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Automotive Aluminum:
Continued Gains in Fuel Economy

          Doug Richman
          Kaiser Aluminum

           August 12, 2010


                              1
About The Aluminum Association’s
Aluminum Transportation Group (ATG)




    www.aluminumintransportation.org
Aluminum Facts

   • Aluminum - most abundant metal
   • 75% of all aluminum produced since
     1888 is still in use
   • Recycled aluminum uses 5% of the
     energy required to produce primary
     aluminum
   • 95+% of Automotive aluminum is
     recycled
Outline
• Auto Aluminum Today
  – Demand Drivers
• Weight, Fuel Efficiency, Cost
  – SI / CI
  – Hybrid
  – Electric (EV, HEV)
• Weight and Life Cycle – Energy, CO2
• Auto Aluminum Forecast


                                    4
Auto Aluminum Demand Drivers

• Not a new automotive
  material
• Weight reduction
  – Fuel Economy (CAFE)
  – Performance

• Inhibitors
  – Cost / Benefit (vs. steel)
Aluminum Use in Light Duty
        Vehicles
Auto Aluminum Content –
                Percent of Curb Weight
                                  (North America)
  12%                                                                                                11.3%
                                 50 Years of Uninterrupted                                   10.0%
  10%
                                    Aluminum Growth                                  8.8%              394
                                                                          7.8%                       Pounds
   8%                                                            6.9%
                                                          6.1%                       334
   6%                                             5.1%                          Pounds
                                           4.5%
                          77
                                   3.9%
   4%                   Pounds
                 2.0%     2.1%
   2%
                                                                        Historical     Forecast
   0%
Calendar Year   1970     1975     1980    1985    1990   1995    2000    2005        2010F   2015F   2020F


                                   Aluminum Share as Percentage of Curb Weight
Partial List of High Aluminum
       Content Vehicles (1)
  Euopean Union Aluminum Content            N. American Aluminum Content           Japan Aluminum Content
Over 500 lbs.          400 to 500 lbs.     Over 500 lbs.   400 to 500 lbs.    Over 500 lbs.        400 to 500 lbs.
Audi A6                Rover Defender      Altima          Chrysler 300       Nissan Cima/Q45      Subaru Legacy
Audi A7/Q7             Range Rover         Maxima          Charger            Nissan Fuga/M45M36   Nissan Stagea
Audi A8                Renault Espace      Lincoln LS      Magnum             Nissan Skyline/G35   Nissan Fairady Z
Audi TT                Renault Vel Satis   Navigator       Ford F150          Toyota Celsior       Toyota Majesta
Audi LeMans            Citron C6           Expedition      Explorer           Toyota Soarer        Toyota Aristo
Bentley Continental    Volvo V70           Corvette        Ford GT            Toyota Crown         Honda S2000
BMW 5 Series           Volvo S60           Cadillac CTS    Mustang            Toyota Mark X        Dahatsu Copen
BMW 6 Series           Volvo S80           Cadillac STS    Legacy/Outback     Honda Legend         Honda Insight
BMW 7 Series           Porsche 911         Cadillac DTS    New Escalade       Acura RL
Rolls royce Phantom    Porsche Boxster     Cadillac XLR    New Suburban       Mazda RX8
Mercedes C Class       Porsche Cayenne     Pacifica        New Yukon
Mercedes E Class       Opel Signum         BMW Z4          New Tahoe
Mercedes S Class       Opel Vectra                         Subaru Tribeca
Mercedes CLK           Saab 9-3                            Lincoln Town Car
Mercedes SL Roadster   Saab 9--5                           Ford 500
Mercedes Maybach                                           Ford Freestyle
Jacuar XJ 350
Jaguar XK 150                                                                                  (1)   400+ lbs.
VW Phaeton
Ferrari F430                                    80+ Vehicles
Various Aston Martin
Various Lamborghini
2009 OEM Analysis
        2009 DODGE CHARGER- E Segment
          Unibody
        • 413 Pounds of finished aluminum
        • 10.9% of overall weight is aluminum
        • Aluminum:
            Driveline
            Hood, suspension arms, knuckles

        2009 NISSAN ALTIMA- D Segment
          Unibody
        • 409 Pounds of finished aluminum
        • 13% of overall weight is aluminum
        • Aluminum:
            Driveline
            Hood, suspension arms, knuckles
2009 OEM Analysis
        2009 HONDA CIVIC- C Segment Unibody
        • 310 Pounds of finished aluminum
        • 11.5% of overall weight is aluminum
        • Aluminum:
            Driveline
            Bumper beams, knuckles


        2010 LINCOLN MKT (2009 PRODUCTION)
          E Segment Unibody
        • 431 Pounds of finished aluminum
        • 10.6% of overall weight is aluminum
        • Aluminum:
            Driveline
            Hood, suspension arms, knuckles
Transportation Shipments by Product

                             Transportation Shipments by Product
                                   Forgings & Impacts
                                          2%
                                Extruded Products
                                       7%
                             Rolled Products
                                   10%




                                                               Castings
                                                                 81%
                                                             (4.3 B Lbs)

  The Aluminum Association


                                               Total = 6.3 B Lbs
Weight Reduction
       vs.
 Fuel Economy
Study Objectives
• Quantify impact of vehicle weight reduction
  – Fuel economy
  – Performance

• Quantify impact of engine downsizing
  – Maintain vehicle performance level

• Evaluate weight reduction with engine types
  – Gasoline (SI)
  – Diesel (CI)
Vehicle Selection
• Vehicle Classes
  – Range of vehicle weights and engines
  – passenger and light-duty truck

• Comparator Vehicle
  –   Small Car / Mini Cooper
  –   Mid-Size Car / Ford Fusion
  –   Small SUV / Saturn Vue
  –   Large SUV / Ford Explorer
  –   Truck / Toyota Tundra
Vehicle Simulations
• Vehicle fuel economy (MPG)
  –   EPA FTP75 (City)
  –   EPA HWFET (Highway)
  –   ECE (European)
  –   Steady State: 30, 45, 60 and 75 MPH

• Vehicle performance (sec.)
  –   0 – 10 MPH
  –   0 – 60 MPH
  –   30 – 50 MPH
  –   50 – 70 MPH

• Each vehicle:
  – Baseline
  – Base engine: weight reduced by 5%, 10% and 20%
  – Reduced weight and engine downsized to match the baseline
    vehicle performance
Weight Reduction vs.
                                  Fuel Economy
% Fuel Economy Improvement




                             CI Engine Results
                                                                                  W/ Secondary
                                                                         12.0 %
                                         Downsize Engines


                                                 6.5 %


                                                 3.5 %                 Base Engines




                                                  % Weight Reduction
Weight Reduction vs.
             Fuel Economy
                    Fuel Economy Improvement / 10% Weight
                                  Reduction
                          (EPA Combined Drive Cycle)
                   Passenger Vehicle                     Truck
                   Base        Downsized           Base     Downsized
                  Engine        Engine            Engine     Engine
Gasoline            3.3%           6.5%           3.5%           4.7%
  Diesel            3.9%           6.3%           3.6%           4.6%

Fuel economy impact of weight reduction
   –   Similar for gasoline and diesel vehicles
Truck engines
   –   Downsized to a lesser degree – maintain loaded performance
   –   Vehicles rated to tow a trailer benefit the least
PEV/PHEV Study Criteria

• Vehicles –
    Small car –     BMW Mini
    Small SUV – Saturn Vue


• Performance
    Range:             40 / 80 miles
    Acceleration:      10 sec. 0-60 MPH, FTP75
    Top speed:         100 MPH

  Note: PHEV, operates on batteries only, carries mass of ICE engine
    and associated “support systems”
Simulation Assumptions
• Rolling and Aero Resistance – Baseline Vehicles
     No secondary loads – steering, HVAC, etc.
     No additional structure to support battery (51 – 209 Kg)

• Battery – Lithium-Ion, Sized for Range
     SOC 0.9-0.25, 115 W-h/kg, 155 W-h/l

• Motor - Sized For Performance
     (FTP75, 0-60 time)
     top speed
     3.05 kW/kg motor power density

• Regenerative Braking @1000N, Throttle = 0
• Final Drive Ratio - Fixed
Weight Distribution of a Mid-Sized
        “Aluminum” Car
                                    Assembly
                             Electrical
                                2% 3%
                 Intgerior
                    12%




       Chassis                                      Powertrain
        14%                                            48%




     Body Other
        6%

             Closures
                4%
                                  BIW
                                  11%
                                               Avg. Weight = 1270 Kg
Vehicle Weight Analysis
          Small Car
Base (Steel)                              1,304 Kg
  - Powertrain system       (571) Kg
  + Hybrid charging          348
  + e Powertrain             124
                             (99)
HEV (Steel)                               1,205 Kg
  - Hybrid charging         (348)
  - Structure design (PT)    (52)
  - Light Weighting (AIV)   (147) (12%)
  - e Powertrain             (36)
                            (583)
EV Light Weight (Al)                       622 Kg
Vehicle Weight Analysis
         Small Car

EV Weight Reduction with Aluminum :

  BIW               96 KG reduction
  Closures          28
  Chassis           23
             Total 147 KG *

             * 19% of EV (622 Kg) final weight !
Small Car – Energy Usage

       PHEV (Fe): 1205 kg
       [Regen = 20.9%]



                                   Note:
                                   Gasoline:
                                   (typ.) >60%




                            Schedule (FTP75)
EV Mass vs.
Energy Consumption




                1.3 KWh/100 Mi per 100 Kg




     Vehicle Mass (Kg)
                                            26
PEV (PHEV) Study Findings

• 10% Mass Reduction: 4 – 6% reduction in battery size
• Low Mass Aluminum Structure Achieves
   – Weight reduction potential: 147 Kg (19%)
      • Reduce battery cost:   $ 900 – $ 1,950 (@ $750/KWh)
      • Expected aluminum structure cost premium : $ 630

      • Net cost savings = $775
   – Reduced energy consumption: 1.3 KWh / 100 Mi per 100 Kg




                                                               27
Regenerative Braking
           PEV/PHEV

• Impact of regenerative braking
• Effect of weight reduction on benefit
Regenerative Braking
     Small Car
Small Car – Energy Usage
PHEV (Fe): 1205 kg   PHEV (Al): 1031 kg
[Regen = 20.9%]      [Regen = 20%]




PEV (Fe): 781 kg     PEV (Al): 627 kg
[Regen = 18.1%]      [Regen = 15.6%]
PEV (PHEV) Study Findings

• Regenerative Braking
  – Recycles 15 – 20% of FTP75 drive cycle energy

  – Impact (%) essentially independent of vehicles mass




                                                          31
Automotive Aluminum
                   Life Cycle

      Mass                              Better Fuel
  Reduction                             Economy




               Infinitely    Reduced
               Recyclable   Emissions




  Enhanced
Performance                               Improved
                                          Safety
Comparative Life Cycle Assessment

• Life cycle analysis (LCA) study conducted by the
  “Magnesium Front End Research and Development”
     – Sponsorship: Canada, China and U.S.
     – Environmental performance of:
         • 2007 Cadillac CTS front end – steel design
         • new magnesium and aluminum designs

• Environmental impacts
     – Total energy
     – Greenhouse gases emissions
     – Air pollutants


Source: SAE 2010-01-0275, Magnesium Front End Research and Development Project
                                                                           33
Less Life Cycle Emissions




                                                               34
Source: Magnesium Front End Research and Development Project
Emissions Over Vehicle Lifetime

   Lifetime Emissions Output                   Lifetime Energy Consumed




                                   Steel
                                   Magnesium
                                   Aluminum




Source: Magnesium Front End Research and Development Project        35
Life Cycle Study
• Use Phase dominates Life Cycle (Energy / Emissions)
   – Weight reduction

• Energy Consumption / Emissions
   – Magnesium              15% savings
   – Aluminum               20% savings

• Aluminum – “Best lifetime performance for overall energy
  use and greenhouse gas emissions”

  To purchase a full copy of the study (SAE 2010-01-0275), visit the World Congress
  Technical Papers Store on the SAE website at: www.sae.org

  For additional life cycle data on aluminum in transport go the Aluminum Automotive
  Industry website http://transport.world-aluminium.org/facts/life-cycle-data/

                                                                                       36
Automotive Aluminum
     Forecast

The Value Proposition
Auto Fuel Economy Objectives
          2010-2020
 • Achieve reasonable return on investment
 • CAFE: +10 MPG (+40%)
 • Continuous Improvement
    –   Vehicle utility – size, range, performance
    –   Safety
    –   Reliability
    –   Customer satisfaction
    –   Affordability
    –   Emissions
 • Constraints
    –   Engineering resources
    –   Product life cycle (8 – 10 years)
    –   Manufacturing resources
    –   Investment capital
CAFE (MPG)
19




       10
              15
                     20
                                    25
                                               30
                                                       35
                                                                40
                                                                         45
                                                                                50
  75
19
  77
19
  79
19
  81
19
  83
19
  85
19
  87
19
  89
19
  91
19
  93
19
  95
19
  97
19
  99
20
                                                       Weight




  01
20
                                                                                       CAFE Trends




  03
                                           FE Actual




20
  05
20
  07
20
  09
20
  11
20
  13
20
  15
20
                        CAFE Standard




  17
20
  19
                                                                                                     Fuel Economy History



                                                                  35.5




       1000
              1500
                     2000
                                    2500
                                               3000
                                                       3500
                                                                4000
                                                                         4500
                                                                                5000




              Vehicle Weight (Lbs)
FE Technology Assessment (2010)
                  (National Academy of Science - July 2010)


Technology                    FE       Cost ($/           $ / % FE
                             Imp.       Veh.)               Imp.
Engine
 Conv. Eng Improvements         7%               $ 700         $ 100
 Conv. Downsize, Turbo          5%         $ 650 - 950         $ 160
 Diesel Engine                 25 %     $ 3,000 - 4,500        $ 170
 Gas Electric Hybrid           35 %    $ 4,500 – 6,500         $ 160
 Electric Hybrid (Plug-in)     ???    $13,000 – 23,000
 Electric                      ???                 NA
 Fuel Cell                      NA                 NA

Vehicle                                                                * Cost estimate
 Weight reduction (10%)         7%       * $ 800-1,600         $ 170
                                                                       does not include
                                                                       savings from
 Aero                           2%                $ 70          $ 50
                                                                       secondary
 Brakes                         1%                  ---                component weight
 Tires                          2%                $ 50          $ 25   optimization
 Transmission                   3%                $ 30          $ 10
 Accessories                    2%               $ 100          $ 50
Body Holds the Largest Weight
      Reduction Opportunity

•Shift to aluminum saves
                                     12,000


 550 lbs direct and                  10,000
                                                  Currently Aluminum
 secondary weight                                 Aluminum Opportunity




                           KMT Aluminum
                                          8,000
•10% better fuel economy
                                          6,000
•No compromise to safety
                                          4,000
•No downsizing required
                                          2,000
•Better performance
                                             0
•Lower lifetime CO2


                                                                  41
Weight Reduction Potential
     with Aluminum
                 MID-SIZE CAR EXAMPLE
                                                       Cost     Multi material body:
                          Al Weight   Wt. Reduction
                                                      Impact
                                                                 AL Sheet      330 Lbs
    BIW                   320 Lbs       280 Lbs       $ 455      Al Extrusion 60
                                                                 Al Castings    30
    Closures              115 Lbs        70 Lbs       $ 150
                                                                 Steel Sheet   50
    Structures             45 Lbs        50 Lbs       $ 160      HSLA Sheet 10

                 Total
                          480 Lbs       380 Lbs       $ 765
               (Direct)

    Optimization
                          (50 Lbs)      170 Lbs       ($ 665)
      (In-direct)
                                                                    $ 0.18 Per Lb
                    Net   430 Lbs       550 Lbs       $ 100            Weight
                                                                     Reduction

                          15% Weight
                           Reduction
                                                                                42
Cost Estimates Related to Mass
NHTSA
   • NAS report - $1.50 per pound
   • Sierra Research - $1.01 per pound
     (w/secondary)
   • MIT - $1.36 per pound

Applying an ICM factor of 1.11 (low complexity technology),
  results in a compliance cost of $1.48 per pound. Based
  on current assumptions and recent studies, we’ve found
  costs ranging far below that average.
Down Weighting Creates Value
         for Alternative Powertrains

                     Percent Increase in MPG             Cost per 1 MPG Increase
   60.0%                                       $300
   50.0%                                       $250
   40.0%                                       $200
   30.0%                                       $150

   20.0%                                       $100

   10.0%                                        $50

     0.0%                                        $0
                 Baseline   Diesel   Hybrid           Baseline     Diesel   Hybrid
              Steel Body    Aluminum Body             Steel Body   Aluminum Body




                                                                                   44
Source: IBIS Associates
Weight Savings Translate to
                  Fuel Economy Improvement
                       Mass of Body-in-White                                                  Fuel Economy Improvement
            400                                                                          3
            350                                                                                               2.7 MPG
                                                                                        2.5                 Improvement
            300




                                                                     Miles per Gallon
Kilograms




            250                                                                          2

            200                                                                         1.5
            150
                                                                                         1
            100
                                                                                        0.5
            50

             0                                                                           0
                  Steel (baseline)   High Strength     Aluminum                               Steel (baseline- High Strength     Aluminum
                                     Steel Intensive   Intensive                                 30 mpg)       Steel Intensive   Intensive

     Source: ika - University of Aachen and the European Aluminium         Source: Aluminum Association calculated based on ika mass
     Association (EAA)                                                     reduction data; assumes 23% secondary weight savings




                                                                                                                                       45
40% (10 MPG) Fuel Economy
          Improvement by 2020
• No single dominant technology
• Aggressive application: most know practical technologies
• Technology estimate:                        (% Improvement)
   – Engine (Conventional, diesel, hybrid)    50 %   (5 MPG)
   – Vehicle (Tires, Aero, Transmission, …)   25 %   (2.5 MPG)
   – Weight (Aluminum, Magnesium, HSS)        25 %   (2.5 MPG)
       • Vehicle downsizing          50 %
       • Component optimization 35 %
       • Full AIV (10+%)             15 %
• Aluminum 2020
   – 394 Lb Average (+60 Lbs) – realistic
       • sheet, extrusion, casting
       • +1.0 MPG Fleet
                                                                 46
Automotive Weight Reduction
            Summary

• One pound of aluminum replaces two pounds of Fe /Steel
   – Can allow additional indirect reduction up to 0.5 Lbs
• 10% vehicle weight reduction: 6.5% fuel economy improvement
• Weight reduction additive to other fuel economy improvements
  – Including: Diesel, Hybrid, Electric, Aero, Tires, …
• Proven aluminum components can achieve 15% avg. weight
  reduction
   – 10 % MPG improvement (2.7 MPG)
• Weight reduction with aluminum cost competitive with other fuel
  economy technologies
2010 aug iqpc_pres

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2010 aug iqpc_pres

  • 1. Automotive Aluminum: Continued Gains in Fuel Economy Doug Richman Kaiser Aluminum August 12, 2010 1
  • 2. About The Aluminum Association’s Aluminum Transportation Group (ATG) www.aluminumintransportation.org
  • 3. Aluminum Facts • Aluminum - most abundant metal • 75% of all aluminum produced since 1888 is still in use • Recycled aluminum uses 5% of the energy required to produce primary aluminum • 95+% of Automotive aluminum is recycled
  • 4. Outline • Auto Aluminum Today – Demand Drivers • Weight, Fuel Efficiency, Cost – SI / CI – Hybrid – Electric (EV, HEV) • Weight and Life Cycle – Energy, CO2 • Auto Aluminum Forecast 4
  • 5. Auto Aluminum Demand Drivers • Not a new automotive material • Weight reduction – Fuel Economy (CAFE) – Performance • Inhibitors – Cost / Benefit (vs. steel)
  • 6. Aluminum Use in Light Duty Vehicles
  • 7. Auto Aluminum Content – Percent of Curb Weight (North America) 12% 11.3% 50 Years of Uninterrupted 10.0% 10% Aluminum Growth 8.8% 394 7.8% Pounds 8% 6.9% 6.1% 334 6% 5.1% Pounds 4.5% 77 3.9% 4% Pounds 2.0% 2.1% 2% Historical Forecast 0% Calendar Year 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010F 2015F 2020F Aluminum Share as Percentage of Curb Weight
  • 8. Partial List of High Aluminum Content Vehicles (1) Euopean Union Aluminum Content N. American Aluminum Content Japan Aluminum Content Over 500 lbs. 400 to 500 lbs. Over 500 lbs. 400 to 500 lbs. Over 500 lbs. 400 to 500 lbs. Audi A6 Rover Defender Altima Chrysler 300 Nissan Cima/Q45 Subaru Legacy Audi A7/Q7 Range Rover Maxima Charger Nissan Fuga/M45M36 Nissan Stagea Audi A8 Renault Espace Lincoln LS Magnum Nissan Skyline/G35 Nissan Fairady Z Audi TT Renault Vel Satis Navigator Ford F150 Toyota Celsior Toyota Majesta Audi LeMans Citron C6 Expedition Explorer Toyota Soarer Toyota Aristo Bentley Continental Volvo V70 Corvette Ford GT Toyota Crown Honda S2000 BMW 5 Series Volvo S60 Cadillac CTS Mustang Toyota Mark X Dahatsu Copen BMW 6 Series Volvo S80 Cadillac STS Legacy/Outback Honda Legend Honda Insight BMW 7 Series Porsche 911 Cadillac DTS New Escalade Acura RL Rolls royce Phantom Porsche Boxster Cadillac XLR New Suburban Mazda RX8 Mercedes C Class Porsche Cayenne Pacifica New Yukon Mercedes E Class Opel Signum BMW Z4 New Tahoe Mercedes S Class Opel Vectra Subaru Tribeca Mercedes CLK Saab 9-3 Lincoln Town Car Mercedes SL Roadster Saab 9--5 Ford 500 Mercedes Maybach Ford Freestyle Jacuar XJ 350 Jaguar XK 150 (1) 400+ lbs. VW Phaeton Ferrari F430 80+ Vehicles Various Aston Martin Various Lamborghini
  • 9. 2009 OEM Analysis 2009 DODGE CHARGER- E Segment Unibody • 413 Pounds of finished aluminum • 10.9% of overall weight is aluminum • Aluminum: Driveline Hood, suspension arms, knuckles 2009 NISSAN ALTIMA- D Segment Unibody • 409 Pounds of finished aluminum • 13% of overall weight is aluminum • Aluminum: Driveline Hood, suspension arms, knuckles
  • 10. 2009 OEM Analysis 2009 HONDA CIVIC- C Segment Unibody • 310 Pounds of finished aluminum • 11.5% of overall weight is aluminum • Aluminum: Driveline Bumper beams, knuckles 2010 LINCOLN MKT (2009 PRODUCTION) E Segment Unibody • 431 Pounds of finished aluminum • 10.6% of overall weight is aluminum • Aluminum: Driveline Hood, suspension arms, knuckles
  • 11. Transportation Shipments by Product Transportation Shipments by Product Forgings & Impacts 2% Extruded Products 7% Rolled Products 10% Castings 81% (4.3 B Lbs) The Aluminum Association Total = 6.3 B Lbs
  • 12. Weight Reduction vs. Fuel Economy
  • 13.
  • 14. Study Objectives • Quantify impact of vehicle weight reduction – Fuel economy – Performance • Quantify impact of engine downsizing – Maintain vehicle performance level • Evaluate weight reduction with engine types – Gasoline (SI) – Diesel (CI)
  • 15. Vehicle Selection • Vehicle Classes – Range of vehicle weights and engines – passenger and light-duty truck • Comparator Vehicle – Small Car / Mini Cooper – Mid-Size Car / Ford Fusion – Small SUV / Saturn Vue – Large SUV / Ford Explorer – Truck / Toyota Tundra
  • 16. Vehicle Simulations • Vehicle fuel economy (MPG) – EPA FTP75 (City) – EPA HWFET (Highway) – ECE (European) – Steady State: 30, 45, 60 and 75 MPH • Vehicle performance (sec.) – 0 – 10 MPH – 0 – 60 MPH – 30 – 50 MPH – 50 – 70 MPH • Each vehicle: – Baseline – Base engine: weight reduced by 5%, 10% and 20% – Reduced weight and engine downsized to match the baseline vehicle performance
  • 17. Weight Reduction vs. Fuel Economy % Fuel Economy Improvement CI Engine Results W/ Secondary 12.0 % Downsize Engines 6.5 % 3.5 % Base Engines % Weight Reduction
  • 18. Weight Reduction vs. Fuel Economy Fuel Economy Improvement / 10% Weight Reduction (EPA Combined Drive Cycle) Passenger Vehicle Truck Base Downsized Base Downsized Engine Engine Engine Engine Gasoline 3.3% 6.5% 3.5% 4.7% Diesel 3.9% 6.3% 3.6% 4.6% Fuel economy impact of weight reduction – Similar for gasoline and diesel vehicles Truck engines – Downsized to a lesser degree – maintain loaded performance – Vehicles rated to tow a trailer benefit the least
  • 19.
  • 20. PEV/PHEV Study Criteria • Vehicles – Small car – BMW Mini Small SUV – Saturn Vue • Performance Range: 40 / 80 miles Acceleration: 10 sec. 0-60 MPH, FTP75 Top speed: 100 MPH Note: PHEV, operates on batteries only, carries mass of ICE engine and associated “support systems”
  • 21. Simulation Assumptions • Rolling and Aero Resistance – Baseline Vehicles No secondary loads – steering, HVAC, etc. No additional structure to support battery (51 – 209 Kg) • Battery – Lithium-Ion, Sized for Range SOC 0.9-0.25, 115 W-h/kg, 155 W-h/l • Motor - Sized For Performance (FTP75, 0-60 time) top speed 3.05 kW/kg motor power density • Regenerative Braking @1000N, Throttle = 0 • Final Drive Ratio - Fixed
  • 22. Weight Distribution of a Mid-Sized “Aluminum” Car Assembly Electrical 2% 3% Intgerior 12% Chassis Powertrain 14% 48% Body Other 6% Closures 4% BIW 11% Avg. Weight = 1270 Kg
  • 23. Vehicle Weight Analysis Small Car Base (Steel) 1,304 Kg - Powertrain system (571) Kg + Hybrid charging 348 + e Powertrain 124 (99) HEV (Steel) 1,205 Kg - Hybrid charging (348) - Structure design (PT) (52) - Light Weighting (AIV) (147) (12%) - e Powertrain (36) (583) EV Light Weight (Al) 622 Kg
  • 24. Vehicle Weight Analysis Small Car EV Weight Reduction with Aluminum : BIW 96 KG reduction Closures 28 Chassis 23 Total 147 KG * * 19% of EV (622 Kg) final weight !
  • 25. Small Car – Energy Usage PHEV (Fe): 1205 kg [Regen = 20.9%] Note: Gasoline: (typ.) >60% Schedule (FTP75)
  • 26. EV Mass vs. Energy Consumption 1.3 KWh/100 Mi per 100 Kg Vehicle Mass (Kg) 26
  • 27. PEV (PHEV) Study Findings • 10% Mass Reduction: 4 – 6% reduction in battery size • Low Mass Aluminum Structure Achieves – Weight reduction potential: 147 Kg (19%) • Reduce battery cost: $ 900 – $ 1,950 (@ $750/KWh) • Expected aluminum structure cost premium : $ 630 • Net cost savings = $775 – Reduced energy consumption: 1.3 KWh / 100 Mi per 100 Kg 27
  • 28. Regenerative Braking PEV/PHEV • Impact of regenerative braking • Effect of weight reduction on benefit
  • 29. Regenerative Braking Small Car
  • 30. Small Car – Energy Usage PHEV (Fe): 1205 kg PHEV (Al): 1031 kg [Regen = 20.9%] [Regen = 20%] PEV (Fe): 781 kg PEV (Al): 627 kg [Regen = 18.1%] [Regen = 15.6%]
  • 31. PEV (PHEV) Study Findings • Regenerative Braking – Recycles 15 – 20% of FTP75 drive cycle energy – Impact (%) essentially independent of vehicles mass 31
  • 32. Automotive Aluminum Life Cycle Mass Better Fuel Reduction Economy Infinitely Reduced Recyclable Emissions Enhanced Performance Improved Safety
  • 33. Comparative Life Cycle Assessment • Life cycle analysis (LCA) study conducted by the “Magnesium Front End Research and Development” – Sponsorship: Canada, China and U.S. – Environmental performance of: • 2007 Cadillac CTS front end – steel design • new magnesium and aluminum designs • Environmental impacts – Total energy – Greenhouse gases emissions – Air pollutants Source: SAE 2010-01-0275, Magnesium Front End Research and Development Project 33
  • 34. Less Life Cycle Emissions 34 Source: Magnesium Front End Research and Development Project
  • 35. Emissions Over Vehicle Lifetime Lifetime Emissions Output Lifetime Energy Consumed Steel Magnesium Aluminum Source: Magnesium Front End Research and Development Project 35
  • 36. Life Cycle Study • Use Phase dominates Life Cycle (Energy / Emissions) – Weight reduction • Energy Consumption / Emissions – Magnesium 15% savings – Aluminum 20% savings • Aluminum – “Best lifetime performance for overall energy use and greenhouse gas emissions” To purchase a full copy of the study (SAE 2010-01-0275), visit the World Congress Technical Papers Store on the SAE website at: www.sae.org For additional life cycle data on aluminum in transport go the Aluminum Automotive Industry website http://transport.world-aluminium.org/facts/life-cycle-data/ 36
  • 37. Automotive Aluminum Forecast The Value Proposition
  • 38. Auto Fuel Economy Objectives 2010-2020 • Achieve reasonable return on investment • CAFE: +10 MPG (+40%) • Continuous Improvement – Vehicle utility – size, range, performance – Safety – Reliability – Customer satisfaction – Affordability – Emissions • Constraints – Engineering resources – Product life cycle (8 – 10 years) – Manufacturing resources – Investment capital
  • 39. CAFE (MPG) 19 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 75 19 77 19 79 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 Weight 01 20 CAFE Trends 03 FE Actual 20 05 20 07 20 09 20 11 20 13 20 15 20 CAFE Standard 17 20 19 Fuel Economy History 35.5 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 Vehicle Weight (Lbs)
  • 40. FE Technology Assessment (2010) (National Academy of Science - July 2010) Technology FE Cost ($/ $ / % FE Imp. Veh.) Imp. Engine Conv. Eng Improvements 7% $ 700 $ 100 Conv. Downsize, Turbo 5% $ 650 - 950 $ 160 Diesel Engine 25 % $ 3,000 - 4,500 $ 170 Gas Electric Hybrid 35 % $ 4,500 – 6,500 $ 160 Electric Hybrid (Plug-in) ??? $13,000 – 23,000 Electric ??? NA Fuel Cell NA NA Vehicle * Cost estimate Weight reduction (10%) 7% * $ 800-1,600 $ 170 does not include savings from Aero 2% $ 70 $ 50 secondary Brakes 1% --- component weight Tires 2% $ 50 $ 25 optimization Transmission 3% $ 30 $ 10 Accessories 2% $ 100 $ 50
  • 41. Body Holds the Largest Weight Reduction Opportunity •Shift to aluminum saves 12,000 550 lbs direct and 10,000 Currently Aluminum secondary weight Aluminum Opportunity KMT Aluminum 8,000 •10% better fuel economy 6,000 •No compromise to safety 4,000 •No downsizing required 2,000 •Better performance 0 •Lower lifetime CO2 41
  • 42. Weight Reduction Potential with Aluminum MID-SIZE CAR EXAMPLE Cost Multi material body: Al Weight Wt. Reduction Impact AL Sheet 330 Lbs BIW 320 Lbs 280 Lbs $ 455 Al Extrusion 60 Al Castings 30 Closures 115 Lbs 70 Lbs $ 150 Steel Sheet 50 Structures 45 Lbs 50 Lbs $ 160 HSLA Sheet 10 Total 480 Lbs 380 Lbs $ 765 (Direct) Optimization (50 Lbs) 170 Lbs ($ 665) (In-direct) $ 0.18 Per Lb Net 430 Lbs 550 Lbs $ 100 Weight Reduction 15% Weight Reduction 42
  • 43. Cost Estimates Related to Mass NHTSA • NAS report - $1.50 per pound • Sierra Research - $1.01 per pound (w/secondary) • MIT - $1.36 per pound Applying an ICM factor of 1.11 (low complexity technology), results in a compliance cost of $1.48 per pound. Based on current assumptions and recent studies, we’ve found costs ranging far below that average.
  • 44. Down Weighting Creates Value for Alternative Powertrains Percent Increase in MPG Cost per 1 MPG Increase 60.0% $300 50.0% $250 40.0% $200 30.0% $150 20.0% $100 10.0% $50 0.0% $0 Baseline Diesel Hybrid Baseline Diesel Hybrid Steel Body Aluminum Body Steel Body Aluminum Body 44 Source: IBIS Associates
  • 45. Weight Savings Translate to Fuel Economy Improvement Mass of Body-in-White Fuel Economy Improvement 400 3 350 2.7 MPG 2.5 Improvement 300 Miles per Gallon Kilograms 250 2 200 1.5 150 1 100 0.5 50 0 0 Steel (baseline) High Strength Aluminum Steel (baseline- High Strength Aluminum Steel Intensive Intensive 30 mpg) Steel Intensive Intensive Source: ika - University of Aachen and the European Aluminium Source: Aluminum Association calculated based on ika mass Association (EAA) reduction data; assumes 23% secondary weight savings 45
  • 46. 40% (10 MPG) Fuel Economy Improvement by 2020 • No single dominant technology • Aggressive application: most know practical technologies • Technology estimate: (% Improvement) – Engine (Conventional, diesel, hybrid) 50 % (5 MPG) – Vehicle (Tires, Aero, Transmission, …) 25 % (2.5 MPG) – Weight (Aluminum, Magnesium, HSS) 25 % (2.5 MPG) • Vehicle downsizing 50 % • Component optimization 35 % • Full AIV (10+%) 15 % • Aluminum 2020 – 394 Lb Average (+60 Lbs) – realistic • sheet, extrusion, casting • +1.0 MPG Fleet 46
  • 47. Automotive Weight Reduction Summary • One pound of aluminum replaces two pounds of Fe /Steel – Can allow additional indirect reduction up to 0.5 Lbs • 10% vehicle weight reduction: 6.5% fuel economy improvement • Weight reduction additive to other fuel economy improvements – Including: Diesel, Hybrid, Electric, Aero, Tires, … • Proven aluminum components can achieve 15% avg. weight reduction – 10 % MPG improvement (2.7 MPG) • Weight reduction with aluminum cost competitive with other fuel economy technologies