Risk management and bounded rationality

My.ComMetrics.com
ComMetrics

Session 8: Risk management bounded rationality
how it works in business

Presented by

http://info.cytrap.eu/?p=134
social media trends 2011
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Who is: Urs E. Gattiker?
http://bio.gattiker.name
Urs E. Gattiker , Ph.D.
2008_06_16

ComMetrics
_About my 10 sessions:

Slides – copies – latest version that I use in class can be found here:
==> http://www.slideshare.net/ComMetricsUniversity

You can also watch videos at:
==> http://www.youtube.com/ComMetrics

2011_01_18

_Introduction >Purpose >HowTo >Tools & Tips >Decision >Conclusions

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_One more thing

Please try to focus on the following:

3 most critical things we learned today

3 things I love to get more infos about

We will discuss at the end

2011_01_17


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_Wrap up from last session

3 critical things learned – students listed/mentioned the following

2011_01_17


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_3 most critical things we learned yesterday

- Conflicting triangle

- Communication of strategy

- How to better search on Google - Tip

- SM – reach different target group(s) for different purposes

- Style does matter --- besides content, of course

- Marketing/PR is push – Social Media (SM) is pull

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-Strategy involves 1st clients, employees, suppliers and last
shareholders

- WordPress software allows you to manage a website, it is also a
content management system (CMS)

. Have different e-mail addresses for different purposes (newsletter
subscriptions, business, news) helps when you change jobs & fight spam

- SM can mean that a few people can make a lot of noise – sometimes even
a small group can convince management to change brand logo, etc.

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- Coming up with ideas and putting it into practice takes planning and
time

- Accept that mistakes happen

- Social Media enables non-geeks to do many things, technology is
the backend

- KISS – Keep it simple, stupid
http://howto.commetrics.com/?page_id=132

-SMART metrics http://howto.commetrics.com/?page_id=104

- Social Media is not only B2C but also involves B2B
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_Example from a client

How can we make these things work

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_the client – check your data

#1 Research says we need to use social media in 2011
Challenge better, more, etc.

Strategy: do – it – But we assessed the risks, cost-benefit,
Believe the above cited study? Margin of error?

http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_US/us/press/Press-

Releases/795bde62061cc210VgnVCM3000001c56f00aRCRD.html

2011_01_18


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_the client – check your data

Solution hold up your hand if you hate research methodology?

Sample, type of research, statistics, context of study?

Big risk is when using one research report....
Do I make my decision based on useful information reported in the
White Paper or do the findings not apply to my situation?

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_3 Why it matters – today‘s 3 nuggets

1 What is risk?

2 How can one assess and manage risks?

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_Purpose

What is this all about?

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>Introduction _Purpose >HowTo >Tools & Tips >Decision >Conclusions

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_What is risk?

Definition in textbook?
Does you textbook define risk?
How was risk defined in other MBA courses?
Can you define systematic and unsystematic risk?

What is your company‘s risk policy?
(please bring document to class)

::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

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_What is risk?

CyTRAP Labs - risk

- what amount of risk taking is aceptable to your organization

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_What is risk?

Risk never sleeps

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDmBLF4-PzA&NR=1

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_What is risk?

Inadvertent geo-tagging on your smartphone

http://www.icanstalku.com/how.php

Facebook unless you de-activate you can be geo-tagged

http://commetrics.com/?p=10242 (near buttom – video)

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_What is risk?

http://www.myfoxboston.com/dpp/news/special_reports/geotagging-
putting-you-at-risk-20101109 video about geo-tagging

Ask your friends before you mindlessly share being at the same
restaurant or gondola.

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_From Purpose to HowTo

How do we put this into practice?

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>Introduction >Purpose _HowTo >Tools & Tips >Decision >Conclusions

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_Why is risk so difficult to grasp

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laKprX-HP94&feature=related

- How can we make it simpler – KISS is key

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_KISS –

Each tries to identify the worst expected loss
based on some confidence

But they have a different
approach in how they
describe the distribution of
losses

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_3 assigned readings – Topic 8

- we choose a student to moderate the discussion – you can
volunteer yourself for today or for tomorrow

- please have your notes ready – all students

- Chosen reading is:

- Could your risk management approach regarding IT, data,
marketing strategy, R&D fail?
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_Tools & Tips – e-mails

- What can we do to manage that risk.... ?

- What type of risks are we talking about?

2011_01_18

>Introduction >Purpose >HowTo _Tools & Tips >Decision >Conclusions

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_Tools & Tips

- What about compliance and e-mail?

- What do you do if I cannot reach your e-mail because the spam
filter is to tough (does not let my e-mail pass)?

- What kind of compliance issue is this?

- Why use a private permanent address?
a – work address
b – private address
Fred-Thomas, Roland, Thomas, etc.
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_Decision time – how do we deal with risks?

- What can an organization do when it fails to run
its governance properly?

- What can the regulator do? Have financial
markets changed because of the regulators?

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_Student Case – Fred-Thomas Altaner

- Fred-Thomas leads discussion

-2009-11-15 - Why You Can't Use Personal Technology at the Office
-2010-03-08 - Are Macs Really Cheaper To Manage Than PCs?

-We will relate the above readings to strategy, risk management and
so forth

2011_01_18

>Introduction >Purpose >HowTo >Tools & Tips _Decision >Conclusions

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_Innovation

http://vimeo.com/6893285
How to predict earth quakes ---
9 min video Einstein/Swiss TV in German but with English sub-titles

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_Margin of Error

50 year maturity bonds as an example

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_Margin of error - How do
we know we are right?

How well the survey sample
represents the population is gauged
by two important statistics

1 - the survey's margin of error and
2 - the confidence level.

Level of confidence
is a measure of how confident
we are in a given margin of
error (often people use 95%).

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_How do we know we
are right?

The margin of error and level of confidence depend on the
sample size (and NOT on population size).

A confidence level of 95 percent, plus or minus 3 percent means
that if this student or client survey is conducted 100 times, and if
we get 50% to say it is very good, the percentage who consider
career services ‘very good’ will range between 47 and 53 percent
most of the time (i.e. 95 percent)

Citation: Gattiker, U. E. (January 4, 2011). Raise your hand if you hate research. ComMetrics eBook series
#2011-01, Zurich: CyTRAP Labs GmbH.

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_One last thing – Wrap-up

What we learned

2011_01_18

>Introduction >Purpose >HowTo >Tools & Tips >Decision _Conclusions

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_One last thing – Wrap-up

1 What is risk?

2 How can one assess and manage risks?

2011_01_18


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_One more thing

Please discuss:

3 most critical things we learned today

3 things I love to get more infos about

2011_01_17


My.ComMetrics.com
ComMetrics

Session 8: Risk management and bounded rationality
how it works in business

Presented by http://My.ComMetrics.com (free registration)
http://ComMetrics.com (blog)

Roentgenstrasse 49 Street
social media trends 2011 CH-8005 Zuerich Zip Code

Switzerland Country
ComMetrics blog checklist
+41(0)44 272 1876 Voice

+41(0)76 200 7778 Cell
info@CyTRAP.eu Google Talk
Urs E. Gattiker , Ph.D.
www.ComMetrics.com URL
2008_06_16

Risk management and bounded rationality

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