1. Financial Markets Advisory Bankers’ Association for Risk Managers Indonesia Risk Forum March 18, 2009 Jakarta What is ahead of us? Economic pressure or time to pick up?

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4. Credit Crisis 1 CAUSES

7. Oil USD PER BARREL Bron: Bloomberg Historical Overview Bubble Correction

9. Capital & Accounting Standards 2

12. Comparison 1929 / 2007 3

16. Mechanism of Threat 4

17. Credit Crunch – The mechanism of thread Write Off Loans (Mortgages etc.) Weakening Bank Balance sheet Less Lending Lower economic growth More corporate defaults

18. Measures for Prevention 5

21. What lies ahead? 6

24. Credit Crunch – Crisis and Risk Management What lies ahead? Developments Real Economy. Producers’ confidence

25. Credit Crunch – Crisis and Risk Management What lies ahead? Developments Industrial Production (% yoy) USA -10,0 Japan -30,8 Eurozone -12,0 Netherlands -13,3 Brazil -15,5 Russia -15,9 India -2,0 China +5,7 PM: Taiwan -43,1

26. Credit Crunch – Crisis and Risk Management What lies ahead? Developments Money Market Interest rates

27. Crisis & Risk Management 7

36. Questions?