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Mortgage Market Outlook
Optimism in the Housing Market

Eric Hamilton
Home Mortgage Consultant
NMLSR ID 414113
A word about this presentation…

    The information contained within this presentation statistical
    information representing trends on a national level and is not
     a projection or forecast on future trends in homeownership.




                                                                     1
Agenda

Mortgage market outlook discussion topics:
 Consumer confidence
 Housing affordability and interest rates
 Home pricing & sales information
 Housing inventory update
 Distressed property information
 First-time homebuyer outlook




                                             2
Consumer confidence on the rise


                                                                         1




                                                                                      • Consumer
                                                                                      confidence has been
                                                                                      trending upward since
                                                                                      2009




1. Center for Market Research and Measurement Economic and Mortgage Market Outlook, Spring 2012.


                                                                                                              3
Housing affordability is high,
interest rates are low
                      2

                             • Housing continues to be
                             affordable as interest rates are at
                             historic lows and affordability is at
                             record highs.

                             • Interest rates are expected to
                             remain low throughout 2012




                                 Please note: These charts
                  2              reflect a national view. For
                                 local information, please see
                                 the local market reports on
                                 the NAR web site at:
                                 http://www.realtor.org/repo
                                 rts/local-market-reports



                             2. Center for Market Research and Measurement
                             Economic and Mortgage Market Outlook, Spring 2012.

                                                                                  4
Increasing home sales, decreasing housing
inventory

                              3

                                  • The charts to the left show that
                                  existing and new home sales are
                                  increasing

                                  What does this mean to you?
                                  •As home sales increase, inventory
                                  declines, decreasing the supply of
                                  homes available for sale

                              3
                                  • As the supply becomes more
                                  closely aligned with demand, home
                                  prices should increase




3. Data as of January 2012.
                                                                       5
New construction sales on the rise
                          4

                              • Home sales will likely
                              increase in 2012 (average
                              5.7% for existing and new),
                29%
        14%                   with the great majority of
                              this increase is estimated to
        5%       1%           come from new construction
                              (14%)

                              • The 2nd chart shows that
                              housing starts beyond 2012
                              are expected to increase
                              dramatically
                      5



                              For new construction sales
                              information in your area, go
                              to: http://hanleywood.com
                              or
                              http://www.realtor.org/rep
                              orts/local-market-reports

                              4. As of Feb 2012. An average of MBA, FNMA, and
                              NAR (FHLMC does not include condos)
                              5. Data as of February 2012.
                                                                                6
Home sales estimate
                                   • 40-45% of all home sales in 2011
                                   went to current homeowners – a
                                   combination of both primary residence
                                   and vacation usage
                               6


                                        30-35% of home sales went to
                                       FTHBs

                                        20-25% of home sales went to
                                       investors

                                   • Investor share may continue to
                                   increase somewhat as more REOs enter
                                   the market

6. Data as of December 2011.       • FTHBs are more likely to purchase
                                   move-in properties or properties with
                                   less damage

                                   • Investors are more apt to purchase
                                   properties they can add value to thereby
                                   increasing the return on their investment


                                                                               7
First-time homebuyers


                                                                         •    Chart shows a significant downward
                                                                              trend in the FTHB share of total
                                                                              home buyers since the FTHB tax
                                                                              credit expired in June 2010

                                                                              FTHB share of home purchases (not
                                                                              dollars) is expected to be about the
                                                                              same or slightly less than the
                                                                              current rate in 2012 (around 32 -
                                                                              35%)




7. NAR Realtor Confidence Index Survey as of December 2011.
8. NAR. Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, survey of customers who purchased. July 10 – June 11 (Does not include investors).
                                                                                                                                 8
First-time homebuyers have options
Potential FTHB market share decrease could be also be attributed to changes in
mortgage financing:
 Tighter credit requirements                            Over half of first time buyers
 Higher down payment requirements
                                                           (54%) chose FHA loans,
                                                          compared to 23% repeat
 Lack of down payment funds
                                                                home buyers9


But there is hope! Government loans have flexible approval guidelines that
may help FTHB:
FHA loans:                                 VA loans:
 Low down payment requirements
 No income restrictions                     No income restrictions
 Expanded qualifying ratios                 No minimum credit score for loans
 Nontraditional credit histories may         under $700,000
be accepted10
                                             Expanded qualifying ratios
 Automatic “Total Scorecard”
approval for qualified applicants            Nontraditional credit histories may
                                              be accepted11
Down payment assistance programs
available to qualified applicants
                                        9. Provided by NAR 2011 Profile of Home Buyers and
                                        Sellers report.
                                        10, 11. Homebuyer education required for customers who
                                        are approved solely on nontraditional credit histories.   9
First-time homebuyers have options

Wells Fargo Home Mortgage products and programs give
homebuyers financing options:


   Down payment assistance programs
   Community Development Mortgage Program
   Home Asset ManagementSM Account
   Easy-to-OwnSM Native American Home Loan
   Home OpportunitiesSM Program
   Easy-to-OwnSM Guaranteed Rural Housing Program




                                                       10
Summary

In conclusion, several indicators from research compiled shown today shows
positive signs for the housing market in 2012, potentially creating more
opportunities for you and your buyers:


 Housing is expected to remain extremely affordable
 Interest rates are expected to remain near or at all-time lows
 Home sales are increasing
 Homebuyer traffic is increasing with low inventory numbers occurring in some
  areas
 Home prices have begun to stabilize
 FHA & VA loans, along with down payment assistance programs, and other Wells
  Fargo product and program offerings, may provide additional financing options for
  first-time homebuyers




                                                                                      11
Why work with Wells Fargo?
     Wells Fargo Home Mortgage is there for you in
     all the ways you told us that matter most:
      We work with you to build business, approve buyers and close deals
       leveraging our StagecoachPriority® value package including:
            PriorityBuyer® preapprovals12
            Single Source® program
            Buyer ConnectionsSM capabilities




         12. A PriorityBuyer® preapproval is based on our preliminary review of credit information only and is not
         a commitment to lend. We will be able to offer a loan commitment upon verification of application
         information, satisfying all underwriting requirements and conditions, and providing an acceptable property,
         appraisal and title report. Not available on nonconforming products or for certain FHA transactions.

For real estate professionals only.                                                                                    12
Why work with Wells Fargo?
     StagecoachPriority® value package:

     Get the most out of the time and effort you spend showing homes with
     our reliable PriorityBuyer® preapproval letter13, it:
            Confirms your buyers are credit-checked and have completed
             the first loan decisioning phase
            Provides reliable, preapproved financing in clearly specified
             loan amounts and terms on official Wells Fargo letterhead




         13. A PriorityBuyer® preapproval is based on our preliminary review of credit information only and is not
         a commitment to lend. We will be able to offer a loan commitment upon verification of application
         information, satisfying all underwriting requirements and conditions, and providing an acceptable property,
         appraisal and title report. Not available on nonconforming products or for certain FHA transactions.
For real estate professionals only.                                                                                    13
Why work with Wells Fargo?
     StagecoachPriority® value package:

     Benefit from one connection to multiple lending solutions. Our Single
     Source® program offers products that span a variety of customer
     needs. You have the advantages of a single point of contact backed by
     an integrated team of product specialists who can lend in all 50 states.

     Products and programs                        Property types
        Conventional loans                          Single-family
        Renovation financing                        Condo & co-op
        Non-conforming (Jumbo portfolio) loans      Investment properties
        The Relocation Mortgage Program®            Vacation/second homes
        Downpayment assistant programs (DAPs)       REO and short sale properties
        FHA & VA loans
        New construction financing
        Home equity financing


For real estate professionals only.                                                   14
Why work with Wells Fargo?
     StagecoachPriority® value package:

     Team up for business opportunities! Through our Buyer
     ConnectionsSM capabilities, we have the ability to identify and
     introduce buyers and sellers who are not yet working with an agent
     and recommend those customers to REALTORS® and builders in local
     markets.




For real estate professionals only.                                       15
Why work with Wells Fargo?
     Leverage the strength of Wells Fargo


     We’re committed to being a leader in:
         Keeping you informed about products, programs and industry changes
         Sharing best practices from real estate industry experts
         Leading homebuyer educational resources including My
          FirstHomeSMonline educational program and My Home RoadmapSM
          service.14




         14. The My Home RoadmapSM service provides up to four sessions (an estimated 2 hours) of free
         financial coaching with a National Foundation for Credit Counseling (NFCC) certified counselor from a NFCC
         member organization that will be paid for by Wells Fargo Home Mortgage. At your option, you may
         purchase additional coaching sessions or services or decide to participate in another NFCC member agency
         program. Program may change or be discontinued at any time.

For real estate professionals only.                                                                                   16

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Mortgage Market

  • 1. Mortgage Market Outlook Optimism in the Housing Market Eric Hamilton Home Mortgage Consultant NMLSR ID 414113
  • 2. A word about this presentation… The information contained within this presentation statistical information representing trends on a national level and is not a projection or forecast on future trends in homeownership. 1
  • 3. Agenda Mortgage market outlook discussion topics:  Consumer confidence  Housing affordability and interest rates  Home pricing & sales information  Housing inventory update  Distressed property information  First-time homebuyer outlook 2
  • 4. Consumer confidence on the rise 1 • Consumer confidence has been trending upward since 2009 1. Center for Market Research and Measurement Economic and Mortgage Market Outlook, Spring 2012. 3
  • 5. Housing affordability is high, interest rates are low 2 • Housing continues to be affordable as interest rates are at historic lows and affordability is at record highs. • Interest rates are expected to remain low throughout 2012 Please note: These charts 2 reflect a national view. For local information, please see the local market reports on the NAR web site at: http://www.realtor.org/repo rts/local-market-reports 2. Center for Market Research and Measurement Economic and Mortgage Market Outlook, Spring 2012. 4
  • 6. Increasing home sales, decreasing housing inventory 3 • The charts to the left show that existing and new home sales are increasing What does this mean to you? •As home sales increase, inventory declines, decreasing the supply of homes available for sale 3 • As the supply becomes more closely aligned with demand, home prices should increase 3. Data as of January 2012. 5
  • 7. New construction sales on the rise 4 • Home sales will likely increase in 2012 (average 5.7% for existing and new), 29% 14% with the great majority of this increase is estimated to 5% 1% come from new construction (14%) • The 2nd chart shows that housing starts beyond 2012 are expected to increase dramatically 5 For new construction sales information in your area, go to: http://hanleywood.com or http://www.realtor.org/rep orts/local-market-reports 4. As of Feb 2012. An average of MBA, FNMA, and NAR (FHLMC does not include condos) 5. Data as of February 2012. 6
  • 8. Home sales estimate • 40-45% of all home sales in 2011 went to current homeowners – a combination of both primary residence and vacation usage 6  30-35% of home sales went to FTHBs  20-25% of home sales went to investors • Investor share may continue to increase somewhat as more REOs enter the market 6. Data as of December 2011. • FTHBs are more likely to purchase move-in properties or properties with less damage • Investors are more apt to purchase properties they can add value to thereby increasing the return on their investment 7
  • 9. First-time homebuyers • Chart shows a significant downward trend in the FTHB share of total home buyers since the FTHB tax credit expired in June 2010 FTHB share of home purchases (not dollars) is expected to be about the same or slightly less than the current rate in 2012 (around 32 - 35%) 7. NAR Realtor Confidence Index Survey as of December 2011. 8. NAR. Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, survey of customers who purchased. July 10 – June 11 (Does not include investors). 8
  • 10. First-time homebuyers have options Potential FTHB market share decrease could be also be attributed to changes in mortgage financing:  Tighter credit requirements Over half of first time buyers  Higher down payment requirements (54%) chose FHA loans, compared to 23% repeat  Lack of down payment funds home buyers9 But there is hope! Government loans have flexible approval guidelines that may help FTHB: FHA loans: VA loans:  Low down payment requirements  No income restrictions  No income restrictions  Expanded qualifying ratios  No minimum credit score for loans  Nontraditional credit histories may under $700,000 be accepted10  Expanded qualifying ratios  Automatic “Total Scorecard” approval for qualified applicants  Nontraditional credit histories may be accepted11 Down payment assistance programs available to qualified applicants 9. Provided by NAR 2011 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers report. 10, 11. Homebuyer education required for customers who are approved solely on nontraditional credit histories. 9
  • 11. First-time homebuyers have options Wells Fargo Home Mortgage products and programs give homebuyers financing options:  Down payment assistance programs  Community Development Mortgage Program  Home Asset ManagementSM Account  Easy-to-OwnSM Native American Home Loan  Home OpportunitiesSM Program  Easy-to-OwnSM Guaranteed Rural Housing Program 10
  • 12. Summary In conclusion, several indicators from research compiled shown today shows positive signs for the housing market in 2012, potentially creating more opportunities for you and your buyers:  Housing is expected to remain extremely affordable  Interest rates are expected to remain near or at all-time lows  Home sales are increasing  Homebuyer traffic is increasing with low inventory numbers occurring in some areas  Home prices have begun to stabilize  FHA & VA loans, along with down payment assistance programs, and other Wells Fargo product and program offerings, may provide additional financing options for first-time homebuyers 11
  • 13. Why work with Wells Fargo? Wells Fargo Home Mortgage is there for you in all the ways you told us that matter most:  We work with you to build business, approve buyers and close deals leveraging our StagecoachPriority® value package including:  PriorityBuyer® preapprovals12  Single Source® program  Buyer ConnectionsSM capabilities 12. A PriorityBuyer® preapproval is based on our preliminary review of credit information only and is not a commitment to lend. We will be able to offer a loan commitment upon verification of application information, satisfying all underwriting requirements and conditions, and providing an acceptable property, appraisal and title report. Not available on nonconforming products or for certain FHA transactions. For real estate professionals only. 12
  • 14. Why work with Wells Fargo? StagecoachPriority® value package: Get the most out of the time and effort you spend showing homes with our reliable PriorityBuyer® preapproval letter13, it:  Confirms your buyers are credit-checked and have completed the first loan decisioning phase  Provides reliable, preapproved financing in clearly specified loan amounts and terms on official Wells Fargo letterhead 13. A PriorityBuyer® preapproval is based on our preliminary review of credit information only and is not a commitment to lend. We will be able to offer a loan commitment upon verification of application information, satisfying all underwriting requirements and conditions, and providing an acceptable property, appraisal and title report. Not available on nonconforming products or for certain FHA transactions. For real estate professionals only. 13
  • 15. Why work with Wells Fargo? StagecoachPriority® value package: Benefit from one connection to multiple lending solutions. Our Single Source® program offers products that span a variety of customer needs. You have the advantages of a single point of contact backed by an integrated team of product specialists who can lend in all 50 states. Products and programs Property types  Conventional loans  Single-family  Renovation financing  Condo & co-op  Non-conforming (Jumbo portfolio) loans  Investment properties  The Relocation Mortgage Program®  Vacation/second homes  Downpayment assistant programs (DAPs)  REO and short sale properties  FHA & VA loans  New construction financing  Home equity financing For real estate professionals only. 14
  • 16. Why work with Wells Fargo? StagecoachPriority® value package: Team up for business opportunities! Through our Buyer ConnectionsSM capabilities, we have the ability to identify and introduce buyers and sellers who are not yet working with an agent and recommend those customers to REALTORS® and builders in local markets. For real estate professionals only. 15
  • 17. Why work with Wells Fargo? Leverage the strength of Wells Fargo We’re committed to being a leader in:  Keeping you informed about products, programs and industry changes  Sharing best practices from real estate industry experts  Leading homebuyer educational resources including My FirstHomeSMonline educational program and My Home RoadmapSM service.14 14. The My Home RoadmapSM service provides up to four sessions (an estimated 2 hours) of free financial coaching with a National Foundation for Credit Counseling (NFCC) certified counselor from a NFCC member organization that will be paid for by Wells Fargo Home Mortgage. At your option, you may purchase additional coaching sessions or services or decide to participate in another NFCC member agency program. Program may change or be discontinued at any time. For real estate professionals only. 16

Editor's Notes

  1. Before we get started I did want to let you that what I am about to share with you is not a projection or forecast of future trends in homeownership.
  2. Talking points:Read the slide:Each year, insights about what the mortgage market created by various industry experts. These insights can be helpful to mortgage professionals and may also be helpful in your business as a real estate professional or builder. Today, I would like to show you some trends in the mortgage market. We are hoping that what we present today could be more helpful to you than what you may hear heard from the media.Discussion: What have you been hearing in the media about the housing outlook? What have you been hearing from consumers? Is their confidence positive or negative? How does your market look in the areas listed here?(Invite attendees to ask questions and join in the discussion at any point.)
  3. Talking points: Read this slide. The upward trend in consumer confidence may create opportunities for you to capture those prospective homebuyers that have been waiting to sell their current homes and/or buy their first home because their confidence in the housing market has improved. Please note: Consumer confidence levels may vary from market to market. Discussion: Is this slide accurate with what you are experiencing in your market? If not, what have you heard about consumer confidence? Do you have prospective buyers that held off on making a move or homebuyer purchase decision until recently?
  4. Talking points: Read the slide. Affordability index explanation – what does this mean?An index of 100 means that the person making median income and purchasing a median priced home can afford 100% of the monthly payment. The lower the index, the less affordable the market.With interest rates continuing to be low and home pricing continuing to be affordable, now is a great time for homebuyers. Please note: Housing affordability may vary from market to market. To find out what is relevant in your area, please go to: http://www.realtor.org/reports/local-market-reports Discussion: Do potential consumers understand/realize this current market situation? If not, how can we get the word out? If so, are they taking advantage or what are they waiting for? Is the information listed in this slide applicable in your market? If not, what is the affordability index in your area?
  5. Talking points: Read the slide. Some areas, may be experiencing a shortage of housing inventory, like what is presented above. As a result, these areas may be more of a seller’s market than a buyer’s market. Discussion:What are inventory levels like in your market? Do the national figures reflect what you are seeing in your area? Is your market a seller’s market or buyer’s market? Have you experienced a short fall of housing in your market or some areas in your market? Have you received multiple bids on a single home in 2012?
  6. Talking points: Read the slide. New construction home sales look very positive over the next few years. Now may the time to talk with your local builder to discuss their plans for building homes in the next few years. To find out what is relevant in your area, go to: http://hanleywood.com or http://www.realtor.org/reports/local-market-reports Discussion: Is your market experiencing an increase in sales of new construction homes and/or existing homes?If not, what trends are you seeing in home sales?
  7. Talking points: Read the slide. This slide gives an overview of who (what homebuyer groups: FTHB, current homeowner, investor) is buying homes and their market share.The condition of these properties may drive who purchases the properties. FTHBs are more likely to purchase move-in properties or properties with less damage. Investors are more apt to purchase properties they can add value to thereby increasing the return on their investment. Discussion points: Is this what you are seeing in the local market? What challenges are you seeing with each of these buyers?
  8. Talking points: Now let’s talk a little bit about the first-time homebuyer market. Read the slide. While there is a downward trend in the percentage of first-time homebuyers buying a home, opportunity is still significant for this homebuying group. As discussed in the previous slides, home affordability and low interest rates make this a great time for your FTHB clients to buy their first home. Discussion: What are some challenges your first-time homebuyers are seeing in your market? The next slide discuss options for some of the challenges that you may be having.
  9. Talking points: Read the slide.Market conditions currently favor first-time homebuyers. As mentioned in the previous slides, historically low interest rates, attractive prices, and a variety of products and programs make this an ideal time to purchase a home.For more information about FHA and VA loans, I can set-up a separate meeting to discuss these in detail.
  10. Talking points: Read the slide. Down payment assistance programs may be available to help cover down payment costs. At Wells Fargo, we have a team that manages all approved down payment assistance and community assistance programs available to our customers. This helps our team, as we can readily view any local approved programs that may help your qualified buyer purchase a home. Wells Fargo supports the following assistance programs (called Community Assistance Programs) for our customers & yours: Down Payment Assistance Programs (DAPs) Mortgage Revenue Bonds (MRBs) Mortgage Credit Certificates (MCCs) FHA Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher AssistanceIt important to note that WFHM will not allow use of a community assistance program if it does not meet the best interest of the client. In addition to government loan financing and down payment assistance programs, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage has other programs that may be able to assist homebuyers. If you would like to know more about these options, I would be happy to set-up another meeting discuss these in more detail Community Development Mortgage Program Home Asset Management Account Native American Home Lending Program Home Opportunities Program Easy to Own Guaranteed Rural Housing Program
  11. Talking points: Read the slide.In any market, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage has financing programs that may be able to help your buyer’s find financing options, helping you serve more buyer’s needs.