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Vietnam Mobile Market Analysis 2012

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Vietnam Mobile Market Analysis 2012

  1. 1. Smartphone-Tablet By Dunglt. Year: 2012 Note: keep confidential
  2. 2. Menu  Global Smartphone& Tablet (S&T) trends.  Vietnam S&T market.  Opportunities.  Challenges.
  3. 3. Global S&T Trends  Internet users& subscribers  Hardware.  Software & Apps.  Social& Sharing.
  4. 4. Internet Users& subscribers  How internet users and subscribers lead smartphones and tablet???  Source of data: US Census Bureau March 2012; ITU Nov 2011, IDC 2012; Cisco Visual Network index, Mar 2012 Percentage of World Population Tv Subscription Newspaper circulation Fixed broadband subscriptions Smartphone and tablet in use Telephone Lines Mobile Broadband Subscriptions Total PCs Internet Users Mobile Subscriptions World Population Fixed Mobile Smartphon Mobile broadban Tv World Internet Broadband Telephone e and Newspaper Subscriptio Total PCs d Subscriptio Population Users Subscriptio Lines tablet in circulation ns subscriptio n ns use ns Y2010 99% 74% 29% 22% 0 14% 6% 8% 7% 7% Y2011 100% 85% 35% 23% 17% 17% 11% 8% 7% 7%
  5. 5. Internet Users 5 Countries = 46% of Internet Users – China, USA, R ussia, Brazil, In dia Note: *Penetration is per 100 inhabitants. Source: 1) Internet user stats per International Telecommunications Union; 2) time spent data per comScore global 12/09
  6. 6. Subscribers Mobility will be a key innovation accelerator in emerging markets; Internet and 3G users and subscribers in select emerging markets. Source: Internet stats- ITU 2012; 36 stats- Informa WCIS+, Morgan Stanley; Revenue estimate for 2012, Think entertainment 2011
  7. 7. Internet Users& Subscribers (2020 Forecast) Internet user Worldwide (Billion) Sources: "Online Product Research," Y2020 5 Pew Research Center, 9/2010, Goo gle Shopper Y2011 2 Sciences, Zero Moment of Truth Study, 4/2011 Mobile subscribers (Billion) Y2020 10 Y2011 5 Digital information in the World- videos, photos, musics, texts, etc.(BBillion ) Y2020 53,000 Y2011 800
  8. 8. Software& Apps  How software and Apps affect to Smartphone and tablet???
  9. 9. Software& Apps Apps are important to smartphone purchases Very Important Somewhat Important neutral Somewhat Unimportant Very Unimportant Total smartphone 38% 40% 16% 4% 2% Android OS 36% 40% 18% 4% 3% Apple iPhone OS 44% 38% 13% 4% 2% Blackberry 32% 45% 17% 4% 2% Source: Ac Nielsen
  10. 10. Software& Apps
  11. 11. Software& Apps Source: Apple
  12. 12. Software& Apps Mobile App Downloads iOs Android 18 10 5 1 Y2010 Y2011 Source: Think-mobile Google
  13. 13. Software& Apps  Mobile Platform Installed Base vs App dowloads per Day 18 1,200 17 16 1,000 1,000 1,000 14 12 800 11 10 600 8 6 400 5 4 4 200 2 2 100 100 80 80 1 0 0 Symbian Other (Java/ Window Mobile Blackberry Android iPhone Brew) Installed Base (MM) App Downloads per Day (MM)
  14. 14. Software& Apps Zynga Proves that Great New Social Products for „Old‟ Users Can Ramp Extremely Quickly
  15. 15. Software& Apps Average Time Spent on Various Mobile Functions, 1/11 Web/Web Apps Telephony Mail App All Other 10 Minute % Note 12% 40 Web/Web 48% Apps 10 12% 27 32% Telephon y 27 32% Phone, Skype, Messages Mail App 7 9% 7 8% Maps, Games, Social All Other 40 47% Networking... 60% of Time Spent on Smartphones is New Activity for Mobile Users
  16. 16. Social& Sharing  How social, communication and sharing drive Smartphone and tablet???
  17. 17. Social, Searching& Sharing
  18. 18. Social, Searching& Sharing
  19. 19. Social, Searching& Sharing Real-Time Social Features Accelerating Mobile Usage Growth - Sharing + Location + Friending...
  20. 20. Social, Searching& Sharing Different Types of Platforms = Emerging Types of Social Facebook + Apple + Google Networks...More to Come
  21. 21. Social, Searching& Sharing Google and Facebook lead in mobile reach on both Android and Apple iOS
  22. 22. Social, Searching& Sharing
  23. 23. Social, Searching& Sharing
  24. 24. Hardware  Driven by many factors, so how smartphone and tablet grow in worldwide???
  25. 25. Hardware iPods Changed the Media Industry...iPhones Ramped Even Faster...iPad Growth Leaves its “Siblings” in the Dust. Source: Apple
  26. 26. Hardware Source: Gartner
  27. 27. Hardware
  28. 28. Hardware Source: hannemyr.com/essay/diff.html 2000, macworld.com, 2010
  29. 29. Hardware Note: Notebook PCs include Netbooks. Source: Katy Huberty, Ehud Gelblum, Morgan Stanley Research. Data and Estimates as of 2/11
  30. 30. Hardware
  31. 31. Hardware
  32. 32. Summaries 1. Internet user& subscribers: 2. Soft& Apps: + 6 billion subscribers Y2011, equivalent + Y2011,18 billion apps download in iOs to 87 percent of the world population. compare with 5 billion Y2010, and + Growth 10% from 5.4 billion Y2010 Android 10 billion compare with 1 and leading by developing countries billion Y2010. as APAC and China, India. + Apps contribute nearly 80% to + 2 billion are on internet Y2011. decision of smartphone purchase. + Y2020, internet user will be increased +2 2.5 times and 2 times with subscribers. + 60% of Time Spent on Smartphones is New Activity for Mobile Users
  33. 33. Summaries 4. Hardwares: 3. Social: + Android reach 300M, iPhone 183M and + Social, sharing, searching is the iPad 55M units sold out until Y2011 from trends that drive future of Smartphone launch. and tablet with + Apple, just after 28 days to get 1M units Facebook, Twitter, Youtube, Google… sold out while iPod 360+ and iPhone 74 + in USA people spend too much time days. for Facebook, Google, even 57% to + iPhone, tablet get 50M users within 2 talk people online than real life. years equivalent to TV 12 years and Radio + Facebook and Google are 2 big nearly 40 years. player in iOs and Android base with + Forecast: 2012 tablet will account 25% 662M and 972M users of PC shipments and Mobile over pass PC
  34. 34. Vietnam S&T Trends  Internet users& subscribers.  Software & Apps.  Social& Sharing.  Hardware.
  35. 35. Internet user and subscribers
  36. 36. Internet user and subscribers 1. The internet users and mobile subscribers penetration of Vietnam is rated highly comparing with others in Southeast Asia: Mobile is the No1 with 174% and Internet No3 lower than Singapore and Thailand over 30%. 2. Vietnam shows that tech background is ready for hardware and related applications. And actually this means that costs for them are cheap even free.
  37. 37. Internet user and subscribers Opportunities: 1. Rising income and cheaper phones and IT devices are making telco services more affordable. 2. Mobile internet (3G), broadband and VAS Threats: provided through high speed Internet Saturated mobile market, with a access.(Slide 6 to see 707% growth 3G Vn) penetration rate of 174.4% in 2010 - 3. Semi-rural and rural markets, which remain subscriber growth to slow to 6.1% p.a. relatively untapped and account for 70% of over the next five years (2011-2015). the country‟s population. 4. Collaborations between telco operators, telco and IT device suppliers, content developers, content aggregators and users can provide new sources for VAS.
  38. 38. ICT Vietnam Target
  39. 39. Software& Apps Regular Apps download is one of the highest rates in SEA only behind Singapore, but people not ready pay for download Source: AC Nielsen
  40. 40. Social, Searching& Sharing  How social, communication and sharing group work???
  41. 41. Social, Searching& Sharing Although Vietnam has shown the highest growth in reach of 35% from 2009 to 2010, the penetration rate of social network remains low at just 66%. This has also led to a 73% increased in the number of Vietnamese sharing photos on social networking sites in the same years as they began to embrace the sharing of photos with friends as part of the social networking experience
  42. 42. Social, Searching& Sharing 1. Blog sites have a 57% reach in Vietnam, pretty much be the same reach as in 2009 (56%) (source: Comscore). 2. Community sites have a 72% reach in the country now (source: Comscore). 3. Vietnam is now home to more than 4 million bloggers, despite them living in one of the “10 worst countries to be a blogger”. (Source: movements.org/RSF).
  43. 43. Social, Searching& Sharing 1. Facebook is inaccessible in Vietnam around 70% of 3. Local social networks Zingme and Yome have been the time (Source: movements.org/RSF). more successful at attracting users, with Zingme 2. Despite the unavailability of Facebook in Vietnam currently having around 5.6 million unique users on its and despite the fact that the government blocked it books, Yume with 2.9 million. more than a year ago- it has still managed to gamer 4. Another study contradicts these findings regarding around 1.4 million users, 40.7% more than in 2009 which is the biggest social network in Vietnam; it places Facebook firmly at the top as the most visited social networking site in the country with 67% of internet users checking it out, compared to only 19% of users going to Zingme.
  44. 44. Hardwares If Vietnam will stand in the trend of global Smartphone and tablet???
  45. 45. Hardwares Mobile stands out as the most owned and most sort after device in Vietnam, Smartphone and tablet still low owned and maybe potential with “likely to buy” Source: TNS, 2012
  46. 46. Hardwares In mobile phone demand, smartphone still far behind from others in ASEA Source: Ac Niensel, Oct 2011 Compare with other countries in ASEA, Vietnam is mature of laptop with the highest demand and Smartphone, tablet is very potential with low start
  47. 47. Hardwares How many tech devices people own in Vietnam??? And trend will be increased to catch up numbers in developed countries??? Source: TNS, 2012
  48. 48. Hardwares Desktop still is the device most owned by people. Tablet not yet present in Vietnam household much as othes Source: Ac Niensel, Oct 2011
  49. 49. Hardwares In Vietnam there is still strong reliance on PCs for many activities – this will change as smartphone penetration and understanding grows Source: TNS, 2012
  50. 50. Smartphone 1. Note: Data exclude export number as Nokia, HTC and LG. 2. Some assumptions: iPhone hand carry 5 times than official ones. 3. YoY up to date Q3Y2012 increase 2.4% while Q2, Q3 number down0.84% and 21% compare with previous. Look back to 2011/2010 market growth YoY 21%.
  51. 51. Smartphone 1. Nokia and Samsung still No 1 and No 2 in mobile market. 2. M/S Nokia in increasing trend from 60% to 72% while Samsung decrease too much from 35.78% to 20%%.
  52. 52. Smartphone 1. Smartphone accounts 11 to 16% of total market. 2. However in 2012 Smartphone in down trend caused by gloomy economy. 3. While all phone market just increase slowly around 2.4% and fixture phone down 12.54% , smartphone still get high growth YoY with 41% 3Q2012/3Q2011.
  53. 53. Smartphone Samsung get No 1 M/S in smartphone market with 40- 60%, next is iPhone with 10 to 25%.
  54. 54. Smartphone Smartphone usage is set to explode in emerging markets; having a mobile brand solution ready is paramount
  55. 55. Tablet
  56. 56. Tablet In 2012, iPad still dominate tablet market with 70% M/S while Samsung and Asus nearly 2% too small but others as Kinder, Acer and local tablet brand as Fpt increase too much with 28% M/S. In iPad market, Ftw and Jel contribute main number to Apple with 80% M/S.
  57. 57. Opportunities  Growth.  New.  Profit Businesses.  Long term. Why Samsung and Nokia invest into factory in Vietnam???
  58. 58. Opportunities Growth Profit New Businesses Long term
  59. 59. Growth Worldwide Key Tablet and PC Assumptions 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1. Worldwide: Tablet Shipments (millions) + PCs gross: slow down growth from Desktops 136 146 152 157 159 Notebooks 135 164 189 210 232 15% to 6% YoY. Netbooks 34 36 29 26 27 Tablets 16 55 85 102 + Tablets increase considerably 54% in Total 305 362 425 478 520 PCs, gross 305 351 386 416 439 2012 and over pass 100M units in 2013. Tablet Cannibalization -5 -16 -23 -21 Pcs, net 305 346 370 393 418 + Tablet cannibalize to PC and Tablets 0 16 55 85 102 Total 305 362 425 478 520 especially netbook cause them slow YoY Growth Desktops -10% 7% 5% 3% 1% down in growth. Notebooks 6% 22% 15% 11% 10% Netbooks 118% 8% -20% -11% 5% + Smartphone has big growth in 2011 Tablets Total 4% 19% 245% 17% 54% 12% 20% 9% around 61% and then maintain at 20% PCs, gross Pcs, net 4% 4% 15% 14% 10% 7% 8% 6% 6% 6% Cannibalization in next years. IDC expect smartphone Rate 30% 29% 27% 21% Smartphone will reach 1B in 2015 Shipments (millions) 304.7 491.4 582 707 YoY Growth 61.30% 18% 21% Source: Morgan Stanley Research, IDC
  60. 60. Growth 1. Vietnam: + PCs gross: slow down especially in 2012 caused by gloom economy only 2-3%. + While tablets and smartphone still keep high growing with 92% and 51% and as soon smartphone will over pass Pcs. + As the same global trend tablets is killing to segment of netbook and laptop Vietnam PC Assumptions 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Shipments (millions) Desktops 878,882 893,384 972,766 1,072,149 1,195,116 Notebooks 1,233,632 1,273,008 1,374,064 1,532,526 1,744,212 Netbooks Pcs, gross 2,112,514.00 2,166,392.00 2,346,830.00 2,604,675.00 2,939,328.00 Tablets SmartPhones 857,135 1,294,274 S&T YoY Growth Desktops 2% 9% 10% 11% Notebooks 3% 8% 12% 14% Netbooks Pcs, gross 3% 8% 11% 13% Tablets 92% SmartPhones 51%
  61. 61. Growth Why smartphones and tablets bite Pcs??? Tablets, Smartphone signal a change in PC usage: personal computing usage suggests that computing will increasingly migrate towards mobile devices, including tablets and smartphones, over time. Approximately 75% of total personal computer usage is spent consuming and sharing content, as opposed to creating content. Consuming content includes activities like browsing the web, social networking, listening to music, viewing pictures, and watching video. Content creation includes activities such as word processing, creating spreadsheets, and photo editing. Given this typical usage pattern, we think consumers will increasingly migrate towards computing devices such as tablets that are optimized for content consumption. Tablets, smartphone are optimized for content consumption. Mobility and ubiquitous connectivity mean that you can take a tablet virtually anywhere and have access to personal content and the web. High-resolution displays are ideal for web browsing, email, watching video, and reading books, magazines, and newspapers. Long battery life, thanks to operating system and processor innovation, means that one can consume content all day on a single charge (on the iPad, for instance). Content is robust, offering a considerable selection of music, movies, TV shows, books, and magazines that can be accessed with the click of a button. Application marketplaces offer a wide array of options that significantly enhance the tablet computing experience beyond tradtional desktop computing.
  62. 62. Growth What make them grow??? Internet and telecommunication Function: Camera, movies, email, webs background in Vn are readiness: 1. Can match many demand of people for 1. Cost for subscriber is very low, even wifi office, entertainments, search and free in Coffee shop, hotels and sharing… restaurants. Operators run big 2. All in one, is useful for travelling people. promotion for customers. 3. You are not need to be pro to be movie 2. Knowledge of people is increased makers, photographers… during long time penetration. 4. Smaller, lighter and mobility. 3. High speed connection via broadband and 3G. Social, chatting, sharing and search: Apps and VAS: with 3G and high speed 1. Facebook, Zing, Twitter, Pinterest….requ internet: est people chatting, sharing information 1. Many apps and Vas are created and via status every hour. free download or with cheap cost. 2. Gamming online 2. Apps serve many kinds of demand from 3. Clips and photos sharing by group books, movies, travelling, commerce, ga All request Smartphone and tablet have mes, chatting, sharing…. strong specs and high resolution screen to 3. These never did before in Win or PC serve demands.
  63. 63. iPhone: 5 year olds. New iPad: 2 year olds iPhone iPad 1. With long year history of PC and Mobile industry, smartphone and tablets just are new comers but as the human their growth is quicker than their parents. 2. Vietnam‟s always late 2-3 months with area and global launching but all come from big cities as Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh. Rural areas long far behind big cities. 3. Vietnam still strong rely on PCs and feature phones with low base knowledge and obviously cheap price. 4. Very a few of retail shops have full service for customers such as high educate sale-man, training course, live display of products and integrate solution…
  64. 64. New New makes smartphone and tablet more attractive and more curious. And that is the reason why they made a wave of standing out side retail shop in launching day to be the first ones own hot new products even: 1. These products in first launching are expensive ones. 2. After some weeks all of them will be on shelf. Of AlphaWise surveys, interest in tablets is the highest. To put these numbers into context, extreme interest in purchasing a tablet computer is higher than in any survey we have completed over the last three years and 2.5 times higher than tablet purchase intentions in March 2010. What‟s more, extreme interest in purchasing a tablet is 1.5 times higher than iPhone purchase intentions indicated by our March 2010 survey (exhibit 6), and Apple is on track to sell 47 million units in the 12 months following the survey.
  65. 65. Why do not think you can sell Smart TV with Profit Businesses tablets, smartphones??? Accessories: smartphone and tablets considered as high value ones so they need: Sale 1. Protect cases, screen. 2. Fashionable cases, bags. 3. Normally one hardware sold out accompanies by 2 accessories Services: smartphone and tablets Hardware Hardw request users have high knowledge 20% 80% and demand: 1. They need training course. 2. Online advices. 3. Download Apps, music, photos, movies, onl ine games. 4. Warranty services. Access Refurbished: smartphone and Access Service tablets are high price and the most Serv desire so: 80% 20% 1. Not many people can afford to buy. 2. Many people want to upgrade and change old to new ones and they want to sell. Chance to run refurbished business, let see Apple  Profit
  66. 66. Profit Businesses Apps for cooperates, restaurants…: 1. a survey of 50 enterprise CIOs and came to a similar conclusion, but the number of companies actually purchasing tablets for employees, versus those allowing employee-owned tablets on the network, was the most interesting takeaway. As our survey shows, 21% of companies currently purchase tablets for employees, but a staggering 51% of companies expect to purchase tablets for employees over the coming year (exhibit 11). In total, 67% of companies surveyed expect either to purchase tablets or provide support for employee- owned tablets over the coming year. 2. Companies are finding a broad set of uses for tablets, including general productivity, sales, field service/support, management, heathcare, and others. The iPad‟s operating system, iOS, has several important enterprise security and management features that have enabled the strong adoption in corporate environments. What‟s more, a growing set of powerful third-party business applications and the ability to create customized applications for business is creating new, powerful use cases.
  67. 67. Smartphone and tablets mean that we look to mid and high Long term end segment with knowledge customers. And in return they ask about good service and well consultant sale to keep their loyalty. They are not much sensitive about price if receiving value equivalent to their cost. Products& Sale volume Long-term & Loyalty High High Mid Mid Low Low
  68. 68. Challenges  Barriers.  Threatens from Macro Economy.  Threats or Opportunities
  69. 69. Barriers Smartphone and tablets are not entry segment, if you want cheap price should go Amazone and Ebay but no service . Barriers to this business: 1. Live display investment. 2. High consultant sale and well educate customers. 3. Training courses and offline operations for customers. 4. The great data of apps, movies, games, music… 5. Manage system. 6. Need big and long investment not a short-term money. 7. Experience in value retail market. That is not like a big and nice design store mean that customers will come but depend on what you give insight benefits to them???
  70. 70. Threats (Ac Niensel Source) Cooperate High operation Shortage of Economy cost production capital Increasing High High inflation Electric Inventory price: 15% Increasing Increasing petrol price gas price High bank Deflation Saving Cut down interest rate economy money Expenditure Look for Freeze Low income more property or jobless Customer promotion and cheap price Buy Vietnamese products or on package, gr
  71. 71. Threats or Opportunities Opportunities: 1. Customers in Mid and high segment are less affected by deflation of economy. 2. Customers will consider not only price but services and other extra values. 3. Chance for online shopping and refurbished business. 4. Time to invest into the bottom point and reorganize company. Competition: 1. Many companies go bankrupt as Wonderbuy, Bestcaring, 24h Nguyen Kim. 2. Cut down investment into expansion and new business. 3. Cut down cost for advertising, services….
  72. 72. Thank you!