Session 6 - Better Growth Better Climate
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Speaker | Madhav Pai - EMBARQ India
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Session 6 - Better Growth Better Climate
- 1. Better Growth Better Climate Madhav Pai connectkaro.org
- 3. The Global New Climate Economy Partnership Global Commission Chaired by Felipe Calderón and Nicholas Stern Comprising 24 members including: • former heads of government • finance ministers • leaders in business, finance and economics Economic Advisory Panel 14 world leading economists, chaired by Professor Lord Nicholas Stern Includes: Two Nobel prize winners: Daniel Kahneman and Michael Spence 7 Commissioning Countries Colombia Ethiopia Indonesia Norway Sweden South Korea United Kingdom 8 Partner Research Institutes Climate Policy Initiative (USA) Ethiopian Development and Research Institute Indian Centre for Research on Economic Relations (ICRIER) Global Green Growth Institute (South Korea) London School of Economics (UK) Stockholm Environment Institute (Sweden) Tsinghua University (China) World Resources Institute (USA)
- 4. Members of the Global Commission Jean Pascal Tricoire CEO, Schneider Electric Felipe Calderón (Chair) Former President, Mexico Ingrid Bonde CFO and Deputy CEO, Vattenfall Sharan Burrow General Secretary, International Trade Union Confederation Chen Yuan Former Chairman, Chinese Development Bank Helen Clark Administrator, UNDP Luísa Diogo Former Prime Minister, Mozambique Dan Doctoroff Former CEO, Bloomberg S. (Kris) Gopalakrishnan Co-founder, Infosys Angel Gurría Secretary General, OECD Chad Holliday Chairman-designate, Shell Sri Mulyani Indrawati Managing Director and COO, World Bank Caio Koch Weser Vice Chairman, Deutsche Bank Ricardo Lagos Former President, Chile Michel Liès CEO, Swiss Re Trevor Manuel Former Finance Minister, South Africa Takehiko Nakao President, Asian Development Bank Eduardo Paes Mayor, Rio de Janeiro Annise Parker Mayor, Houston Paul Polman CEO, Unilever Nicholas Stern (Vice-Chair) IG Patel Professor at the London School of Economics and Political Science Zhu Levin Former CEO, China International Capital Corporation Jens Stoltenberg Former Prime Minister, Norway Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director, International Energy Agency Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala Minister of Finance, Nigeria Naina Lal Kidwai Chairman, HSBC India Suma Chakrabarti President, EBRD Kristin Skogen Lund Director General, Confederation of Norwegian Enterprise
- 5. Key drivers of growth and climate performance RESOURCE EFFICIENCY INNOVATION INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT HIGH QUALITY, RESILIENT, INCLUSIVE = BETTER GROWTH ENERG Y LAND USE CITIES WIDER ECONOMY
- 6. CITIES: Rapidly growing urban areas are key drivers of economic growth and emissions Sources: Population split from 2011, GDP split estimate from Grubler et al 2007 cited in GEA 2012, Energy use split from GEA 2005, Emissions from World Energy Outlook 2006 60% of population 80% of GDP70% of energy consumption
- 7. 3C’s: New Model of Urban Development 1. Compact urban growth 2. Connected infrastructure 3. Coordinated governance Managed expansion, mixed-use urban form, good quality urban design Smarter transport systems, smarter utilities, smart grids Integrated land use and transport authorities, integrated planning, PPPs
- 8. A different model of urban development is possible: Atlanta and Barcelona have similar populations and wealth levels but very different carbon productivities Atlanta’s built-up area Barcelona’s built-up area Population: 5.26 million Total area: 16,605 km2 Urban area: 7692 km2 Transport carbon emissions: 6.9 tonnes CO2 p.c. Population: 5 million Total area: 3263 km2 Urban area: 648 km2 Transport carbon emissions: 1.2 tonnes CO2 p.c. ATLANTA BARCELONA Source: LSE research, drawing on data from Atlanta Regional Commission (2014), Autoritat del Transport Metropolita (Area de Barcelona) (2013), GenCat (2013), UCSB (2014), D’Onofrio (2014), based on latest data.
- 9. A range of smart transport systems have taken off in numerous cities worldwide since 2000 Source: Embarq 2013
- 10. There are affordable mass transit solutions: BRT can be delivered at 15% of the cost of a metro Number of cities (Source: Wright 2007) Implementing smart transport infrastructures such as Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) has transformative effects Cities
- 11. 1995 201020001990 20142005 USD/MWh Current fossil fuel range, indicative Solar PV, historical Best utility-scale project, 2014 Sources: Citi Research 2012; G. F Nemet, “Beyond the learning curve”, Energy Policy 34, 3218-3232 (2006) ENERGY: The cost of solar PV is dropping fast
- 12. ENERGY: Wind turbines have evolved to have 100 times more power generation capabilities than 30 years ago Sources: Cityfix.com, NY Times, LSE and NCE Cities – Paper 03 Accessibility in Cities: Transport and Urban Form, p 10-11
- 13. Energy in Cities1. Building Sector: • Improved design • Insulation • Lighting and heating/cooling • Small scale renewables Leeds, UK • Payback < 3 years • Domestic sector emission reductions of 16% 2. Transport Sector: • Efficient vehicles • Cleaner fuels • Public Transport 3. Waste Management: • Recylcing • Landfill gas capture • Composting of waste Lima-Callao, Peru • Payback 2.6 years • Transport related emission reductions of 26% by 2025 Kolkata, India: • Payback 11.8 years • Waste related emission reductions of 41% by 2025
- 14. INNOVATION: Google is becoming one of the biggest “clean tech” companies on the planet Source: Google, Greentech Media
- 15. Savings in global infrastructure spending to 2030 from more compact, connected urban development Source: New Climate Economy analysis. $3 trillion
- 16. Recommendations of Global Commission • Make better planned urban development a central element of national economic development strategies 1. BETTER URBANISATION • Consider greater fiscal autonomy for cities to unleash investment in smarter urban infrastructure 2. FISCAL AUTONOMY • Eliminate fuel subsidies, congestion charging, land and development taxes, density bonuses 3. TAX REFORM • Minimum density standards, maximum parking requirements, growth boundaries 4. REGULATORY REFORM
- 17. Recommendations of Global Commission • Redirect existing infrastructure funding towards more compact, connected and coordinated urban infrastructure, including MDB financing 5. REDIRECT INVESTMENT • Strengthen role of strategic planning at national, regional, and city levels including setting up integrated land use and transport authorities 6. PLANNING AND GOVERNANCE • Land Value Capture, enhancing own source revenue to boost creditworthiness, ‘city bonds’ 7. FINANCING MODELS
- 18. connectkaro.org
Editor's Notes
- THANK THE THREE GLOBAL COMMISSIONERS and CHINESE EAP MEMBER. Governor Chen Yuan – Vice Chairman CPPCC - Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. (Global Commissioner) President Chen Jining – President of Tsinghua. Zhu Levin (Global Commissioner) Fan Gang – member of the Economics Advisory Panel. AND FAN GANG
- The Commission has focused on three drivers of growth that affect every sector of the economy: resource efficiency, infrastructure investment, and innovation. There are major opportunities in three socio-economic systems: cities, land use, and energy systems. These three systems are crucial to the economy and emissions and can unlock multiple economic, social, and environmental benefits. Note: Cities include urban transport. Land use includes forests. Innovations include economy-wide innovation
- The urban share of the global population is expected to rise to 70% by 2050, with 90% of this growth coming in developing countries. The way that this urbanisation takes place will disproportionately affect both the economy and climate. Globally, $3 tn could be saved through 2030 by developing more compact, connected, and coordinated cities.
- To summarise – what are the key elements?
- UPDATED GRAPH (10 December 2014) Comparing Atlanta and Barcelona demonstrates what is possible through compact, coordinated, and connected urban development. Uncoordinated sprawl leads to higher costs of infrastructure, public service delivery, and transport. Urban sprawl in the US alone adds about $400bn per year. Compact, connected urban development – higher densities, mixed-use neighbourhoods, and walkable/transit-oriented environments – can unlock more productive and climate-friendly cities.
- No underlying data
- Solar PV module prices have fallen 80% since 2008 and now cost half of what they did in 2010. At least 53 solar PV plants over 50 MW were operating by early 2014 in at least 13 countries; rooftop solar for homes is competitive with retail electricity prices in Australia, Brazil, Denmark, Germany, and Italy. Note: This chart shows indicative levelized costs for solar photovoltaics from 1990 to 2012, with the costs for the best utility-scale project in 2013-2014 indicated (Austin Energy in Texas). The precise level is indicative of typical costs for utility-scale projects in relatively sunny regions. Actual costs can vary up or down by at least 50% depending on solar resources, and even more with local cost of capital. Assuming 17% capacity factor, and 9.25% cost of capital.
- New materials have made wind turbines bigger, stronger, and more efficient. Today’s turbines produce more power per land area used and dollar invested. In 1990, wind power was 3-4x more expensive than fossil fuel electricity, but onshore wind is now on par with or lower than fossil fuels in Australia, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Turkey, and the US. Further innovations, such as digital technology that enables “smart wind” that can be more easily integrated into electric grids, make it even more feasible and attractive. Graph Source (tower added): http://www.forbes.com/sites/williampentland/2014/01/10/micro-windmills-may-one-day-power-your-smart-phone/
- This chart shows indicative levelized costs for solar photovoltaics from 1990 to 2012, with the costs for the best utility-scale project in 2013-2014 indicated (Austin Energy in Texas). The precise level is indicative of typical costs for utility-scale projects in relatively sunny regions. Actual costs can vary up or down by at least 50% depending on solar resources, and even more with local cost of capital. Assuming 17% capacity factor, and 9.25% cost of capital.
- Nest (top left) is an intelligent thermostat that learns your schedule and adjusts heating and cooling accordingly. Since October 2011, Nests have saved 2 billion kWh. Google is also driving energy efficient data centres and operations – their data centres use 50% less energy than the typical one. They have invested over $1 billion in renewable energy projects and are pioneering autonomous vehicles. http://www.google.com/about/datacenters/efficiency/internal/#temperature http://www.google.com/about/datacenters/efficiency/internal/#water-and-cooling