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© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
Cross-Device Targeting:
What to Watch for in 2016
Lauren T. Fisher
Senior Analyst
January 14, 2016
Made possible by

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Agenda
 The current state of cross-device targeting
 The two main methodologies behind cross-device
targeting
 Seven things to watch for in 2016

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The Current State of
Cross-Device Targeting

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When it comes to delivering on cross-device
promises, we’d like to think we’re here …

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Or even here …

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But in reality,
we’re here:

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It’s a problem
for buyers, but
it’s also a
problem for
sellers

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An inability to identify individuals across all
devices in a universal manner is the key obstacle
“There’s a lot of conversation around
whether or not we are going to get to
a single identifier that’s going to
be the holy grail of connecting a
person across all devices and
channels. I don’t think we’re
necessarily any closer.”
—Pete LaFond, VP of Marketing, TruSignal

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How It’s Done Today:
The Two Audience
Identification Methods

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Most companies today use one or both of the
following identification methods:
 Deterministic identification
 Probabilistic identification

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Deterministic Identification
 How it works: Relies on known-user information to recognize,
with near-certain confidence, an individual on each of his or her
internet-connected devices.
 Examples of data used: Anonymized login data, CRM-level data,
email address or customer ID.
 Companies taking a deterministic approach: Facebook,
Google, AOL, Amazon.com, The Weather Company, eBay, others.

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Probabilistic Identification
 How it works: Uses a mix of publicly available
ad-serving data to assess the statistical probability that a
specific device belongs to a particular individual.
 Examples of data used: IP address, browser version, operating
system data, device type, browsing behavior, content consumption
patterns, location-based data and time of day.

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The methods might be distinct, but increasingly,
both buyers and sellers use a blend of both

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Seven Things to Watch for
in 2016

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1. Preference for deterministic data will drive
buyers deeper into ‘walled gardens’

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2. It will also
raise the
importance of
collecting and
utilizing
first-party
data

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Email will be
the primary
match key

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But outside of
the walled
gardens like
Facebook,
email and
other
first-party
data use
won’t be
seamless—at
least not yet

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As buyers bring first-party data to walled
gardens, they’ll be frustrated by lack of output
“If you’re a marketer of a big brand,
you’re in a bit of a quandary at the
moment because you have players
like Facebook and Google, and they
have a lot of data you want to
leverage. But they are pretty hell-bent
on making sure that if you are going
to leverage their data with yours, then
you have to give your data to
them, and not the other way
around.” —James Green, CEO, Magnetic

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3. Decoupling of cross-device media and
technology will gain steam

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4. Questions about cross-device measurement
and match rates will cause added concerns
“If you look at both Nielsen OCR and
comScore VCE, both are based on
panels. So even as precise as my
data is, how do I know that it’s
going to score well against
comScore’s methodology?
I don’t. That’s a problem both for
us and for advertisers.”
—Sasha Berman, VP of Product, AOL Platforms

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5. TV will
become a big
factor in the
cross-device
equation

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In many
cases,
cross-device
targeting will
be about
finding TV
audiences
again in
digital

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Ultimately,
addressable
TV will be the
preferred way
to bring things
together. But
addressability
remains the
exception, not
the rule

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In the interim, expect partnerships to form

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6. First-party data consortiums will pop up
“There are probably any number of
consortia of publishers out there that
are looking at building large,
deterministic match sets.
… If you put the right group of players
together, it will get us the quality and
ability to solve both the targeting
and the attribution problems.”
—Dave Smith, VP of Yield and Monetization,
Pandora

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7. As cross-device means using more data
across more devices, privacy concerns will rise
96%
Portion of US internet users either “very” or “somewhat”
concerned about data privacy and how companies use
their data
Source: Gigya, “The 2015 State of Consumer Privacy and Personalization,” July 2015

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Greater
transparency and
consumer control
will be paramount
to navigating
cross-device in a
privacy-conscious
manner

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But consumers aren’t the only ones concerned
about how their data is being used
“Given the value of their
first-party data and what it takes
to collect it, [clients] are very, very
concerned about how it’s
being used and that it is not used
for anything besides their very, very
specific purposes.”
—Alan Beiagi, Senior Director, Products at DataXu

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Key Takeaways:
 Know how deterministic and probabilistic methods fit into
your strategy
 Recognize that the thirst for deterministic data will lead to
greater reliance on walled gardens
 It will also fuel greater focus on collecting and utilizing
first-party data
 Anticipate consumer privacy concerns and be mindful of
your own data
 Start factoring TV into the cross-device equation

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© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Impact of getting identity right
Tying Mobile to
Desktop
Average Deduplication
+25%
Better Attribution
w/2-3 device exposure
Impressions to Convert
-50%
Better Advertising
w/restated user
reporting
Reporting $ Value
+50%
Better Reporting
Mobile Profile Extension A/B Testing Consistency
© 2016 Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.

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© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Trend: Market to people, not devices
Breaking Down Device Silos
X XX

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© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Trend: Market to people, not devices
Connecting The Dots

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© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
Deterministic
PRO: High level of confidence
CON: Low Scale
Probabilistic
PRO: High scale
CON: Lower level of confidence
Looking for more clarity about
your customer audience?
To get the most complete view
of your customers bring both
Deterministic and
Probabilistic marketing
strategies together.

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© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.
ADOBE AUDIENCE MANAGER
Leverage cross device signals to identify
individuals and better understand your
customers
Power personalization across all digital
channel
Find powerful audience insights through 2nd
and 3rd party partners

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© 2016 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.© 2015 Adobe Systems Incorporated. All Rights Reserved. Adobe Confidential.

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© 2016 eMarketer Inc.
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Lauren T. Fisher
Cross-Device Targeting:
What to Watch for in 2016
 Cross-Device Targeting: First-Party Data, TV and Privacy are
Big Factors for 2016
 Cross-Platform Attribution 2015: Device Identification, Big Data
Pose Continued Challenges
 Cross-Device Search Marketing: As Search Goes Multidevice,
Ad Targeting and Measurement Struggle to Keep Pace
 Programmatic TV Advertising: Bringing Data-Driven Audience
Buying to the ‘First Screen’