The roadmap to abolish aging by 2040

The roadmap to abolish aging by 2040
The roadmap to abolish aging by 2040 Principal, Delta WisdomChair, London Futurists David Wood @dw2 londonfuturists.com deltawisdom.com
@dw2 Page 2longevitycryopreservationsummit.com Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), Madrid, Spain May 25-27
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@dw2 Page 4 Madrid, 25-27 Maylongevitycryopreservationsummit.com
@dw2 Page 5 Future life expectancy in 35 industrialised countries “Projections with a Bayesian model ensemble” http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)32381-9/ 85.25 81.66 87.23 Assumes future trends will be an extension of past trends!? These predictions assume a basic continuation of conventional medicine S. Korea: 90.82 (83.91-98.70) France: 88.55 (84.64-91.28) Japan: 88.41 (84.22-92.60) 90% confidence limits Published: 21 February 2017 74 83
@dw2 Page 6 Technology Capability Time The future arrives in waves Waves start slow (disappointing) Become fast (exciting) Eventually wave loses power Disruption to new wave? Progress usually depends on “insiders” But sometimes on “outsiders” too Positive feedback cycle Rich ecosystem
@dw2 Page 7 Disruption in the last 10 years
@dw2 Page 8 Smartphone Capability Time Feature phones (phase 0) Phase 1 smartphones 1990 2000 2010 Software relatively unimportant Software important Software critical Mini-computers Supercomputers Phase 2 smartphones (superphones) “Software is eating the world” The future arrives in waves “Technology is eating the world”
@dw2 Page 9 “Technology is eating the world” http://www.visualcapitalist.com/chart-largest-companies-market-cap-15-years/ 2001 2006 2011 2016 #1 #2 #3 #4 #5
@dw2 Page 10 2016 • "We’ve gotten into the health arena and we started looking at wellness… that may even make the smartphone market look small” – Tim Cook, Apple CEO – https://www.fastcompany.com/3062090/tim-cooks-apple/playing-the-long- game-inside-tim-cooks-apple • “Microsoft has vowed to ‘solve the problem of cancer’ within a decade by using ground-breaking computer science to crack the code of diseased cells so they can be reprogrammed back to a healthy state” (quoting Chris Bishop, Microsoft Research Cambridge) – http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2016/09/20/microsoft-will-solve- cancer-within-10-years-by-reprogramming-dis/
@dw2 Page 11 New platform capability Disappointment Further Disappointment Again! Old platform no longer competitive Disruptions can take a long time in gestation Even though they may eventually seem to blossom quickly Previous platform New processes, skills & tools critically important New platform hype Poor usability, hard to configure Services & apps missing or inadequate
@dw2 Page 12 2016 • “Priscilla Chan and Mark Zuckerberg [Facebook founder] aim to ‘cure, prevent and manage’ all disease” • “Couple plans to invest $3bn over next decade to help scientists develop and utilise tools such as artificial intelligence and blood monitors to treat illnesses” – https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/sep/21/mark-zuckerberg- priscilla-chan-end-disease • “If you ask me today, is it possible to live to be 500? The answer is yes” – Bill Maris, Managing Partner, Google Ventures – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-09/google-ventures- bill-maris-investing-in-idea-of-living-to-500
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@dw2 Page 14 The roadmap to abolishing aging by 2040 1. The biggest, most powerful companies in the world will put more and more effort behind healthy life extension
@dw2 Page 15 Scientific method Open society 1st Industrial Revolution Steam, mechanisation 1760… 2nd Industrial Revolution Electricity, chemicals, mass production 1880… 3rd Industrial Revolution Computers, electronics 1960… 4th Industrial Revolution ??? convergence 2010… Technological change +120 years +80 years +50 years +35 years 2045… The Technological Singularity
@dw2 Page 16 BN CI NBIC Convergence The 4th Industrial Revolution
@dw2 Page 17 Atoms Genes Bits Neurons Bio- Tech Nano- Tech Cogno- Tech Info- Tech Software Hardware BiologyPhysical New machines New algorithms New minds New life
@dw2 Page 18 Positive feedback cycles Tools Machinery
@dw2 Page 19 Positive feedback cycles Design, Manufacturing Computers
@dw2 Page 20 Positive feedback cycles Software tools (debuggers, compilers…) Software
@dw2 Page 21 AI tools AI Positive feedback cycles
@dw2 Page 22 “Google Researchers Are Teaching Their AI to Build Its Own, More Powerful AI” http://www.sciencealert.com/google-is-improving-its-artificial-intelligence-with-artificial-intelligence AutoML “Google’s New AI Is Better at Creating AI Than the Company’s Engineers” https://futurism.com/googles-new-ai-is-better-at-creating-ai-than-the-companys-engineers/ Positive feedback cycle
@dw2 Page 23 People Technology Education Networks Tools Positive feedback cycle Entrepreneurs Engineers Scientists EducatorsDesigners Artificial Intelligence Deep Learning The acceleration of technology The acceleration of disruption
@dw2 Page 24 The roadmap to abolishing aging by 2040 1. The biggest, most powerful companies in the world will put more and more effort behind healthy life extension 2. The transformational technologies of the fourth industrial revolution (NBIC) will become sufficiently mature 3. Two waves of disruptive new thinking will fundamentally enhance healthcare
@dw2 Page 25 Medical Capability Time “Conventional medicine”
@dw2 Page 26 Eroom’s Law Number of drugs approved per US$B R&D spending, halves every 9 years since 1950 http://pipeline.corante.com/archives/2012/03/08/erooms_law.php See Chapter 6 of The Abolition of Aging Conventional medicine is struggling
@dw2 Page 27 Life expectancy at birth, female (Spain) http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.FE.IN?locations=ES Progress slowing
@dw2 Page 28http://www.grg.org/Gallery/1875Gallery.html#Jeanne_Calment Jeanne Louise Calment, lived to 122 years 164 days: 21 Feb 1875 to 4 Aug 1997 17 100 117 http://www.grg.org/Gallery/1880Gallery.html 117, with (great)3grandson 119 Sarah DeRemer Knauss, lived to 119 years 97 days: 24 Sep 1880 to 30 Dec 1999
@dw2 Page 29https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people Name Sex Birth date Death date Age Place of death or residence 1 Jeanne Calment F 21 February 1875 4 August 1997 122 years, 164 days France 2 Sarah Knauss F 24 September 1880 30 December 1999 119 years, 97 days United States 3 Lucy Hannah F 16 July 1875 21 March 1993 117 years, 248 days United States 4 Marie-Louise Meilleur F 29 August 1880 16 April 1998 117 years, 230 days Canada 5 Emma Morano F 29 November 1899 15 April 2017 117 years, 137 days Italy 6 Violet Brown F 10 March 1900 Living 117 years, 108 days Jamaica 7 Misao Okawa F 5 March 1898 1 April 2015 117 years, 27 days Japan 8 María Capovilla F 14 September 1889 27 August 2006 116 years, 347 days Ecuador 9 Nabi Tajima F 4 August 1900 Living 116 years, 326 days Japan 10 Susannah Mushatt Jones F 6 July 1899 12 May 2016 116 years, 311 days United States 11 Gertrude Weaver F 4 July 1898 6 April 2015 116 years, 276 days United States 12 Tane Ikai F 18 January 1879 12 July 1995 116 years, 175 days Japan 13 Elizabeth Bolden F 15 August 1890 11 December 2006 116 years, 118 days United States 14 Besse Cooper F 26 August 1896 4 December 2012 116 years, 100 days United States No new entrants in top four this century!
@dw2 Page 30 Medical Capability Time Focus on individual diseases Delaying aging Aging relatively unstudied “Conventional medicine” “Rise of geroscience” The study of how aging makes disease more likely
@dw2 Page 31https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4691799/ Aging increases probability and impact of chronic disease
@dw2 Page 32 National Life Tables, United Kingdom, 2012-14 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplep opulationandcommunity/birthsde athsandmarriages/lifeexpectancie s/datasets/nationallifetablesunite dkingdomreferencetables c. 1/1000 at age 35 c. 1/10 at age 85 After the age of around 35, human mortality rate doubles every c. 8 years – Gompertz Law (1825) c. 1/100 at 60 c. 1/10,000 at age 10 Aging -> Senescence -> Mortality Is this a fixed law of all biology? No!
@dw2 Page 33 Lobster Naked mole rat Rougheye rockfish Organisms that don’t age: negligible senescence http://www.programmed-aging.org/negligible_senescence.html Bowhead whale
@dw2 Page 34 1951 1984 negligible senescence https://whyevolutionistrue.wordpress.com/2014/11/09/moar-bears/panda-001/ http://www.slideshare.net/redescma/biologa-y-ecologa-del-alimoche 1992 Professor George Dunnet, Aberdeen University, with “fulmar 57”, Orkney island of Eynhallow (members of the petrel family of birds – “Britain’s version of the albatross”) http://www.birdcare.com/bin/shownews/69
@dw2 Page 35https://medium.com/usfws/wisdom-the-laysan-albatross-7c1259c3b35a A mother, again, at 66 “Wisdom has raised at least 30-35 chicks” 9 Dec 2016 Midway Atoll
@dw2 Page 36https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ming_(clam) This ocean quahog clam, nicknamed “Ming”, lived to the age of 507 (1499-2006) off the coast of Iceland
@dw2 Page 37https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristlecone_pine One Great Basin bristlecone pine in eastern California has been cross-dated at 5,065 years old
@dw2 Page 38http://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.0040119 Centenarian siblings: Helen Reichert, Irving Kahn & siblings: As children and as centenarians Superagers
@dw2 Page 39 Aging & chronic disease: Model 1 Stroke Cancer Heart disease Diabetes Pulmonary disease HIV -> AIDS Parkinson’s Arthritis Alzheimer’s Asthma Kidney disease Aging Each chronic disease has its own trajectory, and needs its own investigation and own treatment Aging is particularly hard, so it should be left to last to address Independence
@dw2 Page 40 Aging & chronic disease: Model 2 Dr. Felipe Sierra, Director of the Division of Aging Biology at the National Institute on Aging, discusses the Trans-NIH GeroScience Interest Group, August 2013 http://youtu.be/xI38YRz1bbQ Stroke Cancer Heart disease Diabetes Pulmonary disease HIV -> AIDS Parkinson’s Menopause Arthritis Alzheimer’s Asthma Kidney disease AGING Causation
@dw2 Page 41 Aging & chronic disease: Model 2 Dr. Felipe Sierra, Director of the Division of Aging Biology at the National Institute on Aging, discusses the Trans-NIH GeroScience Interest Group, August 2013 http://youtu.be/xI38YRz1bbQ Stroke Cancer Heart disease Diabetes Pulmonary disease HIV -> AIDS Parkinson’s Menopause Arthritis Alzheimer’s Asthma Kidney disease AGING ProteostasisAdaptation to stress Regeneration from stem cells Inflammation Macromolecular damage Metabolism Epigenetics and regulatory RNA
Damage type Cell loss, cell atrophy Division-obsessed cells Death-resistant cells Mitochondrial mutations Intracellular junk Extracellular junk Extracellular matrix stiffening
Damage type The maintenance approach Cell loss, cell atrophy Cell therapy, mainly Division-obsessed cells Death-resistant cells Suicide genes, immune stimulation Mitochondrial mutations Allotopic expression of 13 proteins Intracellular junk Transgenic microbial hydrolases Extracellular junk Phagocytosis by immune stimulation Extracellular matrix stiffening AGE-breaking molecules/enzymes Telomerase/ALT gene deletion plus periodic stem cell reseeding
@dw2 Page 44 Medical Capability Time Focus on individual diseases Delaying aging 1980 Aging relatively unstudied Lifestyle changes Drugs Genetics Positive feedback cycle “Conventional medicine” “Rise of geroscience” Michael R. Rose University of California, Irvine Average fruit fly lifespan x4 Cynthia Kenyon University of California, San Francisco C. Elegans worm single gene… x10 Nir Barzilai Albert Einstein Medicine, NY Metformin, 15% mortality decrease? “TAME” Targeting/Taming Aging with MEtformin $70M: 3000 people aged 65-80 E.g. intermittent calorie restriction
@dw2 Page 45https://soundcloud.com/a16z/science-of-life-extension Kristen Fortney CEO, BioAge Labs The number of drugs that have been tested by the National Cancer Institute on mice to try to cure mouse cancer: Over 110,000 The number of drugs that have been tested by the National Institute of Aging on mice to try to address mouse aging: 30 One of the 30 was a success: Rapamycin Mice fed Rapamycin at middle age lived 30% longer
@dw2 Page 46 Medical Capability Time Focus on individual diseases Delaying aging 1980 Aging relatively unstudied Lifestyle changes Drugs Genetics Damage removal 2010 The Abolition of Aging (reversal of aging) Nanotech 3D printing AI+Deep Learning Stem cell therapy 2040 Rejuveneering (accelerating) Positive feedback cycle Positive feedback cycle “Conventional medicine” “Rise of geroscience” Gene engineering Technology++ Philosophy++ Politics++
@dw2 Page 47 Timescales for rejuvenation biotech 2030s 2020s 2010s 2000s 1990s 1980s c. 1,000,000 people c. 100,000 people c. 10,000 people c. 1,000 people c. 100 people About 10 people working seriously on rejuveneering 2040 Affordable, comprehensive, reliable therapies in wide use Probability of success ≈ 50% Provided society prioritises it Athletic, healthy 120 yo’s “120 is the new 80” … Cosmetics, military, sports, food, pharma, IT industries…+ citizen scientists
@dw2 Page 48 The acceleration of rejuvenation biotech People, networked Solution building blocks Higher levels of education Wikis, MOOCs, open source Tools & techniques Positive feedback cycleTechnological methods Collaboration methods Cosmetics, military, sports, food, pharma, IT industries… AI & Big Data + citizen scientists Motivated people! Rejuvenation Therapies
@dw2 Page 49 The motivation for rejuvenation biotech 1. Longevity Dividend: “A stitch in time saves nine” – Healthy people are net positive contributors to society – Investing in rejuvenation biotech will avoid spiralling costs of chronic diseases and end-of-life care – Social benefits have been estimated in US (1970-2000) as $95 trillion from $34 trillion spending on medical assets 2. Life is good! Health is good! – “Everyone has the right to life, liberty and security of person” – Universal Declaration of Human Rights 3. Each death is a tragedy – Loss of knowledge (a library burns down) – Irretrievable loss of human potential (Loving life rather than fearing death) See Chapter 9 of The Abolition of Aging Economics Kevin Murphy & Robert Topel
@dw2 Page 50 Paradigm shift Thomas Kuhn – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradigm_shift Duck? Rabbit? Accepting Aging, Deterioration, Death Anticipating Rejuvenation, Vitality, Life
@dw2 Page 51 Paradigm shift Duck? Rabbit? (Original source unknown)
@dw2 Page 52 Paradigm shift: cause of childbed fever Alternative science (?) Diseases caused by “bad air” Diseases caused by germs, spread by poor hygiene Medical authority https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puerperal_infections Need ventillation! Need good handwashing!
@dw2 Page 53 Exodus 21:20-21 “Anyone who beats their male or female slave with a rod must be punished if the slave dies as a direct result, but they are not to be punished if the slave recovers after a day or two, since the slave is their property.” http://www.reunionblackfamily.com/ apps/blog/show/7183511-biblical- verses-used-by-slave-masters-to- justify-slavery The “accepting slavery” paradigm
@dw2 Page 54 Rejuvenation from younger cells http://www.nature.com/news/ageing-research-blood-to-blood-1.16762 “Parabiosis” Perhaps the most promising line of enquiry to treat neurodegeneration See TED talk by Tony Wyss-Coray Muscles Liver Pancreas Heart Brain
@dw2 Page 55 https://singularityhub.com/2017/05/07/drug-discovery- ai-can-do-in-a-day-what-currently-takes-months/
@dw2 Page 56 UT-Heart 170,000 tetrahedrons Super Computational Life Science dept University of Tokyo (UT) Model includes: • Arteries, veins, and valves, as well as the main chambers of the heart • Variations of thickness of the heart wall and inner structures • Electrical activity throughout the heart • Detailed blood flow and local energy consumption http://www.popsci.com/3d-heart-simulation- predicts-how-drugs-will-affect-your-heartbeat Successfully forecast degrees of cardiotoxicity of 12 separate drugs
@dw2 Page 57http://www.genome.gov/sequencingcosts/ $100M in 2001 $10M in 2007 Halving each 2 yrs (Sanger sequencing methods)
@dw2 Page 58http://www.genome.gov/sequencingcosts/ $100M in 2001 $10k in 2011 $10M in 2007 Halving each 2 yrs (Sanger sequencing methods) Halving each 5 months! (“next gen methods”) $1k in 2016 The acceleration of acceleration $100 in 2018
@dw2 Page 59 http://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/diagnostics/software-helps-gene-editing-tool- crispr-live-up-to-its-hype Illustration: Emily Cooper “Software Helps Gene Editing Tool CRISPR Live Up to Its Hype” “New algorithms make CRISPR as easy as point- and-click”
@dw2 Page 60 Vision 2025 Software updates are available for your genome Yes Do you want to download and install them? Update notification No More details… Slide adapted from Liz Parrish, CEO BioViva https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdEyd1CZYvo (London Futurists YouTube channel)
@dw2 Page 61 Existing operating system • Pre-installed at your birth • Provider: 4B years evolution – Darwinian natural selection – “The Blind Watchmaker” – “Red in tooth and claw” • Much to marvel in it • Full of kludges • Many fatal defects Updated operating system • Available for viral installation • Provider: Intelligent Design – previously provided: The Wheel – The Printing Press – Steam Engine, Powered Flight – Electronics, Computers, Networks – Vaccinations, Antibiotics • Numerous enhancements… More details…
@dw2 Page 62 2050 ?! 2025 http://dw2blog.com/2014/04/16/the-future-of-healthy-longevity-life-extension/
@dw2 Page 63 The roadmap to abolishing aging by 2040 1. The biggest, most powerful companies in the world will put more and more effort behind healthy life extension 2. The transformational technologies of the fourth industrial revolution (NBIC) will become sufficiently mature 3. Two waves of disruptive new thinking will fundamentally enhance healthcare – Aging as the treatable root cause of disease – The damage which constitutes aging can be undone regularly 4. The public mood will demand positive action for the abolition of aging 5. One million rejuveneers will collaborate productively
@dw2 Page 64 Obstacles to abolishing aging by 2040 1. Social breakdown – bad politics, science disregarded, environmental disaster, economic collapse, dark ages 2. The technical problems turn out to be harder than expected (e.g. too hard to repair cellular damage) – But the real cause in this case would be lack of sufficient research effort productively applied 3. The public decides it prefers “accepting aging” – Dislikes hype, failed promises, risks of social inequity, etc 4. No positive collaboration – too much infighting, potential allies deterred; people decide to work on other projects 5. Noisy chaos drives out productive signal: poor filtering of quality research obscures high calibre investigations Philosophy++ Politics++ Tech++ Tools++
@dw2 Page 65 Social breakdown Technical problems Accepting aging Too much infighting Poor filteringNBIC tech Mega IT companies Disruptive new thinking (x2) Public mood change 1M+ rejuveneers ? 50%
@dw2 Page 66 For further analysis http://TheAbolitionOfAging.com/ “The ultimate handbook of arguments on behalf of the arresting, reversal and even termination of aging… “Wood fights ‘mortalists’ as Aquinas fought infidels” Humanity+ vision Probability 50%?
@dw2 Page 67 Sunday 9th July, 8pm-10pm TEMPLE talks | Aubrey de Grey How to Defeat Aging
@dw2 Page 68 DISCORD Healthspan | Longevity
@dw2 Page 69http://raadfest.com
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