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•  U#liza#on	
  of	
  gene#c	
  diversity	
  
•  Core	
  collec#on	
  subset	
  
•  Trait	
  mining	
  selec#on	
  (FIGS)	
  
•  Computer	
  modeling	
  
•  Some	
  examples	
  (FIGS)	
  



                                                2	
  
 
                                    wild	
  tomato	
  




                                      tomato	
  

teosinte	
     corn,	
  maize	
                          3	
  
B	
                                  B	
                                  A	
  
                         C	
                                  A	
                                  A	
  
                A	
                                  A	
                                  A	
  

       Crop	
  Wild	
  Rela#ves	
           Tradi#onal	
  landraces	
                 Modern	
  cul#vars	
  


Gene/c	
  bo1lenecks	
  during	
  crop	
  domes/ca/on	
  and	
  during	
  modern	
  plant	
  breeding.	
  
The	
  circles	
  represent	
  allelic	
  varia#on.	
  The	
  funnels	
  represents	
  allelic	
  varia#on	
  of	
  genes	
  
found	
  in	
  the	
  crop	
  wild	
  rela#ves,	
  but	
  gradually	
  lost	
  during	
  domes#ca#on,	
  tradi#onal	
  
cul#va#on	
  and	
  modern	
  plant	
  breeding.	
  
                                                                                                                                4	
  
5	
  
•  Scien#sts	
  and	
  plant	
  breeders	
  want	
  a	
  
   few	
  hundred	
  germplasm	
  accessions	
  
   to	
  evaluate	
  for	
  a	
  par#cular	
  trait.	
  
•  How	
  does	
  the	
  scien#st	
  select	
  a	
  small	
  
   subset	
  likely	
  to	
  have	
  the	
  useful	
  trait?	
  

•  Example:	
  More	
  than	
  560	
  000	
  wheat	
  
   accessions	
  in	
  genebanks	
  worldwide.	
  


            Slide	
  adopted	
  from	
  a	
  slide	
  by	
  Ken	
  Street,	
  ICARDA	
  (FIGS	
  team)	
     6	
  
•  The	
  scien#st	
  or	
  the	
  breeder	
  
   need	
  a	
  smaller	
  subset	
  to	
  cope	
  
   with	
  the	
  field	
  	
  screening	
  
   experiments.	
  
•  A	
  common	
  approach	
  is	
  to	
  
   create	
  a	
  so-­‐called	
  core	
  
   collec/on.	
  
                      Sir	
  OYo	
  H.	
  Frankel	
  (1900-­‐1998)	
  
                      proposed	
  a	
  limited	
  set	
  
                      established	
  from	
  an	
  exis#ng	
  
                      collec#on	
  with	
  
                                      between	
  its	
  entries.	
  

                      The	
  core	
  collec#on	
  is	
  of	
  limited	
  
                      size	
  and	
  chosen	
  to	
  
                                                	
  of	
  a	
  large	
  
                                                                            7	
  
                      collec#on	
  (1984)	
  .	
  
•  Given	
  that	
  the	
  trait	
  
   property	
  you	
  are	
  looking	
  
   for	
  is	
  rela#vely	
  rare:	
  
•  Perhaps	
  as	
  rare	
  as	
  a	
  
   unique	
  allele	
  for	
  one	
  
   single	
  landrace	
  cul#var...	
  
•  Geang	
  what	
  you	
  want	
  is	
  
   largely	
  a	
  ques#on	
  of	
  
   LUCK!	
  
                                                                                                                             8	
  
                            Slide	
  adopted	
  from	
  a	
  slide	
  by	
  Ken	
  Street,	
  ICARDA	
  (FIGS	
  team)	
  
9	
  
 Objec/ve	
  of	
  this	
  study:	
  	
  

  –  Explore	
  climate	
  data	
  as	
  a	
  
     predic#on	
  model	
  for	
  “computer	
  
     pre-­‐screening”	
  of	
  crop	
  traits	
  
     BEFORE	
  full	
  scale	
  field	
  trials.	
  

  –  Iden#fica#on	
  of	
  landraces	
  with	
  a	
  
     higher	
  probability	
  of	
  holding	
  an	
  
     interes#ng	
  trait	
  property.	
  
                                                        10	
  
Wild	
  rela#ves	
  are	
  shaped	
  	
     Primi#ve	
  cul#vated	
  crops	
            Tradi#onal	
  cul#vated	
  crops	
  
by	
  the	
  environment	
                  are	
  shaped	
  by	
  local	
              (landraces)	
  are	
  shaped	
  by	
  
                                            climate	
  and	
  humans	
                  climate	
  and	
  humans	
  




            Modern	
  cul#vated	
  crops	
  are	
                  Perhaps	
  future	
  crops	
  are	
  
            mostly	
  shaped	
  by	
  humans	
                     shaped	
  in	
  the	
  molecular	
  
            (plant	
  breeders)	
                                  laboratory…?	
                                                11	
  
•  Primi#ve	
  crops	
  and	
  tradi#onal	
  landraces	
  
   are	
  an	
  important	
  source	
  for	
  novel	
  traits	
  
   for	
  improvement	
  of	
  modern	
  crops.	
  
•  Landraces	
  are	
  ohen	
  not	
  well	
  described	
  for	
  
   the	
  economically	
  valuable	
  traits.	
  

•  Iden#fica#on	
  of	
  novel	
  crop	
  traits	
  will	
  ohen	
  
   be	
  the	
  result	
  of	
  a	
  larger	
  field	
  trial	
  
   screening	
  project	
  (thousands	
  of	
  individual	
  
   plants).	
  
•  Large	
  scale	
  field	
  trials	
  are	
  very	
  costly,	
  area	
  
   and	
  human	
  working	
  hours.	
  
                                                                            12	
  
 Assump/on:	
  the	
  climate	
  at	
  the	
  
    original	
  source	
  loca#on,	
  where	
  
    the	
  landrace	
  was	
  developed	
  
    during	
  long-­‐term	
  tradi#onal	
  
    cul#va#on,	
  is	
  correlated	
  to	
  the	
  
    trait	
  score.	
  	
  


	
  Aim:	
  to	
  build	
  a	
  computer	
  
    model	
  explaining	
  the	
  crop	
  trait	
  
    score	
  (dependent	
  variables)	
  from	
  
    the	
  climate	
  data	
  (independent	
  
    variables).	
  
                                                      13	
  
1)  Landrace	
  samples	
  (genebank	
  seed	
  accessions)	
  
 2)  Trait	
  observa#ons	
  (experimental	
  design)	
  -­‐	
  High	
  cost	
  data	
  
 3)  Climate	
  data	
  (for	
  the	
  landrace	
  loca#on	
  of	
  origin)	
  -­‐	
  Low	
  cost	
  data	
  




• 	
  The	
  accession	
  iden#fier	
  (accession	
  number)	
  provides	
  the	
  bridge	
  to	
  the	
  crop	
  trait	
  observa#ons.	
  
• 	
  The	
  longitude,	
  la/tude	
  coordinates	
  for	
  the	
  original	
  collec#ng	
  site	
  of	
  the	
  accessions	
  (landraces)	
  provide	
  the	
  
bridge	
  to	
  the	
  environmental	
  data.	
  	
  
                                                                                                                                                                   14	
  
Alnarp,	
  Sweden	
       Lima,	
  Peru	
  




           Svalbard	
            Benin	
  

                                         15	
  
Faba	
  bean,	
  Finland	
                          Field	
  trials,	
  Gatersleben,	
  Germany	
     Potato	
  Priekuli	
  Latvia	
  




Forage	
  crops,	
  Dotnuva,	
  Lithuania	
         Radish	
  (S.	
  Jeppson)	
                       Linnés	
  äpple	
  




                                                                                                                                                                                 16	
  
 Powdery	
  Mildew,	
  	
            Leaf	
  spots	
                   Yellow	
  rust	
               Black	
  stem	
  rust	
  
 Blumeria	
  graminis	
              Ascochyta	
  sp.	
                Puccinia	
  strilformis	
      Puccinia	
  graminis	
             hYp://barley.ipk-­‐gatersleben.de	
  	
  
 The	
  climate	
  data	
  is	
  extracted	
  from	
  
    the	
  WorldClim	
  dataset.	
  
	
  hYp://www.worldclim.org/	
  	
  
	
  Data	
  from	
  weather	
  sta#ons	
  
    worldwide	
  are	
  combined	
  	
  to	
  a	
  
    con#nuous	
  surface	
  layer.	
  
	
  Climate	
  data	
  for	
  each	
  landrace	
  is	
      Precipita#on:	
  20	
  590	
  sta#ons	
  
    extracted	
  from	
  this	
  surface	
  layer.	
  




                                                            Temperature:	
  7	
  280	
  sta#ons	
  
                                                                                                        17	
  
FIGS	
  selec#on	
  is	
  a	
  
new	
  method	
  to	
  
predict	
  crop	
  traits	
  of	
  
primi#ve	
  cul#vated	
  
material	
  from	
  
climate	
  variables	
  by	
  
using	
  mul#variate	
  
sta#s#cal	
  methods.	
  	
  



                                      18	
  
What is                             hYp://www.figstraitmine.org/	
  	
  




    Mediterranean	
  region	
  




Origin of Concept (1980s):
Wheat and barley landraces from              South	
  Australia	
  
marine soils in the Mediterranean
region provided genetic variation
                                           Slide made by
for boron toxicity.                        Michael Mackay 1995            19	
  
FIGS	
  
	
  The	
  FIGS	
  technology	
  takes	
  much	
  of	
  the	
  guess	
  
    work	
  out	
  of	
  choosing	
  which	
  accessions	
  are	
  most	
  
    likely	
  to	
  contain	
  the	
  specific	
  characteris#cs	
  being	
  
    sought	
  by	
  plant	
  breeders	
  to	
  improve	
  plant	
  
    produc#vity	
  across	
  numerous	
  challenging	
  
    environments. 	
  	
  hYp://www.figstraitmine.org/	
  	
  
                      	
  	
  




                                                                                   20	
   20	
  
Slide made by
Michael Mackay 1995


                      21	
  
22	
  
–  For	
  the	
  ini#al	
  calibra#on	
  or	
  training	
  
   step.	
  


–  Further	
  calibra#on,	
  tuning	
  step	
  
–  Ohen	
  cross-­‐valida#on	
  on	
  the	
  training	
  
   set	
  is	
  used	
  to	
  reduce	
  the	
  consump#on	
  
   of	
  raw	
  data.	
  


–  For	
  the	
  model	
  valida#on	
  or	
  goodness	
  of	
  
   fit	
  tes#ng.	
  
–  New	
  external	
  data,	
  not	
  used	
  in	
  the	
  
   model	
  calibra#on.	
  


                                                                  23	
  
–  No	
  model	
  can	
  ever	
  be	
  absolutely	
  correct	
  
–  A	
  simula#on	
  model	
  can	
  only	
  be	
  an	
  
   approxima#on	
  
–  A	
  model	
  is	
  always	
  created	
  for	
  a	
  specific	
  
   purpose	
  


–  The	
  simula#on	
  model	
  is	
  applied	
  to	
  make	
  
   predic#ons	
  based	
  on	
  new	
  fresh	
  data	
  
–  Be	
  aware	
  to	
  avoid	
  extrapola#on	
  problems	
           24	
  
25	
  
•  No	
  sources	
  of	
  Sunn	
  pest	
  resistance	
  
   previously	
  found	
  in	
  hexaploid	
  wheat.	
  
•  2	
  000	
  accessions	
  screened	
  at	
  ICARDA	
  
   without	
  result	
  (during	
  last	
  7	
  years).	
  
•  A	
  FIGS	
  set	
  of	
  534	
  accessions	
  was	
  
   developed	
  and	
  screened	
  (2007,	
  2008).	
  	
  
•  10	
  resistant	
  accessions	
  were	
  found!	
  
    •  The	
  FIGS	
  selec#on	
  started	
  from	
  16	
  000	
  landraces	
  from	
  
       VIR,	
  ICARDA	
  and	
  AWCC	
  
    •  Exclude	
  origin	
  CHN,	
  PAK,	
  IND	
  were	
  Sunn	
  pest	
  only	
  
       recently	
  reported	
  (6	
  328	
  acc).	
  
    •  Only	
  accession	
  per	
  collec#ng	
  site	
  (2	
  830	
  acc).	
  
    •  Excluding	
  dry	
  environments	
  below	
  280	
  mm/year	
  
    •  Excluding	
  sites	
  of	
  low	
  winter	
  temperature	
  below	
  10	
  
       degrees	
  Celsius	
  (1	
  502	
  acc)	
  

               hYp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10722-­‐009-­‐9427-­‐1	
  	
  


                           Slide	
  adopted	
  from	
  Ken	
  Street,	
  ICARDA	
  (FIGS	
  team)	
     26	
  
27	
  
Priekuli	
  (L)	
     Bjorke	
  (N)	
     Landskrona	
  (S)	
  
Heading	
     Ripening	
     Length	
     H-­‐Index	
     Vol	
  wgt	
     TGW	
     Priekuli	
  (L)	
     Bjorke	
  (N)	
     Landskrona	
  (S)	
  



                                                                                                                                 	
  
                                                                                                                                                       28	
  
Michael	
  Mackay	
  
                                                                     FIGS	
  coordinator	
  




•  Barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. vulgare) collected                   Ken	
  Street	
  
                                                                     FIGS	
  project	
  leader	
  

   from different countries worldwide screened for
   susceptibility of net blotch infection (1676
   greenhouse + 2975 field observations).
•  Net blotch is a common disease of barley caused by                Harold	
  Bockelman	
  
   the fungus Pyrenophora teres. 	
                                  Net	
  blotch	
  data	
  


•  Screened at four USDA research stations: North
   Dakota (Langdon, Fargo), Minnesota (Stephen),
   Georgia (Athens).
                                                                     Eddy	
  De	
  Pauw	
  
                                                                     Climate	
  data	
  
         •  1-3 are basically resistant  group 1
         •  4-6 are intermediate         group 2
         •  7-9 are susceptible          group 3

•  Discriminant analysis (DA):                                       Dag	
  Endresen	
  
                                                                     Data	
  analysis	
  
         •  Correctly classified groups: 45.9% in the training set
            and 44.4% in the test set.
         •  Work in progress! (SIMCA, D-PLS)
                                                                                       29	
  
30	
  

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Trait data mining at European pre-breeding workshop at Alnarp (25 Nov 2009)

  • 1.
  • 2. •  U#liza#on  of  gene#c  diversity   •  Core  collec#on  subset   •  Trait  mining  selec#on  (FIGS)   •  Computer  modeling   •  Some  examples  (FIGS)   2  
  • 3.   wild  tomato   tomato   teosinte   corn,  maize   3  
  • 4. B   B   A   C   A   A   A   A   A   Crop  Wild  Rela#ves   Tradi#onal  landraces   Modern  cul#vars   Gene/c  bo1lenecks  during  crop  domes/ca/on  and  during  modern  plant  breeding.   The  circles  represent  allelic  varia#on.  The  funnels  represents  allelic  varia#on  of  genes   found  in  the  crop  wild  rela#ves,  but  gradually  lost  during  domes#ca#on,  tradi#onal   cul#va#on  and  modern  plant  breeding.   4  
  • 6. •  Scien#sts  and  plant  breeders  want  a   few  hundred  germplasm  accessions   to  evaluate  for  a  par#cular  trait.   •  How  does  the  scien#st  select  a  small   subset  likely  to  have  the  useful  trait?   •  Example:  More  than  560  000  wheat   accessions  in  genebanks  worldwide.   Slide  adopted  from  a  slide  by  Ken  Street,  ICARDA  (FIGS  team)   6  
  • 7. •  The  scien#st  or  the  breeder   need  a  smaller  subset  to  cope   with  the  field    screening   experiments.   •  A  common  approach  is  to   create  a  so-­‐called  core   collec/on.   Sir  OYo  H.  Frankel  (1900-­‐1998)   proposed  a  limited  set   established  from  an  exis#ng   collec#on  with   between  its  entries.   The  core  collec#on  is  of  limited   size  and  chosen  to    of  a  large   7   collec#on  (1984)  .  
  • 8. •  Given  that  the  trait   property  you  are  looking   for  is  rela#vely  rare:   •  Perhaps  as  rare  as  a   unique  allele  for  one   single  landrace  cul#var...   •  Geang  what  you  want  is   largely  a  ques#on  of   LUCK!   8   Slide  adopted  from  a  slide  by  Ken  Street,  ICARDA  (FIGS  team)  
  • 10.  Objec/ve  of  this  study:     –  Explore  climate  data  as  a   predic#on  model  for  “computer   pre-­‐screening”  of  crop  traits   BEFORE  full  scale  field  trials.   –  Iden#fica#on  of  landraces  with  a   higher  probability  of  holding  an   interes#ng  trait  property.   10  
  • 11. Wild  rela#ves  are  shaped     Primi#ve  cul#vated  crops   Tradi#onal  cul#vated  crops   by  the  environment   are  shaped  by  local   (landraces)  are  shaped  by   climate  and  humans   climate  and  humans   Modern  cul#vated  crops  are   Perhaps  future  crops  are   mostly  shaped  by  humans   shaped  in  the  molecular   (plant  breeders)   laboratory…?   11  
  • 12. •  Primi#ve  crops  and  tradi#onal  landraces   are  an  important  source  for  novel  traits   for  improvement  of  modern  crops.   •  Landraces  are  ohen  not  well  described  for   the  economically  valuable  traits.   •  Iden#fica#on  of  novel  crop  traits  will  ohen   be  the  result  of  a  larger  field  trial   screening  project  (thousands  of  individual   plants).   •  Large  scale  field  trials  are  very  costly,  area   and  human  working  hours.   12  
  • 13.  Assump/on:  the  climate  at  the   original  source  loca#on,  where   the  landrace  was  developed   during  long-­‐term  tradi#onal   cul#va#on,  is  correlated  to  the   trait  score.      Aim:  to  build  a  computer   model  explaining  the  crop  trait   score  (dependent  variables)  from   the  climate  data  (independent   variables).   13  
  • 14. 1)  Landrace  samples  (genebank  seed  accessions)   2)  Trait  observa#ons  (experimental  design)  -­‐  High  cost  data   3)  Climate  data  (for  the  landrace  loca#on  of  origin)  -­‐  Low  cost  data   •   The  accession  iden#fier  (accession  number)  provides  the  bridge  to  the  crop  trait  observa#ons.   •   The  longitude,  la/tude  coordinates  for  the  original  collec#ng  site  of  the  accessions  (landraces)  provide  the   bridge  to  the  environmental  data.     14  
  • 15. Alnarp,  Sweden   Lima,  Peru   Svalbard   Benin   15  
  • 16. Faba  bean,  Finland   Field  trials,  Gatersleben,  Germany   Potato  Priekuli  Latvia   Forage  crops,  Dotnuva,  Lithuania   Radish  (S.  Jeppson)   Linnés  äpple   16   Powdery  Mildew,     Leaf  spots   Yellow  rust   Black  stem  rust   Blumeria  graminis   Ascochyta  sp.   Puccinia  strilformis   Puccinia  graminis   hYp://barley.ipk-­‐gatersleben.de    
  • 17.  The  climate  data  is  extracted  from   the  WorldClim  dataset.    hYp://www.worldclim.org/      Data  from  weather  sta#ons   worldwide  are  combined    to  a   con#nuous  surface  layer.    Climate  data  for  each  landrace  is   Precipita#on:  20  590  sta#ons   extracted  from  this  surface  layer.   Temperature:  7  280  sta#ons   17  
  • 18. FIGS  selec#on  is  a   new  method  to   predict  crop  traits  of   primi#ve  cul#vated   material  from   climate  variables  by   using  mul#variate   sta#s#cal  methods.     18  
  • 19. What is hYp://www.figstraitmine.org/     Mediterranean  region   Origin of Concept (1980s): Wheat and barley landraces from South  Australia   marine soils in the Mediterranean region provided genetic variation Slide made by for boron toxicity. Michael Mackay 1995 19  
  • 20. FIGS    The  FIGS  technology  takes  much  of  the  guess   work  out  of  choosing  which  accessions  are  most   likely  to  contain  the  specific  characteris#cs  being   sought  by  plant  breeders  to  improve  plant   produc#vity  across  numerous  challenging   environments.    hYp://www.figstraitmine.org/         20   20  
  • 21. Slide made by Michael Mackay 1995 21  
  • 22. 22  
  • 23. –  For  the  ini#al  calibra#on  or  training   step.   –  Further  calibra#on,  tuning  step   –  Ohen  cross-­‐valida#on  on  the  training   set  is  used  to  reduce  the  consump#on   of  raw  data.   –  For  the  model  valida#on  or  goodness  of   fit  tes#ng.   –  New  external  data,  not  used  in  the   model  calibra#on.   23  
  • 24. –  No  model  can  ever  be  absolutely  correct   –  A  simula#on  model  can  only  be  an   approxima#on   –  A  model  is  always  created  for  a  specific   purpose   –  The  simula#on  model  is  applied  to  make   predic#ons  based  on  new  fresh  data   –  Be  aware  to  avoid  extrapola#on  problems   24  
  • 25. 25  
  • 26. •  No  sources  of  Sunn  pest  resistance   previously  found  in  hexaploid  wheat.   •  2  000  accessions  screened  at  ICARDA   without  result  (during  last  7  years).   •  A  FIGS  set  of  534  accessions  was   developed  and  screened  (2007,  2008).     •  10  resistant  accessions  were  found!   •  The  FIGS  selec#on  started  from  16  000  landraces  from   VIR,  ICARDA  and  AWCC   •  Exclude  origin  CHN,  PAK,  IND  were  Sunn  pest  only   recently  reported  (6  328  acc).   •  Only  accession  per  collec#ng  site  (2  830  acc).   •  Excluding  dry  environments  below  280  mm/year   •  Excluding  sites  of  low  winter  temperature  below  10   degrees  Celsius  (1  502  acc)   hYp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10722-­‐009-­‐9427-­‐1     Slide  adopted  from  Ken  Street,  ICARDA  (FIGS  team)   26  
  • 27. 27   Priekuli  (L)   Bjorke  (N)   Landskrona  (S)  
  • 28. Heading   Ripening   Length   H-­‐Index   Vol  wgt   TGW   Priekuli  (L)   Bjorke  (N)   Landskrona  (S)     28  
  • 29. Michael  Mackay   FIGS  coordinator   •  Barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. vulgare) collected Ken  Street   FIGS  project  leader   from different countries worldwide screened for susceptibility of net blotch infection (1676 greenhouse + 2975 field observations). •  Net blotch is a common disease of barley caused by Harold  Bockelman   the fungus Pyrenophora teres.   Net  blotch  data   •  Screened at four USDA research stations: North Dakota (Langdon, Fargo), Minnesota (Stephen), Georgia (Athens). Eddy  De  Pauw   Climate  data   •  1-3 are basically resistant  group 1 •  4-6 are intermediate  group 2 •  7-9 are susceptible  group 3 •  Discriminant analysis (DA): Dag  Endresen   Data  analysis   •  Correctly classified groups: 45.9% in the training set and 44.4% in the test set. •  Work in progress! (SIMCA, D-PLS) 29  
  • 30. 30