ICv2 Hobby Games White Paper - Summer 2023

©2023 GCO, LLC. Do not reprint without permission.
August 2023
Hobby Games – State of the Industry
ICv2 WHITE PAPER

ICv2 covers the categories that drive geek culture
• Hobby games—TCGs, RPGs, miniatures, board and card games
• Comics, graphic novels, and manga
• Showbiz and merch tied to geek culture properties

In print: Internal Correspondence

ICv2 Pro: For Serious Users and Supporters

Hobby Games Market Analysis
• Where do we get information?
– Interviews – Publishers, distributors, retailers, others
– Publicly traded company information
– Circana (f/k/a NPD) reports
– Kickstarter data
• Estimates built up by category

2022 – A Return to Normalcy
• Supply chains cheaper, faster, but some shortages
persist
• Demand reverting to pre-Covid trends
– Collectibles cooling
– At-home activities shrinking
– Consumer spending on games less overheated
• Trade working through inventory issues

2022 - A Return to Normalcy
• In-store shopping strong
• Organized play slowly growing
• Conventions return, smaller

Other 2022 Trends
• Other 2022 Trends
– Mass consumers more affected by inflation, return to
normal activities
– Ongoing pressure on discovery
– Financial stresses on mid-size game companies

What Is the Hobby Games Market?
• Games produced for a “gamer” market
• Usually but not always sold in the hobby games
channel
• The market for those games, regardless of which
channel

Total Hobby Games Market –
2017-2022

14th Year of Hobby Channel Growth
• Hobby channel up
roughly 10%
• 14th year of growth!
• Store count flat to up
• Dilletantes dropping
off
YEAR
Hobby Channel
Growth Rate
2022 10%
2021 30%
2020 15%
2019 5%
2018 10%
2017 5%

2022 by Channel
• Hobby channel continues to grow
• Mass and Specialty Retail – Circana Games and
Puzzles Flat YoY
• Hasbro non-WotC/Digital games down 28%
• Crowdfunding down

Hobby Games Market by Category
• Collectible games
now over 50% of
hobby
• Collectibles, minis,
RPGs over 75%
• Hardcore hobby
categories held up
better in 2022

Collectible Games

2022 Collectibles Demand Down, Sales Up
• Turbulent year, with reduced frenzy, adjustments
• Improved production relative to demand
• Product surges hurt sales on individual products
• Lower margins for hobby retailers

2022 Collectibles by Line
• Pokemon up over 20% on improved supply
• A tough year for Magic
– Tons of products, formats
– Over-buying on some products
– Overpriced on Anniversary product
• Yu-Gi-Oh up

2022 Collectibles by Line
• Bandai’s One Piece the most successful launch
• Expanding distribution on My Hero Academia
• Flesh and Blood hanging in, good year for Weiss
Schwarz
• Continuing flow of new indie TCGs, following
MetaZoo

Non-Collectible Miniature Games

Games Workshop Flat
• According to financials, flat in North America
• Supply on new releases improved
• Still struggling on backlist supply
• Still struggling on paint supply
• Still allocating wholesalers

2022 Minis Trends
• WizKids struggling to supply backlist
• Battletech fastest growth
• Tertiary lines softening
• Painting still strong

Non-Collectible Miniature Games

Hobby Board Games

Tough Year for Board Games at Mass
• Target moms stopped buying
• Inventory overhang at beginning of year
• Reduced ordering throughout the year
• Barnes & Noble stronger than mass

Board Games in Hobby Still Growing
• Evergreens still selling
• New consumers continue trend
• Shortage of new hits, old hits (Wingspan) aging
• Challenging times for B games – discovery,
inventory strategies

Hobby Card and Dice Games

2022 Card Games
• Adult party game leaders solid at mass
• A hobbier list in hobby channel
• Mixed bag produces near-flat sales

Roleplaying Games

RPG Continue Strong Growth
• Stranger Things boosts D&D (again)
• Growth in core brand continues to feed other lines
• Indie RPGs bigger all the time

Multiple Factors Weigh on Spring Sales
• Tough comparisons to big Spring 2022
• Dearth of new hobby game hits
• End of the post-Covid bump
• General economic nervousness

Spring 2023 Sales
• More variability in reports
• Center around small single-digit decline
• Sales remain well above 2019

Spring 2023 Collectible Game Sales
Up Modestly
• Reasons shifting from Covid era
• Lower initial orders on Magic releases improve
sell-through
• March of the Machine: The Aftermath a bridge too far
• Pokemon reports mixed, depending on 2022 sales
• No boosters for Crown Zenith
• Pokemon up at mass, Magic down

Spring 2023 Collectible Game Sales
Up Modestly
• One Piece remains hot, with chronic undersupply
• Weiss Schwarz continues upward trend
• Flesh and Blood remains solid
• My Hero Academia up on improved availability
• Newbies continue to launch: Kryptik and
Grand Archive
• How many is too many?

Top Collectible Games – Hobby Channel
Spring 2023
Rank Title Publisher
1 Magic: The Gathering Wizards of the Coast
2 Pokemon TCG TPCI
3 Yu-Gi-Oh! TCG Konami
4 One Piece Card Game Bandai
5 Weiss Schwarz Bushiroad
6 Flesh and Blood Legend Story
7 Cardfight!! Vanguard Bushiroad
8 Icons of the Realms WizKids
9 Digimon Card Game Bandai
10 My Hero Academia TCG Jasco

Top Collectible Games – Mass Channel
Spring 2023
1 Pokemon TPCI
3 Yu-GI-Oh! TCG Konami

Top Collectible Games – Overall
Spring 2023
1 Pokemon TCG TPCI
3 Yu-Gi-Oh! TCG Konami

Swirl of Spring 2023 Miniatures Trends
• Games Workshop slims down channel with
allocations, limiting sales
• Nolzur’s Marvelous Miniatures supply up, demand
down
• Battletech to #3 on better availability, growing
community
• D&D Onslaught launches strong

Top Miniatures Lines – Spring 2023
1 Warhammer 40,000 Games Workshop
2 Nolzur's Marvelous Miniatures WizKids
3 Battletech Catalyst Game Labs
4 Age of Sigmar Games Workshop
5 Star Wars Legion Atomic Mass Games
6 Marvel Crisis Protocol Atomic Mass Games
7 D&D Onslaught WizKids
8 Pathfinder Deep Cuts WizKids
9 Bones Reaper
10 Malifaux Wyrd

Spring 2023 Board and
Card Games Softer
• Covid trends unwind, quantities decline
• Evergreen sales, new customer acquisition down
• Price-related sales shifts, except ultra-high end
• Play styles trend toward casual

Notable Board and Card Game Movers
• Red Raven’s Sleeping Gods
• Splotter Spellen’s Horseless Carriage
• Ares Games’ War of the Ring
• FFG’s Star Wars Deckbuilding Game

Top Hobby Channel Board Games –
Spring 2023
1 Wingspan Stonemaier
2 Root Leder Games
3 Sleeping Gods Red Raven Games
4 Cascadia AEG
5 Gloomhaven Cephalofair
6 Ark Nova Capstone
7 Catan Asmodee
8 Betrayal at House on the Hill Avalon Hill
9 Heroquest Avalon Hill
10 Horseless Carriage Splotter Spellen

Top Hobby Channel Card, Dice Games –
Spring 2023
1 Codenames Czech Games, The Op
2 Dominion Rio Grande Games
3 War of the Ring Ares Games
4 CLANK! Dire Wolf
5 Marvel Legendary Upper Deck
6 Coup Indie Boards & Cards
7 Star Wars Deckbuilding Game Fantasy Flight Games
8 Marvel Champions Fantasy Flight Games
9 Monopoly Deal Hasbro
10 Bang! Upper Deck

Flying Beneath the Radar
• Van Ryder’s Final Girl
• Hachette’s Turing Machine
• Lucky Duck’s Flamecraft

OGL Mis-Step Shakes Up RPG Biz
• Pathfinder, other RPGs up
• D&D not down, but was growth dampened?
• Notable non-charters:
– Avatar Legends
– Dark Souls
– Mork Bork, Cy_Borg
– Everyday Heroes

Top Roleplaying Games –
Spring 2023
1 Dungeons and Dragons Wizards of the Coast
2 Pathfinder Paizo
3 Avatar Legends RPG Magpie Games
4 Vampire: The Masquerade Renegade Game Studios
5 Dark Souls RPG Steamforged

2023 Uncertainty
• Impact of TCG blockbusters
– Magic: Lord of the Rings, Commander Masters
– Lorcana
• Impact of miniatures blockbusters
– Warhammer 40,000 10th Edition
– Star Wars: Shatterpoint

2023 Uncertainty
• Economy (inflation, recession?)
• When does revenge travel abate
• How do consumers spend time this winter?

Questions and Comments
• For deck: business card with “deck” on the back

ICv2 Hobby Games White Paper - Summer 2023

ICv2 Hobby Games White Paper - Summer 2023

Recommandé

Contenu connexe

Similaire à ICv2 Hobby Games White Paper - Summer 2023

Similaire à ICv2 Hobby Games White Paper - Summer 2023(20)

Dernier

Dernier(20)

ICv2 Hobby Games White Paper - Summer 2023