1.
Bridging Policy Gaps through Software
and Modelling
Dr. Sutat Weesakul
Director of Hydro – Informatics Institute (Public Organization)
Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation
Deltares Software Days South-East Asia 2019, 27th November 2019, Bangkok

2.
2 | Bridging Policy Gaps through Software and Modelling
Contents
1
2
3
Principles on Water Governance
Examples of Modelling for Bridging the Gaps
• Supporting decision making under uncertainty
• Improving communication among stakeholders
• Warning and preparation for crisis readiness
• Reaching information in real-time
Conclusions

3.
Principles on Water Governance

4.
4 | Bridging Policy Gaps through Software and Modelling
Water governance cycle
Actions
Water
governance
Policies and
strategies
formulation
Implementation
Monitoring
Evaluation
Principles
Indicators
Bridging gap
New instruments
or improvements
Assessing gaps
Source: OECD (2015), OECD Principles on Water Governance

5.
5 | Bridging Policy Gaps through Software and Modelling
Multi-level governance gaps in water policy
Policy
gap
Accountability
gap
Funding
gap
Capacity
gap
Information
gap
Administrative
gap
Objective
gap
Governance
gaps
• Policy gap - Sectoral fragmentation of water-related tasks across
ministries and agencies.
• Accountability gap - Insufficient users commitment and lack of
concern, awareness, participation.
• Funding gap - Unstable or insufficient funding is undermining the
water policy implementation.
• Capacity gap - Insufficient scientific, technical, infrastructural
capacity of actors.
• Information gap - Asymmetries of information between
different stakeholders involved in water policy.
• Administrative gap - Geographical mismatch between
hydrological and administrative boundaries.
• Objective gap - Different rationales creating obstacles for
adopting convergent targets.
Source: OECD (2011), Water Governance in OECD: A Multi-Level Approach

6.
Modelling for Policy Gaps Bridging

7.
7 | Bridging Policy Gaps through Software and Modelling
Adaptive flood risk
management plan for
Sukhothai Province
Supporting decision making under uncertainty

8.
8 | Bridging Policy Gaps through Software and Modelling
Causes of the flood in Sukhothai
▪ Topography and land use changes.
▪ High intensity of rainfall.
▪ Quick runoff and high peak
discharge from upstream.
▪ River capacity reduction.
Sukhothai
Phrae
Phitsanulok
Phichit
Capacity of Yom River Average annual rainfall of Yom River
Yom River Basin
Avg. Annual Rainfall 1,204 mm.
Avg. Annual Discharge 4,143 MCM.
Sukhothai Province
Avg. Annual Rainfall 1,196 mm.
Avg. Annual Discharge 2,946 MCM.
Kaeng Sua Ten Dam
Storage: 1,175 MCM.
Annual inflow: 978 MCM.
Storage : Inflow = 1 : 0.8
Upper Yom Dam
Storage: 166 MCM.
Annual inflow: 911 MCM.
Storage : Inflow = 1 : 5.5
Yom Dam
Storage: 588 MCM.
Annual inflow: 1,382 MCM.
Storage : Inflow = 1 : 2.4
Sukhothai
Phrae

9.
9 | Bridging Policy Gaps through Software and Modelling
Adaptation pathway for flood risk management
Example of planed decision
Local and regional actions
▪ Reduction of flood vulnerability of
land use.
▪ Raising embankments Sukhothai.
Upstream actions
▪ Large upstream reservoir.
▪ Optimized operation.
Stepwise development of strategies
▪ Early implementation measures (e.g.
bypass around Sukhothai, flood
retardation)
▪ No regret measures (e.g. reduction of
flood vulnerability of land use)
▪ Easily adaptable measures (e.g. diversion
of peak flows, increase discharge capacity
through dredging)
▪ Reservoir measures (e.g. build medium or
large reservoir, optimized operation)
▪ Regional measures (e.g. raising
embankments)
(%)

10.
10 | Bridging Policy Gaps through Software and Modelling
Development of Delft3D FM
flood model for Ayutthaya
City
Improving communication between stakeholders

11.
11 | Bridging Policy Gaps through Software and Modelling
The great flood in 2011
▪ The widespread flooding in the Chao
Phraya River Basin.
▪ Ayutthaya City suffered from serious
damages with almost all area were
under water for months.
Ayutthaya City Ayutthaya City

12.
12 | Bridging Policy Gaps through Software and Modelling
Delft3D FM model outcome
❑ Provide understanding of the event
and verify the effectiveness of
possible measures in an easy way.
❑ Improve communication among
professionals, decision makers and
various stakeholders.

13.
13 | Bridging Policy Gaps through Software and Modelling
Operational forecasting
and early warning system
for the Gulf of Thailand
Warning and preparation for crisis readiness

14.
14 | Bridging Policy Gaps through Software and Modelling
Ocean forecasting system
▪ Hydrodynamic Model (Delft3D FM)
▪ Wave Model (SWAN)
▪ Weather Prediction Model (WRF-ROMS)
▪ Early Warning System (Delft-FEWS)
Early Warning System based on Delft-FEWS

15.
15 | Bridging Policy Gaps through Software and Modelling
▪ 31 Dec 2018 - A disturbance in the southern of the South
China Sea was upgraded to a tropical depression.
▪ 1 Jan 2019 - It was upgraded to the first tropical storm of
the 2019 and was named Pabuk.
▪ 2-3 Jan 2019 - Pabuk accelerated west-northwestward
and entered the Gulf of Thailand.
▪ 4 Jan 2019 - Pabuk had made landfall over Pak Phanang,
Nakhon Si Thammarat.
▪ 5 Jan 2019 - Pabuk had weaken and moved westward to
Andaman Sea.
Tropical Storm Pabuk
31/12/18
1/1/192/1/193/1/19
4/1/19
5/1/19
Legends
TD
TS

16.
16 | Bridging Policy Gaps through Software and Modelling
Water level forecast in the Gulf of Thailand
Pak Phanang,
Nakhon Si Thammarat
03/Jan/19
Pak Phanang,
Nakhon Si
Thammarat
Forecast date: 4 Jan 2019
Reanalysis date: 30 Jan 2019

17.
17 | Bridging Policy Gaps through Software and Modelling
Water level forecast in the Gulf of Thailand
KoLak station
Pak Phanang station
Rayong station
Ko Samui Station
Forecast 3 days ahead, Computation time: 2.5 hrs.
Forecast 7 days ahead, Computation time: 6 hrs.

18.
18 | Bridging Policy Gaps through Software and Modelling
Comparison of observed and forecasted water level on 5th Jan 2019
Highest observed water level
Highest forecasted water level
Ko Lak station
Actual water level
Pak Phanang station
Rayong station
Ko Samui station
Actual water level
Actual water level
Actual water level

19.
19 | Bridging Policy Gaps through Software and Modelling
4 Jan 2019 - Pak Phanang, Nakhon Si Thammarat 5 Jan 2019 - The Upper Gulf of Thailand
Effects of Tropical Storm Pabuk

20.
20 | Bridging Policy Gaps through Software and Modelling
HARRIET (1962) PABUK (2019)
Landfall at Pakpanang, Nakhon Si Thammarat
with wind speed 95 km/hr
Evacuation: None
Losses: 911 casualties
22,296 households destroyed
50,775 households damage
Landfall at Pakpanang, Nakhon Si Thammarat
with wind speed 85 km/hr
Evacuation: 31,665 people were evacuated
Losses: 5 casualties
405 households destroyed
53,008 households damage
HARRIET (1962) vs PABUK (2019)

21.
21 | Bridging Policy Gaps through Software and Modelling
Reaching information in real-time
Rainfall estimation and
nowcasting system using
composite weather radar
data and its application

22.
22 | Bridging Policy Gaps through Software and Modelling
POD FAR CSI
7-Jul-19
F1 0.525 0.456 0.
F2 0.433 0.619 0.
F3 0.400 0.684 0.
URBAN RAINFALL (BANGKOK)
7 June 2019
Rainfall estimation and nowcasting system using composite weather radar data
BKK

23.
23 | Bridging Policy Gaps through Software and Modelling
23rd July 2019 Heavy rainfall event in Bangkok
**BMA reported
highest rainfall
observed in Nongjok
and Klong Samwa
Rainfall estimation and nowcasting system using composite weather radar data

24.
24 | Bridging Policy Gaps through Software and Modelling
COMPOSITE RADAR ON LINE APPLICATION
Rainfall estimation and nowcasting system using composite weather radar data
Composite Radar
Features:
- Push rainfall warnings
- User’s request interaction

25.
25 |
Effectiveness
Clear water policy goals and targets at
different level.
Efficiency
Maximize the benefits of sustainable water
management.
Trust and Engagement
Building public confidence and inclusiveness
of stakeholders.
Adaption pathway
Delft3D FM model
Ocean forecasting
Composite weather radar
Source: OECD (2015), OECD Principles on Water Governance
Conclusions

26.
26 |
Policy
gap
Accountability
gap
Funding
gap
Capacity
gap
Information
gap
Administrative
gap
Objective
gap
Governance
gaps
Adaption pathway
Delft3D FM model
Ocean forecasting
Composite weather radar
Conclusions

27.
27 |
Hydro – Informatics Institute (Public Organization)
Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation, THAILAND
tel +66 2 5180901 fax +66 2 5180910
www.hii.or.th www.thaiwater.net