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A Pragmatic AI Maturity Model

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“Artificial Intelligence” covers a wide range of technologies today, including those that enable machine vision, effective computing, deep learning, and natural language processing. As advances increase, so do expectations. We now see a rush to add “AI inside” for applications and appliances in almost every domain. The reality is that some firms will have mega-hits with AI-enabled applications, and many more will suffer setbacks based on flawed adoption strategies.

This webinar will present an assessment of key AI technologies today, and help participants identify promising applications based on matching requirements to mature-enough technologies.

Publié dans : Technologie
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A Pragmatic AI Maturity Model

  1. 1. FEBRUARY 7, 2018 A Pragmatic AI Maturity Model Adrian Bowles, PhD Founder, STORM Insights, Inc. Lead Analyst, AI, Aragon Research info@storminsights.com
  2. 2. Context & Definitions Building a Maturity Model 5+1 Major AI Technology Categories Maturity By Category Enterprise Readiness Assessment Application Assessment  Recommendations AGENDA Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  3. 3. FIRST, DEFINE TERMS Artificial Intelligence Automated Intelligence Augmented Intelligence Amplified Intelligence Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  4. 4. #MODERN AI INCLUDES ARTIFICIAL, AUTOMATED, AUGMENTED, AMPLIFIED PERCEPTION UNDERSTANDING LEARNING PROBLEM-SOLVING NATURAL LANGUAGE PROCESSING Big Data Classic AI Deep Learning Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  5. 5. Maslow - Hierarchy of Needs - 1943
 
 
 SEI CMM - 1988
 
 
 … MATURITY MODELS Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. Self- Actualization Esteem Social Safety Physiological Optimizing Managed Defined Repeatable Initial Measures the formality/rigor of the software development process. Theory of the basis for human motivation.
  6. 6. INTEGRATING MODELS - PEOPLE ARE IMPORTANT Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  7. 7. PROCESS IS STILL IMPORTANT, BUT WE NEED NEW DIMENSIONS Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. Initial People Technology Application Skills Acquisition Refinement Requirements Alignment
  8. 8. ALIGNING APPLICATION REQUIREMENTS WITH “MATURE ENOUGH” TECHNOLOGIES Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. Initial Technologies Application Refinement Robust Reliable Certifiable… Requirements Alignment Initial Data Determinism Uncertainty Explainability… Utility Threshold
  9. 9. Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. Technologies Maturity/ Refinement Initial Core Cognitive HCI Input HCI OutputFoundation AI M2M I/O Utility Threshold A MODEL FOR IDENTIFYING “MATURE ENOUGH” TECHNOLOGIES Demonstrated reliability & validity
  10. 10. Our Goal - Model This Intersection Well Enough to Find Opportunities Mature Enough AI Technologies Enterprise Application Requirements Finding Opportunities Opportunities Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  11. 11. Experience- Based Learning Foundation Core Cognitive Functions Advanced HCI Expanded Reality Integrate Augmented/Virtual Reality Affective Computing Reasoning Natural Language Processing Cloud … Analytics Data Management Abstraction & Understanding AdvancedHWArchitectures: Neuromorphic,GPU,FGPA,TPU… THE MODERN AI TECHNOLOGY STACK Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  12. 12. Systems Controls LearnReason Understand Model Data Mgmt Human Machine Input Output Gestures Emotions Language Narrative Generation Visualization Reports Haptics Sensors (IOT) Systems Controls THE MODERN AI LANDSCAPE Perception Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  13. 13. v LearnReason Understand Model AI MATURITY IS NOT EVENLY DISTRIBUTED: 0 DATA MGMT 0Data Mgmt RDF OWL Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  14. 14. Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. Technologies Maturity/ Refinement Core Cognitive HCI Input HCI OutputFoundation AI M2M I/O Utility Threshold A MODEL FOR IDENTIFYING “MATURE ENOUGH” TECHNOLOGIES Initial
  15. 15. LearnReason Understand Model Data Mgmt AI MATURITY IS NOT EVENLY DISTRIBUTED: 1. THE COGNITIVE CORE 1 Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  16. 16. RECOGNIZING CONCEPTS VS UNDERSTANDING Courtesy of LoopAI Labs. Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  17. 17. FUNDAMENTAL DESIGN CHOICE: SYMBOLS VS STATISTICS Symbolic Logic Representations Reasoning Concepts Statistical Models Mechanical Theorem Proving Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  18. 18. Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. Supervised Unsupervised Deep General Reinforcement Learning by example, using training data. Strategies based on performance feedback. Discovers patterns based on experience with data. Biologically-inspired ML approach. Leverages simple processing units - analogous to neurosynaptic elements organized in layers that collaborate to solve complex problems. ML MATURING RAPIDLY - ALREADY OVER THE USABILITY THRESHOLD
  19. 19. Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. Technologies Maturity/ Refinement Core Cognitive HCI Input HCI OutputFoundation AI M2M I/O Utility Threshold A MODEL FOR IDENTIFYING “MATURE ENOUGH” TECHNOLOGIES Initial
  20. 20. LearnReason Understand Model Data Mgmt Human Input AI MATURITY IS NOT EVENLY DISTRIBUTED. HCI: PERCEPTIVE INPUT 2 Recognize & Represent Knowledge & Intent Analyze/ Extract Meaning Concepts Context Emotions Gestures, Expressions Language Voice Text Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  21. 21. Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. “You’re Not Just Responsible For What You Say, You Are Responsible For What People Hear” August 9, 2016 General Michael Hayden (Retired), former Director, Central Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency on advice to his senior staff. NATURAL LANGUAGE PROCESSING IS HARD - FOR PEOPLE Watch out for slang, context…
  22. 22. Listen Look Touch Smell Taste Your System Learn Model Reason Understand PERCEPTIVE INPUT: IT’S A NEW SENSATION Perception Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  23. 23. Copyright (c) 2017-18 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. SemanticsText Syntax Voice Structure Meaning Modeled Understanding NATURAL LANGUAGE UNDERSTANDING (NLU) Understanding
  24. 24. Human Input Gestures Language PERCEPTIVE INPUT CLASSIFICATION Context LearnReason Understand Model Data Mgmt Detected by Human Senses Derived ImagesSee Hear Touch Smell Taste Sounds Objects Emotions Meaning Concepts Intent Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  25. 25. Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. Technologies Maturity/ Refinement Core Cognitive HCI Input HCI OutputFoundation AI M2M I/O Utility Threshold A MODEL FOR IDENTIFYING “MATURE ENOUGH” TECHNOLOGIES Initial
  26. 26. LearnReason Understand Model Data Mgmt Human-Oriented Output 3Generate & Present Content Synthesize/ Generate AI MATURITY IS NOT EVENLY DISTRIBUTED. HCI: CONTEXT-APPROPRIATE OUTPUT Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  27. 27. Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. DATA Model/ Article Structure Template Generated Narrative NLG TECHNOLOGY CAN USE EMOTIONS IF THE MODEL SUPPORTS IT Needs Context-Relevant Tone Assignment Data Model
  28. 28. EXPRESSIVE OUTPUT: EMOTIONS, URGENCY Model Emotions Meaning Concepts Intent Context Narrative Generation Images Haptics Animation Using Language, Avatars, Emotive Text to Speech Emotive Output Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  29. 29. Copyright (c) 2017 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. NEUROBEHAVIORAL ANIMATION
  30. 30. Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. Technologies Maturity/ Refinement Core Cognitive HCI Input HCI OutputFoundation AI M2M I/O Utility Threshold A MODEL FOR IDENTIFYING “MATURE ENOUGH” TECHNOLOGIES Initial
  31. 31. LearnReason Understand Model Data Mgmt M2AIM AI MATURITY IS NOT EVENLY DISTRIBUTED 4 5 AIM2M Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved.
  32. 32. Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. Technologies Maturity/ Refinement Core Cognitive HCI Input HCI OutputFoundation AI M2M I/O Utility Threshold A MODEL FOR IDENTIFYING “MATURE ENOUGH” TECHNOLOGIES Initial
  33. 33. Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. Technologies Maturity/ Refinement Core Cognitive HCI Input HCI OutputFoundation AI M2M I/O Utility Threshold A MODEL FOR IDENTIFYING “MATURE ENOUGH” TECHNOLOGIES Initial
  34. 34. Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. FAQ #1 Is AI Ready for Prime Time?
  35. 35. Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. RESPONSE #1 Context Yes.
  36. 36. Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. RESPONSE #2 Context Are You Ready for AI? People? Skills Application? Data Initial People Application Skills Acquisition Requirements Alignment
  37. 37. Copyright (c) 2017-18 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. APPLICATION ALIGNMENT QUESTIONS How important is the ability to provide the “right answer” rather than alternatives ranked by confidence or probability? How important is it for the application to be able to explain how it arrived at its answer(s)? How important is it for this application to improve its performance by learning from its own experience rather than being updated by your own team? How important is it for your users to be able to interact with this application in conversational natural language? Input? Output? What percentage of the data required for this application comes from the following sources? Structured data (records from tables, formatted directories, databases...) a) Your internal data (data that is owned or licensed, such as customer data or mailing lists) b) Third party data that needs to be procured Unstructured text (books, magazines, newspapers, social media feeds...) d) Your internal data (data that is owned or licensed) e) Third party data that needs to be procured Third party data may range from free data in Wikipedia to proprietary sources like Bloomberg, Westlaw… Application Readiness
  38. 38. Copyright (c) 2017-18 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. APPLICATION ALIGNMENT QUESTIONS How important is the ability to provide the “right answer” rather than alternatives ranked by confidence or probability? How important is it for the application to be able to explain how it arrived at its answer(s)? How important is it for this application to improve its performance by learning from its own experience rather than being updated by your own team? How important is it for your users to be able to interact with this application in conversational natural language? Input? Output? What percentage of the data required for this application comes from the following sources? Structured data (records from tables, formatted directories, databases...) a) Your internal data (data that is owned or licensed, such as customer data or mailing lists) b) Third party data that needs to be procured Unstructured text (books, magazines, newspapers, social media feeds...) d) Your internal data (data that is owned or licensed) e) Third party data that needs to be procured Third party data may range from free data in Wikipedia to proprietary sources like Bloomberg, Westlaw…
  39. 39. Copyright (c) 2017-18 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. APPLICATION ALIGNMENT QUESTIONS How important is the ability to provide the “right answer” rather than alternatives ranked by confidence or probability? How important is it for the application to be able to explain how it arrived at its answer(s)? How important is it for this application to improve its performance by learning from its own experience rather than being updated by your own team? How important is it for your users to be able to interact with this application in conversational natural language? Input? Output? What percentage of the data required for this application comes from the following sources? Structured data (records from tables, formatted directories, databases...) a) Your internal data (data that is owned or licensed, such as customer data or mailing lists) b) Third party data that needs to be procured Unstructured text (books, magazines, newspapers, social media feeds...) d) Your internal data (data that is owned or licensed) e) Third party data that needs to be procured Third party data may range from free data in Wikipedia to proprietary sources like Bloomberg, Westlaw…
  40. 40. PROCESS IS STILL IMPORTANT, BUT WE NEED NEW DIMENSIONS Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. Initial People Technology Application Skills Acquisition Refinement Requirements Alignment
  41. 41. LearnReason Understand Model Data Mgmt Human Input M2AIM Human-Oriented Output AI MATURITY IS NOT EVENLY DISTRIBUTED 1 2 3 5 Recognize & Represent Knowledge & Intent 0 AIM2M Generate & Present Content Analyze Synthesize Copyright (c) 2018 by STORM Insights Inc. All Rights Reserved. 4
  42. 42. adrian@storminsights.com Twitter @ajbowles Skype ajbowles KEEP IN TOUCH Upcoming SmartData Webinar Dates & Topics March 8 Machine Learning Update: 
 An Overview of Technology Maturity and Product Vendors April 12 Knowledge as a Service:
 An Introduction to the Emerging Pre-Built Knowledge Market May 10 Case Studies: Transforming Industries with AI 
 (Manufacturing & Retail) AGEOFREASONING.COM BOOK, VIDEOS, PROFESSIONAL SERVICES WWW.AGEOFREASONING.COM COMING SOON…

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