The document summarizes recent political developments in Yemen, Iran, Somalia, and Pakistan. In Yemen, the death of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh led to splintering within the General People's Congress party. In Iran, recent anti-government protests have lost momentum due to crackdowns by security forces and lack of centralized leadership among protesters. In Somalia, escalating tensions between the federal government and the powerful Habar Gedir clan are destabilizing the central government. In Pakistan, Islamist political parties are leveraging tensions between the US and Pakistan to gain popularity ahead of 2018 elections.

1. 1
Threat Update: January 9, 2018
Iran
The General People’s Congress (GPC) party splintered following the
death of former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had led
the party. An anti–Saudi-led coalition GPC faction organized in Sana’a,
preserving a remnant of the al Houthi-Saleh partnership. Other GPC
members and former Saleh loyalists declared support for the Saudi-
led coalition against the al Houthis. The coalition-backed GPC faction
will struggle to draw support away from the al Houthi movement in
northern Yemen, where opposition to the Saudi-led coalition bombing
campaign is high.
Yemen
The Iranian regime security forces’ preparedness and protesters’ lack
of centralized leadership and arms caused the recent wave of anti-
regime protests in Iran to lose momentum. Regime officials did not
regard the protest movement as an existential threat and have blamed
Iran's enemies for manipulating the people. Corruption and economic
mismanagement make it unlikely officials will be able to fulfill promises
to address the protesters' economic grievances in the near future.
Protests could therefore return in coming months if people become
frustrated with delays in addressing their concerns.

2. 2
Threat Update: January 9, 2018
Escalating tensions between the Somali Federal Government (SFG) and
a powerful clan are destabilizing the Somali central government.
Leaders from the Habar Gedir clan and opposition parties called for the
impeachment of Somalia’s president in response to several raids
against clan members by SFG-linked forces. The Habar Gedir clan
contributes significant manpower and funds to the Somali National Army
(SNA). Conflict between the SFG and Habar Gedir could fracture the
SNA.
Somalia
Pakistan
Islamist political parties are leveraging high tensions between the U.S.
and Pakistan to challenge the ruling party. The U.S. suspended aid to
Pakistan, citing insufficient counterterrorism efforts. Anti-American political
parties, which are rising in the polls, accused the current Pakistani
administration of selling Pakistan to the U.S. The Pakistani government is
unlikely to carry out its threats to sever ties with the U.S., but the
diplomatic crisis may boost anti-American political parties in Pakistan’s
2018 elections.

3. Yemen
3Randy Morton
Pro-Saleh bloc fractures after leader’s death
1. Al Hudaydah, DEC:
Republican Guard forces
joined a coalition offensive
on Yemen’s western front.
2. Riyadh, DEC: The
Saudi-led coalition
pledged safe passage to
GPC members defecting
from Sana’a.
3. Ma’rib, DEC-JAN: Anti-
al Houthi GPC members
fleeing Sana’a transited
through Ma’rib.
4. Dubai, DEC-JAN:
Ahmed Ali, Saleh’s son,
positioned himself as a
potential GPC leader.
5. Sana’a, JAN: The
Sana’a GPC faction
appointed a new leader.
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1
5
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4. Horn of
Africa
4Matthew Cassidy
SFG targets Habar Gedir clan members
25 AUG: The SFG refused
to prosecute troops or pay
blood money after a raid
that killed Habar Gedir
members.
17 DEC: SNA forces raided the
home of opposition leader
Abdirahman Abdishakur Warsame
and arrested him for treason. A
regional court ordered his release
due to insufficient evidence.
30 DEC: Suspected SNA
forces raided the home of
Senator Abdi Hassan
Awale Qaybdiid. The SFG
denied responsibility.
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5. Pakistan
5Matthew Cassidy
Islamist political parties leverage U.S.-
Pakistan tension
09 NOV: Five ultra-
conservative Islamist parties
reestablished a coalition
party that used anti-American
sentiment to gain seats in the
national parliament in 2002.
1
01 JAN: Pakistan seized the
assets of Lashkar-e-Taiba
founder Hafiz Saeed but
denied that the seizure was a
response to U.S. pressure.
05 JAN:
• Pakistani opposition groups
accused the ruling party of selling
Pakistan to the U.S.
• Anti-American Pakistani
opposition parties rose in recent
polls for Pakistan’s 2018 elections.
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6. Acronym List
AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia
AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades
BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council
CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad
CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad
GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group
ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham
JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen
GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord
LNA: Libyan National Army
MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad
MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional
Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the
Azawad
MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna
MUJAO: Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa
SNA: Somalia National Army
TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
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7. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575.
Frederick W. Kagan
Director
Critical Threats Project Team
Katherine Zimmerman
Research Manager
Caroline Goodson
Program Manager
al Qaeda Analysts
Emily Estelle
Maher Farrukh
Iran Analysts
Marie Donovan
Mike Saidi
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