1.
Practical steps
to improve the public perception of the future
and thereby to improve the future
David Wood – @dw2 – London Futurists
Summit 2020

2.
“Where there is no vision,
the people perish”
(Proverbs 29:18)

3.
“The problem is when people lose hope,
then they start turning nasty”
7th July, H+ Summit, 2020
Anders Sandberg, Senior Research Fellow, FHI, Oxford

4.
What we do today
is strongly influenced
by what we believe
will be possible tomorrow
……….Business-as-usual?
…provided we also believe
…we can do something about it

5.
1. See the set of future scenarios more clearly
2. Assess scenarios more thoughtfully
3. Uncover constructive options
for action
……….Business-as-usual?
The 3 core tasks of foresight

6.
Deeper, faster interconnectivity
Exponentially accelerating technology
Growing imbalances with the environment
Larger social stresses (inequality++)
Greater strength and greater intelligence,
without greater wisdom
N B
I C
More vulnerable to contagions
More waves ahead ➔ More need for foresight

7.
Crunch 2008
Queen Elizabeth II asked LSE economists why no one had predicted the credit crunch
A “feelgood factor”
which “masked
how out-of-kilter
the world
economy had
become beneath
the surface”
Over-trust in “financial wizards” who “managed to convince themselves and the world’s
politicians that they had found clever ways to spread risk throughout financial markets”
A “psychology of
denial” that
“gripped the
financial and
political world”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2009/jul/26/monarchy-credit-crunch
EXAMPLE OF POOR FORESIGHT

8.
Why has foresight been poor – and how to improve it
• Too much linear thinking
• Not enough exponential thinking
• Disruptions may come from accumulated pressure
• And may be catalysed by external shocks or convergence
• Provide plenty of examples of positive feedback cycles
• Go beyond “naive exponential” inevitabilism
• Exponential = sequence of ‘S’ curves
• Raise awareness of brakes as well as accelerators
• Highlight the human and political influences on progress
“the future will extend the past”
“… transcend the past”

9.
Why has foresight been poor – and how to improve it
• Too much linear thinking
• Not enough exponential thinking
• Too much absolutist thinking
• Not enough probabilistic thinking
• Actual outcomes depend on human reactions
• And on numerous “butterfly effects”
• Forecasts are intended to stretch our thinking
• Provide examples of forecasts successfully changing history
• Despite multiple unknowns being involved
“forecasts are right or wrong”
“… are possibilities”

10.
A forecast that changed history
12 September 1962John F Kennedy
We choose to go to the moon.
We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things,
not because they are easy, but because they are hard,
because that goal will serve to organize and measure
the best of our energies and skills,
because that challenge is one that
we are willing to accept,
one we are unwilling to postpone,
and one which we intend to win.
http://er.jsc.nasa.gov/seh/ricetalk.htm

11.
A forecast that can change history
1. An abundance of clean energy (via greentech++)
2. An abundance of healthy food (via synthetic biotech++)
3. An abundance of material goods and shelter (via nanotech++)
4. An abundance of affordable health (via rejuvenation biotech++)
5. An abundance of all-round intelligence (via cognotech++)
6. An abundance of time for creativity (via automation tech++)
7. Ability to explore external & internal space (space tech & VR++)
8. An abundance of collaboration & democracy (via social tech++)
We choose sustainable superabundance, for all,
by 2035
N B
I C

12.
Another forecast that can change history
1. A preponderance of polluting energy (no greentech++)
2. A preponderance of malnutrition (no synthetic biotech++)
3. A preponderance of waste and biohazard (no nanotech++)
4. A preponderance of chronic disease (no rejuvenation biotech++)
5. A preponderance of unwise cleverness (no cognotech++)
6. A preponderance of back-breaking toil (no automation tech++)
7. A preponderance of overcrowding (no space tech or VR++)
8. A preponderance of inequality & tribalism (no social tech++)
A new dark age lies ahead: humanitarian tragedy
N B
I C

13.
BN
I C
Atoms
GenesNeurons
Bits
The 4th Industrial Revolution
Nanotech Biotech
Infotech Cognotech
S
Socialtech
Values

14.
B: Biotech:
Genetic editing
Stem cell therapies
Lab-grown clean meat
Enhanced pets
The abolition of aging
N: Nanotech:
Molecular manufacturing
3D & 4D printing
Nanobots & nanosensors
Next gen Green Energy
Quantum computers
I: Infotech:
Machine learning -> AGI
Artificial creativity
Affective computing (EQ)
Wearable computers
Augmented Reality
C: Cognotech:
Brain Computer Interfaces
Next gen Virtual Reality
Nootropics (smart drugs)
Mind suspension (cryonics)
Consciousness engineering
Planetary tech:
Driverless cars
Drone swarms
Hyperloop
Geo-engineering
Outer space
Socialtech:
Finance
Clouds
Ledgers
Markets
Regulations
Privacy
Security
Education
Politics
AtomsBits
GenesNeurons
Values

15.
Why has foresight been poor – and how to improve it
• Systemic irresponsibility: Too much short-term thinking
• Quarterly business figures, five year election cycles
• Not enough advocacy for the longer term
• Too much self-centred thinking
• Anticipation of catastrophic risk is a “public good”
• Benefits apply to everyone
• Each individual is loathe to bear the cost alone
• Champion the case for selected government action
• But each country is loathe to bear the cost alone…
Need future
advocates at every
level of society
Need
inspired
bridge
building

16.
https://www.history.com/news/gorbachev-reagan-cold-war
Carl Sagan
Open, vivid, credible
communications of
future possibilities

17.
1. See the set of future scenarios more clearly
2. Assess scenarios more thoughtfully
3. Uncover constructive options for action
The 3 core tasks of foresight
Trend awareness Understand the possibilities of science & technology
Understand the possibilities of human nature Imagination, freed from bounds of convention
Consider convergence
Credible, from science & technology viewpoint? Credible, from human & social viewpoint?
Desirable, after setting aside initial “future shock” and “wishful thinking”? Give up to go up?
Objective monitoring
Rapid, agile experimentation Explore risky options in safe emulations and in realistic fiction
Develop roadmap with interim goals en route to larger ambition Celebrate useful small wins
Communicate openly, vividly, credibly
Collaborate

18.
David Wood – @dw2 – London Futurists
Practical steps
to improve the public perception of the future
and thereby to improve the future
Communicate openly, vividly, credibly