Presentation by Tony McAlister, WaterTech, at the Delft3D User Days - Australian Time zone: Inland to Estuary, during Delft Software Days - Edition 2020. Tuesday, 10 November 2020.

1. R a i n W a t c h
Real Time Hydrologic, Hydraulic and
Water Quality Forecasting in the Bowen
Basin
10 November 2020
TonyMcAlister
R a i n W a t c h

2. R a i n W a t c h
Presentation Overview
• Water Technology, in partnership with Deltares, HydroLogic and FlowMatters, have
developed a real time hydrologic, hydraulic and water quality forecasting and web delivery
system for the Isaac River catchment
• This system has used Delft-FEWS to couple several advanced numerical analysis products, in
many cases for the first time - and definitely for the first time with all of them
• Calibrated radar rainfall (HydroNET)
• Distributed hydrologic modelling (wflow)
• Comprehensive hydraulic modelling (SOBEK)
• Comprehensive water quality modelling (DELWAQ)
• Operational optimisation routines (RTC-Tools 2)
• Localised water balance models (EPA SWMM)
• Importantly – these models are all operating within a bespoke Delft-FEWS environment

3. R a i n W a t c hR a i n W a t c h
DELFT-FEWS Environment
EPA-SWMM
FlowMatters
Web Viewer

4. R a i n W a t c h
HydroNET Radar Calibrated Rainfall
• Coupled QPE and QPF System developed in HydroNET
• QPE – Historical data
• QPF – Nowcast and ADFD numerical weather modelling

5. R a i n W a t c h
HydroNET Radar Calibrated Rainfall
• QPE – From raw to gauge blended radar rainfall
• 3 step process
1. Measurement of reflectivity and removal of known sources of errors
• Speckle and clutter (e.g. wind mills, towers, mountains)
• Radial effects (blockage)
• Other spurious effects
2.Conversion of Reflectivity to Rainfall
• Various methods, which differ between regions and cloud types
• BoM provides this out to 128km
3.Calibration with Rain Gauge Networks
• Rain gauge data quality control and gap definition
• WMO compliant (installation & maintenance)
• No multi-day sums; No large gaps; No wrong zero measurements (hidden gaps)
• Radar data adjustment to rain gauge data

6. R a i n W a t c h

7. R a i n W a t c hR a i n W a t c h
Rainfall – 20 May 10 minute Intervals

8. R a i n W a t c h
QPF - Blending Nowcast and ADFD
• Derive a single forecast consisting of radar nowcast in the first two hours and ADFD
data for longer forecast horizons
• ADFD data is mapped on radar grid
• Benefit of increased accuracy of radar nowcast for first hours
• Extended forecast horizon of ADFD

9. R a i n W a t c hR a i n W a t c h
Nowcast Method
Extrapolating the measurements based on image processing / cell detection
Basic concept:
- 12 min
- 6 min
now + 6 min
+ 12 min
+ 18 min
Precipitation cell
Measurement Forecast-size
- mass
- centre of gravity
- axes of inertia
- angle of axes
- class distribution
- position
- Linear movement
- Dynamics
Calculate motion vectors of tracked cells
Interpolate motion vector field for
entire domain with IDW
Calculate rotation and divergence
-> interpolate for entire domain
-> Integration to get motion vector field

10. R a i n W a t c hR a i n W a t c h
Process Flows
Delft-
FEWS

11. R a i n W a t c h
wflow Hydrologic Modelling

12. R a i n W a t c h
wflow Hydrologic Modelling
• Open Source Hydrological Modelling Platform
• Accounts for;
• Precipitation – Radar Rainfall
• Interception
• Evapotranspiration
• Soil Water
• Surface Water
• Ground Water Recharge

13. R a i n W a t c h
wflow Hydrologic Modelling
• Successfully Applied Worldwide
• Flood Hazard
• Drought
• Climate Change Impacts
• Land Use Changes
• Flood Warning Systems within the Delft-FEWS Framework – Flow Forecasting
• Maximises use of open earth observation data – suited for data scarce environments
• Built from gridded dataset, allowing calculations at any given location
• Transparent model structure – based off the Python language

14. R a i n W a t c h
wflow Hydrologic Modelling
• Static Data
• Digital Elevation Model
• Land Cover Map/Map Representing Soil Physical Parameters
• Dynamic Data (Time Series)
• Precipitation
• Potential Evapotranspiration
• Model Parameters
• Soil Depth…etc…Many more!

15. R a i n W a t c hR a i n W a t c h
Modelled
Catchment
Isaac River Catchment –
Approx. 8,300 km2

16. R a i n W a t c h
wflow Hydrologic Modelling
• Model calibrated to March 2017 rainfall event - TC Debbie
• Verification periods: 2016 and 2019

17. R a i n W a t c hR a i n W a t c h
wflow Hydrologic Modelling

18. R a i n W a t c hR a i n W a t c h
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
24/03/2017 0:00 26/03/2017 0:00 28/03/2017 0:00 30/03/2017 0:00 1/04/2017 0:00 3/04/2017 0:00 5/04/2017 0:00
Discharge(m3/s)
Date
2017 Discharge Comparison at Fischer Creek
Gauge
Model
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
24/03/2017 0:00 26/03/2017 0:00 28/03/2017 0:00 30/03/2017 0:00 1/04/2017 0:00 3/04/2017 0:00 5/04/2017 0:00
Discharge(m3/s)
Date
2017 Discharge Comparison at Lower Platypus Creek
Gauge
Model
wflow Hydrologic Modelling

19. R a i n W a t c h
Hydraulic and Water Quality Modelling

20. R a i n W a t c h
Hydraulic/Water Quality Modelling
Model extent
Stream network
Model network
• The stream network includes the
main channel of the Isaac River
and 10 tributaries and covers
some 470 km.

21. R a i n W a t c h
Hydraulic/Water Quality Modelling
WQ Conditions
at MP
HD Conditions
at MP
Outflow

22. R a i n W a t c h
Hydraulic/Water Quality Modelling
• River network:
• 31 XS at Monitoring Points
• 21 additional XS extracted
• Geometry of structures
• Operation rules
Model extent
Stream network
Model network

23. R a i n W a t c h
Hydraulic/Water Quality Modelling
A
B
C
D
A.
B.
C.
D.
• Simulation TC Debbie
• Ongoing work on improving lower catchment wflow
• Possible overbank flow and/or malfunction of gauge

24. R a i n W a t c h
Hydraulic/Water Quality Modelling
• WQ parameters simulated: Electrical Conductivity (EC) and pH
• EC: Conservative tracer
• pH: 6 possible formulations
• pH_tracer = Conservative tracer [H+] above/below neutral
• pH_1 to pH_5 = adding processes and dependencies with other parameters
Example of pH simulation at a given Monitoring Point
1
The more processes involved,
the more data required for the simulation
2
We are limited by the quantity and quality
of the data available

25. R a i n W a t c h
Delft-FEWS Environment
• As highlighted earlier, this project relies on a bespoke Delft-FEWS application which
as the following key tasks
• Ingest and format all forcing data required to run the models
• Error check this data and if required insert ‘substitutes’
• Ingest field data required to guide and inform the modelling
• Run models as required
• Undertake system optimisations and forecast simulations
• Error check model outputs
• Present model results in a logical and easy to interpret manner
• Project very much ‘sets the scene’ for the optimal and efficient management of
water resources and water quality within the Isaac River system

26. R a i n W a t c hR a i n W a t c h