Presentation by John Hurley, Research Manager, Employment and Change unit, Eurofound on the occasion of the EESC LMO conference on "Effective tools of active labour market policies during the crisis" (Brussels, 5 March 2013)
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Effective tools of active labour market policies during the crisis
1. European Economic and Social Committee
LMO
Effective tools of active labour market policies
during the crisis
John Hurley, Research Manager
Brussels – 5 March 2013
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2. Background
• Eurofound produced a short report on the Funding and
Operation of ALMPs during the crisis for EESC-LMO in
spring-summer 2010 – based on inputs from ten national
correspondents
• Some of the (tentative) conclusions follow – accompanied
by notes based on more recent evaluation literature,
labour market developments…
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3. Conclusions – with notes
ALMP funding
• Possible crowding out of active by increased passive measures funding
Make ALMPS funding more automatically anti-cyclical. But ALMP effectiveness is likely to
diminish during a downturn as job placement possibilities dwindle.
ALMP operation
• Activation via stricter PLMPs conditionality, eg. restricted duration of benefit entitlements,
greater supervision, more verifiable job search obligations
Also workfare, euro-jobs – but beware traps and increasing inequality
• Immediate or accelerated activation has become commonplace especially for younger
unemployed.
Disadvantaged youth is a category most difficult to serve – and evaluation results have not
been good. But if you get them on the right path at 20-24, you are getting 40 years of benefit.
Youth guarantees … but also apprenticeships, on the job training.
• Mixed public and private provision
But even in UK Job Centre Plus is still the main player. PESs remain predominantly public.
• Activate the inactive, at risk of employed and not just the unemployed
For eg. hidden unemployment of incapacity benefits
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4. ALMP evaluation
• Training and subsidised employment in private firms are generally evaluated positively though
often with small positive effects.
Long-run effects of training more positive than short-run. And training more appropriate in
recession .. But expensive
• Public job creation measures tend to have little if any positive employment effect.
May even be negative in terms of employment outcomes. But still useful for those at multiple risk
and the long-term unemployed … alternative social cohesion rationale for ALMPs.
• Favours ‘sanctions and services’ measures from a point of view of cost-effectiveness as well as
positive employment impacts
But note that NO ALMP measure has big effects – 10% is a big effect. Much recent analysis
focuses on the caseworker / unemployed relationship.
Start-up subsidies very positively evaluated in recent German research (Caliendo et al 2012).
Potential double dividends. But generally small schemes.
Outcomes differ by category of participant as well as by instrument
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Commission captures data on ALMPs expenditure. Expenditure on individual instruments has largely followed the lessons of the growing evaluation literature. LMServices (job search assistance, counselling etc) has increased its share. Training has declined. Both account for largest shares still of overall expenditure. Less direct job creation, more start up subsidies.
Beveridge curve relates unemp to vacancies. It presents the most important variables dealt with by active l m policies – we have a stock of unemployed and a stock of unfilled jobs/vacancies. How do these two variables co evolve. How do we match the unemployed to the vacancies.
Unemployment growing but labour shortages too. This is a powerful motivation for increased ALMP interventinons … Why? Structural change = retrain Why? Job matching frictions / problems = job search assistance