A wide-ranging overview of the state of the digital currency economy and blockchain technology from CoinDesk's lead analyst and economic historian at the London School of Economics, Garrick Hileman. This was our curtain-raiser of our Consensus 2015 conference.
4. All-Time Venture Capital Investment in Bitcoin &
Blockchain Startups
$894m
Note: Q3 2015 projectedbased on run rate as of Sept. 7 2015
Data sources: CoinDesk, CrunchBase
5. 23 Countries with VC-backed startups
Sources: CoinDesk, CrunchBase.Images from Wikipedia
Switzerland
Sweden
Philippines
South Korea
Kenya
Singapore
Panama
Japan
Canada
The
Netherlands
India
Barbados
Mexico
France
Australia
Luxembourg
United States
Israel
Denmark
Argentina
Germany
United Kingdom
China
6. $362
$250
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2014 Bitcoin VC Investment Exceeded Early-Stage
Internet Investment
Note: Internet figures includeonly first sequence venture deals. All figures unadjusted for inflation,
changes in the cost of launching a startupover last two decades, etc. Further methodology discussion.
Data sources: CoinDesk, PricewaterhouseCoopers
2014 Bitcoin 1995 Internet
Bitcoin vs Early Internet VC Investment ($m)
Millions
7. 2015 YTD Investment +94% vs. 2014
$224m
$436m
2014 VC investment (as of Sep. 7)
2015 YTD VC investment
Data sources: CoinDesk, CrunchBase
8. Bigger VC Deals Suggest Healthy Funding Environment
*Note: 21Inc. Is excludedbecause theprecise timing of when the$116m was raised by 21 Inc. in various
individual stages, has not beenrevealed.
Source: CoinDesk
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2
Millions
*
9. Total VC Investment and Average VC Deal Size
Projected to Plummet in Q3
Note: Q3 2015 projectedbased on run rate as of Sept. 9 2015
Data sources: CoinDesk, CrunchBase
Millions
Millions
$74
$133
$228
$145
$81
$3
$4
$10 $10
$8
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015
Quaterly VC Investment ($m)
Quarterly Total VC Investment ($m) QuarterlyAverage VC Investment Deal Size ($m)
10. $362
$631
$250
$639
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2015 Bitcoin VC Projected to Fall Behind of Early-Stage
Internet
Note: Internet figures includeonly first sequence venture deals. All figures unadjusted for inflation,
changes in the cost of launching a startupover last two decades, etc. Further methodology discussion.
Q3 2015 projected basedon run rate as of Sept.9 2015
Data sources: CoinDesk, PricewaterhouseCoopers
2014 Bitcoin 2015 Bitcoin -
Projected
1995 Internet 1996 Internet
Bitcoin vs Early Internet VC Investment ($m)
Millions
11. BitLicense Imposes High Costs on Startups
Source: CoinDesk. Image from BitStamp
• Bitstamp NY
license application
cost roughly $100k
George Frost
Chef legal officer, Bitstamp
Ceased NY Operations
15
BitLicense Applications
22
12. Dark Market Bitcoin Transactions Approximately Equal
to BitPay Transaction Volume
Sources: Soska and Christin (2015) ‘Measuring theLongitudinal Evolution of theOnline Anonymous
Marketplace Ecosystem’, CoinDesk
BitPay
Dark
Market
13. Regulators Don’t Want to Kill the Golden Goose
Images from Google
• Initial sales tax
moratorium
• Avoided costly phone
company designation
14. Xapo Moves Headquarters from Silicon Valley to
Switzerland Citing Customer Privacy Concerns
14Source: CoinDesk
• “This is not to facilitate crime, this is
to protect privacy”
• “There are some customers that will
bring more balances if we do this
and there are some customers who
have said ‘we will work with you if
you do this’”Wences Casares
Xapo CEO
16. Bitcoin Academic Research Increased Exponentially,
33% of Publications Economics Related
Note: data collection for 2015is still in progress. Sources: search ‘Bitcoin’ on JSTOR, Science
Direct, Ingenta,Microsoft academic search, SpringerLink, SSRN, Taylor and Francis, Wiley, ArXiv,
Oxford Journals and Cambridge Journals. Peer-to-Peer Review: The State of Academic Bitcoin
Research 2014
Number of Bitcoin Academic Research
in Each Year
Distribution of Bitcoin Academic Research
Economics
33%
Finance
8%
Accounting
1%
Computer
Science &
Engineering
16%
Cryptograph
y and
security
12%
Environment
1%
Law
19%
Politics
2%
Sociology
8%
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
17. Q3 Most-Viewed CoinDesk Articles;
Four Articles are Related to Bitcoin’s Price
Rank Title Date
1 Bitcoin price falls 14% following Bitfinex 'flash crash' August 19
2 Wedbush report projects $400 bitcoin price by 2016 July 10
3 Russian president Vladimir Putin addresses digital currency July 14
4 Bitcoin price slumps following Bitfinex outage August 24
5 8 banking giants embracing bitcoin and blockchain tech July 27
6 Coin.Mx execs arrested for operating illegal bitcoin exchange July 21
7 Bitcoin 'forked' in controversial bid to resolve scalability question August 17
8 Bitcoin price falls below $200, hits six-month low August 25
9 Forget gold, bitcoin is backed by time July 4
10 Double spending risk remains after July 4th bitcoin fork July 6
Source: CoinDesk top 10 stories basedon page views
CoinDesk’s Top 10 Most Viewed Stories in Q3
18. $200
$220
$240
$260
$280
$300
$320
1-Jul 8-Jul 15-Jul 22-Jul 29-Jul 5-Aug 12-Aug 19-Aug 26-Aug 2-Sep
Bitcoin Price Volatility Returned in Q3
9 August
Bitcoin exchanges
Kraken and Bitfinex
cut services in New
York
Source: CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index, daily datacollectedat 00:00 UTC
6 July
Double
spending risk
remains after
July 4th bitcoin
fork
Mt Gox CEO Mark
Karpeles arrested
in Japan
1 August
30 August
UK banking giant
Barclays to allow
charities to accept
bitcoin
21 July
Bitcoin
exchange itBit
launches OTC
trading desk
30 July
Ethereum launches
long-awaited
decentralized app
network
17 August
Bitcoin ‘hard fork’
proposed in
controversial bid
to resolve
scalability
question
14 July
Bitcoin price rallies
amid financial
uncertainty in
China and Greece
19. Greece is Not Alone:
24 Countries Have an Ongoing Debt Crisis …
Sources: Jubilee Debt Campaign, Guardian. Images from Wikipedia
Tunisia
St Vincent and the
Grenadines
Portugal
Sri Lanka
Jamaica
Spain
Montenegro
Ireland
Croatia
Marshall
Islands
Greece
Costa Rica
Macedonia
Zimbabwe
El Salvador
Belize
Lebanon
Sudan
Grenada
Dominican
Republic
Armenia
The Gambia
Ukraine
Cyprus
20. … and 14 More Are Vulnerable to a Debt Crisis
Samoa
Ethiopia
Laos
Mauritania
Dominica
Cape Verde Senegal
Bhutan
Ghana
Tanzania
Uganda
Sao Tome e
Principe
Mozambique
Mongolia
Sources: Jubilee Debt Campaign, Guardian. Images from Wikipedia
21. Major Events that Would Possibly Impact Bitcoin Price:
Interest Rate Hike-Strong US Dollar
Source: itBit report: Impact of US Interest Rate Hike on Bitcoin
22. Projecting a 43% Increase in Q3 New Wallets Over Q2
*Note: Q3 2015 projectedbased on run rate as of Sept. 9 2015
Data source: Blockchain.info
118.286
514.583
481.258
343.121
480.715
451.294 454.435
488.303
696.436
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15*
Thousands
Number of New Wallets Added Each Quarter
23. Expedia: Purchases With Bitcoin Are Down 40%
• The lack of overall understanding
regarding bitcoin was again an inhibiting
factor
• "If we give them a bitcoin payment, they
don't know what to do with it, it's not a
currency they understand.”
• "We accept bitcoin as a way of just
allowing customers to pay with whatever
method they want to pay. For us, bitcoin is
on an even playing field with the other
payment types we offer."
Source: CoinDesk
Connie Chung
Senior payments product
manager at Expedia
24. Factoring in Remittance Fees Makes Sub-Saharan
Africa Most Fertile Market for Bitcoin
Source: Hileman (2014) ‘Bitcoin Market Potential Index’, LondonSchool of Economics working paper
Announcement article: http://www.coindesk.com/argentina-most-likely-adopt-bitcoin/
BMPI
Regional Distribution -
Top 30
BMPI
Regional Distribution -
Top 10
Post-Soviet/
Communist,
10%
Sub-Saharan
Africa, 40%
US &
Canada,
10%
Latin America,
20%
Middle East &
North Africa,
10%
Europe,
10%
Asia, 0%
Post-Soviet/
Communist,
17%
Sub-Saharan
Africa, 40%
US & Canada,
3%
Latin America,
17%
Middle East &
North Africa,
13%
Europe,3%
Asia,
7%
25. North America and Europe Continue to Have the Most
Bitcoin-Accepting Businesses
Source: coinmap.org (screenshot of 9 September 2014 and2015)
26. As Hype Surrounding iPhone 6 Launch Has
Diminished So Has Apple Pay Usage
Sources: Pymnts.com, Bank Innovation
March 2015 June 2015
Percentage of eligible Apple Pay
users who had tried the service
15.1% 13.1%
Usage of Apple Pay in
transactions
39.3% 23%
Committed user 48% 33%
Not sure how it works 31% 34%
Forgot to use 32% 34%
Concern about security 15% 19%
Fears about it working 1% 4%
When it comes to using a new payment rail, people have similar concerns about
security and how it works, regardless of whether it is Apple Pay or Bitcoin
29. ‘Wall Street’ Should Take Blockchain Technology
Seriously
Sources: YouTube, CoinDesk, LinkedIn
“Distributed ledger technology does have the
potential to be disruptive in certain business
models, but it has at least as much potential
to be enormously empowering in existing
middle business models in terms of making
them lower cost, more efficient and less risky.”
“So we won’t get there overnight but we will
get there. How seriously should you take this?
I would take it about as seriously as you
should’ve taken the concept to the Internet in
the early 1990s. It’s a big deal and it is going
to change the way that our financial world
operates.”Blythe Masters,
CEO of Digital Assets
Holdings LLC
30. ‘Wall Street’ Is Taking Blockchain Technology Seriously
Source: The Financial Services Club's Blog. Images from LinkedIn
Jay Reinemann
Executive director of
BBVAVentures
Duncan Niederauer
CEO of NYSE Euronext
John Reed
Chairman and CEO of
Citibank
Thomas F Dapp
Research Analyst,
Deutsche Bank
Oliver Bussmann
CIO, UBS
Bob Greifeld
CEO, Nasdaq
31. Engaged in independent
experimentor partnered
with bitcoin startups
Published reports on
blockchain or bitcoin
Invested in bitcoin startups
Banks Embracing Blockchain Technology in 3 Ways
Sources: Fidor Bank, CBW Bank, RBS, ANZ, Westpac, Commonwealth Bank ,
Santander, Llyods Bank, BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs, BBVA, Barclays, Let’s Talk
Payment, CoinDesk
32. Startup Ecosystem:
Seven Different Industry Sectors
Payment
Processing
Wallets
Mining
Financial
Services
Exchanges
Infrastructure
Source: CoinDesk
Universal