From Baylor Law "Peoples Law School" February 9, 2019 presentation by David Schleicher. Some of the later slides involve items for discussion as to whether particular findings would be likely or not to garner a 2/3rds vote for conviction in the Senate. Earlier slides cover rules governing Special Counsel. If any questions or comments, David's email is david@gov.law

1. MUELLER
INVESTIGATION
What’s
next?

2. DAVID SCHLEICHER
BAYLOR LAW GRAD—ADMITTED DC/TX/WA
CONSTITUTIONAL LAW IN DC
FEDERAL AND STATE LOBBYIST IN DC
LOCAL ELECTED OFFICIAL & PARTY EX-CHAIR
WACO TRIB POLITICAL COLUMNIST
REPRESENTS FEDERAL EMPLOYEES WORLDWIDE—
SUCH AS FIVE AUSAS AND THREE DHS ATTORNEYS

3. Russian government interference in
2016 presidential election
• links/coordination b/t Russian government and
campaign of President Trump;
• “any matters that arose or may arise directly
from the investigation”; and
• other matters in scope of 28 CFR 600.4(a).
+ If Special Counsel believes “necessary and
appropriate,” federal crimes arising from the
investigation of these matters.

4. 28 CFR 600.4—jurisdiction
(a) Original—As given in writing by Attorney
General + appeals + crimes committed in
course of and intended to interfere with
investigation, such as:
perjury,
obstruction of justice,
destruction of evidence, and
intimidation of witnesses

5. 28 CFR 600.4—jurisdiction
(b) Additional jurisdiction—if expansion deemed
necessary to investigate and resolve original
matters, then consult with AG, who decides
whether to add or assign them elsewhere.

6. 28 CFR PART 600
GENERAL POWERS OF THE SPECIAL
COUNSEL

7. 600.1 GROUNDS
FOR APPOINTMENT
AG, or if recused, acting AG, when determines criminal
investigation warranted; and
Investigation/prosecution by DOJ conflict of interest or ”other
extraordinary circumstances”; and
in public interest for outside Special Counsel to assume
responsibility for matter.

8. 600.6 POWERS
& AUTHORITY
 Independence as if a U.S. Attorney
 Special Counsel generally decides whether
and to what extent to inform or consult
with Attorney General/DOJ

9. 600.7 CONDUCT
& ACCOUNTABILITY
 Comply with DOJ rules, regs, practices, procedures
 No day-to-day supervision by DOJ; but AG can decide an
action is so inappropriate/unwarranted under established DOJ
practices that it’s not to be pursued
 May be removed only under limited circumstances…

10. 600.7 CONDUCT
& ACCOUNTABILITYREMOVAL
• Only by personal action of Attorney General
• Must inform Special Counsel in writing of specific reason
• “misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of
interest, or for other good cause, including violation of
Departmental policies”

11. 600.8 NOTIFICATION
& REPORTS BY S.C.
(b) Notify AG of significant events
(c) At conclusion, provide AG with “confidential report”
explaining prosecution/declination decisions

12. 600.9 NOTIFICATION
& REPORTS BY AG
Notify Chair/Ranking Judiciary Committees House/Senate of
appointment, removal, and—at end—blocked actions

13. VERSUS EXPIRED
INDEPENDENT
COUNSEL LAW
Appointed not by
AG, or acting AG,
but three-judge
panel of U.S. Court
of Appeals for D.C.

14. OTHER
PLAYERS:
USAO
SDNY

15. USAO SDNY
CAMPAIGN FINANCE VIOLATIONS
PRESIDENTIAL INAUGURATION $ IN &
OUT
OTHER REFERRALS FROM MUELLER?
OTHER TRUMP ORGANIZATION
MATTERS?

16. CHRIS CHRISTIE: SDNY IS BIGGER PROBLEM
THAN MUELLER AS
NO LIMIT ON SCOPE

17. OTHER PLAYERS:
NEW YORK STATE
PARDONS
FROM
PRESIDENT
LIKELY
DON’T HELP

18. OTHER PLAYERS:
U.S. HOUSE INTELLIGENCE
AND OTHER COMMITTEES

19. OTHER PLAYERS:
U.S. HOUSE COMMITTEES
Whether “financial or
other interests are
driving decision-making
of the President or
anyone in the
administration”
…”Russians or the Saudis
or anyone else”…
House Intel. Cmte.
Chair Adam Schiff
February 6, 2019

20. OTHER PLAYERS:
U.S. HOUSE COMMITTEES
Whether “financial or
other interests are
driving decision-making
of the President or
anyone in the
administration”
…”Russians or the Saudis
or anyone else”…
House Intel. Cmte.
Chair Adam Schiff
February 6, 2019

21. OTHER PLAYERS:
U.S. HOUSE COMMITTEES
Whether “financial or
other interests are
driving decision-making
of the President or
anyone in the
administration”
…”Russians or the Saudis
or anyone else”…
House Intel. Cmte.
Chair Adam Schiff
February 6, 2019

22. investigation indictments
So far…

23. So far…
Non-sealed indicted or guilty pleas from 34 people and three
companies:
• Six Trump former advisors, including
Campaign Chair and National Security
Advisor
• 26 Russian nationals
• Three Russian companies
• + 2 smaller players (California & London)
Source: VOX—January 25, 2019

24. So far…guilty pleas
Michael Cohen—lying to Congress. Rich Gates—false
statement to Mueller investigators and conspiracy to defraud
the U.S. Michael Flynn—lying to the FBI. Paul Manafort—
conspiracy to defraud the United States, attempted
obstruction of justice. George Papadopoulos—false
statements to FBI. Richard Penedo—identify theft. Alex van
der Zwaan—false statements to FBI.

25. So far…some left for others
Paul Maria Michael
Erickson Butina Cohen (partially)

26. What’s unlikely…
 Indicting the President
 Voluntarily public report
 Matters beyond Russia and
investigation interference
 Charges of “collusion”

27. What’s unlikely…
 Indicting the President
 Voluntarily public report
 Matters beyond Russia and
investigation interference
 Charges of “collusion”
versus
“conspiracy”=agreement to

28. Wrapping up?
DEPARTURES: Scott Meisler—December 2018;
Kyle Freeny & Brandon Van Grack—Oct. 2018;
Ryan Dickey & Brian Richardson –Summer 2018.

29. Wrapping up?
DEPARTURES: Scott Meisler—December 2018;
Kyle Freeny & Brandon Van Grack—Oct. 2018;
Ryan Dickey & Brian Richardson –Summer 2018.
BUT January 2019 grand jury six-month extension
and January 2019 Roger Stone indictment w/
“complex” designation so no 70-day speedy trial
limit

30. Wrapping up?
SENATE INTEL CHAIR RICHARD BURR – FEB.
2019:
no evidence of Trump-Russian collusion seen so
far
WHAT DOES MUELLER KNOW THAT NOT YET
SAID?
HIGHER LEVEL TARGET(S) THAT LED
MUELLER TO

31. A
N
D
T
H
E
N
Indictments, Pleas,
Trials &Verdicts

32. A
N
D
T
H
E
N
Indictments, Pleas,
Trials & Verdicts
Flips

33. A
N
D
T
H
E
N
Indictments, Pleas,
Trials & Verdicts
Flips Report to AG

34. [LIKELY] ATTORNEY GENERAL W. BARR

35. [LIKELY] ATTORNEY GENERAL W. BARR
Voluntary Release by AG
Redacted? If so, how much?
House Subpoena of Report
House Subpoena of Mueller
Gleaned from indictments

36. FUNDAMENTAL ASSUMPTION:
CONGRESS GETS THE REPORT

37. LONG & WINDING ROAD
o House majority to impeach
o 2/3rds in Senate to convict
o Two presidents impeached
o One president resigned
o Zero presidents convicted

38. LONG & WINDING ROAD
o House majority to impeach
o 2/3rds in Senate to convict
o Two presidents impeached
o One president resigned
o Zero presidents convicted

39. LONG & WINDING ROAD
o House majority to impeach
o 2/3rds in Senate to convict
o Two presidents impeached
o One president resigned
o Zero presidents convicted

40. STATISTICALLY SPEAKING
source of chart: AustralianPolitics.com
VASTLY MORE LIKELY
TO DIE IN OFFICE
THAN TO BE
REMOVED BY
CONGRESS
-------------
FAR MORE LIKELY TO
RESIGN THAN TO
BE REMOVED
BY CONGRESS

41. STATISTICALLY SPEAKING

42. WHAT IT TAKES TO BEAT THE ODDS
Bipartisan agreement President needs to go

43. WHAT IT TAKES TO BEAT THE ODDS
Bipartisan agreement President needs to go Public support for departure (popularity < 30%)

44. WHAT IT TAKES TO BEAT THE ODDS
Bipartisan agreement President needs
to go
Public support for departure
(popularity < 30%)
Charges correlated to presidential
obligations

45. WHAT IT TAKES TO BEAT THE ODDS
Bipartisan agreement President
needs to go
Public support for departure
(popularity < 30%)
Charges correlated to
presidential obligations
Not simply potential awareness
of others’ wrongdoing

46. NIXON AND CLINTON ARTICLES
SUBJECT NIXON CLINTON
False/misleading statements or perjury ✅ ✅
Attempting to misuse the CIA; misusing FBI and Secret Service ✅
Violating constitutional rights of citizens ✅
Encouraging false testimony ✅ ✅
Failed to faithfully execute the law ✅
Corrupting/manipulating judicial process ✅
Willfully disobeyed subpoenas ✅
Insinuating false testimony will result in favors [e.g. pardons] ✅
Providing a job to sway a witness ✅
Outcome difference rooted in how closely tied to systemic threat? election
sexual
misconduct

47. SYSTEMIC OR MERELY BAD ACTS?
POTENTIAL ALLEGATIONS THAT MIGHT BE RAISED AGAINST BAD ACTS? SYSTEMIC?
Payment of hush money during campaign to hide affairs
Misled voters about whether pursuing Trump Tower for Moscow
Fired James Comey in attempt to end Russia investigation
Forced Jeff Sessions out for role in Russia investigation proceeding
Sought to get NSA/DNI deny Russian election interference
Sought to intimidate Michael Cohen out of testifying
Encouraged false testimony to Congress
Failed to protect/defend (from election interference); or assistance to
enemies like Putin; opposition to allies such as NATO
Emolument Clause violations

48. IMPEACHMENT, RESIGNATION, OR NADA
?
?
?
?
1. TRUMP COOPERATED WITH RUSSIA INTERFERING IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
2. TRUMP ENCOURAGED RUSSIA TO ILLEGALLY INTERFERE IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
3. TRUMP ENCOURAGED SOMEONE CLOSE TO HIM TO WORK WITH RUSSIA ON INTEREFERENCE
4. TRUMP KNEW OF SOMEONE CLOSE TO HIM WORKING WITH RUSSIA ON INTERFERENCE
5. TRUMP REMAINED OUT OF THE LOOP BUT OBSTRUCTED THE INVESTIGATION
6. TRUMP OUT OF THE LOOP AND STUBBORNLY OPPOSED BUT DID NOT OBSTRUCT INVESTIGATION
7. TRUMP ORGANIZATION LAUNDERED RUSSIAN MONEY BUT NO ROLE IN ELECTION INTERFERENCE
8. TRUMP VIOLATED CAMPAIGN FINANCE LAW BUT NO ROLE IN RUSSIAN ELECTION INTERFERENCE
9. TRUMP MERELY EMBARASSED ABOUT RUSSIAN BUSINESS FINANCING, SO HID IT FROM VOTERS
10. UNRELATED TO RUSSIA ISSUES, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST AS TO FOREIGN POLICY AND BUSINESSES

49. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY
Reach election
day 2020 with a
House vote in favor of
impeachment but
Senate has not yet
voted whether to
convict

50. ACCELERANTS
FAMILY INDICTED
PARDONS ISSUED*
INTERCEPTS
KOMPROMAT
*AG BARR

51. PARTING THOUGHTS
“A man is not finished when he
is defeated. He is finished when
he quits.”
Richard M. Nixon