CK2018: Barriers and Global Innovations for Electric Bus Fleets
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12th Bus Karo at #CK2018 | Sebastian Castellanos
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CK2018: Barriers and Global Innovations for Electric Bus Fleets
- 1. Sebastián Castellanos – SCastellanos@wri.org Barriers and global innovations for the adoption of electric bus fleets Connect Karo 2018
- 2. THE CURRENT GLOBAL VEHICLE STOCK IS CLOSE TO 1.7 BILLION WHO, “Global Health Observatory data repository”, 2015 Photo: B137
- 3. Sitty and Taft, “What will the global light-duty vehicle fleet look like through 2050?”, 2016 Photo: Whitehotpix AND COULD INCREASE TO 3.87 BILLION BY 2050
- 4. IEA, 2008 WITH MOST GROWTH HAPPENING IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES
- 5. TO COMPLY WITH A <2DS, THE TRANSPORT SECTOR MUST BE COMPLETELY DECARBONIZED BY 2060 [Left] IEA, “Global EV Outlook”, 2017. [Right] IEA, authors with data from “CO2 Emissions from fuel combustion: Highlights”, 2015 Transport
- 6. Fossil fueled vehicle stock: 1.7 billion CURRENT PENETRATION OF EV’S IS BUT A DROP IN THE OCEAN, HOWEVER IT’S EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE COMING YEARS Authors with data from IEA, “Global EV Outlook”, 2017. Current stock: 2 million EVs
- 8. NEW VEHICLE SALES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 35% ELECTRIC BY 2040 Source: BNEF, “Electric Vehicle Outlook”, 2017
- 9. 1. Nykvist and Nilsson “Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles”, 2015, ELECTRIC VEHICLE BATTERY PRICES ARE FALLING FAST $227/kWh $150/kWh1
- 10. THE MARKET IS GEARING UP FOR THE CHALLENGE
- 11. AND SO ARE SOME GOVERNMENTS
- 12. WILL THIS BE ENOUGH?
- 13. BUSES ARE A PREDOMINANT MODE OF TRANSPORT FOR LARGE PARTS OF THE POPULATION, AND THEY ARE GENERATING AN IMPORTANT PART OF THE EXTERNALITIES FROM THE TRANSPORT SECTOR 23% of CO2 55% of PM10 40% of NOX But 25% of fuel & 20% of CO2 Shenzhen 0.5% of total vehicle fleet5% of total vehicle fleet Bogotá
- 14. ALREADY OVER 200 CITIES HAVE IMPLEMENTED ELECTRIC OR HYBRID BUSES AS PART OF THEIR FLEETS Source: authors
- 15. ALTHOUGH CAPEX IS HIGHER, ELECTRIC BUSES ARE ALREADY COMPETITIVE WHEN COMPARED TO DIESEL WHEN LOOKING AT TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP ∆ = 13%
- 16. TRANSITIONING TO ELECTRIC BUSES MAKES SENSE FROM A HEALTH PERSPECTIVE 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Diesel (150 ppm +) (Euro II) Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (15 ppm) (Euro V- VI) Natural Gas (3WC) Electric* Annual Local Air Pollutants Tailpipe Emissions (tonnes) - México Nitrogen Oxide (Nox) Carbon Monoxide (CO) Total Hydrocarbons (THC) Particulate Matter (PM)
- 17. ELECTRIC BUSES ARE INHERENTLY MORE EFFICIENT THAN DIESEL VEHICLES, SO IT (ALMOST ALWAYS) MAKES SENSE FROM AN ENERGY AND CLIMATE PERSPECTIVE Source: authors with information from IEA 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 AnnualCO2emissions(tons)perbus Electric buses CO2 emissions threshold for electric buses compared to Euro V
- 18. HOWEVER OTHER CONSIDERATIONS NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT AT THE SUBNATIONAL LEVEL Source: authors with information from IEA
- 19. AND THERE ARE STILL OTHER BARRIERS HAMPERING THIS TRANSITION FROM BECOMING MASSIVE More expensive vehicles and infrastructure Fear of change and lack of knowledge Technology readiness (e.g. range) Outdated procurement models
- 20. Seattle: Hybrid-electric, Opportunity charging Foothill: Battery electric Toronto: Hybrid-electric Philadelphia: Hybrid- electric Bogota: Hybrid-electric Curitiba: Hybrid-electric Auckland: Hybrid- electric, Battery electric Tianjin: Battery Electric Zhuhai: Battery Electric Shenzhen: Battery Electric Nanjing: Battery Electric Gumi: Opportunity Charging Berlin: Opportunity Charging Turin: Opportunity Charging Colombo: Hybrid electric, Battery electric Singapore: Hybrid electric, Battery electric London: Hybrid electric, Battery electric Paris: Hybrid electric, Battery electric Gothenburg: Hybrid electric, Battery electric Stockholm: Hybrid electric Rome: Battery Electric Americas Asia/Pacific Europe N. America S. America Asia Oceania Europe 6 2 7 1 9 WE CONDUCTED RESEARCH TO UNDERSTAND WHAT 25 CITIES AROUND THE WORLD HAVE BEEN DOING TO ACHIEVE IMPLEMENTATION 41% 15% 44% Technology mix Battery electric Opportunity charging Hybrid- electric
- 21. WE IDENTIFIED SOME KEY TRENDS IN THE RESEARCH WE CONDUCTED 1 2 3 4 New stakeholders Changes in procurement Technological innovations Public sector support
- 22. NEW STAKEHOLDERS: FOOTHILL, CALIFORNIA Utilities providing long term price stability and bulk purchase discounts
- 23. CHANGES IN PROCUREMENT: SHENZHEN, CHINA Bus companies and third parties purchase buses and lease them to operators
- 24. NEW OPERATION MODES: BEIJING, CHINA Battery depots and swapping machines
- 25. PUBLIC SECTOR SUPPORT: BOGOTÁ, COLOMBIA The Clean Technology Fund provided a $40M loan to purchase buses Tax incentives that reduce CapEx
- 26. YES EV’S HAVE HIGHER CAPEX EV’S HAVE OPERATIONAL LIMITATIONS EV’S BRING UPON A CULTURE SHOCK
- 27. BUT MANY INNOVATIONS ACROSS THE WORLD THAT ALLOW CITIES TO OVERCOME THESE BARRIERS THE MOMENT IS NOW!
- 28. Sebastián Castellanos – SCastellanos@wri.org Barriers and global innovations for the adoption of electric bus fleets Connect Karo 2018
Notes de l'éditeur
- A 2DS would require decarbonization by 2100 The transport sector represents 23% of CO2 emissions from fuel combustión around the world, however this figure is 27% for Africa and 36% for LAC, where car ownership is still low.
- Buses generan más emisiones a pesar de haber menos cantidad Las flotas de buses normalmente ya están sujetas a regulación por los gobiernos locales Es más fácil lidiar con pocos interlocutors (operadores)
- Geographical distribution of cities with hybrid and electric buses – US, Europe, East Asia
- 3 main barriers for implementation, however innovation to overcome these barriers has happened around the world. Barrier 1: Innovative business models Barrier 2: deeper involvement of manufacturers Barrier 3: Technology is more of a perceived barrier, since there are already cities that have tested extensively these technologies (10+ years).
- Para tratar de identificar las tendencias a nivel mundial y las posibles barreras que otras ciudades han enfrentado en estas implementaciones, hicimos una investigación extensiva de casos reales a nivel mundial. Quisimos tener una distribución global y de diferentes tecnologías, para asegurarnos de encontrar casos que fueran relevantes para América Latina. Los criterios principales para escoger estas ciudades fueron: El tamaño de la flota Los mecanismos innovadores de implementación (financiamiento, fuentes de recursos) Distribución geográfica.
- Manufacturers assuming new responsibilities Tranining for operators and longer maintenance contracts. Providing financing Offering complete solution packages that include charging infrastructure. Electricity companies providing: Long-term electricity price stability and lower prices (i.e. bulk discounts) - Foothill Paying for charging infrastructure
- Providing other ways of paying for the most expensive assets (e.g. buses, batteries, charging infrastructure) such as by leasing them e.g. Shenzen, USA Reducing the cost of financing by providing guarantees and concessional loans e.g. Bogotá Longer depreciation periods to pay for additional costs e.g. Brazil
- Opportunity Charging: Tianjin Tianjin battery electric buses are recharged via charging stations placed along their route, which allows operators to keep buses running without pulling them into a depot at a separate location. Inductive Charging/Top-up: Torino Torino uses techniques deigned by Conductix-Wampfler, using underground charging pads to connect wirelessly to coils below the buses. By recharging the buses throughout their routes (topping up), operators are able to keep batteries close to 100% charged, using smaller batteries that are lighter and less expensive. Battery Swapping: Rome Rome electric minibuses have the ideal size and mobility to function in the city center where streets are small. The bus operator ATAC found that with the smaller batteries buses had sufficient range to run a full route, and it was more economical to swap old batteries at the bus depot after service, than to install charging infrastructure.
- Providing grants to pay for additional investment costs One-time payments Throughout the life of the asset e.g. USA, London Tax incentives Corporation tax Import duties VAT e.g. Bogotá