1. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE-FACTS
By:
Dr. Vinay Kumar Pandey
Ph.D., M.Sc. (Geology), M. Sc. (Disaster Mitigation)
E-mail: vinay78pandey@gmail.com
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2. CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change is a
significant and lasting
change in the statistic
distribution of weather
patterns over periods
ranging from decades to
millions of years.
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3. CAUSES OF CHANGE IN GLOBAL
CLIMATE
• Change in Earth Orbit
• Variable Solar
Radiation/Output
• ALBEDO (Reflectivity)
Effects
• Greenhouse effects
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4. 1. CHANGE IN EARTH ORBIT-
MILANKOVITCH CYCLES
• The concept of Milankovitch Cycles was developed by the Serbian
mathematician Milutin Milankovitch (1930). They take account of
three variations in the orbit of the earth around the sun.
• Earth orbit changes from being nearly circular to slightly elliptical.
This cycle affected by other planets in the solar system.
• The angle of tilt of the earth axis changes from 22.1⁰ to 24.5⁰.
• The direction of the tilt of the axis changes (precession) on a cycle of
26,000 years.
These changes define the sequence of ice ages and warm periods.
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5. These changes influence the length of the seasons and the
amount of solar radiation received by the earth and5 define the 05/03/2013
sequence of ice ages & warm ages.
6. 2. VARIABLE SOLAR RADIATION
It appears that our Sun does not transmit a constant
intensity of radiation: observations indicate a variability of
0.1-0.2%. If solar output decreases for a period of time, it
causes cooling on Earth.
Although sunspot activity is cyclical (22 years), we do not
currently have an accurate concept of how solar output
has changed (and will change) on longer time scales.
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9. 3. ALBEDO EFFECTS
It is defined as the ratio of Hence, periods when polar
reflected radiation from the ice becomes very extended
surface to incident radiation
upon it. will promote further
It may expressed as a cooling.
percentage, and is Dust in the atmosphere has
measured on a scale from the same effect: it forms a
zero for no reflecting power high albedo veil around the
of a perfectly black surface, Earth, so that much solar
to 1 for perfect reflection of radiation is reflected before
a white surface. it reaches the surface. The
Ocean water have low dust may come from dry
albedo whereas land masses climate periods, volcanic
have moderate albedo. The
highest albedo is snow and eruptions or other means.
ice (very light in color).
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12. 4. GREENHOUSE GASSES
The greenhouse effect is a Greenhouse gases reduce the
process by which thermal net radiation loss and
radiation from a planetary stabilized the average global
surface is absorbed by temperature.
atmospheric greenhouse Without this effect, the Earth
gases, and is re-radiated in would be cold and
all directions. inhospitable.
If there is no greenhouse Main greenhouse gases & their
gases, the earth would be percentage on earth are:
radiate energy into space Water vapor, 36-70%
and average global Carbon dioxide, 9-26%
temperature would be (-) Methane, 4-9%
15⁰C. Ozone, 3-7%
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14. PLATE TECTONICS AND GREENHOUSE
EFFECTS
Huge volume of Carbon dioxide are injected into the ocean and atmosphere
during plate tectonic activities as earthquake and volcanoes.
The annual transported of carbon to & from the land surface & the atmosphere
and the ocean & the atmosphere is estimated 120 GtC (Gigatonnes of Carbon)
& 90 GtC respectively, and total natural emission is 210 GtC.
The annual emission of Carbon dioxide to the atmosphere resulting from
human activity is, by comparison, about 7 GtC (about 3% of total natural
annual emissions from the biosphere and the ocean).
Change in the natural transport of carbon, as well as human activity, have led
to recent increases in atmosphere concentration of carbon dioxide.
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16. EVIDENCES OF PAST GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGES
There is no single instrument measuring climate change. Instead
there are thousands of measuring devices spread across the
globe, on land, under the sea and in the air.
Physical evidence for and examples of climatic change:
1) Temperature measurements and proxies 7) Precipitation
2) Historical and archaeological evidence 8) Dendroclimatology
3) Glaciers 9) Ice cores
4) Arctic sea ice loss 10) Animals
5) Vegetation 11) Sea level change
6) Pollen analysis
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17. VARIATION OF TEMP. AND CARBON DIOXIDE IN EARTH LIFE
CYCLE
This graph indicates that there is no direct relationship between CO2 percentage in the
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atmosphere and global temperature. CO2 was much higher in past.
19. Graph indicates recent year relation between global climate change, CO2 percentage and Sunspots.
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No direct relation of CO2 in global climate change.
20. .
Graph indicates that temperature varies as Solar irradiance change. Presently Solar
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Irradiance is decreasing so global temp should be low.
21. CLIMATE VARIAION IN THE LAST MILLION YEARS
Warm age & Ice age is natural cycle. Previously earth was comparatively warm and
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cold as per current climate.
23. NINE FACTS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE
-RAY EVANS (Nov 2006)
Fact 1. Climate change is a constant. The Vostok Ice Cores show five brief
interglacial periods from 415,000 years ago to the present. The Greenland
Ice Cores reveal a Minoan Warm Period 1450-1300 BC, a Roman Warm
Period 250-0 BC, the Mediaeval Warm Period 800-1100AD, the Little Ice
Age and the late 20th Century Warm Period 1900-2010 AD.
Fact 2. Carbon dioxide is necessary for all life on earth and increasing
atmospheric concentrations are beneficial to plant growth, particularly in
arid conditions.
Fact 3. The twentieth century was almost as warm as the centuries of the
Mediaeval Warm Period (1450-1300 BC), an era of great achievement in
European civilisation. The recent warm period, 1976-2000, appears to
have come to an end and astro-physicists who study sunspot behavior
predict that the next 25-50 years could be a cool period similar to the
Dalton Minimum of the 1790s-1820s. 23 05/03/2013
24. Fact 4. The evidence linking anthropogenic (man-made) carbon dioxide
emissions and current warming is limited to a correlation which holds only
for the period 1976 to 2000. Attempts to construct an holistic theory in
which atmospheric carbon dioxide controls the radiation balance of the
earth, and thus determines average global temperatures, have failed.
Fact 5. The anthropogenists claim that the overwhelming majority of
scientists are agreed on the anthropogenic carbon dioxide theory of
climate control; that the science is settled and the debate is over; and that
scientific sceptics are in the pay of the fossil fuel industries and their
arguments are thus fatally compromised. These claims are an expression
of hope, not of reality.
Fact 6. Anthropogenists blame, anthropogenic emissions of CO2 for high
temperatures, droughts, melting polar ice caps, rising sea levels and
retreating glaciers, and a decline in the polar bear population.
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25. Fact 7. They also blame anthropogenic CO2 for blizzards, unseasonable
snow, freezing weather generally and for hurricanes, cyclones and other
extreme weather events. There is no evidence at all to justify these
assertions. Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide will
have negligible impact on the earth’s radiation balance and will promote
plant growth everywhere.
Fact 8. 'Tropical' diseases such as malaria and dengue fever are not
related to temperature but to poverty, lack of sanitation and the absence
of mosquito control practices.
Fact 9. The decarbonisation of the world's economy would, if attempted,
cause huge economic dislocation. Any democratic government which
seriously sought to fulfill decarbonisation commitments would lose
office. Shutting down coal-fired power stations and replacing them with
renewable energy sources such as windmills or solar panels will cause
unemployment and economic deprivation.
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26. SOLAR CYCLE AND GLOBAL TEMPARATURE
The sun turns through 180 degrees every 11 years and our earth
orbit comes close to the same parts of the sun that it came
close to 11 years earlier.
The graph below shows the solar-cycles in global temperatures
reasonably clearly. The vertical grid lines are 11-year solar cycle
intervals and the solid thin line is the annual mean global surface
temperatures, as published by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
The mean temperature for each 11-year solar cycle interval is shown
by the dashed horizontal lines and that value is written in each
interval. For example, the last solar cycle from 1999 to 2010 averaged
14.39 degrees C – the hottest 11-year solar cycle since the end of the
mini ice age in 1850. (Source: Ian Levy, Jan 2012)
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28. On the basis of above graph Solar Cycle and Global Temperature,
following results comes out:
There appears to be a strong, solar-related cyclical pattern in global
temperatures. Why can’t the overall warming trend also be
predominantly solar-induced and not human-induced?
Human-induced CO2 increased strongly from 1878 to 1911 but global
temperatures fell quite strongly for 33 years – this 33 years of non-
correlation between human-induced CO2 build-up and falling global
temperatures for 33 years cannot be ignored as a minor aberration.
Human-induced CO2 increased strongly from 1944 to 1977 but global
temperatures did not rise – they actually fell. Again, this 33-year period
of non-correlation with CO2 cannot be ignored.
If CO2 is the dominant control on global temperatures, why don’t
temperatures increase steadily in proportion to CO2 levels rather than
in a cyclical manner that seems to be more related to the sun’s seasonal
thermal cycles?
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29. Prediction
of future
global
climate (
Decrease
in temp)
change,
on the
basis of
Milankovit
ch Cycles.
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Past Age Present Time Future
30. Predicted Temp
Observed Temp.
Observed
surface
warming
graph are
differ from
predicted
temperature
graph.
Surface
temp has
been falling
since year
2010.
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31. Global average temp increased + 1.44°C Global average temp decreased (-) 0.08°C
from year 1983 to 1997. AND CO2 from year 1998 to 2012. AND CO2
concentration increased by 343 to 364 concentration increased by 364 to 394
ppm. ppm.
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32. CONCLUSION
Climate change is a constant feature of Earth.
Human-induced CO2 will increase strongly for at least the next
33years as China and India industrialise. If global temperatures do
not rise significantly during this next 33-year period, will we
conclude that this was a result of political action against “climate
change” or will we conclude that it is probably part of a long-term
solar cycle?
Anthropogenic (man made) activities are not playing major role in
present climate change.
Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) data has been
confirmed that despite of massive increase in anthropogenic
activities CO2, global temperature goes down & it is differ from
prediction.
There is no direct relation in concentration of Carbon dioxide in
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atmosphere and global temperature.
33. References
Nine Facts about Climate Change- Ray Evans, Nov 2006,
Published by Lavoisier Group.
A Watershed Year for Global Temperature Trends?
Update- Ian Levy, Jan 2012.
Various Internet sites.
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