonplace)



                                                                           Economies of scale.
                                                                           (volume Operations)

                                                                           Pay per use.
                                                                           (utility)

                                   Prof. Van Valen                         Focus on core.
                               The need to constantly                      (outsource)
                             evolve in order to stand still
                              relative to an ecosystem.
                                                                           Speed
                                                                           (componentisation)




                                                        Certainty (level of definition / standardisation)
Ubiquity (how commonplace)

                             Creative Destruction
                             Joseph A. Schumpeter
                                 (1883 - 1950)

                                                                                     o n
                                                                                   ti
                                                              on                va
                                                           ti                 o
                                                      sa                  i nn
                                                 d iti               es
                                              o                    t
                                             m               e ra
                                    om                   c el
                                  C                 ac
                                             a nd                                     Componentisation
                                      l es                                          The rate of evolution of

                                n ab                                                a system is dependent
                                                                                     upon the organisation
                              E                                                        of its subsystems.




                                        Certainty (level of definition / standardisation)
Application                        Software

 • Standard classificiation of industry
   (Software, Platform, Infrastructure).
                                                           Database      Framework       Messaging         Platform

 • Componentisation effects are
   stronger the further up the stack                                  Operating System
   you move.

 • Lower layers will become less                                        Virtualisation                  Infrastructure

   visible over time (componentisation side-effect).
                                                             CPU          Memory               I/O



                                   Attitude



                                                                         • Old concept (Douglas Parkhill, 1966)
Concept
                                                                         • Suitable activities are those with
                                                                            little strategic value (Nick Carr, 2002)
                               Cloud                                     • Changing attitude towards IT (Paul
                                                                            Strassman, 1995)
                                                       Technology
                                                                         • Technology mature (x86 virtualisation)

                                 Suitability
Ubiquity (how commonplace)




                              Transition                             Outsourcing

                              Confusion                                Suitability

                             Governance                               Competition

                                Trust                                    Lock-in

                               Security                             Second source

                             Transparency                         Strategic Control



                                          Certainty (level of definition / standardisation)
Ubiquity (how commonplace)



                                                                           as a Service

                                                                                                     •   Designed for Failure
                                        as a Product
                                                                                                     •   Provide self service IT.
                                                                                                     • Abstracts   provisioning from the user.
                                                                                                     •   Provides for ephemeral architectures



                                                  Certainty (level of definition / standardisation)




                                                                                                                   variety of models


                                                                                                                       Services
                             •   Stand supply chain management
                             •   Public, private, hybrid



                                                                                                Consumer                             Provider
Cloud Infrastructure
Ubiquity (how commonplace)




                                                                                   Utility Service


                                                                      Economies of scale. (volume)

                                                                      Pay per use. (utility)

                                                                      Focus on core. (outsource)
                                Prof. Van Valen
                             The need to constantly                   Speed (componentisation)
                             evolve in order to stand
                                still relative to an
                                    ecosystem.




                                                        Certainty (level of definition / standardisation)




                                                                                                Ubiquity (how commonplace)




                                                        Vs
                                                                                                                              Transition                     Outsourcing

                                                                                                                              Confusion                        Suitability

                                                                                                                             Governance                       Competition

                                                                                                                                Trust                            Lock-in

                                                                                                                               Security                     Second source

                                                                                                                             Transparency                   Strategic Control




                                                                                                                                    Certainty (level of definition / standardisation)
General things to note
Activity Life Cycle                                           Commodity
                                                                                       (Core Services)
                                              Transition
           Ubiquity
                                                                                         n
                                normal pathway for                                 sa tio
                                                                                i
                               activity development                        o dit
                                                                       o mm
                                                                   C


                       Innovation                                                    Enable Innovation
                                                           Certainty
Stage                     Innovation                   Transition                            Commodity

Focus                    Innovate                     Leverage                              Commoditise
Scope                    Days / Weeks               Weeks / Months                               Years

Development                   Agile                        Agile                            Six Sigma / ITIL

Deployment                   Agile                  Six Sigma / ITIL                        Six Sigma / ITIL
Delivery               Local / in-house             Local / in-house                   Central / Outsourced

Commercial              High risk / low           Success critera (KPIs)            Low risk / reduction through
Focus                 cost / locally driven           for adoption                     volume / marketplace
Technology             Mashup / use of                 Standards &                    open standards / open
Strategy                core services                interoperablity                 source / second sourcing
Innovation




                                                               on
                                                                                                     • Speed & effectiveness of product
New activity, high




                                                             ti
                                                           sa
  risk, uncertain,




                                                         ti
                                                         n
 rapidly evolving
                                                                                                       evolution impacted by size of




                                                      ne
                                                    po
                                                  m
                                                                                                       ecosystem.




                                                co
                  Transition
                Activity becomes
                 widely adopted,
                more defined, &
                                                  Commodity
                                               Activity is ubiquitous,                               • Most effective organisation develop
                  more certain.                  well defined and
                                                   standardised                                        symbiotic relationship (Amazon, Facebook,
                                                                                                       Salesforce)
                                             Core Services
                          Leverage
                     The ecosystem can be
                      used to identify and
                                                               Ecosystem
                                                                                                     • Awareness & interaction are critical.
                      promote successful
                          innovation
                                                                         “Edge”



                                                                                               Company A                           Strong Ecosystem
                                                                                                                                  •    Faster rate of innovation
                                                                                                       Core                       •    Innovation pushed to edge, lower cost of
                                                                                                      Services                         failure and improved adoption information.
                                                                                    Company B                                     •    Ecosystem determines future needs.


                                                                                           Core
• Rapid growth depends upon                                                               Services
                                                                                                                Core
                                                                                                               Services
 developing stronger ecosystems
 than competitors.                                                                Company C
                                                                                                            Company D
                                                                                                Core                                                 Core
                                                                                               Services                                             Services


                                                                                                                          Company E
                                                                                                                                                   Ecosystem
                                                                                     Centralised
                                                                                      • Minimal ecosystem reduces rate of innovation
                                                                                      • No mechanism for managing cost of failure.
                                                                                      • Core determines future needs.
                                                                                                                                              Competitive Landscape
Infrastructure
Ubiquity (how commonplace)



                                                                                                      Go Grid API
                                       Confusion                                                        EC2 API
                                                                                                       OCCI API              IPX / SPX
                                                                                                    Sun Cloud API          Banyan Vines
                                                                                                    Rackspace API           AppleTalk
                                                                                                                      VS
                                                                                                   Delta Cloud API              SNA
                                                                                                     LibCloud API             Decnet
                                                                                                    Flexiscale API            TCP / IP
                                                                                                   ElasticHosts API
                                                                                                      vCloud API
                                               Certainty (level of definition / standardisation)



                                                                                                             variety of models
                             • Data security (including data portability)
                             • Data privacy & regulatory compliance                                             Services
                             • Geographical movement of data
                             • Governance
                             • Second-sourcing options
                             • SLA's and guarantees
                             • Trust in the infrastructure provider                               Consumer                 Provider
! (Peak Loads)
Machines




                               Peak !(Loads)                                  • Different supply chain strategies
                                                      Peak !(Loads) - Avg
                                                                              are possible i.e. hybrid
                                                             Load




                                                       ud
                                        on
                     l




                                                      lo
                  na




                                       i
                                    at




                                                  C
                  io




                                   is




                                                 d
                it




                                                 ri
                                 al
           ad




                                             yb
                               tu
           Tr




                                             H
                              ir
                             V




     • Match defacto standard (only linux distribution)
                                                                            Public cloud                       UEC Private cloud

     • Open Source Technology                                               Amazon EC2
                                                                                                            Eucalyptus      VM

     • 57% companies cite private cloud as                                                                    Web UI     KVM Hyp.

           essential for 2010 (ChannelWeb survey)                                                            Cloud         Node
                                                                                                            Controller   Controller

     • Eucalyptus top 10 technologies for                                                  EC2 / S3 / EBS
                                                                                                             Ubuntu Server Edition
           2010 (network world)
                                                                                                             Physical (bare bones)


                  ubuntu.com/cloud
• Not all IT activities are the same.
• Cloud describes the shift from a product to a
service economy of certain activities.
• Best mechanistic definitinion is NIST
• Consequence of a well known and inevitable
transition.
• Benefits and Risks are well known.
• Risks will change over time.
• Variety of models available - use depends upon
balancing benefits vs risks.
•Think supply chain & second sourcing ...

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Evolution of Business Activities

  • 2. Commoditisation Innovation Bespoke Products Services
  • 3. Hippolyte Pixii G. Westinghouse [Generator] [Utility Grid] 1832 (1846 -1914) Innovation Bespoke Products Services W. H.Wollaston [Electric Motor] Gramme Ring Harvey Hubbell 1821 [Commercial] (1857-1927) (1860s)
  • 4. IBM 650 [Commercial Product] Z3 (1954) (1941) Innovation Bespoke Products LEO [Commercial Use] (1946)
  • 5. Utility Computing ... John McCarthy, 1960
  • 6. es er vic S Y cts o du Pr o ke e sp B at ion n ov In X
  • 7. Common Services Ubiquity Products Bespoke Novel Innovation Low High Certainty
  • 8. Common Service providers like Salesforce, 2000+ CRM products, 1990’s Ubiquity DB marketing, mid 80’s. Early lists, Novel 1980. Low High Certainty
  • 9. Common Payroll Accounts Expense Payable Procedure Company Web site Ubiquity Wiki Social Network Analysis Novel Low High Certainty
  • 10. Common Widespread Ubiquity Feature Complete Novel Low High Certainty
  • 11. Ubiquity (how commonplace) Cloud Infrastructure Commodity Hardware Utility Service Commodity Product IBM 650, 1954 Innovation Custom built Z3,1941 Certainty (level of definition / standardisation)
  • 12. Ubiquity (how commonplace) Economies of scale. (volume Operations) Pay per use. (utility) Prof. Van Valen Focus on core. The need to constantly (outsource) evolve in order to stand still relative to an ecosystem. Speed (componentisation) Certainty (level of definition / standardisation)
  • 13. Ubiquity (how commonplace) Creative Destruction Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950) o n ti on va ti o sa i nn d iti es o t m e ra om c el C ac a nd Componentisation l es The rate of evolution of n ab a system is dependent upon the organisation E of its subsystems. Certainty (level of definition / standardisation)
  • 14. Application Software • Standard classificiation of industry (Software, Platform, Infrastructure). Database Framework Messaging Platform • Componentisation effects are stronger the further up the stack Operating System you move. • Lower layers will become less Virtualisation Infrastructure visible over time (componentisation side-effect). CPU Memory I/O Attitude • Old concept (Douglas Parkhill, 1966) Concept • Suitable activities are those with little strategic value (Nick Carr, 2002) Cloud • Changing attitude towards IT (Paul Strassman, 1995) Technology • Technology mature (x86 virtualisation) Suitability
  • 15. Ubiquity (how commonplace) Transition Outsourcing Confusion Suitability Governance Competition Trust Lock-in Security Second source Transparency Strategic Control Certainty (level of definition / standardisation)
  • 16. Ubiquity (how commonplace) as a Service • Designed for Failure as a Product • Provide self service IT. • Abstracts provisioning from the user. • Provides for ephemeral architectures Certainty (level of definition / standardisation) variety of models Services • Stand supply chain management • Public, private, hybrid Consumer Provider
  • 17. Cloud Infrastructure Ubiquity (how commonplace) Utility Service Economies of scale. (volume) Pay per use. (utility) Focus on core. (outsource) Prof. Van Valen The need to constantly Speed (componentisation) evolve in order to stand still relative to an ecosystem. Certainty (level of definition / standardisation) Ubiquity (how commonplace) Vs Transition Outsourcing Confusion Suitability Governance Competition Trust Lock-in Security Second source Transparency Strategic Control Certainty (level of definition / standardisation)
  • 19. Activity Life Cycle Commodity (Core Services) Transition Ubiquity n normal pathway for sa tio i activity development o dit o mm C Innovation Enable Innovation Certainty Stage Innovation Transition Commodity Focus Innovate Leverage Commoditise Scope Days / Weeks Weeks / Months Years Development Agile Agile Six Sigma / ITIL Deployment Agile Six Sigma / ITIL Six Sigma / ITIL Delivery Local / in-house Local / in-house Central / Outsourced Commercial High risk / low Success critera (KPIs) Low risk / reduction through Focus cost / locally driven for adoption volume / marketplace Technology Mashup / use of Standards & open standards / open Strategy core services interoperablity source / second sourcing
  • 20. Innovation on • Speed & effectiveness of product New activity, high ti sa risk, uncertain, ti n rapidly evolving evolution impacted by size of ne po m ecosystem. co Transition Activity becomes widely adopted, more defined, & Commodity Activity is ubiquitous, • Most effective organisation develop more certain. well defined and standardised symbiotic relationship (Amazon, Facebook, Salesforce) Core Services Leverage The ecosystem can be used to identify and Ecosystem • Awareness & interaction are critical. promote successful innovation “Edge” Company A Strong Ecosystem • Faster rate of innovation Core • Innovation pushed to edge, lower cost of Services failure and improved adoption information. Company B • Ecosystem determines future needs. Core • Rapid growth depends upon Services Core Services developing stronger ecosystems than competitors. Company C Company D Core Core Services Services Company E Ecosystem Centralised • Minimal ecosystem reduces rate of innovation • No mechanism for managing cost of failure. • Core determines future needs. Competitive Landscape
  • 22. Ubiquity (how commonplace) Go Grid API Confusion EC2 API OCCI API IPX / SPX Sun Cloud API Banyan Vines Rackspace API AppleTalk VS Delta Cloud API SNA LibCloud API Decnet Flexiscale API TCP / IP ElasticHosts API vCloud API Certainty (level of definition / standardisation) variety of models • Data security (including data portability) • Data privacy & regulatory compliance Services • Geographical movement of data • Governance • Second-sourcing options • SLA's and guarantees • Trust in the infrastructure provider Consumer Provider
  • 23. ! (Peak Loads) Machines Peak !(Loads) • Different supply chain strategies Peak !(Loads) - Avg are possible i.e. hybrid Load ud on l lo na i at C io is d it ri al ad yb tu Tr H ir V • Match defacto standard (only linux distribution) Public cloud UEC Private cloud • Open Source Technology Amazon EC2 Eucalyptus VM • 57% companies cite private cloud as Web UI KVM Hyp. essential for 2010 (ChannelWeb survey) Cloud Node Controller Controller • Eucalyptus top 10 technologies for EC2 / S3 / EBS Ubuntu Server Edition 2010 (network world) Physical (bare bones) ubuntu.com/cloud
  • 24. • Not all IT activities are the same. • Cloud describes the shift from a product to a service economy of certain activities. • Best mechanistic definitinion is NIST • Consequence of a well known and inevitable transition. • Benefits and Risks are well known. • Risks will change over time. • Variety of models available - use depends upon balancing benefits vs risks. •Think supply chain & second sourcing ...