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What does the future hold? With TZM and #LonFut

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What does the future hold? With TZM and #LonFut

  1. 1. 1 #LonFut – London Futurists What does the future hold? David Wood, Catalyst & Futurist, Delta Wisdom, @dw2 http://dw2blog.com/ London Futurists, www.meetup.com/London-Futurists Slideshare.NET / DeltaWisdom : DW_LFandTZM_Future
  2. 2. 2 #LonFut – London Futurists Four overlapping trajectories 2010 2020 Humanity+ Humanity 1.0 http://humanityplus.org/
  3. 3. 3 #LonFut – London Futurists First Nokia “mobile phone” Nokia Mobira Senator (1982) Weighed about 21 pounds Designed for use in cars 1980s McKinsey forecast for AT&T 0.9 million mobile US subscribers by 2000 Actual figure: 109 million Worldwide 1 billion by 2002, 2B by 2005, 7B by 2012... Hard to predict the effects of sustained tech growth! Devices increasingly numerous, lighter, and more useful www.xtimeline.com/evt/view.aspx?id=25921 www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/22/AR2008022202283_2.html Trajectory 1: Technology
  4. 4. 1993 http://i.imgur.com/nuUGHaY.jpg
  5. 5. 1993 2013 http://i.imgur.com/nuUGHaY.jpg
  6. 6. 6 #LonFut – London Futurists Improvement in energy efficiency of computers: Computations per kWh, 1950-2010 Source: Jonathan Koomey, Consulting Professor, Stanford Technology Review, 9 Apr 2012 10^3 to 10^15 40 doublings over 60 years http://www.technologyreview.com/news/427444/the-computing-trend-that-will-change-everything/ 18 months average doubling In line with “Moore’s Law”
  7. 7. 7 #LonFut – London Futurists (Gordon) Moore’s Law: 1965 www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/events/moores_law_40th/
  8. 8. 8 #LonFut – London Futurists The next five years (2013-2018)? 18 months 18 months 18 months +6 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 21/3 Computing technology x 10 Faster… Cheaper… Smaller…
  9. 9. 9 #LonFut – London Futurists Trajectory 1: Technology “Books will soon be obsolete in schools” “It is possible to teach every branch of human knowledge with the motion picture” “Our school system will be completely changed inside of ten years” July 1913, The New York Dramatic Mirror Thomas Alva Edison http://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/02/15/books-obsolete/ http://edison.rutgers.edu/taephren.htm
  10. 10. 10 #LonFut – London Futurists Trajectory 1: Technology “Our school system will be completely changed inside of ten years” Book: The One World Schoolhouse: Education Reimagined by Salman Khan • First YouTube video uploaded: 2006 • Year founded: 2008 • Videos: ~4070 • Videos watched: 250M+ • Unique visitors in March 2013: 5.3M • Exercises completed: 1B+ (>2M per day) • Number of employees: 38 A not-for-profit with the goal of… providing a free world-class education for anyone anywhere https://www.khanacademy.org/about
  11. 11. 11 #LonFut – London Futurists Progress by combination • Technologies enabling You Tube explosion – Proliferation of Internet users – Fast Internet access – Ubiquitous cameras (including in smartphones) – Cheap storage and fast processing Michell Zappa: http://envisioningtech.com/ • Over 1 billion unique users visit YouTube each month • Over 4 billion hours of video watched each month • People watch one billion views a day on YouTube mobile • 72 hours of video are uploaded to YouTube every minute • In 2011, YouTube had more than 1 trillion views – or around 140 views for every person on Earth www.youtube.com/t/press_statistics
  12. 12. 12 #LonFut – London Futurists When technology creates impact http://joyreactor.com/post/300138 Bill Gates introduces Tablet PC. No one cares. Steve Jobs introduces the iPad. The world pisses itself like an excited dog. Steve Ballmer introduces Surface. People accuse them of stealing the idea from Apple.
  13. 13. 13 #LonFut – London Futurists Predicting iPad convergence(?) 27 January, 2010 “8 Things That Suck About the iPad” http://gizmodo.com/5458382/8-things- that-suck-about-the-ipad 1. Big, Ugly Bezel 2. No Multitasking 3. No Cameras 4. Touch Keyboard 5. No HDMI Out 6. The Name “iPad” 7. No Flash 8. Adapters, Adapters, Adapters (“…You need an adapter for USB for god’s sake”) 9. It’s Not Widescreen 10. Doesn’t Support T-Mobile 3G (“it uses microSIMs that literally no one else uses”) 11. A Closed App Ecosystem. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/iPad http://dw2blog.com/2010/01/28/the-ipad-more-for-less/
  14. 14. 14 #LonFut – London Futurists Cherishing iPad convergence Apple Now Most Valuable Company in History 23 October, 2012 “Apple sold their 100 millionth iPad two weeks ago” “We sold more iPads in the June quarter than any PC maker sold of their entire line-up” Market-cap > $620 billion >4 years to sell 100M iPhones <3 years to sell 100M iPads www.engadget.com/2012/10/23/apple-ipad-mini-liveblog/ www.forbes.com/sites/benzingainsights/2012/08/21/apple-now-most-valuable-company-in-history/
  15. 15. 15 #LonFut – London Futurists When technology creates impact Laggards, sceptics Customers want technology and features Customers want complete solutions, reliability, and convenience Early adopters, visionariesInnovators, technology enthusiasts THECHASM Early majority Late majority Can accept poor usability Won’t accept poor usability Ready to walk a solitary path Require social validation Geoffrey Moore: Crossing the Chasm Everett Rogers: The Diffusion of Innovations
  16. 16. 16 #LonFut – London Futurists Unexpected leadership Purchased by Facebook in April 2012 With 13 employees And 100 million registered users For approx $1 billion in cash and stock Launched in October 2010 Sociable Usable
  17. 17. 17 #LonFut – London Futurists When technology creates impact • Affordable – no barrier to purchase • Usable – no barrier to understanding • Reliable – no frustrations from crashes / failures • Fashionable (within the right peer group) • Utility – delivers true value • Pain of adoption << Benefits of continued usage • Don’t just think technology – think applications • Don’t just think platform – think ecosystem • It can take a long time for a supportive ecosystem to emerge
  18. 18. 18 #LonFut – London Futurists Kindle books vs. physical books www.theverge.com/2012/9/6/3298533/amazon-kindle-event-september-6th-video-watch E-books leapfrog physical books at Amazon 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
  19. 19. 19 #LonFut – London Futurists Progress by combination • Technologies enabling Kindle explosion – Cheap storage – Low energy screens – High-speed “Whisper net” wireless distribution – Huge catalog of books available to purchase Michell Zappa: http://envisioningtech.com/ + Innovative business model
  20. 20. 22 #LonFut – London Futurists Information in our glasses www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/06/sergey-brin-google-glasses_n_1408488.html
  21. 21. 23 #LonFut – London Futurists Smart belt improves your posture http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324235104578241801065110288.html “We watch your back” “The LUMOback sensor sends gentle vibrations when you slouch backwards with your lower back, reminding you to sit or stand up straight” “Using the latest BT technology, LUMOback tracks your movements wirelessly and gives you feedback through an iPhone, iPod, or iPad app”
  22. 22. 24 #LonFut – London Futurists Smart fork vibrates if you eat too quickly http://www.hapilabs.com/products-hapifork.asp
  23. 23. 25 #LonFut – London Futurists “Basis” health-monitoring watch • 3D Accelerometer – detects even the smallest movement • Optical Blood Flow Sensor – detects heart rate • Body Temperature Monitor – skin surface temperature • Ambient Temp Monitor – boost accuracy of caloric calculations • Galvanic Skin Response – the intensity of skin’s moisture output www.dcrainmaker.com/2011/11/walking-down-street-where-blue-dot-on.html www.mybasis.com
  24. 24. 26 #LonFut – London Futurists Digital pills that tell doctors when they’re swallowed • The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved an ingestible sensor that can be packaged inside a pill – potentially costing just 1 cent per pill (once mass volume is reached) • When it reaches the stomach, it sends a signal to a patch that the patient wears on the skin • That patch records the time when the medication and its sensor were ingested, and transmits that information (along with some other health stats like heart rate) to a smartphone app • The patient can then share his records with doctors, family members, or anyone else who's helping him monitor his medication compliance • “About half of all people don’t take medications like they’re supposed to… This device could be a solution…, so that doctors can know when to rev up a patient’s medication adherence” - Eric Topol http://blogs.nature.com/news/2012/07/digital-pills-make-their-way-to-market.html http://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/biomedical/devices/a-medical-sensor-you-can-swallow “The ingestible sensor is composed of materials from your diet and has no battery and no antenna. It’s powered by you” http://proteusdigitalhealth.com/
  25. 25. 27 #LonFut – London Futurists Trajectory 1: Technology “The best solution is to get rid of doctors and teachers and let your computers do the work, 24/7 and with consistent quality” “Machines will replace 80 percent of doctors” Vinod Khosla Sun Microsystems co-founder renowned Silicon Valley investor “Do We Need Doctors Or Algorithms?” http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2012-09/04/doctors-replaced-with-machines http://techcrunch.com/2012/01/10/doctors-or-algorithms/
  26. 26. 28 #LonFut – London Futurists Basis for radically improving healthcare • Miniature sensors • Imaging & scanning • 3D manufacturing • Personalised genomics • Synthetic biology • Electronic medical records • Ubiquitous smartphones • Communications facilities • Next gen social networks • Huge computing power • Expert decision systems • Online medical training http://CreativeDestructionOfMedicine.com/ “Technology super-convergence” http://atlanticmeetspacific.wordpress.com/2013/03/07/eric-topol-at-the-altantic-meets-the-pacific/ Eric Topol MD
  27. 27. 29 #LonFut – London Futurists The Carlson curves (Rob Carlson) Rob Carlson, June 2011: www.synthesis.cc Cost per Base of DNA Sequencing (Reading) & Synthesis (Writing)
  28. 28. 30 #LonFut – London Futurists Breakthrough technologies of next 5-10 yrs 1. Wearable computers (Google Glass and more) 2. Ubiquitous sensors (health, environ): Internet of Things 3. Ultra-strong materials – carbon nanotubes, graphene... 4. Synthetic biology (programming carbon, not silicon) 5. Stem cell therapies – replacement organs, rejuvenation 6. Smart drugs – boost concentration, memory 7. 3D printing and 3D scanning – mass personalisation 8. Driverless cars – example of connected automation 9. Intelligent robots – manufacturing, home help…
  29. 29. 31 #LonFut – London Futurists NBIC Technology mega-convergence Atoms Genes Neurons Bits Bio- Tech Nano- Tech ICT Cogno- Tech S^ ? http://www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/Report/NBIC_report.pdf Breakthrough technologies of next 15-30 yrs
  30. 30. 32 #LonFut – London Futurists The Singularity (S^) • We can no longer predict what happens next • Computers / robots more intelligent than humans – More generally intelligent than humans • They can create even better computers / robots • => Rapid, recursive, self-improvement cycle… • Super-intelligent systems could solve many existing deep human problems (disease, death, economics…) • But first we have to get there… (perhaps 15-30 years) • Surviving the next 15-30 years will be ultra-critical – Surviving the next 10 years will be hard enough S^ ?
  31. 31. 33 #LonFut – London Futurists Four overlapping trajectories 2010 2020 Humanity+ Humanity 1.0 http://humanityplus.org/
  32. 32. 34 #LonFut – London Futurists Trajectory 2: Crisis • Poverty? – 1970, more than 1/3 of developing world lived on < $1/day – Today, this is down to 5%: shrunk by factor of 7 – 1970, almost 1/2 the planet lived on < $1000 / year – Today, only 1/5 live on < $ 1000 / year • Malnutrition? – 1970, c. 25% of world population were malnourished – 2007, c. 13% of world population were malnourished • These are still important issues… – But the crises I have in mind have a different nature Ramez Naam: The Infinite Resource: The Power of Ideas on a Finite Planet Ramez Naam
  33. 33. 35 #LonFut – London Futurists Trajectory 2: Crisis “In Europe the epoch of conquest is over… It is as certain as anything in politics that the frontiers of our national states are finally drawn. My own belief is that there will be no more war among the six powers” War between the great powers has become an economic impossibility because of “the delicate interdependence of international finance” 1910: The Great Illusion, Norman Angell, British journalist Spring 1914: Henry Noel Brailsford, British member of the international commission reporting on the Balkan Wars http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/books/reviews/the-ascent-of-money-by-niall-ferguson-980013.html http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/1933/angell-bio.html http://www.marxists.org/history/archive/brailsford/index.htm
  34. 34. 36 #LonFut – London Futurists The underlying causes of crises • Connections that no-one fully understands – Innovations that no-one fully understands • Unfounded over-confidence • Systems that are pumped up & take on a life of their own – Via positive feedback cycles (“reflexivity”) “It is hard for us, and without being flippant, to even see a scenario within any kind of realm of reason that would see us losing $1 in any of those [credit default swaps] transactions” Joe Cassano, AIG Chief Financial Officer, Wall Street investor conference call, August 2007 http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=7210007&page=1#.UW6RDrVwqSp http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Soros
  35. 35. 37 #LonFut – London Futurists The underlying causes of crises “In the run-up to the 2008 crisis, our ability to make good decisions was simply overwhelmed because things were allowed to evolve in too complex a manner through financial innovation…” Ha Joon Chang, Reader in the Political Economy of Development, Cambridge Univ, “23 things they don’t teach you about capitalism” http://www.amazon.co.uk/Things-They-Dont-About-Capitalism/dp/0141047976 http://www.devstudies.cam.ac.uk/people/academic/hajoon.html “Even financial experts themselves did not fully understand them… the top decision-makers of the financial firms certainly did not grasp much of what their businesses were doing. Nor could the regulatory authorities fully figure out what was going on.” “We are now seeing a flood of confessions…”
  36. 36. 38 #LonFut – London Futurists The underlying causes of crises “I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organisations, specifically banks and others, were such that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity in the firms” – Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve chairman http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/24/economics-creditcrunch-federal-reserve-greenspan “Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders’ equity (myself especially) are in a state of shocked disbelief” – Henry Paulsen, US treasury secretary http://www.fxtimes.com/glossary/alan-greenspan/ http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7631431.stm
  37. 37. 39 #LonFut – London Futurists The background to a crisis • Connections that no-one fully understands – Innovations that no-one fully understands • Unfounded over-confidence • Systems that are pumped up & take on a life of their own – Via positive feedback cycles (“reflexivity”) Technological progress Greater consumption Greater connectivity Raised expectations Environmental damage Resource shortages Greater uncertainty
  38. 38. 40 #LonFut – London Futurists Crises we should fear: #1 • 1914-1918: World War 1: 17 million people killed – ~10 million military personnel and ~7 million civilians • 1918-1920: “Spanish Flu” – 50 million people killed (~100 million by some estimates) – Deliberately under-reported at the time in the media – “The greatest medical holocaust in history” • “Killed more people in 24 weeks than AIDS has killed in 24 years” • “More in a year than the Black Death killed in a century” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I_casualties War between the great powers has become an economic impossibility because of “the delicate interdependence of international finance” 1910: The Great Illusion, Norman Angell, British journalist
  39. 39. 41 #LonFut – London Futurists Crises we should fear: #1 • Causes of global pandemic – Increased travel; Increased inter-connectivity – Society had been weakened by ravages of world war • Spread of swine flu (H1N1), 2009-2012 – Number of deaths: 18,000+ (some estimates are 300,000) – First reported: 17 March 2009, Mexico – 3 months later, there were reports in 74 different countries – Less lethal (fatality rate c. 0.03%) than the 1918 variant (2.5%+) • Risks of new diseases “going viral” – Society’s over-use of antibiotics – new diseases evolve rapidly – Irrational avoidance of vaccinations / weak information sharing – New pathogens created – accidentally or intentionally? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic
  40. 40. 42 #LonFut – London Futurists Crises we should fear: #2 • Risks of financial contagion “going viral” – Financial innovation with unintended side-effects • Savers not able to withdraw their savings from banks – Crisis in confidence in banking system • Debts increase but monetary holdings shrink • Whole countries become bankrupt – Cannot sustain “austerity measures” – Relationships of trust break down • Potential of rapidly changing “winners and losers” – Highly volatile situation -> temptations to adventurism • Compounded by decline in availability of key resources – Peak Oil, clean water, rare minerals… -> risks of conflict Ian Goldin: Divided Nations: Why global governance is failing, and what we can do about it http://blog.fxcc.com/contagion-dont-talk-to-anyone-dont-touch-anything/
  41. 41. 43 #LonFut – London Futurists Crises we should fear: #3 • Risks of climate changes “going viral” – Unintended side-effects of human emission of excess CO2 – Positive virtual circles -> Reach unexpected “tipping point”? http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21574461-climate-may-be-heating-up-less-response-greenhouse-gas-emissions
  42. 42. 44 #LonFut – London Futurists Crises we should fear: #3 • Risks of climate changes “going viral” – Unintended side-effects of human emission of excess CO2 – Positive virtual circles -> Reach unexpected “tipping point”? • Less ice on the planet means less incoming sunlight is reflected to space – Larger areas of water absorb more of the sunlight, increasing ocean temperature further -> release dissolved CO2 -> … • Higher tundra temperatures -> melt permafrost – Release vast amounts of trapped greenhouse gases (methane) – As (some think) in Permian extinction event, when 96% of all marine species became extinct about 250 million years ago • Higher atmospheric temperatures can change major ocean or atmospheric currents -> rapid local freezing! Ian Goldin: Divided Nations: Why global governance is failing, and what we can do about it www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/mar/25/frozen-spring-arctic-sea-ice-loss
  43. 43. 45 #LonFut – London Futurists Crises we should fear: #4 • Risks of human extremism “going viral” • “Moore’s Law of Mad Scientists” – Eliezer Yudkowsky – “The minimum IQ required to destroy the world drops by one point every 18 months” (or, perhaps, by more than one point) • Variants: The minimum IQ drops, that is required to: – Devise and deploy a weapon that wipes out a major city – Poison the water table for a region – Paralyse the whole Internet (and with it, much of modern life) – Unleash a devastating plague… • Angry, irrational people can unleash terrible carnage – Not necessarily fully intentionally – Their actions can trigger worse reactions http://selenite.livejournal.com/105973.html
  44. 44. 47 #LonFut – London Futurists Crises we should fear: #5 • Risks of unexpectedly powerful consequences of new technology • New software often has unexpected bugs – Whole financial trading system could be thrown into jeopardy • Nanotech pollutants – like asbestos? • First atomic bomb might set whole atmosphere on fire • First hydrogen bomb test, 1st March 1954, Bikini Atoll – Explosive yield was expected to be from 4 to 6 Megatons – Was 15 Megatons, two and a half times the expected maximum – Physics error by the designers at Los Alamos National Lab – Wrongly considered the lithium-7 isotope to be inert in bomb – The crew in a nearby Japanese fishing boat became ill in the wake of direct contact with the fallout. One of the crew died http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Castle_Bravo
  45. 45. 48 #LonFut – London Futurists Crises and responses 1. Global pandemics 2. Financial system collapse 3. Runaway climate change 4. Fundamentalist terrorism 5. Runaway technology Surveillance Regulation Coordination Clean energy Abundance Reversibility Incentives Humility Education Complexity, Connectivity, Over-confidence Research Anders Sandberg: Assessing major risks: what should we worry about: Sat 27th April
  46. 46. 49 #LonFut – London Futurists Four overlapping trajectories 2010 2020 Humanity+ Humanity 1.0 http://humanityplus.org/
  47. 47. 51 #LonFut – London Futurists Trajectory 3: Collaboration Better collaboration can emerge from better technology • Online community • Wikipedia • Khan Academy • Less Wrong – Eliezer Yudkowsky • The Asteroids Club – Jonathan Haidt • Deliberator.com… So far, none of these tools is ideal Online tools, personal enhancers We must keep looking
  48. 48. 52 #LonFut – London Futurists Collaboration via moral bio-enhancement • “Artificial moral enhancement is now essential if humanity is to avoid catastrophe” – Prof Julian Savulescu, Oxford University – Prof Ingmar Persson, University of Gothenburg • We are facing two major threats: – climate change and increasingly scarce natural resources – war, using immensely powerful weapons • Our Natural Moral Psychology – insufficient to meet these challenges • We can directly affect the biological or physiological bases of human motivation (complementing, not replacing, traditional moral education, e.g. NVC) – by using external devices that affect the brain or the learning process – or through smart drugs (“nootropics”) and/or electromagnetic stimulation – or through genetic selection or re-engineering http://philosophynow.org/issues/91/Moral_Enhancement
  49. 49. 53 #LonFut – London Futurists Four overlapping trajectories 2010 2020 Humanity+ Humanity 1.0 http://humanityplus.org/
  50. 50. 54 #LonFut – London Futurists Humanity+ vs. Humanity- Humanity enhanced • Abundance mentality • Sharing motive central • Golden age in near future • Embrace progress • Use our power wisely • Aim is “better than well” • Expect personal vitality • Inspirational approach Humanity constrained • Scarcity mentality • Profit motive central • Look back to “golden age” • Fear progress • Avoid “playing God” • Aim to be “well” • Expect personal decay • Defeatist approach
  51. 51. 55 #LonFut – London Futurists The Humanity+ vision • Humanity is on the brink of a momentous leap forwards in evolution – If we are wise and strong, we can make that leap • This evolutionary transformation takes advantage of rapidly improving technology – Technology that arises from positive virtuous cycles and unprecedented interdisciplinary convergence – This technology will grant us awesome powers: the power to capture ample energy from the Sun, the atom, and beyond; the power to synthesise new materials to rejuvenate our environment and fuel our societies; the power to realise an unparalleled abundance of health, security, vigour, vitality, creativity, knowledge, and experience http://dw2blog.com/2013/02/04/responding-to-the-call-for-a-new-humanity-manifesto/
  52. 52. 56 #LonFut – London Futurists What does the future hold? David Wood, Catalyst & Futurist, Delta Wisdom, @dw2 http://dw2blog.com/ London Futurists, www.meetup.com/London-Futurists Slideshare.NET / DeltaWisdom : DW_LFandTZM_Future
  53. 53. 57 #LonFut – London Futurists Recommended further reading http://www.singularityweblog.com/ http://hplusmagazine.com/ http://transhumanity.net/
  54. 54. 58 #LonFut – London Futurists Recommended further reading Mark Stevenson Joel Garreau James Hughes
  55. 55. 59 #LonFut – London Futurists Recommended further reading
  56. 56. 60 #LonFut – London Futurists For more information http://www.meetup.com/London-Futurists/events/108603742/

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