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Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and
investment
A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit
1© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016
Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment
Contents
About the research 2
Executive summary 3
Chapter 1: Trade and investment 4
Chapter 2: Aviation and logistics 8
Chapter 3: Agricultural trade and food security 10
Conclusion13
2 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016
Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment
About the
research
Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment is an
Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) report, commissioned by
Dubai Chamber. It examines the current trade and investment
relationship between the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC)
countries and Latin America, mapping out engagement in key
sectors and opportunities for Gulf investors. The findings are
based on desk research and interviews with experts, conducted
by The EIU.
The EIU would like to thank the following experts (listed
alphabetically) for their insights:
l Mariano Bosch, chief executive officer and co-founder,
Adecoagro
l Roberto Dunn, executive director, Consorcio Nobis
l Daniel Melham, president, Gulf Latin America Leaders
Council
l Youssef Hegazy, senior vice president, business
development, Hassad Food
l Hector Olea, president and chief executive officer, Gauss
Energia
l Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, chairman, DP World
The EIU bears sole responsibility for the content of this
report. The findings and views expressed in the report do not
necessarily reflect the views of the sponsor. Iain Douglas and
Emma Redman authored the report. Melanie Noronha was the
editor.
3© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016
Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment
Executive
summary
The relationship between the countries of the Gulf Co-
operation Council (GCC) and Latin America has thus far
been characterised by modest trade and investment
flows. But a deeper investigation reveals that the two
regions rely on each other for essential products, such
as food and agricultural produce from Latin America
and hydrocarbons and fertiliser from the GCC. Both
regions are keen to explore deeper relationships to
diversify their trade and investment partners and
hedge risks amid global economic uncertainties. This
report takes a closer look at the nuances in the trade
and investment relationships between GCC and Latin
American countries, with a focus on aviation, logistics
and agriculture and the role Latin America plays in the
GCC’s food-security strategy.
The key findings of the report are as follows:
Agriculture dominates exports from Latin America
to the GCC, accounting for 57% of total exports
to the region, but the GCC is more reliant on some
countries than on others. Brazil is by far the largest
trading partner for the GCC countries, followed by
Argentina and Mexico. Among the Latin American
states, the GCC relies on Brazil for meat (mainly
poultry), Argentina for cereals, Mexico for vehicles
and Chile for wood products.
Opportunities for the GCC to diversify sources of
food and other products are available within Latin
America. Although trade with Brazil accounts for
the majority of trade between Latin America and
the GCC, there is room for diversification. Poultry,
mainly sourced from Brazil, can be imported in higher
volumes from Argentina as well, and Paraguay,
Uruguay and Chile have developed agro-industries
that could offer opportunities for diversification.
Expanding air links will facilitate direct business
connections between the Gulf and Latin America,
while also allowing the latter to forge closer
associations with commercial partners in Asia. Gulf
airlines currently fly directly to three destinations in
Latin America: SĂŁo Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Buenos
Aires. Recently developed code-sharing agreements
between Gulf and Latin American airlines, which allow
passengers to make reservations on local and Gulf
airlines in a single transaction, enhance connectivity
beyond these three destinations. Furthermore, the
Gulf is well placed to connect Latin America with other
parts of Asia, particularly China, a key commercial
partner of the region.
Beyond aviation, logistics and agriculture, there
are opportunities for increased engagement in
industry and banking. Experts suggest that Latin
American businesses can set up industrial facilities
in the Gulf region to process raw materials sourced
from their home countries, such as iron ore. This will
reduce the distance between production facilities
and end consumers in Asia and Europe, resulting in
a substantial reduction in transport costs for Latin
American firms. An increase in commercial activity
between the two regions would motivate more Latin
American banks to establish in the Gulf, and vice
versa.
4 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016
Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment
Trade and investment
1
Until recently, the GCC countries have played only
a limited role in Latin America, largely because
of the distance between the two regions. During
the oil boom in the 1970s Gulf investors were
exposed to the Latin American market only
indirectly, through their investments in Western
banks that were lending heavily to Latin America.
This changed during the second oil boom in the
mid-2000s, with Gulf investors investing directly
in Latin America, particularly after the 2008
financial crisis, which catalysed efforts to seek
greater diversification in emerging markets.
Historically, trade flows have also been relatively
low, accounting for only 1% of GCC exports and
2% of imports. However, these low volumes mask
the fact that the regions rely on each other for
essential goods. Trade flows have been growing
in recent years, driven in particular by Latin
America’s demand for energy and the demand for
food in the GCC countries.
GCC imports from Latin America are dominated
by food products, which accounted for 57%
of Latin America’s total exports to the GCC in
Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS).
GCC trade with Latin America, 2006-2015
(US$ bn)
Figure 1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Imports to the GCCExports from the GCC
2015201420132012201120102009200820072006
5© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016
Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment
2015. But the trade relationship extends beyond
this, to include trade in minerals, vehicles
and machinery. And within the region, the
GCC is more reliant on some countries than on
others. Brazil is the GCC’s predominant trading
partner in Latin America. IMF data show that in
2015 Brazil was the source of 77% of the GCC’s
imports (worth US$11bn) from the region,
and that it received 65% of the GCC’s exports
(worth US$5.6bn) to Latin America. The large
volume of food imports from Brazil is partly
a result of the efforts of the extremely active
Arab Brazilian Chamber of Commerce (CĂąmara
de Comércio Árabe-Brasileira, or CCAB). The
GCC also relies almost exclusively on Brazil for
minerals. For other products, ranging from
machinery to wood, the GCC turns to other Latin
American countries. Argentina and Mexico are
Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS).
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
GCC importsGCC exports
Others
Ecuador
Chile
Mexico
Argentina
Brazil
Figure 2
GCC’s top trading partners in Latin America, 2015
(US$ m)
GCC trade with Latin America, 2015
(US$ m)
Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS).
0 500 1,000 1,500,, 2000 2500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500
Imports from Latin AmericaExports to Latin America
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Oman
Qatar
Kuwait
Bahrain
Figure 3
6 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016
Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment
the next most-important trading partners,
supplying the GCC with cereals and iron and steel
products (Argentina) and vehicles and electrical
machinery (Mexico).
The bulk of GCC exports to Latin America consists
of oil (mainly from Saudi Arabia), liquefied
natural gas (from Qatar), and fertilisers.
Investing in relationships
Investment ties are stronger with some Latin
American countries than others, facilitated
by direct air links and growing diplomatic
exchanges, including the opening of embassies
and government visits at the highest level in
both directions. In July 2016 Sheikh Tamim
bin Hamad Al Thani, the Emir of Qatar, visited
Argentina and Colombia, and in January 2016
Enrique Peña Nieto, the Mexican president,
visited Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
In 2014 HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al
Maktoum, the UAE’s Vice President and Prime
A nuanced approach: What does the GCC import from its top trading partners in Latin America?
Figure 4
Note: Top 5 goods imported in 2014, in order of value (UAE breakdown for 2015 not available).
Source: UN Comtrade 2014.
Ecuador
Fruit and
nuts
Plants Sugars
and
confectionary
Seafood Fruit and
vegetable
products
Meat Ores and
slag
Chemicals Cereals
Brazil
Sugars
and
confectionary
Wood
products
Fruit Precious
stones
Dairy
produce
Wood
products
Fruit Precious
stones
Dairy
produce
Chile
Seafood
Cereals Iron and
steel
products
Grains
and
seeds
Meat
Argentina
Dairy
produce
Vehicles Electrical
equipment
Machinery Irons and
steel
products
Medical
and optical
equipment
Mexico
7© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016
Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment
Minister and Ruler of Dubai, visited Mexico,
Brazil, Argentina and Chile. Daniel Melham,
president of the Gulf Latin America Leaders
Council, noted that when he started visiting the
GCC a decade ago, “there was interest in Brazil
and Argentina, but very little knowledge of other
countries and concerns about drug violence and
insurgencies in some of them. However, these
smaller countries have now begun opening
embassies and investment promotion offices in
the GCC.”
The Summit of South American-Arab Countries
(ASPA), a gathering of heads of state initiated
by Brazil in 2005 and in subsequent years hosted
by Qatar (2009), Peru (2012) and Saudi Arabia
(2015), has facilitated deeper engagement.
These meetings have sparked a wide range
of initiatives for co-operation across many
levels. One initiative was an effort to forge a
free-trade agreement (FTA) between Mercosur—
the Southern Common Market consisting of
Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and
Venezuela—and Arab states. Although Mercosur
did conclude FTAs with Egypt, Palestine and
Lebanon, negotiations with the GCC, which
started in 2006, have not made much progress
(possibly on account of concerns regarding
subsidies to the petrochemicals sector).1
One of the barriers to greater investment flows
is the limited number of investment treaties
between the regions. According to the database
of the UN Conference on Trade and Development
(UNCTAD),2
only three bilateral investment
treaties are in force: Mexico with Bahrain,
Mexico with Kuwait, and Costa Rica with Qatar.
Other agreements have been signed but have
not yet entered into force, including a Mexico-
UAE and a Panama-Qatar agreement as well as
a broader framework agreement between Peru
and the entire GCC. Interestingly, there are no
agreements with Brazil or Argentina, the GCC’s
top Latin American trading partners. By contrast,
the GCC states have a much wider network of
bilateral investment treaties with countries in
other regions. Enforcing treaties that have been
signed may provide the requisite push for more
engagement with other states in Latin America.
There are also few double-taxation agreements
(DTAs). Data compiled by UNCTAD up to 2011
list only one DTA with a Latin American country
(Qatar-Panama in 2010) out of over 200
agreements concluded by GCC members up to
that point.3
There has been some progress since
then, with Mexico concluding DTAs with Bahrain,
Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE;4
and the UAE with
Panama and Venezuela. However, so far Brazil
has no DTAs with the GCC, and Argentina has
only recently inked its first, with Qatar, and it is
looking to forge similar agreements with other
Gulf states. An expansion of these agreements
is important as, according to Mr Melham, “high
taxes, particularly in Brazil and Argentina, have
been a huge disincentive that has precluded
greater flows of GCC investment”.
Nonetheless, despite the paucity of bilateral
treaties, there have been considerable
investment flows in recent years. As oil prices
continue to remain low relative to previous
years, Gulf investors are keen to diversify their
investments as they look to rebalance their
portfolios. Some of the greatest engagements
between the two regions can be observed in
aviation, logistics and the agricultural sector. The
next sections explore these in greater depth.
1
http://gulfnews.
com/business/sectors/
investment/brazil-keen-
to-reach-mercosur-free-
trade-agreement-with-
gcc-1.981555
2
UNCTAD, International
Investment Agreements.
3
UNCTAD (2011), Country-
specific Lists of Double
Taxation Treaties.
4
PWC (2016), Worldwide
Tax Summaries: Mexico
- Corporate Withholding
Taxes.
8 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016
Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment
Developing air and sea links has been critical to
the deepening of commercial ties between Gulf
investors and Latin American firms. The sector
in Latin America that has attracted the most
interest from Gulf investors by far is ports and
logistics. In one sense, this may seem surprising,
given its distance from the GCC. In fact, Latin
America was the last major global region to which
direct flight connections from the Gulf were
launched. At the same time, many of the GCC’s
most internationally orientated companies are
active in this sector, and so their interest in Latin
America is part of a broader effort to expand
their global footprint.
Aviation: Growing connectivity
There are currently seven daily direct routes
to Latin America from the Gulf, with plans
for more. Emirates, Dubai’s flagship carrier,
launched the first direct service to SĂŁo Paulo in
2007. In subsequent years, other Gulf carriers
followed suit. Today, three Gulf carriers serve
three destinations in Latin America—Buenos
Aires (Emirates, Qatar Airways), Rio de Janeiro
(Emirates) and SĂŁo Paolo (Emirates, Qatar
Airways and Etihad). Passenger demand appears
to be rising, as Qatar Airways plans to boost
capacity on its routes in December 2016 by
switching to larger 777-300ER planes.5
The flights serve direct links between the
regions—given the growing investment and
commercial ties detailed in this report—as well as
transit flows. Significantly, the Gulf is well placed
geographically to link Latin America with its
largest investor, China. Until the Gulf flights were
launched, travel between Asia and Latin America
required stopovers in Europe or North America.
Journeys via the Gulf now offer the shortest
duration (usually a little over a day), the fewest
stopovers and the most affordable prices.
Given this, it is not surprising that there are plans
to launch direct links to more Latin American
destinations. Qatar Airways has floated a plan
for a route to Chile’s capital Santiago in 2017.
Emirates attempted to launch a route to Panama
in February 2016, but this has been delayed
as a result of difficulties in obtaining approval
from some Latin American governments for
code-sharing arrangements with Panama’s
Copa Airlines (which was intended to link the
Dubai-Panama route to the rest of the region).
Emirates recently announced a code-sharing
partnership with Brazilian airline GOL, which
will allow passengers to book connecting flights
on both airlines using a single reservation, thus
enhancing connectivity from various parts of
Brazil to the Gulf. The programme is expected
to evolve to broaden coverage throughout Latin
America and the Caribbean.
Aviation and logistics2
5
http://www.bq-magazine.
com/industries/aviation-
industries/2016/09/
qatar-airways-to-introduce-
additional-capacity-to-sao-
paulo-buenos-aires
9© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016
Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment
The Gulf airlines are also providing cargo services
to the region, including to some destinations not
served by their passenger routes. Qatar Airways
Cargo serves Mexico and Emirates SkyCargo
serves Mexico, Ecuador and Paraguay. Etihad
Cargo serves Colombia and is also planning an
Ecuador route.
The most significant indicator of the growing
importance of Latin America to the Gulf airlines
has been the acquisition, in September 2016,
by Qatar Airways of a 10% stake in the region’s
largest carrier, LATAM Airlines, based in Chile and
Brazil, for US$613m. Although Qatar Airways was
already linked to LATAM through its membership
of the OneWorld Alliance, its strategy here
mirrors the one it adopted with British Airways,
in which it has gradually built up a 20% stake and
developed closer operational links, including
code-sharing.
Ports and logistics: Building
transatlantic ties
The largest Gulf investor in Latin America is DP
World, the Dubai-based container port operator,
which is estimated to have invested around
US$4bn across Latin America. It currently has
operations in five countries, usually operating
the largest container terminals in each of them
through joint-venture agreements. It entered
the region through acquisitions, first of Caucedo
terminal in the Dominican Republic in 2005 and
then Terminales Rio de la Plata in Argentina,
which it acquired as a result of its takeover of
the UK’s PO. Callao in Peru, opened in 2010,
was its first greenfield terminal in the region,
followed by Embraport near SĂŁo Paulo in 2013.
Most recently, in June 2016, DP World won a 50-
year concession to develop a deep-water port at
Posorja, Ecuador, near the country’s commercial
capital of Guayaquil. Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem,
group chairman and CEO of DP World, explains
that a public-private partnership (PPP) is the
preferred model for the GCC’s large infrastructure
investments in Latin America, as he believes that
“it leverages both sides’ strengths, promotes
sustainable development and long-term action.
By committing for the long term, countries and
companies achieve sustainability and prosper
together.”
However, the region has not been without
problems for DP World, whose operations in
Venezuela’s largest container terminal at Puerto
Cabello were seized by the government, as part of
a broader nationalisation policy, in 2009—which
served as a reminder that political risk in Latin
America can have severe business consequences.
This was a key consideration for Kuwait-based
Agility, the Gulf’s largest logistics company,
as well. While it has operations in every Latin
American country, it only entered Colombia in
2016, in the wake of the political stabilisation
following the ceasefire agreed between the
government and the main leftist rebel group,
the FARC (although this is currently uncertain
following a no vote by a small margin in a
national referendum on the peace agreement).
In addition, a host of smaller, mainly Dubai-
based specialist logistics firms are supplying air
support or shipping services in various parts of
the region, either directly or through partners.
GAC Group is focused on Brazil, which it entered
in 2006, and now offers shipping from eight
locations. It also has partnership arrangements
with local firms in Mexico, Venezuela and
Panama. Two flight-support firms, Jetex and
HADID International Services, also started
operations in the region, notably in Brazil, in
recent years.
10 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016
Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment
With limited arable land and scarce water
resources, the GCC faces challenges regarding
its food security. As a result, the region has been
heavily reliant on food imports, which account
for over 80% of total domestic food consumption.
Climate change and population growth pose
additional threats to the region’s food security,
although The EIU’s 2016 Global Food Security
Index reports marginal improvements in the
overall scores for the GCC countries, ranking
them between 20th and 33rd place out of 113
countries. However, according to some estimates,
as early as 2020 one-fifth of the population in
Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia could be
food-insecure.6
Ensuring access to food was prioritised by GCC
governments following the Arab Spring in 2011.
The social and political turmoil that gripped
large parts of the Middle East and North Africa
disrupted essential food supplies into Gulf ports,
leading to substantial rises in food prices.7
Concerns had already been raised before this
during the 2008 global food crisis. The food
export restrictions that dozens of countries
put in place raised a red flag, triggering plans
to diversify the region’s food sources. These
included the highly publicised and controversial
proposals for investments in land development
in nearby—and often food-insecure—countries
such a Sudan, Pakistan, Kenya, Mauritania
Agricultural trade and food security3
and Indonesia.8
However, few of these plans
materialised in the face of stiff opposition from
local communities.
Some countries in the region have considered
domestic production with sophisticated
techniques, such as hydroponics and greenhouses
run with solar-based desalination, but these are
prohibitively expensive. Qatar experimented with
this, disclosing plans in 2009 to produce up to
70% of food required domestically using these
techniques. However, the target has since been
lowered, and even this is unlikely to be met.9
As a
result, the GCC countries have focused their food
security strategies on managing imports and
diversifying food sources.
As the countries with the largest populations,
Saudi Arabia and the UAE account for about of
80% of agricultural imports to the GCC. These
consist mainly of meat (of which the top five
suppliers are Brazil, Australia, India, France and
Pakistan), cereals (supplied by India, Russia,
Germany, Pakistan and Ukraine), and sugar
(supplied by Brazil, India and China).
The GCC relies heavily on Latin America,
particularly Brazil, for these products. In 2015
Latin America supplied nearly half the meat
imports into the GCC and 36% of the region’s
total sugar imports. It is also an important source
6
Houcine Boughanmi,
Sarath Kodithuwakku and
Jeevika Weerahewa, “Food
and Agricultural Trade in
the GCC: An Opportunity
for South Asia?” Paper
presented at the Asia-
Pacific Trade Economists
Conference, “Trade in the
Asian century - delivering
on the promise of economic
prosperity”, United Nations
Economic and Social
Commission for Asia and the
Pacific (ESCAP), September
22nd-23rd 2014.
7
Rob Bailey with Robin
Willoughby, “Edible Oil:
Food Security in the Gulf”,
Chatham House briefing
paper, Energy, Environment
and Resources series,
November 2013, EER
BP/2013/03.
8
“Arab Food, Water and the
Big Landgrab that Wasn’t”,
The Brown Journal of World
Affairs, Volume XVIII, Issue
1, Fall-Winter 2011.
9
Martin Keulertz and Eckart
Woertz, “States as Actors
in International Agro-
Investments”, in Gironde
Christophe, Christophe
Golay and Peter Messerli
(eds), Large-Scale Land
Acquisitions: Focus on South-
East Asia, International
Development Policy series
No.6, Geneva: Graduate
Institute Publications,
Boston: Brill-Nijhoff.
11© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016
Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment
for other products of animal origin, as well as
coffee, tea and cereals (see figure 5).
As with other commodities, the GCC relies on
different countries in Latin America for different
food and agricultural products. The majority of
agricultural imports are sourced from Brazil and
Argentina. An overwhelming majority of the
meat imports to the GCC are from Brazil (96%
in 2015). This mostly comprises poultry, with
limited imports from Argentina, while bovine
products are mostly imported from Paraguay
and Uruguay. Sugar and sugar confectionary,
another top food import from Latin America, is
also primarily sourced from Brazil. Cereals are
almost exclusively imported from Argentina and
Brazil—nearly two-thirds from Argentina (corn
and barley) and a little over one-third from Brazil
(corn, wheat and rice).
Although the GCC remains one of Latin America’s
smaller customers, capturing only 2.5% of its
total agricultural exports in 2015, it is clear that
Latin America is a vital source of food imports
for the GCC. Agricultural exports grew by 90%
between 2006 and 2015, evidence that Latin
America already plays an important role in the
GCC’s food-security strategy. However, both
regions have the potential to increase their
engagement in this area further—not only
by strengthening their trade ties, but also by
investing in land and food-production facilities.
The GCC is already investing in existing farming
operations in the main markets. Qatari firm Al
Gharrafa Investment has a stake in Adecoagro,
a farming enterprise in Argentina, Brazil
and Uruguay. Similarly, Hassad Food, the
agricultural arm of Qatar’s sovereign wealth
fund, is exploring Brazilian sugar and poultry
assets. However, there is scope to expand these
activities beyond the region’s agricultural
giants. Paraguay, Uruguay and Chile have well-
established agro-industries that could provide
interesting investment opportunities.
Identifying companies to invest in across the
food value chain represents a complex task for
GCC countries. With small markets (apart from
Saudi Arabia, most GCC states have relatively
small populations of under 10m), these countries
cannot benefit from the economies of scale of
Top ten Latin American agricultural products imported by the GCC
(US$ bn)
Source: Data taken from www.trademap.org, accessed on 7th October 2016.
Figure 5
Meat
Share of GCC
imports from
Latin America
Cereals
Sugars and sugar
confectionery
Prepared animal fodder;
Food industry waste
Edible fruit and nuts
Miscellaneous grains,
seeds and fruit;
Coffee, tea, maté
and spices
Dairy produce; birds' eggs;
natural honey
Preparations of seafood
Preparations of vegetables,
fruit, nuts
47%
9%
36%
33%
7%
15%
11%
2%
5%
3%
2,824,930
590,527
570,061
311,220
298,589
259,914
199,150
96,787
76,846
74,731
Note: Product categories from the Harmonised System (HS) developed by the World Customs Organization. Total agricultural exports
comprise the values for chapters 1 to 24 of the HS.
Preparations of vegetables, fruit
Preparations of se
Dairy produce; birds' eggs; natu
Coffee, tea, maté and
Miscellaneous grains, seeds and
Edible fruit and
Prepared animal fodder; Fo
Sugars and sugar confecti
C
12 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016
Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment
large farming operations in Latin America. As
Youssef Hegazy, senior vice president for business
development at Hassad Food, explains: “Qatar is
a very small market, while most of the businesses
in the agriculture sector that are commercially
viable are quite large.” As a result, firms in the
region are investing in companies higher up
the value chain as part of a broader investment
strategy, with a secondary focus on food security
for their country. Mr Hegazy notes: “When
your primary strategy is food security, then
you suffer if you are a small market or a small
investor, but when you focus on commercially
viable businesses, then food security becomes
a by-product.” Another hurdle to investment is
that many Latin American businesses in the food
sector are family-owned, with opaque structures
that make it difficult to assess opportunities and
conduct the necessary due diligence.
Ancillary investments in Latin American
port and road infrastructure may also play a
role in facilitating a seamless supply of food
to the region. Mr Bin Sulayem of DP World
asserts that they have “been working in some
markets—Buenos Aires, for example—to
strengthen shipping connectivity with the Gulf,
which would not only facilitate trade but also
potentially address [food security] concerns”.
Roberto Dunn, executive director of Ecuadorian
business conglomerate Consorcio Nobis,
echoes this sentiment: “The new Posorja port
will undoubtedly lead to a dramatic expansion
of potential markets for Ecuador’s bananas,
including the Middle East. As a deep-water port,
it will offer direct shipping-line connectivity and
will halve transit times by avoiding intermediate
ports such as Buenaventura or Panama, or even
Callao.”
13© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016
Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment
Growing air and seaport links form the bedrock
for increased engagement between the two
regions. They can facilitate greater movement
of goods and people to expand commercial
opportunities, which will be vital for investors
and businesses in both regions as they search
for pockets of growth and new markets for their
products in the face of a difficult global economic
outlook.
Beyond engagement in aviation, logistics
and agriculture, GCC firms are involved in
Latin America’s industrial sector as well. Abu
Dhabi fund IPIC has exposure to a number of
petrochemical plants across Latin America
through its stakes in two European firms,
CEPSA (oil and gas, headquartered in Spain)
and Borealis (polyethylene and polypropylene,
headquartered in Austria). In 2009 Dubai’s
state-owned aluminium firm Dubal bought 19%
of Companhia de Alumina do ParĂĄ, a subsidiary of
Brazilian mining firm Vale.
At the same time, there are opportunities for
Latin American businesses to set up production
facilities in the Gulf region to process products
closer to their final destinations in Asia and
Europe. Vale has set up a steel pellet plant
in Oman, which sources raw materials from
Brazil and exports the processed product
to construction firms in China and India,
Conclusion
substantially reducing the distance between the
place of production and the consumer. “The way
to move forward is for Latin American companies
to establish themselves in the GCC, where they
are closer to large consumers,” says Mr Melham of
the Gulf Latin America Leaders Council.
If commercial links are to increase, opportunities
will arise in banking as well. Two early moves
in financial services include Qatar Investment
Authority’s purchase of a 5% stake in Banco
Santander Brazil for US$2.7bn in 2009 and Abu
Dhabi Investment Council’s investment in BTG
Pactual, Brazil’s most prominent investment
bank, in 2010. Brazilian banks Banco do Brasil
and ItaĂș have a presence in Dubai, but according
to Mr Melham, “there are no Mexican, Chilean, or
Panamanian banks. It is important to get closer
to new markets and to have offices that not only
represent the banks themselves but also their
clients, who could produce in those countries.”
Crucially for potential investors, when
considering Latin America for trade or
investment, it is important to note that it is a
heterogeneous bloc, with distinct geographical
sub-regions. At the same time, the region has
different groups with clearly differentiated
trading strategies. While the Pacific Alliance
countries (Peru, Colombia, Chile and Mexico) are
strongly in favour of free trade and seek to open
14 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016
Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment
up their markets, the five Mercosur members have
favoured a more protectionist approach in the
past (although there are signs this is changing
now). These differences must be taken into
account by the GCC in order to develop a more
nuanced trade and investment agenda in Latin
America. While much more needs to be done
to boost awareness and information about the
potential benefits of deeper links between the
GCC and Latin America, particularly beyond Brazil
and Argentina, this region undoubtedly offers
great diversity of food sources and opportunities
for investments across sectors.
While every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy
of this information, The Economist Intelligence Unit
Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability
for reliance by any person on this report or any of
the information, opinions or conclusions set out
in this report.
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E-mail: london@eiu.com
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New York, NY 10017, US
Tel: (1.212) 554 0600
Fax: (1.212) 586 0248
E-mail: newyork@eiu.com
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12 Taikoo Wan Road
Taikoo Shing
Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 2585 3888
Fax: (852) 2802 7638
E-mail: hongkong@eiu.com
GENEVA
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1206 Geneva
Switzerland
Tel: (41) 22 566 2470
Fax: (41) 22 346 9347
E-mail: geneva@eiu.com
DUBAI
Office 1301a
Aurora Tower
PO Box 450056
Dubai Media City
Dubai
United Arab Emirates
Tel: (971) 4 433 4208
Fax: (971) 4 438 0224
E-mail: kaywestmoreland@economist.com

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Whitepaper: Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC

  • 1. Sponsored by Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit
  • 2. 1© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016 Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment Contents About the research 2 Executive summary 3 Chapter 1: Trade and investment 4 Chapter 2: Aviation and logistics 8 Chapter 3: Agricultural trade and food security 10 Conclusion13
  • 3. 2 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016 Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment About the research Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment is an Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) report, commissioned by Dubai Chamber. It examines the current trade and investment relationship between the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries and Latin America, mapping out engagement in key sectors and opportunities for Gulf investors. The findings are based on desk research and interviews with experts, conducted by The EIU. The EIU would like to thank the following experts (listed alphabetically) for their insights: l Mariano Bosch, chief executive officer and co-founder, Adecoagro l Roberto Dunn, executive director, Consorcio Nobis l Daniel Melham, president, Gulf Latin America Leaders Council l Youssef Hegazy, senior vice president, business development, Hassad Food l Hector Olea, president and chief executive officer, Gauss Energia l Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, chairman, DP World The EIU bears sole responsibility for the content of this report. The findings and views expressed in the report do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsor. Iain Douglas and Emma Redman authored the report. Melanie Noronha was the editor.
  • 4. 3© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016 Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment Executive summary The relationship between the countries of the Gulf Co- operation Council (GCC) and Latin America has thus far been characterised by modest trade and investment flows. But a deeper investigation reveals that the two regions rely on each other for essential products, such as food and agricultural produce from Latin America and hydrocarbons and fertiliser from the GCC. Both regions are keen to explore deeper relationships to diversify their trade and investment partners and hedge risks amid global economic uncertainties. This report takes a closer look at the nuances in the trade and investment relationships between GCC and Latin American countries, with a focus on aviation, logistics and agriculture and the role Latin America plays in the GCC’s food-security strategy. The key findings of the report are as follows: Agriculture dominates exports from Latin America to the GCC, accounting for 57% of total exports to the region, but the GCC is more reliant on some countries than on others. Brazil is by far the largest trading partner for the GCC countries, followed by Argentina and Mexico. Among the Latin American states, the GCC relies on Brazil for meat (mainly poultry), Argentina for cereals, Mexico for vehicles and Chile for wood products. Opportunities for the GCC to diversify sources of food and other products are available within Latin America. Although trade with Brazil accounts for the majority of trade between Latin America and the GCC, there is room for diversification. Poultry, mainly sourced from Brazil, can be imported in higher volumes from Argentina as well, and Paraguay, Uruguay and Chile have developed agro-industries that could offer opportunities for diversification. Expanding air links will facilitate direct business connections between the Gulf and Latin America, while also allowing the latter to forge closer associations with commercial partners in Asia. Gulf airlines currently fly directly to three destinations in Latin America: SĂŁo Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Buenos Aires. Recently developed code-sharing agreements between Gulf and Latin American airlines, which allow passengers to make reservations on local and Gulf airlines in a single transaction, enhance connectivity beyond these three destinations. Furthermore, the Gulf is well placed to connect Latin America with other parts of Asia, particularly China, a key commercial partner of the region. Beyond aviation, logistics and agriculture, there are opportunities for increased engagement in industry and banking. Experts suggest that Latin American businesses can set up industrial facilities in the Gulf region to process raw materials sourced from their home countries, such as iron ore. This will reduce the distance between production facilities and end consumers in Asia and Europe, resulting in a substantial reduction in transport costs for Latin American firms. An increase in commercial activity between the two regions would motivate more Latin American banks to establish in the Gulf, and vice versa.
  • 5. 4 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016 Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment Trade and investment 1 Until recently, the GCC countries have played only a limited role in Latin America, largely because of the distance between the two regions. During the oil boom in the 1970s Gulf investors were exposed to the Latin American market only indirectly, through their investments in Western banks that were lending heavily to Latin America. This changed during the second oil boom in the mid-2000s, with Gulf investors investing directly in Latin America, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis, which catalysed efforts to seek greater diversification in emerging markets. Historically, trade flows have also been relatively low, accounting for only 1% of GCC exports and 2% of imports. However, these low volumes mask the fact that the regions rely on each other for essential goods. Trade flows have been growing in recent years, driven in particular by Latin America’s demand for energy and the demand for food in the GCC countries. GCC imports from Latin America are dominated by food products, which accounted for 57% of Latin America’s total exports to the GCC in Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS). GCC trade with Latin America, 2006-2015 (US$ bn) Figure 1 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Imports to the GCCExports from the GCC 2015201420132012201120102009200820072006
  • 6. 5© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016 Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment 2015. But the trade relationship extends beyond this, to include trade in minerals, vehicles and machinery. And within the region, the GCC is more reliant on some countries than on others. Brazil is the GCC’s predominant trading partner in Latin America. IMF data show that in 2015 Brazil was the source of 77% of the GCC’s imports (worth US$11bn) from the region, and that it received 65% of the GCC’s exports (worth US$5.6bn) to Latin America. The large volume of food imports from Brazil is partly a result of the efforts of the extremely active Arab Brazilian Chamber of Commerce (CĂąmara de ComĂ©rcio Árabe-Brasileira, or CCAB). The GCC also relies almost exclusively on Brazil for minerals. For other products, ranging from machinery to wood, the GCC turns to other Latin American countries. Argentina and Mexico are Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS). 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 GCC importsGCC exports Others Ecuador Chile Mexico Argentina Brazil Figure 2 GCC’s top trading partners in Latin America, 2015 (US$ m) GCC trade with Latin America, 2015 (US$ m) Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS). 0 500 1,000 1,500,, 2000 2500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 Imports from Latin AmericaExports to Latin America Saudi Arabia UAE Oman Qatar Kuwait Bahrain Figure 3
  • 7. 6 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016 Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment the next most-important trading partners, supplying the GCC with cereals and iron and steel products (Argentina) and vehicles and electrical machinery (Mexico). The bulk of GCC exports to Latin America consists of oil (mainly from Saudi Arabia), liquefied natural gas (from Qatar), and fertilisers. Investing in relationships Investment ties are stronger with some Latin American countries than others, facilitated by direct air links and growing diplomatic exchanges, including the opening of embassies and government visits at the highest level in both directions. In July 2016 Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Emir of Qatar, visited Argentina and Colombia, and in January 2016 Enrique Peña Nieto, the Mexican president, visited Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In 2014 HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the UAE’s Vice President and Prime A nuanced approach: What does the GCC import from its top trading partners in Latin America? Figure 4 Note: Top 5 goods imported in 2014, in order of value (UAE breakdown for 2015 not available). Source: UN Comtrade 2014. Ecuador Fruit and nuts Plants Sugars and confectionary Seafood Fruit and vegetable products Meat Ores and slag Chemicals Cereals Brazil Sugars and confectionary Wood products Fruit Precious stones Dairy produce Wood products Fruit Precious stones Dairy produce Chile Seafood Cereals Iron and steel products Grains and seeds Meat Argentina Dairy produce Vehicles Electrical equipment Machinery Irons and steel products Medical and optical equipment Mexico
  • 8. 7© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016 Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment Minister and Ruler of Dubai, visited Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and Chile. Daniel Melham, president of the Gulf Latin America Leaders Council, noted that when he started visiting the GCC a decade ago, “there was interest in Brazil and Argentina, but very little knowledge of other countries and concerns about drug violence and insurgencies in some of them. However, these smaller countries have now begun opening embassies and investment promotion offices in the GCC.” The Summit of South American-Arab Countries (ASPA), a gathering of heads of state initiated by Brazil in 2005 and in subsequent years hosted by Qatar (2009), Peru (2012) and Saudi Arabia (2015), has facilitated deeper engagement. These meetings have sparked a wide range of initiatives for co-operation across many levels. One initiative was an effort to forge a free-trade agreement (FTA) between Mercosur— the Southern Common Market consisting of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela—and Arab states. Although Mercosur did conclude FTAs with Egypt, Palestine and Lebanon, negotiations with the GCC, which started in 2006, have not made much progress (possibly on account of concerns regarding subsidies to the petrochemicals sector).1 One of the barriers to greater investment flows is the limited number of investment treaties between the regions. According to the database of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD),2 only three bilateral investment treaties are in force: Mexico with Bahrain, Mexico with Kuwait, and Costa Rica with Qatar. Other agreements have been signed but have not yet entered into force, including a Mexico- UAE and a Panama-Qatar agreement as well as a broader framework agreement between Peru and the entire GCC. Interestingly, there are no agreements with Brazil or Argentina, the GCC’s top Latin American trading partners. By contrast, the GCC states have a much wider network of bilateral investment treaties with countries in other regions. Enforcing treaties that have been signed may provide the requisite push for more engagement with other states in Latin America. There are also few double-taxation agreements (DTAs). Data compiled by UNCTAD up to 2011 list only one DTA with a Latin American country (Qatar-Panama in 2010) out of over 200 agreements concluded by GCC members up to that point.3 There has been some progress since then, with Mexico concluding DTAs with Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE;4 and the UAE with Panama and Venezuela. However, so far Brazil has no DTAs with the GCC, and Argentina has only recently inked its first, with Qatar, and it is looking to forge similar agreements with other Gulf states. An expansion of these agreements is important as, according to Mr Melham, “high taxes, particularly in Brazil and Argentina, have been a huge disincentive that has precluded greater flows of GCC investment”. Nonetheless, despite the paucity of bilateral treaties, there have been considerable investment flows in recent years. As oil prices continue to remain low relative to previous years, Gulf investors are keen to diversify their investments as they look to rebalance their portfolios. Some of the greatest engagements between the two regions can be observed in aviation, logistics and the agricultural sector. The next sections explore these in greater depth. 1 http://gulfnews. com/business/sectors/ investment/brazil-keen- to-reach-mercosur-free- trade-agreement-with- gcc-1.981555 2 UNCTAD, International Investment Agreements. 3 UNCTAD (2011), Country- specific Lists of Double Taxation Treaties. 4 PWC (2016), Worldwide Tax Summaries: Mexico - Corporate Withholding Taxes.
  • 9. 8 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016 Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment Developing air and sea links has been critical to the deepening of commercial ties between Gulf investors and Latin American firms. The sector in Latin America that has attracted the most interest from Gulf investors by far is ports and logistics. In one sense, this may seem surprising, given its distance from the GCC. In fact, Latin America was the last major global region to which direct flight connections from the Gulf were launched. At the same time, many of the GCC’s most internationally orientated companies are active in this sector, and so their interest in Latin America is part of a broader effort to expand their global footprint. Aviation: Growing connectivity There are currently seven daily direct routes to Latin America from the Gulf, with plans for more. Emirates, Dubai’s flagship carrier, launched the first direct service to SĂŁo Paulo in 2007. In subsequent years, other Gulf carriers followed suit. Today, three Gulf carriers serve three destinations in Latin America—Buenos Aires (Emirates, Qatar Airways), Rio de Janeiro (Emirates) and SĂŁo Paolo (Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad). Passenger demand appears to be rising, as Qatar Airways plans to boost capacity on its routes in December 2016 by switching to larger 777-300ER planes.5 The flights serve direct links between the regions—given the growing investment and commercial ties detailed in this report—as well as transit flows. Significantly, the Gulf is well placed geographically to link Latin America with its largest investor, China. Until the Gulf flights were launched, travel between Asia and Latin America required stopovers in Europe or North America. Journeys via the Gulf now offer the shortest duration (usually a little over a day), the fewest stopovers and the most affordable prices. Given this, it is not surprising that there are plans to launch direct links to more Latin American destinations. Qatar Airways has floated a plan for a route to Chile’s capital Santiago in 2017. Emirates attempted to launch a route to Panama in February 2016, but this has been delayed as a result of difficulties in obtaining approval from some Latin American governments for code-sharing arrangements with Panama’s Copa Airlines (which was intended to link the Dubai-Panama route to the rest of the region). Emirates recently announced a code-sharing partnership with Brazilian airline GOL, which will allow passengers to book connecting flights on both airlines using a single reservation, thus enhancing connectivity from various parts of Brazil to the Gulf. The programme is expected to evolve to broaden coverage throughout Latin America and the Caribbean. Aviation and logistics2 5 http://www.bq-magazine. com/industries/aviation- industries/2016/09/ qatar-airways-to-introduce- additional-capacity-to-sao- paulo-buenos-aires
  • 10. 9© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016 Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment The Gulf airlines are also providing cargo services to the region, including to some destinations not served by their passenger routes. Qatar Airways Cargo serves Mexico and Emirates SkyCargo serves Mexico, Ecuador and Paraguay. Etihad Cargo serves Colombia and is also planning an Ecuador route. The most significant indicator of the growing importance of Latin America to the Gulf airlines has been the acquisition, in September 2016, by Qatar Airways of a 10% stake in the region’s largest carrier, LATAM Airlines, based in Chile and Brazil, for US$613m. Although Qatar Airways was already linked to LATAM through its membership of the OneWorld Alliance, its strategy here mirrors the one it adopted with British Airways, in which it has gradually built up a 20% stake and developed closer operational links, including code-sharing. Ports and logistics: Building transatlantic ties The largest Gulf investor in Latin America is DP World, the Dubai-based container port operator, which is estimated to have invested around US$4bn across Latin America. It currently has operations in five countries, usually operating the largest container terminals in each of them through joint-venture agreements. It entered the region through acquisitions, first of Caucedo terminal in the Dominican Republic in 2005 and then Terminales Rio de la Plata in Argentina, which it acquired as a result of its takeover of the UK’s PO. Callao in Peru, opened in 2010, was its first greenfield terminal in the region, followed by Embraport near SĂŁo Paulo in 2013. Most recently, in June 2016, DP World won a 50- year concession to develop a deep-water port at Posorja, Ecuador, near the country’s commercial capital of Guayaquil. Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem, group chairman and CEO of DP World, explains that a public-private partnership (PPP) is the preferred model for the GCC’s large infrastructure investments in Latin America, as he believes that “it leverages both sides’ strengths, promotes sustainable development and long-term action. By committing for the long term, countries and companies achieve sustainability and prosper together.” However, the region has not been without problems for DP World, whose operations in Venezuela’s largest container terminal at Puerto Cabello were seized by the government, as part of a broader nationalisation policy, in 2009—which served as a reminder that political risk in Latin America can have severe business consequences. This was a key consideration for Kuwait-based Agility, the Gulf’s largest logistics company, as well. While it has operations in every Latin American country, it only entered Colombia in 2016, in the wake of the political stabilisation following the ceasefire agreed between the government and the main leftist rebel group, the FARC (although this is currently uncertain following a no vote by a small margin in a national referendum on the peace agreement). In addition, a host of smaller, mainly Dubai- based specialist logistics firms are supplying air support or shipping services in various parts of the region, either directly or through partners. GAC Group is focused on Brazil, which it entered in 2006, and now offers shipping from eight locations. It also has partnership arrangements with local firms in Mexico, Venezuela and Panama. Two flight-support firms, Jetex and HADID International Services, also started operations in the region, notably in Brazil, in recent years.
  • 11. 10 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016 Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment With limited arable land and scarce water resources, the GCC faces challenges regarding its food security. As a result, the region has been heavily reliant on food imports, which account for over 80% of total domestic food consumption. Climate change and population growth pose additional threats to the region’s food security, although The EIU’s 2016 Global Food Security Index reports marginal improvements in the overall scores for the GCC countries, ranking them between 20th and 33rd place out of 113 countries. However, according to some estimates, as early as 2020 one-fifth of the population in Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia could be food-insecure.6 Ensuring access to food was prioritised by GCC governments following the Arab Spring in 2011. The social and political turmoil that gripped large parts of the Middle East and North Africa disrupted essential food supplies into Gulf ports, leading to substantial rises in food prices.7 Concerns had already been raised before this during the 2008 global food crisis. The food export restrictions that dozens of countries put in place raised a red flag, triggering plans to diversify the region’s food sources. These included the highly publicised and controversial proposals for investments in land development in nearby—and often food-insecure—countries such a Sudan, Pakistan, Kenya, Mauritania Agricultural trade and food security3 and Indonesia.8 However, few of these plans materialised in the face of stiff opposition from local communities. Some countries in the region have considered domestic production with sophisticated techniques, such as hydroponics and greenhouses run with solar-based desalination, but these are prohibitively expensive. Qatar experimented with this, disclosing plans in 2009 to produce up to 70% of food required domestically using these techniques. However, the target has since been lowered, and even this is unlikely to be met.9 As a result, the GCC countries have focused their food security strategies on managing imports and diversifying food sources. As the countries with the largest populations, Saudi Arabia and the UAE account for about of 80% of agricultural imports to the GCC. These consist mainly of meat (of which the top five suppliers are Brazil, Australia, India, France and Pakistan), cereals (supplied by India, Russia, Germany, Pakistan and Ukraine), and sugar (supplied by Brazil, India and China). The GCC relies heavily on Latin America, particularly Brazil, for these products. In 2015 Latin America supplied nearly half the meat imports into the GCC and 36% of the region’s total sugar imports. It is also an important source 6 Houcine Boughanmi, Sarath Kodithuwakku and Jeevika Weerahewa, “Food and Agricultural Trade in the GCC: An Opportunity for South Asia?” Paper presented at the Asia- Pacific Trade Economists Conference, “Trade in the Asian century - delivering on the promise of economic prosperity”, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), September 22nd-23rd 2014. 7 Rob Bailey with Robin Willoughby, “Edible Oil: Food Security in the Gulf”, Chatham House briefing paper, Energy, Environment and Resources series, November 2013, EER BP/2013/03. 8 “Arab Food, Water and the Big Landgrab that Wasn’t”, The Brown Journal of World Affairs, Volume XVIII, Issue 1, Fall-Winter 2011. 9 Martin Keulertz and Eckart Woertz, “States as Actors in International Agro- Investments”, in Gironde Christophe, Christophe Golay and Peter Messerli (eds), Large-Scale Land Acquisitions: Focus on South- East Asia, International Development Policy series No.6, Geneva: Graduate Institute Publications, Boston: Brill-Nijhoff.
  • 12. 11© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016 Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment for other products of animal origin, as well as coffee, tea and cereals (see figure 5). As with other commodities, the GCC relies on different countries in Latin America for different food and agricultural products. The majority of agricultural imports are sourced from Brazil and Argentina. An overwhelming majority of the meat imports to the GCC are from Brazil (96% in 2015). This mostly comprises poultry, with limited imports from Argentina, while bovine products are mostly imported from Paraguay and Uruguay. Sugar and sugar confectionary, another top food import from Latin America, is also primarily sourced from Brazil. Cereals are almost exclusively imported from Argentina and Brazil—nearly two-thirds from Argentina (corn and barley) and a little over one-third from Brazil (corn, wheat and rice). Although the GCC remains one of Latin America’s smaller customers, capturing only 2.5% of its total agricultural exports in 2015, it is clear that Latin America is a vital source of food imports for the GCC. Agricultural exports grew by 90% between 2006 and 2015, evidence that Latin America already plays an important role in the GCC’s food-security strategy. However, both regions have the potential to increase their engagement in this area further—not only by strengthening their trade ties, but also by investing in land and food-production facilities. The GCC is already investing in existing farming operations in the main markets. Qatari firm Al Gharrafa Investment has a stake in Adecoagro, a farming enterprise in Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. Similarly, Hassad Food, the agricultural arm of Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund, is exploring Brazilian sugar and poultry assets. However, there is scope to expand these activities beyond the region’s agricultural giants. Paraguay, Uruguay and Chile have well- established agro-industries that could provide interesting investment opportunities. Identifying companies to invest in across the food value chain represents a complex task for GCC countries. With small markets (apart from Saudi Arabia, most GCC states have relatively small populations of under 10m), these countries cannot benefit from the economies of scale of Top ten Latin American agricultural products imported by the GCC (US$ bn) Source: Data taken from www.trademap.org, accessed on 7th October 2016. Figure 5 Meat Share of GCC imports from Latin America Cereals Sugars and sugar confectionery Prepared animal fodder; Food industry waste Edible fruit and nuts Miscellaneous grains, seeds and fruit; Coffee, tea, matĂ© and spices Dairy produce; birds' eggs; natural honey Preparations of seafood Preparations of vegetables, fruit, nuts 47% 9% 36% 33% 7% 15% 11% 2% 5% 3% 2,824,930 590,527 570,061 311,220 298,589 259,914 199,150 96,787 76,846 74,731 Note: Product categories from the Harmonised System (HS) developed by the World Customs Organization. Total agricultural exports comprise the values for chapters 1 to 24 of the HS. Preparations of vegetables, fruit Preparations of se Dairy produce; birds' eggs; natu Coffee, tea, matĂ© and Miscellaneous grains, seeds and Edible fruit and Prepared animal fodder; Fo Sugars and sugar confecti C
  • 13. 12 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016 Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment large farming operations in Latin America. As Youssef Hegazy, senior vice president for business development at Hassad Food, explains: “Qatar is a very small market, while most of the businesses in the agriculture sector that are commercially viable are quite large.” As a result, firms in the region are investing in companies higher up the value chain as part of a broader investment strategy, with a secondary focus on food security for their country. Mr Hegazy notes: “When your primary strategy is food security, then you suffer if you are a small market or a small investor, but when you focus on commercially viable businesses, then food security becomes a by-product.” Another hurdle to investment is that many Latin American businesses in the food sector are family-owned, with opaque structures that make it difficult to assess opportunities and conduct the necessary due diligence. Ancillary investments in Latin American port and road infrastructure may also play a role in facilitating a seamless supply of food to the region. Mr Bin Sulayem of DP World asserts that they have “been working in some markets—Buenos Aires, for example—to strengthen shipping connectivity with the Gulf, which would not only facilitate trade but also potentially address [food security] concerns”. Roberto Dunn, executive director of Ecuadorian business conglomerate Consorcio Nobis, echoes this sentiment: “The new Posorja port will undoubtedly lead to a dramatic expansion of potential markets for Ecuador’s bananas, including the Middle East. As a deep-water port, it will offer direct shipping-line connectivity and will halve transit times by avoiding intermediate ports such as Buenaventura or Panama, or even Callao.”
  • 14. 13© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016 Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment Growing air and seaport links form the bedrock for increased engagement between the two regions. They can facilitate greater movement of goods and people to expand commercial opportunities, which will be vital for investors and businesses in both regions as they search for pockets of growth and new markets for their products in the face of a difficult global economic outlook. Beyond engagement in aviation, logistics and agriculture, GCC firms are involved in Latin America’s industrial sector as well. Abu Dhabi fund IPIC has exposure to a number of petrochemical plants across Latin America through its stakes in two European firms, CEPSA (oil and gas, headquartered in Spain) and Borealis (polyethylene and polypropylene, headquartered in Austria). In 2009 Dubai’s state-owned aluminium firm Dubal bought 19% of Companhia de Alumina do ParĂĄ, a subsidiary of Brazilian mining firm Vale. At the same time, there are opportunities for Latin American businesses to set up production facilities in the Gulf region to process products closer to their final destinations in Asia and Europe. Vale has set up a steel pellet plant in Oman, which sources raw materials from Brazil and exports the processed product to construction firms in China and India, Conclusion substantially reducing the distance between the place of production and the consumer. “The way to move forward is for Latin American companies to establish themselves in the GCC, where they are closer to large consumers,” says Mr Melham of the Gulf Latin America Leaders Council. If commercial links are to increase, opportunities will arise in banking as well. Two early moves in financial services include Qatar Investment Authority’s purchase of a 5% stake in Banco Santander Brazil for US$2.7bn in 2009 and Abu Dhabi Investment Council’s investment in BTG Pactual, Brazil’s most prominent investment bank, in 2010. Brazilian banks Banco do Brasil and ItaĂș have a presence in Dubai, but according to Mr Melham, “there are no Mexican, Chilean, or Panamanian banks. It is important to get closer to new markets and to have offices that not only represent the banks themselves but also their clients, who could produce in those countries.” Crucially for potential investors, when considering Latin America for trade or investment, it is important to note that it is a heterogeneous bloc, with distinct geographical sub-regions. At the same time, the region has different groups with clearly differentiated trading strategies. While the Pacific Alliance countries (Peru, Colombia, Chile and Mexico) are strongly in favour of free trade and seek to open
  • 15. 14 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2016 Bridging the Gulf: LatAm-GCC trade and investment up their markets, the five Mercosur members have favoured a more protectionist approach in the past (although there are signs this is changing now). These differences must be taken into account by the GCC in order to develop a more nuanced trade and investment agenda in Latin America. While much more needs to be done to boost awareness and information about the potential benefits of deeper links between the GCC and Latin America, particularly beyond Brazil and Argentina, this region undoubtedly offers great diversity of food sources and opportunities for investments across sectors.
  • 16. While every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this information, The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd. cannot accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this report or any of the information, opinions or conclusions set out in this report.
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