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Desert Locust vs. IPM
Recession area
   16 million km2




                    Invasion area
                     20% Earth’s land
countries with swarms                                   non plague          plague
50


40


30


20


10


 0
 1860    70   80   90   1900   10   20   30   40   50   60     70   80    90   2000   10




           irregular recessions and plagues
                      (1860 - 2011)
2003-05 regional plague

23 countries
$400 million
130k km2 sprayed
Combination of best possible practices



Strategic                                     13           0.4
  management not eradication
                                             2003-05      2006-12
  preventive before curative
                                              millions ha sprayed




Operational
 24/7 monitoring & forecasting
 GIS & remote sensing (find more infestations faster)
 targeted & timely control
 use biopesticides & barrier treatments
front-line
                                                                                                         secondary
                                                                                                         invasion




                                                                                                                                   warning level: CAUTION



                                              DESERT LOCUST BULLETIN
                                               FAO Emergency Centre for Locust Operations                                                         No. 401

                                                        General Situation during February 2012                                                  (2 Mar 2012)
                                                        Forecast until mid-April 2012
                                                 A Desert Locust outbreak developed in early         near Djanet. National ground teams treated 2,365
                                              February in southwest Libya. Some adults moved         ha in Libya and 230 ha in Algeria during February.
                                              into adjacent areas of southeast Algeria where         Good rains fell over a large area at mid-month and
                                              local infestations were already present. Survey        high-density adult groups were seen copulating.
                                              and control operations were limited due to             Consequently, a second generation of breeding will
                                              insecurity in both areas. Good rains that fell in      occur with hatching and hopper band formation during
                                              both countries will allow a second generation of       March and April. This is expected to cause locust
                                              breeding to occur during March and April. This         numbers to increase dramatically in Libya and, to a
                                              is expected to cause locust numbers to increase        lesser extent, in Algeria. The situation is not entirely
                                              dramatically and hopper bands to form. Scattered
                                              adults arriving from northern Niger may augment        on both sides of the border that hamper survey and
                                              local populations. All efforts are required to         control operations. In northern Niger, scattered adults
                                              monitor the situation carefully and undertake the      that are likely to be present in the Air Mountains may
                                              necessary control operations to avoid a further        move into southern Algeria during March. No locusts
                                              escalation in the situation. Elsewhere, there was      were reported elsewhere in the region.
                                              very little locust activity in the winter breeding



data collection   •   analysis   •   inform
                                              areas along both sides of the Red Sea due to              Central Region. Vegetation continued to dry out
                                              poor rainfall and dry conditions. In South-West        in the winter breeding areas along both sides of


                                                                                      www.fao.org/ag/locusts
                                              Asia, small-scale breeding is expected to occur        the Red Sea due to a lack of rain during February.
                                              during the forecast period in western Pakistan and     Nevertheless, breeding conditions were favourable on
                                              southeastern Iran but locust numbers will remain       the southern coast in Sudan where scattered adults
                                              below threatening levels.                              were present and laying eggs, and on the central Red
                                                                                                     Sea coast in Yemen. Isolated adults were present in
                                                Western Region. An outbreak developed in early       northern Oman. No locusts were seen during surveys
                                              February in southwest Libya near the Algerian          in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. During the forecast
                                              border as a result of good rains in October 2011 and   period, limited hatching will occur in Sudan but no
0.25 degree
    daily, decadal, monthly
    daily averages of 3-hourly CMORPH (NOAA/CPC)
    source: IRI, Columbia Univ (USA)




0         20         40        60        80        100   120   140 mm

                            Rainfall estimates
rainfall & temperature forecasts
6 months in advance, updated monthly
ECMWF anomaly 1981-2012
source: Prescient Weather (PA, USA)




                 20       50           100   180   300% normal rainfall


                       Seasonal predictions
250m
every 16 days
NDVI (green vegetation)
source: IRI, Columbia Univ (USA)




                           MODIS imagery
MODIS imagery (NW Mauritania, Oct 2010)
1   2   3   4     5    6     7      8       9   10   11

        onset of green vegetation (weeks)
rainfall estimate
greenness map
locust survey & control data
reference (Landsat & TPC)
Key to success

use appropriate products available on time

beware of RS limitations

open source / module architecture GIS

provide sufficient training & support


                                Keith Cressman
                                Senior Locust Forecasting Officer
                                UN FAO, Rome
                                keith.cressman@fao.org
                                www.fao.org/ag/locusts

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Ipm12cressmanfaolocust 120402071009-phpapp02

  • 2. Recession area 16 million km2 Invasion area 20% Earth’s land
  • 3. countries with swarms non plague plague 50 40 30 20 10 0 1860 70 80 90 1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 10 irregular recessions and plagues (1860 - 2011)
  • 4. 2003-05 regional plague 23 countries $400 million 130k km2 sprayed
  • 5. Combination of best possible practices Strategic 13 0.4 management not eradication 2003-05 2006-12 preventive before curative millions ha sprayed Operational 24/7 monitoring & forecasting GIS & remote sensing (find more infestations faster) targeted & timely control use biopesticides & barrier treatments
  • 6. front-line secondary invasion warning level: CAUTION DESERT LOCUST BULLETIN FAO Emergency Centre for Locust Operations No. 401 General Situation during February 2012 (2 Mar 2012) Forecast until mid-April 2012 A Desert Locust outbreak developed in early near Djanet. National ground teams treated 2,365 February in southwest Libya. Some adults moved ha in Libya and 230 ha in Algeria during February. into adjacent areas of southeast Algeria where Good rains fell over a large area at mid-month and local infestations were already present. Survey high-density adult groups were seen copulating. and control operations were limited due to Consequently, a second generation of breeding will insecurity in both areas. Good rains that fell in occur with hatching and hopper band formation during both countries will allow a second generation of March and April. This is expected to cause locust breeding to occur during March and April. This numbers to increase dramatically in Libya and, to a is expected to cause locust numbers to increase lesser extent, in Algeria. The situation is not entirely dramatically and hopper bands to form. Scattered adults arriving from northern Niger may augment on both sides of the border that hamper survey and local populations. All efforts are required to control operations. In northern Niger, scattered adults monitor the situation carefully and undertake the that are likely to be present in the Air Mountains may necessary control operations to avoid a further move into southern Algeria during March. No locusts escalation in the situation. Elsewhere, there was were reported elsewhere in the region. very little locust activity in the winter breeding data collection • analysis • inform areas along both sides of the Red Sea due to Central Region. Vegetation continued to dry out poor rainfall and dry conditions. In South-West in the winter breeding areas along both sides of www.fao.org/ag/locusts Asia, small-scale breeding is expected to occur the Red Sea due to a lack of rain during February. during the forecast period in western Pakistan and Nevertheless, breeding conditions were favourable on southeastern Iran but locust numbers will remain the southern coast in Sudan where scattered adults below threatening levels. were present and laying eggs, and on the central Red Sea coast in Yemen. Isolated adults were present in Western Region. An outbreak developed in early northern Oman. No locusts were seen during surveys February in southwest Libya near the Algerian in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. During the forecast border as a result of good rains in October 2011 and period, limited hatching will occur in Sudan but no
  • 7. 0.25 degree daily, decadal, monthly daily averages of 3-hourly CMORPH (NOAA/CPC) source: IRI, Columbia Univ (USA) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 mm Rainfall estimates
  • 8. rainfall & temperature forecasts 6 months in advance, updated monthly ECMWF anomaly 1981-2012 source: Prescient Weather (PA, USA) 20 50 100 180 300% normal rainfall Seasonal predictions
  • 9. 250m every 16 days NDVI (green vegetation) source: IRI, Columbia Univ (USA) MODIS imagery
  • 10. MODIS imagery (NW Mauritania, Oct 2010)
  • 11. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 onset of green vegetation (weeks)
  • 12. rainfall estimate greenness map locust survey & control data reference (Landsat & TPC)
  • 13. Key to success use appropriate products available on time beware of RS limitations open source / module architecture GIS provide sufficient training & support Keith Cressman Senior Locust Forecasting Officer UN FAO, Rome keith.cressman@fao.org www.fao.org/ag/locusts