2. 1- Introduction to ERA.
2- Overview.
3- Definition of ERA.
4- the Basic framework of ERA.
5- ERA in the Context of EIA.
6- Problems with terminology.
7- Legislative and policy background.
8- Key Steps in Performing an ERA.
9- Different Levels Of ERA.
10- Challenges facing the ERA.
11- Risk Communication.
12- Conclusion.

3. Risk Provide an answer to three keys questions:
- What can go wrong ?
- How likely is it ?
- What are the consequences ?

4. -what can be done to manage any risks
identified & who should be involved?

5. Mainly on:
Environmental
Issues
Ecological
Issues
Human
Issues
Not mentioned “Economical Concerns” as well !

6. There is now a wealth of publications 
coming from a guiding principles set by
governments for Public Domain Risk
Analyses, To handbooks Describe more
detailed approaches to a particular
aspect of risk assessment.
In the last ten years, there have been 
several seminal textbooks summarizing
a wealth of scientific papers on all
aspects of ecological and human risk
assessment.

7. EIA practitioners are also increasingly 
familiarsing themselves with risk assessment
as a complementary and powerful tool for
analysis.
However, ERA are typically undertaken by a 
separate specialists (trained for example in
software applications).

8. Despite the government guidance , there 
are still some issues related to where the
term “Impact” is used , rightly or wrongly
In an interchangeable way with “Risk”.

9. this chapter was written with the
needs of the EIA practitioners in
mind, rather than a Risk Specialist.
And it seeks to demonstrate the
considerable benefits of following a
Risk-Based approach.

10. From an EIA perspective, Risk Assessment 
has conventionally been used as a tool for
“prediction” & “Evaluation”.
But this chapter Also seeks to explore it’s role as
a complementary approach in it’s own rights.

11. Risk Assessment is well established in fields 
of banking, Insurance, & Engineering as a
management tool for dealing with
“Uncertainty”.
It is also used as a tool for improving 
occupational safety & setting priorities for
the allocation of resources.

12.  Back several decades, Individuals used risk
assessment Consciously or Sub-Consciously, in
their everyday lives.
 Such as Negotiating a busy road as a pedestrian,
or place a bet on a horse race.
 However, these days Risk Assessment Techniques
have been extended to wider Environmental
Considerations.

13. Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA):
a generic term for a series of tools and techniques
concerned with the structured gathering of available
information about Environmental Risks, and then the
formation of a judgment about them.
Risk Management: Involves reaching decisions on a
range of options that balance these risks against the
costs and benefits ( Specifically Including the
Environmental Costs and Benefits).

14. Communicating the nature and scale of risk and 
the options is also a key part of the process.
The next sketch shows the basic elements of a
framework within which ERA may be carried out.
Including the options of generic and tailored
Quantitative Risk Assessment.
QRA : use of measurable , objective data to determine asset
of values , probability of loss , and Associated Risk(s).
http://www.businessdictionary.com

15. Risk Screening
Risk Prioritisation
High Priority Risk
Generic QRA
Low
Priority
Risks
Complex Risks
Tailored QRA
Iteration
Options Appraisal
Social
Issues
Technical
Assessment
Economics
Environmental
Management
Risk Management

16. ERA and EIA are often overlap and are mutually supportive for 
each other, as they both deal with Uncertainty.
Uncertainty: Is an inherent and unavoidable aspect of EIA 
and is a characteristic of all natural systems.
Uncertainty arise from a variety of sources , Including the 
available Data and The Decision making Process it self.
Approaches for managing uncertainty have been developed in 
parallel with risk assessment techniques.

17.  ERA and EIA are very similar concepts that broadly have
the same goals and tools that can inform decision-makers
about frequency and magnitude of adverse environmental
impacts that arise from certain activities.
 A major additional aspect provided by ERA is that it can
provide probabilities to predicted impacts.
 As a response to that, a manager would like to mitigate or
eliminate that particular impact or to reduce it’s potential
risk.
 Alternative sites or technology options may be desirable
when doing risk management as seen in the next example.

18.  Type ( Flood Risk Assessment )
 Description ( the procedure set out by the Government
aims to avoid inappropriate development in areas at risk
from flooding ).
 A Flood Risk Assessment ( needs to assess the risk from all
forms of flooding , to and from , the development and
demonstrate how these flood risks will be managed ,
taking climatic changes into account ).

19.  ERA Ensuring acceptability of site-specific risks and
Hazards.
 ERAs are Legal requirement for activates that
potentially cause damage to the environment or
human Health.
 However, the question arises as to when in the
planning process ERAs should be carried out?
- LPAs have stipulated that ERA should submitted at
the same time as an EIA.

20.  As for that, potentially there are considerable
Cost-Saving and time advantages by combining
approaches such as ERA and EIA.

21. One of the difficulties with the concept of risk is that it
has been developed and applied across a broad range
of disciplines and activities, leading to different
Terminologies.

22. Such as The following definitions that employed in this
chapter:
Hazard: a property or situation with the potential to cause
Harm.
Risk: a combination of the probability, or frequency of the
occurrence of a particular hazard and the Magnitude of
the adverse effects or harm arising to the quality of human
health or the environment.
Probability: the occurrence of a particular event in a given
period of time or among a number of possible events.
Risk Management: the process of implementing decisions
about accepting or altering risks.

23. When EIA has been evolving for more than two decades
in UK, it’s only in the last decades that policies for
consistent approaches to risk assessment have been
developed for environmental protection.
Then many regulations and proposed legislation
required for Human Health Risk Assessment.
Risk assessment concerned with ecosystem is still not
specifically defined in legislation unlike EIA.

24. In the other hand, risk terminology has crept into the
ecological chapters of many Environmental Statements
in the UK, promoted by the acceptance of Uncertainty
about Impacts and effectiveness of it’s Mitigations.
And as for Interest groups and source of information , ERA
and Management had been undertaken as a
commitment to Sustainable Development.
For Example : The Environmental Agency, through it’s
National Center for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal.

25. 1- Hazard identification and Analysis.
For a hazard to result in harm there must be a way in which
it can be affect a “Receptor”.
Or as some specialists use the term “Source (Hazard)–
pathway–receptor”.
For example in Flood Defense Scheme might be:
-How likely is it that the scheme will over-topped with flood
water? (Hazard)
-How might people living on the neighboring floodplain be
exposed? (Pathway)
-What effects might be experienced by an exposed
individual? (Receptor)

26. Event tree analysis: is an accepted means of undertaking
hazard analysis.
It’s Important not to make them to complicated for the easy
of understanding.
Example: event tree analysis for accidental spillages and
pollution risk (next slide).
Hazard analysis also involve Estimating the probability or
chance of occurrence of a particular Hazard.

27. Do nothing (severe pollution)
significant
Monitor
Intervene (contain and mitigate)
Do Nothing
insignificant
Do nothing (severe pollution)
significant
SPILLAGE
Monitor
Intervene (contain and mitigate)
Monitor
insignificant
Do nothing (severe pollution)
Intervene
significant
Point of uncertainty
Final Value
Monitor
Intervene (contain and mitigate)
insignificant

28. 2- Exposure Assessment.
Examine the potential consequences associated with
exposure to a hazardous event. Ex-(Chemical Spell).
By taking account for these considerations:
I - A clear definition of the hazard.
II - the characteristic of the local environment.
III - the behavior of the Hazard.
IV - the specific “Dose-Response” relationships that
might be known for particular species or
environmental feature.

29. Determining the 1st factor is relatively straightforward process
, but to determine the other 3 is difficult & complex.
(Example of a various levels of consequences)
Very High Risk: Ecosystem Irreversibly altered, no recovery,
over 100Km2affected.
High Risk: Ecosystem altered, but not irreversibly, recover
may take long as 50 years, 50-100 Km2 affected.
Moderate Risk: only one component of the ecosystem
affected, 10 years of recovery period.
Low Risk: Temporary alternation, less than 0.5Km2, less than
5 years of recovery period.
Very Low Risk: Temporary alternation, very localized, and
minor consequences.

30. 3- Risk Estimation.
Risk can be determined by combining the result of
hazard and consequences analysis.
The simplest form of Risk Estimation is “matrix”.
Such matrices designed to be simple or complex as
appropriate.
Approaches to complete these matrices can be
qualitative, quantative, or a combination for both.
Such approaches that considered more complex or more
controversial, the use of “Multi-Criteria Analysis”.

31.  In Risk Estimations , sometimes it is possible to present
risk results in Numerical Terms.
 Example : that there is a 20% chance that the use of
pesticide will lead to the loss of 50% of butterfly in a
certain ecosystem.

32.  The important in this step is in the “Judgment of the
acceptability of the risk” , By considering it’s effect on
Human health and the Environmental Components.
 Option appraisal can be useful in authoring “Alternative”
Ex : For Each option, what are risks, costs and Benefits?

33. In risk management it is possibly to pinpoint where the
improvements could be made.
Risk Management uses the ERA’s Results to Mitigate or
eliminate unacceptable Risks.
But it’s important that to consider where or not a
particular risk management measures not to lead to a
secondary consequences.
Also in risk management, it’s important not to direct a
huge fund at a minor Risk.

34. The different levels of risk assessment can be describe as
following :
1- Risk Screening : determine the range of risks , and the
factors that control whether they will result in
environmental changes.
2- Risk Prioritization : Describe the most Important
Risks.
3- Generic Quantative Risk Assessment : the use of
generally available and tested models to provide a simple
quantification of the risks.
4- Tailored Quantative Risk Assessment : the
development of a specific models to meet a particular
purposes (Usually Complex And Costly).

35. Since ERA deals with Uncertainty measurements , the
main challenges that facing ERA are related to some
factors that leading to Uncertainty in ERA as described
in the next slide.

36. 1- Ecosystems are open, dynamic and complex system with
“Built-in” variability and Recoverability.
2- Individuals sub-systems may be interdependent.
3- recovery from a particular impacts may be over a time span
longer than human life.
4- it’s sometimes difficult to measure causal relationships.
5- persisted materials may cause Irreversible changes.
6- Synergistic Impacts may arise.
7- perceived risk(s) may be just as important as the real risk (if
not more).

37. However, if the best available information at the 
time is used, and erroneous data discounted, the
gross errors can be Avoided.

38. Risk communication mean : that all decision-making
should bring together all relevant social, political,
economic, and ethical factors in selecting an
appropriate risk management option.
Communicating allow people to participate in decisionmaking and management processes, if they where
effectively presented.
It is important that communication between risk experts
and decision-makers is appropriate.

39. A more open approaches in risk communication is to create
a dialogue about what the public already knows about
risk and to take on board the public’s insight and views on
particular risk management option.
In communicating risk it is important for risk experts to
convey that there is no such thing as “risk-free” world.
And there are considerable uncertainties in scientific
knowledge.

40. EIA and ERA are Similar forms of impact assessment.
While EIA currently remains the predominantly used tool
for assessing the potential impacts of projects and
proposals.
also it is clear that ERA has much to offer both in
supportive capacity and as a complementary technique.

41. Risk Assessment Can Avoid Giving Wrong Answers
But It Cannot Give Uniquely Right Answers