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Commodity Savings Funds: Asset allocation and spending rules Libreville, Gabon March 28-30, 2008 Stรฉphane Piot, CFA Lead Financial Officer Sovereign Investments Partnerships World Bank Treasury
Road Map ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Several countries have setup oil funds to avoid oil curse ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Commodity savings and heritage funds ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Examples of savings & stabilization funds Source: Morgan Stanley, Wikipedia, and others Country AUM  (US$ bn) Inception Year Source Purpose Abu Dhabi 350 to 875 N/A Oil Saving Norway 350 1990 Oil Saving Kuwait 250 1960 Oil Saving Russia 160 2004 Oil Both Qatar 50 2000 Oil and gas Saving Alaska  40 1976 Oil Saving Kazakhstan 18 2000 Oil, gas, metals Both Alberta  16 1976 Oil Saving Chile 10 1985 Copper Both Botswana 7.5 1966 Diamonds Saving Timor-Leste 2 2005 Oil Saving Azerbaijan 2 1999 Oil Saving Trinidad &  Tobago 2 2007 Oil & Gas Both
Important considerations in designing commodity funds ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Sterilizing foreign currency inflows ,[object Object],Budget:  domestic investments Investment Income FUND Liquidity  Investments Commodity revenues Finance Income
Creating permanent wealth by transferring commodity wealth into financial wealth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Risk habitat of Funds Central bank  Reserves &  Stabilization  funds Funds for the future Pension funds State owned enterprises &  government holding companies Money markets High grade fixed income Small, if any, allocation to corporate Global fixed income Global equity Hedge funds Real estate Commodities Strategic corporate stakes Russia Stabilization Fund Chilean Stabilization Fund Central Bank of Nigeria Central Bank of Algeria CB of Malaysia CB of Indonesia Temasek, Singapore Russia Pension Fund Chile Pension Reserve Fund Singapore GIC China Investment Corp Bank of Koreaโ€”KIC Norway Pension (Oil) Fund
Strategic Asset allocation is critical
Expect Volatility
The path from oil to equities Data from 1983 to 2007 Graph is based on a speech by Knut Kjaer (Norges Bank Investment Management) โ€“ โ€œfrom oil to equitiesโ€ ,[object Object]
Bonds and stocks do well when oil and gas prices are falling
Commodity fund design OBJECTIVE DESIGN Capital preservation for future spending  Saving rule, spending rule or guideline based on total wealth that assures minimum annual income to government and meets future spending needs Meet current income needs Generating independent source of foreign currency income Investment in diversified portfolio of risk assets for return Smoothing of total foreign currency revenues Investment in financial assets with low or negative correlation to commodities Sterilizing foreign currency inflows Investment only in overseas assets Domestic investments flow through budget process
Spending rules used by commodity savings & stabilization funds ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Other rules used by commodity savings & stabilization funds ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Commodity saving fund model Designed by Treasuryโ€™s asset allocation team to support policy makers in designing spending/saving rules and making asset allocation decisions
Model objective: test robustness of fund design under uncertainty Model is also a fiscal planning tool for medium term planning OBJECTIVES Fiscal budget requirements Capital preservation Future spending needs Fiscal smoothing TEST KEY DESIGN FEATURES SPENDING GUIDELINES STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION RISK SCENARIOS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],INVESTMENT RETURNS CORRELATION Assumptions OUTCOMES Assess distribution of outcomes versus objectives Adjust rules if necessary  Retest
Sovereign Commodity Fund Workbench
Institutional solutions for fund management ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Institutional characteristics for successful long term public wealth management ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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Les fonds des ressources naturelles et les politiques d'investissement, Stephan Piot, BM

  • 1. Commodity Savings Funds: Asset allocation and spending rules Libreville, Gabon March 28-30, 2008 Stรฉphane Piot, CFA Lead Financial Officer Sovereign Investments Partnerships World Bank Treasury
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5. Examples of savings & stabilization funds Source: Morgan Stanley, Wikipedia, and others Country AUM (US$ bn) Inception Year Source Purpose Abu Dhabi 350 to 875 N/A Oil Saving Norway 350 1990 Oil Saving Kuwait 250 1960 Oil Saving Russia 160 2004 Oil Both Qatar 50 2000 Oil and gas Saving Alaska 40 1976 Oil Saving Kazakhstan 18 2000 Oil, gas, metals Both Alberta 16 1976 Oil Saving Chile 10 1985 Copper Both Botswana 7.5 1966 Diamonds Saving Timor-Leste 2 2005 Oil Saving Azerbaijan 2 1999 Oil Saving Trinidad & Tobago 2 2007 Oil & Gas Both
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. Risk habitat of Funds Central bank Reserves & Stabilization funds Funds for the future Pension funds State owned enterprises & government holding companies Money markets High grade fixed income Small, if any, allocation to corporate Global fixed income Global equity Hedge funds Real estate Commodities Strategic corporate stakes Russia Stabilization Fund Chilean Stabilization Fund Central Bank of Nigeria Central Bank of Algeria CB of Malaysia CB of Indonesia Temasek, Singapore Russia Pension Fund Chile Pension Reserve Fund Singapore GIC China Investment Corp Bank of Koreaโ€”KIC Norway Pension (Oil) Fund
  • 12.
  • 13. Bonds and stocks do well when oil and gas prices are falling
  • 14. Commodity fund design OBJECTIVE DESIGN Capital preservation for future spending Saving rule, spending rule or guideline based on total wealth that assures minimum annual income to government and meets future spending needs Meet current income needs Generating independent source of foreign currency income Investment in diversified portfolio of risk assets for return Smoothing of total foreign currency revenues Investment in financial assets with low or negative correlation to commodities Sterilizing foreign currency inflows Investment only in overseas assets Domestic investments flow through budget process
  • 15.
  • 16.
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  • 18.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22. ย