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14. Market Outlook - Stephen Kell

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Grains and oilseeds outlook and marketing strategies for 2018.

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14. Market Outlook - Stephen Kell

  1. 1. PARRISH & HEIMBECKER, LIMITED “MARKETING CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES” Stephen Kell |
  2. 2. USDA - Corn
  3. 3. US Corn Use
  4. 4. US Corn : Stocks to Use
  5. 5. Stocks to Use – Relates to Price
  6. 6. Location of Sotcks - Corn
  7. 7. The “Shape” of the Corn Market
  8. 8. The “Shape” of the Corn Market  ‘14. ‘15,’16, & ‘17 all had big corn crops.  Stocks to Use ratio’s over 12% in all 4 years  The December futures contract never goes off the board higher than it was in January.  We get a weather rally in June or July  Corn price collapses after pollination.
  9. 9. USDA - Soybeans
  10. 10. Growth in US Soybean Demand
  11. 11. Growth in World Soybean Demand
  12. 12. Chinese Soybean Demand
  13. 13. Soybean Demand Pull
  14. 14. Soybeans – Stocks to Use & Price
  15. 15. Ontario Soft Wheat
  16. 16. USDA Wheat – Supply and Distribution
  17. 17. USDA Wheat – Stocks by Class
  18. 18. Marketing Wheat in a Carry
  19. 19. Marketing in an inverse
  20. 20. Growth in Global Demand
  21. 21. World Coarse Grain - Demand exceeds Supply
  22. 22. Managing Currency Risk  US Grain Price  CBOT Jan Soys $10.05  US Basis $ -0.25  US dollar cash price $ 9.80 $0.72 Cent Dollar US dollar cash price $ 9.80 At a $0.72 Cdn $ $13.61 CBOT Jan Soys $10.05 Canadian Basis $ 3.56 Canadian Cash Price $13.61 $500.07 per tonne
  23. 23. Managing Currency Risk  US Grain Price  CBOT Jan Soys $10.05  US Basis $ -0.25  US dollar cash price $ 9.80 $0.80 Cent Dollar US dollar cash price $9.80 At a $0.77 Cdn $ $12.25 CBOT Jan Soys $10.05 Canadian Basis $ 2.20 Canadian Cash Price $12.25 $450.10 per tonne
  24. 24. US Dollar
  25. 25. New Milling Capacity

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