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Global	
  Value	
  Chain	
  Analysis	
  of	
  Food	
  Security	
  and	
  Food	
  
Staples	
  for	
  Major	
  Energy-­‐	
  ...
•  Mul$-­‐year	
  project	
  supported	
  by	
  US	
  Dept.	
  of	
  Defense	
  MINERVA	
  
Ini?a?ve	
  and	
  Army	
  Res...
GVC	
  Analysis	
  
	
  
•  Trace	
  the	
  geographic	
  spread	
  of	
  produc?on	
  
•  Map	
  the	
  ecosystem	
  of	
...
Wheat Global Value Chain
Inputs
R&D
Seeds
Fertilizer
Pesticide
Machines
Soft, Hard, Durum wheat
Smallholders
Large farms
C...
Algeria	
  	
  
	
  has	
  imported	
  
16.6%	
  
of	
  MENA’s	
  
wheat	
  since	
  
2007	
  
Different	
  regions	
  with...
Dependency	
  on	
  Russian	
  Trade	
  
6	
  
Climate	
   Policy	
  
Poli?cal	
  
Tension	
  
Stability	
  	
  
MENA	
  
...
Russian	
  Wheat	
  Policy	
  Timeline	
  
7	
  
1980s	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  1990s	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
 ...
Russian	
  Wheat	
  Value	
  Chain	
  
8	
  
Processing	
   Consump$on	
  
Agroholdings	
  –	
  47%	
  
Family	
  Farms	
 ...
Leading	
  exporters	
  of	
  grains	
  in	
  Russia	
  
9	
  
38%	
  by	
  
Interna?onal	
  
Firms	
  e.g.	
  
Glencore,	...
Wheat	
  export	
  ports	
  
10	
  
Glencore,	
  Kernerl	
  Group	
  of	
  Ukraine	
  &	
  others	
  
United	
  Grain	
  C...
What	
  is	
  the	
  impact	
  of	
  Russia’s	
  
economic	
  downturn	
  on	
  the	
  
wheat	
  chain?	
  
11	
  
Economic	
  Sanc?ons	
  
12	
  
March	
  2014	
  
US	
  &	
  EU	
  
Sanc?ons	
  	
  
August	
  	
  2014	
  
Russian	
  
co...
Oil	
  Prices	
  Dropped	
  
13	
  
The	
  Ruble	
  Dropped	
  
14	
  
Infla?on	
  remains	
  elevated	
  in	
  Russia	
  
15	
  
Risks	
  to	
  the	
  wheat	
  value	
  chain	
  
•  The	
  private	
  sector	
  is	
  facing	
  many	
  issues	
  
•  Sta...
THANK	
  YOU!	
  
QUESTIONS?	
  
Ghada	
  Ahmed	
  
Ghada.ahmed@duke.edu	
  
17	
  
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Global Value Chain Analysis of Food Security and Food Staples for Major Energy- Exporting Nations in the Middle East and North Africa: Russia Focus

Duke CGGC researchers gave this overview of food security in the wheat industry with implications for the MENA region and Russia. This is part of an ongoing stream of research with the Minerva Initiative.

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Global Value Chain Analysis of Food Security and Food Staples for Major Energy- Exporting Nations in the Middle East and North Africa: Russia Focus

  1. 1. Global  Value  Chain  Analysis  of  Food  Security  and  Food   Staples  for  Major  Energy-­‐  Expor?ng  Na?ons  in  the  Middle   East  and  North  Africa:     Russia  Focus   Ghada  Ahmed   Danny  Hamrick     SMA  Lecture  Series   Tuesday  September  8th,  2015     1  
  2. 2. •  Mul$-­‐year  project  supported  by  US  Dept.  of  Defense  MINERVA   Ini?a?ve  and  Army  Research  Office  for  University-­‐Led  Research     •  Collabora$on  with  the  Nicholas  School  of  the  Environment  to   study  food  security  in  the  Middle  East  and  North  Africa  (MENA)   •  Rank  food  security  of  MENA  countries  based  on  mul?ple   variables  and  data  sources   •  Apply  GVC  approach  to  iden$fy  vulnerabili$es  and  leverage   points  in  key  food  commodi?es  in  MENA  countries   •  Iden$fy  risks  and  strategic  op$ons  to  improve  food  security  in   the  region   Minerva  Project  Overview   2  
  3. 3. GVC  Analysis     •  Trace  the  geographic  spread  of  produc?on   •  Map  the  ecosystem  of  firms,  ins?tu?ons  &  policies   •  Analyze  governance  structures  &  enabling  environment   •  Determine  upgrading  trajectories  &  boFlenecks   •  Address  economic,  social  &  environmental  challenges   Inputs   Processing   Marke?ng  Produc?on   3  
  4. 4. Wheat Global Value Chain Inputs R&D Seeds Fertilizer Pesticide Machines Soft, Hard, Durum wheat Smallholders Large farms Cleaning Elevators Feed Milling Livestock production Food manufacturers Wholesale Supermarkets & Grocers Production Processing Marketing Blending Trade Trading companies Domestic International Drying Mills Flour Milling Packaging Offshore production Labor Supporting activities and institutions Government Regulations Futures Trading Food aid Trade Policies Financial Intermediaries Infrastructure Logistics Land Water Storage Blending Bakeries 4  
  5. 5. Algeria      has  imported   16.6%   of  MENA’s   wheat  since   2007   Different  regions  within  MENA  rely  on  different  countries  as  their  leading  source  of  imported   wheat.  Depending  on  the  country,  these  rela?onships  have  persisted  since  2007   Morocco   has  imported   9.3%  of   MENA’s  wheat   since  2007   Egypt   has   imported 25.9%   of  MENA’s   wheat   since  2007   France  Russia   Australia  No  s?ckiness   Libya   Syria   Mauritania   Saudi  Arabia   Iran  Iraq   Wheat Procurement Across MENA   5  
  6. 6. Dependency  on  Russian  Trade   6   Climate   Policy   Poli?cal   Tension   Stability     MENA    Commonwealth  of   Independent  States   Ukraine,     Bal?c  countries      
  7. 7. Russian  Wheat  Policy  Timeline   7   1980s            1990s                    2000s                          2006      2008      2010        2014   Soviet  Union  was  a   large  grain  importer   to  support   protected  livestock   sector   Market  liberaliza?on  led   to  decrease  in  livestock   sector  subsidies  led  to   decrease  in  need  for   animal  feed,  became   small  grain  exporter  and   meat  importer   Improvements  in  grain   yields,  despite  a  drop  in   ag  subsidies,  increased   domes?c  supply  allowing   for  more  exports,   emerged  as  a  leading   exporter.  Agroholdings   emerge   World  food  prices   surge,  farmers   return  to  fallow  land,   GOR  increase   support  to  ag  sector,   livestock  sector   receives  bulk  of   benefits   World  economic   crisis  hits  Russia,   places  an  export   tax  on  wheat     Drought  causes  GOR  to   ban  exports  in  August   2010  –  June  2011.  GOV   also  required  all   traders  to  abrogate   contracts  with  foreign   buyers,  produc?on   decreases   Russia  absorbs  Crimea  &   over  2million  ppl,  bans  ag   imports  (poultry  &  beef)   from  the  West  and   imposes  stringent  export   controls  that  halts  wheat   export        
  8. 8. Russian  Wheat  Value  Chain   8   Processing   Consump$on   Agroholdings  –  47%   Family  Farms  –  42%     Small  Enterprises  –  9%         -­‐  Agroholdings  are  mostly  ver?cally   integrated  (transport,  mills,  ports,   storage,  expor?ng)   -­‐  Small  producers  sell  to  processors   or  traders     Domes?c  consump?on  –   bread,  animal  feed   Exports  –  Egypt,  Turkey,   Yemen  &  Iran     Production Vulnerabili?es     Climate   Policy  &  trade  bans  Logis?cs   Infla?on  
  9. 9. Leading  exporters  of  grains  in  Russia   9   38%  by   Interna?onal   Firms  e.g.   Glencore,   Cargill   35%  Domes?c   firms  e.g.  RIF   26%  small  local   actors   1%  by  the  state   agency  United   Grain  Company   Source:  Forthcoming  Ahmed  et  al,  2015  
  10. 10. Wheat  export  ports   10   Glencore,  Kernerl  Group  of  Ukraine  &  others   United  Grain  Co.  (50%),  Summa  Group   Outspan  Interna?onal     Source:  Forthcoming  Ahmed  et  al,  2015  
  11. 11. What  is  the  impact  of  Russia’s   economic  downturn  on  the   wheat  chain?   11  
  12. 12. Economic  Sanc?ons   12   March  2014   US  &  EU   Sanc?ons     August    2014   Russian   counter   sanc?ons   IMF  es?mates   Russian  real   GDP  reduced   by  1-­‐1½  %   Source:  IMF,  2015,  Forthcoming  Ahmed  et  al,  2015     •  Russia  is  the  top  des?na?on  for  EU  agricultural  products  aner  the   USA   •   Producers  from  expor?ng  countries  experienced  price  drop     •  Counter  sanc?ons  supported  by    about  87%  of  the  popula?on     •  Import  bill  for  food  products  decreased  by  almost  42%  in  January   2015     •  Imposed  embargo  led  to  price  spikes  in  domes?c  market  
  13. 13. Oil  Prices  Dropped   13  
  14. 14. The  Ruble  Dropped   14  
  15. 15. Infla?on  remains  elevated  in  Russia   15  
  16. 16. Risks  to  the  wheat  value  chain   •  The  private  sector  is  facing  many  issues   •  Statements  to  rein  in  wheat  exports   •  Phytosanitary  cer?ficates  only  to  four   countries     •  Ships  are  stuck  at  Novorossiysk  and  logis?cal   boolenecks   •  Non-­‐availability  of  grain  at  the  port  implies   shupng  down  exports   16  
  17. 17. THANK  YOU!   QUESTIONS?   Ghada  Ahmed   Ghada.ahmed@duke.edu   17  

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