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A Global Value Chain Analysis of Food Security and Food Staples for Major Energy-Exporting Nations in the Middle East and North Africa
- 1. A Global Value Chain Analysis of Food Security and Food Staples for Major Energy-Exporting Nations in the Middle East and North Africa Ghada Ahmed, Danny Hamrick, Sona Nahapetyan and Gary Gereffi – Duke CGGC at SSRI Lincoln Pratson – Nicholas School of the Environment at Duke Ghada Ahmed, CGGC, Duke University MINERVA Annual Meeting, Washington DC, September 15, 2016
- 2. High food prices can be a tipping point Food Inflation Riots, Spark Worries for World Leaders — Wall Street Journal, April 14, 2008 2
- 3. Social stability is sensitive to food prices 3
- 4. Top down – the global economy with a focus on actor networks, using varied typologies of “governance” Bottom up – a focus on countries and regions, analyzed in terms of economic, social and environmental “upgrading” or “downgrading” 4 Approach
- 5. Food Security Domestic Regional International Dimensions of Food Security Geographic Scope Actors Availability Production Storage Access Prices Incomes Distribution Marketing Utilization Domestic End Use Diet Stability Domestic Regional International Shocks e.g. weather, markets, & unrest Government Traders Firms Intermediaries Bakeries Farmers Bakeries Households Government Traders Banks Drivers of Food Security The methodology investigates … 5
- 6. Inputs R&D Seeds Land Water Fertilizer Pesticide Machines Soft, Hard, Durum wheat Smallholders Large farms Cleaning Weighing Grading Elevators Feed Mills Livestock production Food manufacturers Bakeries Wholesale Supermarkets & Grocers Production Processing Marketing Blending Biofuels Trade Trading companies Domestic International Certification Mills Milling Packaging Storage Offshore production Refineries Labor Supporting activities and institutions Government Regulations Futures Trading Food aid Trade Policies Financial Intermediaries Infrastructure The wheat global value chain 6
- 7. 7 ADM Bunge Cargill Louis Dreyfus Glencore Input Suppliers Grain Farms Grain Traders Bulk Grain Buyers Grain Millers Processors Grain Facilities, logistics & Terminals Financial Services e.g. credit, futures, derivatives 70-90% of grains traded internationally are managed by the ABCDs Lead Firms market, process, finance and transport key commodities Source: CGGC based on company reports & literature review
- 8. Cheap bread impacts 75% of the population in Egypt Bakeries Production Processing Consumption • Bread rationing • Food subsidy 2% of GDP • Available bread $0.7/loaf Small & Medium Farms Red: Acute disruption points in wheat GVC Currency Reserves 50% to $18.9 billion Source: Suez Canal & Tourism Mills Importing 4 - 5 million tons Storage <3 months 8 Source: CGGC based on on 2013 data from primary and secondary sources
- 9. Bread, oil and water are key to gaining power in the Syrian conflict 9
- 10. SOURCE: FAO, total tonnage of wheat exported Algeria has imported 16.6% of MENA’s wheat since 2007 Different regions within MENA rely on different countries as their leading source of imported wheat. Depending on the country, these relationships have persisted since 2007 Morocco has imported 9.3%of MENA’s wheat since 2007 Egypt has imported 25.9% of MENA’s wheat since 2007 France Russia AustraliaNo stickiness Libya Syria Mauritania Saudi Arabia IranIraq 10 Russia is the largest supplier of MENA’s wheat
- 11. Low oil prices and currency devaluation impacted Russian trade 11 March 2014 US & EU Sanctions August 2014 Russian counter sanctions IMF estimates Russian real GDP reduced by 1-1½ % Source: IMF, 2015; Ahmed et al, forthcoming Oil price drop in 2014 January, 2014 $1=34 RUB December, 2014 $1=80 RUB High Inflation Trade Barriers
- 12. Russia • Import bans • Frequent draughts and high weather variability • Limited access to finance • Export production is concentrated in central Russia • Infrastructure deficit • Trade embargos and restrictions • Oligopolistic markets • Currency devaluation, inflation and regional stability MENA • Water insecurity • Arid land • High subsidies • Low productivity • Price Controls • Infrastructure deficit • Limited port and storage capacity • Low foreign reserves • Government intervention, high global prices and infrastructure problems Inputs Production Processing Trading Currency devaluation and trade barriers introduce uncertainty
- 13. 13 Ghada Ahmed Ghada.ahmed@duke.edu www.cggc.duke.edu Thank You!
- 14. APENDIX 14
- 15. Project Overview 15 • Multi-year project supported by US Dept. of Defense MINERVA Initiative and Army Research Office for University-Led Research • Collaboration with the Nicholas School of the Environment to study food security in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) • Rank food security of MENA countries based on multiple variables and data sources • Apply GVC approach to identify vulnerabilities and leverage points in key food commodities in MENA countries • Identify risks and strategic options to improve food security in the region
- 16. GVC contributes to studies of stability by examining the nexus of policy and trade Domestic Policy Food Prices Global Political Economy Social (In)Stability 16
- 17. Oil Prices Dropped 17
- 18. The Ruble Dropped 18
- 19. Inflation remains elevated in Russia 19
- 20. Wheat export ports 20 Glencore, Kernerl Group of Ukraine & others United Grain Co. (50%), Summa Group Outspan International Source: Forthcoming Ahmed et al, 2015
- 21. Leading exporters of grains in Russia 21 38% by International Firms e.g. Glencore, Cargill 35% Domestic firms e.g. RIF 26% small local actors 1% by the state agency United Grain Company Source: Forthcoming Ahmed et al
