La crise sanitaire, économique et énergétique provoquée par le coronavirus a bouleversé les grands équilibres mondiaux. Dans le domaine de l'énergie, l'effondrement de la demande, provoquée par les mesures de confinement, a entraîné le prix des matières premières à des niveaux historiquement bas, mettant en péril l'industrie de ce secteur. Ce rapport (en anglais) vise à détailler comment le coronavirus a affecté l'économie mondiale et les marchés énergétiques, avec un focus sur le marché pétrolier, particulièrement touché par cette crise. Les perspectives d'avenir pour la consommation, la production et les prix des différentes matières premières (pétrole, gaz naturel, charbon et électricité) sont analysées au sein de cette publication, afin de donner une idée globale du futur secteur énergétique. Une dernière partie, rédigée par Ronan Fleckstein, est consacrée aux effets de cette crise sur l'économie, le secteur hospitaliers et la chute des revenus pétroliers des Etats africains. Ce rapport est également disponible sur le site américain Energy Central : https://energycentral.com/c/og/global-oil-market-and-covid-19-crisis-impact-and-forecast N'hésitez pas à partager, télécharger ou commenter cette publication.

1. May 2020 Report
THE GLOBAL OIL MARKET
AND THE COVID-19 CRISIS:
IMPACT AND FORECAST

2. SUMMARY
I. The lockdown of the global economy
▶ COVID-19: FROM A LOCAL HEALTH ISSUE TO A GLOBAL PANDEMIC
▶ GLOBAL ECONOMY: FROM GROWTH TO RECESSION (JAN - MAR 2020)
II.. An oil demand and supply shock: Analysis
▶ THE OIL INDUSTRY AND CRUDE OIL MARKET
▶ FOCUS ON OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND FUNDAMENTALS
▶ OIL INDUSTRY IN TURMOIL: GLOBAL ANALYSIS
III. Key Expectations in the near future for the energy industry
▶ COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW FOR BRENT AND WTI FUTURE
▶ THE FUTURE BALANCE OF OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND
▶ FURTHER ANALYSIS ON OTHER COMMODITIES: NATURAL GAS
▶ FURTHER ANALYSIS ON OTHER COMMODITIES: COAL
▶ FURTHER ANALYSIS ON OTHER COMMODITIES: ELECTRICITY
IV. Additional Analysis
About the contributors
Sources
2
3
4
5
8
9
11
14
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
25
26

3. I. The lockdown of the
global economy
3

4. On December 31, 2019,
Chinese authorities alerted the
World Health Organization of
pneumonia of unknown cause
cases in Wuhan, located in the
Hubei province.
As of January 23, over 800 cases
of Covid-19 were confirmed
globally across 20 regions in
China and 9 countries.
The Chinese New Year was to be
celebrated on January 24 for all
Chinese, with a maximal risk of
high travel volumes and mass
gatherings. Wuhan city was
placed in quarantine that day as
well as adjacent cities in the
region.
Following the outbreak of the
virus in all the Chinese provinces,
many countries decided to close
their borders with China. Related
to this was the cancellation of
the air traffic to/from China in
other countries. The Chinese
government took lockdown
measures for the whole country
to fight the virus.
▶ COVID-19: FROM A LOCAL HEALTH ISSUE TO A GLOBAL PANDEMIC
As the virus continued to
spread in mainland China but
also globally, the World Health
Organization (WHO) announced
that, the 11 March 2020, Covid-
19 outbreak was a pandemic.
Governments all around the
world enacted quarantine
measures and through March
and April 2020, more than 50% of
the world population was asked
to stay home.
Never had such a containment
of this scale been seen during
peacetime, with movement
limitations, purchase reductions,
remote working incentives for
most of the offices employees.
These measures, implemented to
fight the rapid spread of the virus
have strong economic
implications. Forecasts for global
growth were around 3% at the
start of March for 2020, this
estimate has now been cut to a
contraction of 2.7% (Bank of
America Merill Lynch).
4

5. ▶ GLOBAL ECONOMY: FROM GROWTH TO RECESSION (JAN - MAR 2020)
US stocks Q1 average
■ S&P 500: -21,89%
■ Nasdaq Composite: -17,00%
■ NYSE: -27,70%
■ Dow Jones Industrial Average: -25,22%
Brazilian stocks Q1 average
■ Brazil Index: -38,57%
■ Brazil Index 50: -39,21%
■ Ibovespa – Bovespa Index: -38,62%
NORTH AMERICA
SOUTH AMERICA
The IMF predicts a
gloomy forecasted
growth for North
America in 2020 with
a strong recovery in
2021.
2,30%
-6,10%
4,50%
1,60%
-6,20%
4,20%
-8,00%
-6,00%
-4,00%
-2,00%
0,00%
2,00%
4,00%
6,00%
2019 2020 2021
FORECASTED GROWTH FOR NORTH
AMERICA
United States Canada
1,10%
-5,30%
2,90%
-0,10%
-6,60%
3,00%
0,10%
-5,20%
3,40%
-8,00%
-6,00%
-4,00%
-2,00%
0,00%
2,00%
4,00%
2019 2020 2021
FORECASTED GROWTH FOR SOUTH AMERICA & THE
CARRIBEAN
Brazil Mexico Latin America & the Carribean
1
1
1
Source: IMF – World Energy Outlook, April 2020 Review
The U.S. enjoyed an unprecedent low rate of
unemployment before the coronavirus crisis.
The unemployment rate for March 2020 rose to
4,4% compared to 3,5% in February. More than 6,6
millions additional people had made insurance
claims by the 28th of March. The unemployment
rate may rise to 32% at the height of the crisis.
According to Bloomberg, around 22 million of
American fulfilled for unemployment from mid-
March to mid-April, highlighting the reality of a
20% and above jobless rate in the world’s first
economy.
The global outlook for
South America is similar
than for the northern part
of the continent but
emerging economies are
less likely to recover
quickly (see 2021
predictions)
Focus on U.S. unemployment
The U.S. Government imposed
a lockdown on all non-essential
businesses.
5

6. -10,00% -8,00% -6,00% -4,00% -2,00% 0,00% 2,00% 4,00% 6,00% 8,00% 10,00%
Germany
France
Italy
Euro Area
Japan
China
India
Russia
ASEAN-5
Nigeria
South Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Middle East and North Africa
FORECASTED GROWTH FOR EUROPEAN, ASIAN AND AFRICAN COUNTRIES
2021 2020 2019
European stocks Q1 average
■ FTSE100 (UK): -28,85%
■ CAC40 (France): -30,88%
■ Xetra DAX (Germany): -28,03%
■ AEX Amsterdam (Netherlands): -22,67%
Russian stocks Q1 average
■ Micex: -17,24%
■ RTS: -37,46%
■ RST Oil&Gas Index: -36,69%
Chinese stocks Q1 average
■ Shanghai Composite: -10,37%
■ FTSE Xinhua 200: -11,24%
■ Shanghai 180 A Share Index: -11,14%
Japanese stocks Q1 average
■ Nikkei 225: -24,67%
■ Topix: -23,02%
Australian stocks Q1 average
■ S&P/ASX 100: -24,59%
■ ASX All Ords: -25,50%
■ S&P/ASX Resources: -26,68%
EUROPE ASIA
United States
15,10%
Euro Area
11,20%
Japan
4,00%
United Kingdom
2,20%
Canada
1,30%
Other advanced
Economies
6,50%
SHARE OF WORLD'S GDP IN ADVANCED ECONOMIES (2019)
Total:
40,30%
Emerging and
Developing Asia
34,10%
Emerging and
Developing Europe
7,10%
Latin America and
the Caribbean
7,20%
Middle East and
Central Asia 8,10%
Sub-Saharan Africa
3,20%
SHARE OF WORLD'S GDP IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES (2019)
Total:
59,70%
Source: IMF – World Energy Outlook, April 2020 Review
1
1 6

7. Due to the severity of the Covid-19 crisis, hospital systems are overwhelmed,
supply chains disrupted, industries blocked, transports stuck, depriving millions
people of their job and income. The duration and intensity of this global shock
are highly uncertain. Governments have had to impose lockdown on their
population and their economy at a cost to save life. These measures needed an
answer with fiscal stimulus and economic package from the States and
international bodies to support citizens, companies and the global trading
system.
One of the most illustrious example from the scale of these measures comes from
the U.S., where the Government had distributed $1,200 to Americans earning up
to $75k per year with an additional $500 per child. Never such an immediate
fiscal impulse of this magnitude had been implemented, revealing the severity of
the crisis for the U.S. economy.
According to economists, it is very likely that 2020 will be the worst recession
since the Great Depression for the global economy. According to the IMF, there
should be a promising rebound of growth in 2021 (ex: 4,5% for France in 2021 vs
1,9% in 2019) but such projections are considerably uncertain as the Covid-19
crisis is not over. In every cases, it seems unlikely that the economic results of 2021
will offset the recession of 2020.
Country-specific fiscal measures (as a % of 2019 GDP):
Country Immediate fiscal impulse Deferral Other liquidity/guarantee
Belgium
Denmark
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Italy
Netherlands
Spain
UK
USA
TOTAL ($bn) $1562.35bn $1774.38bn $3394.06bn
0.7% ($3.36bn)
2.1% ($8.12bn)
1.2% ($32.7bn)
6.9% ($264.3bn)
1.1% ($2.35bn)
0.4% ($0.64bn)
0.9% ($17.92bn)
1.6% ($14.2bn)
0.7% ($9.86bn)
1.4% ($38bn)
5.5% ($1170.9bn)
1.2% ($5.04bn)
7.2% ($24bn)
9.4% ($255.4bn)
14.6% ($560bn)
2.0% ($4.14bn)
8.3% ($11.95bn)
13.0% ($258.4bn)
3.2% ($29.12bn)
2.0% ($27.33bn)
1.4% ($38bn)
2.6% ($561bn)
0.0%
2.9% ($9.6bn)
12.5% ($338,2bn)
38.6% ($1480.6bn)
0.5% ($1.12bn)
0.0%
7.3% ($145.6bn)
0.4% ($3.81bn)
9.1% ($125.8bn)
15.1% ($412.33bn)
4.1% ($877bn)
7

8. II. AN OIL DEMAND
AND SUPPLY SHOCK:
ANALYSIS
8

9. Crude oil is a natural flammable liquid
which is made up of hydrocarbons and other
compounds such as Paraffins, Naphthene,
Aromatics and Asphaltic. The oil drilled across
the world is composed of different petroleum
variety, with a unique mix of molecules,
defining its physical and chemical properties.
Different crude oil specifications and grades
exist:
- Specific gravity, determines the ease with
which the oil can be refined. It is measured
in degrees API, the greater the degrees, the
lighter the oil, the easier it is to refine.
- Sulphur content, is measured in percentage
and determines the quality of the crude.
Crude with high sulphur content (>0,5%) are
known as sour, otherwise, they are known as
sweet.
- Viscosity, defines the runniness and
stickiness of the oil. The lower the viscosity
the lighter the product is.
èTo have a greater understanding of the
physical characteristics of crude oil, please
click on the following link:
S&P Global Platts periodic table of oil
▶ THE OIL INDUSTRY AND CRUDE OIL MARKET I
Diesel
Other Distillates
Jet Fuel
Other Products
Liquefied Petroleum Gases
Gasoline
Heavy Fuel Oil (Residual)
Products made from a Barrel
of Crude Oil (42 Gallons)
At this stage, you can’t use the crude oil for
transportation purposes or petrochemical
applications, it needs to be refined. The different
specifications and grades will give a different
value to the crude. Refiners are primarily looking
for light, sweet crudes as they contain high
yields of high-value products such as gasoline,
diesel or jet fuel. Heavy, sour crudes are more
difficult to refine as they contain a higher
amount of impurities such as sulphur. These
impurities needs to be removed before refining
the crude, thus increasing the cost of
processing.
Crude oil characteristics are key to understand
the dynamics of oil pricing. It’s the first aspect to
look at to assess the quality of a crude and then
its potential price on the market.
Illustration: Crude oil may vary in colour
9

10. ▶ THE OIL INDUSTRY AND CRUDE OIL MARKET II
▻ Oil supply and oil demand: Probably the
most important criteria like for any economic
sector. Supply and demand should match as
close as possible to find the equilibrium price, if
the market is oversupplied by oil, prices may
crash, if the demand surpasses supplies, prices
may skyrocket. As oil is a very sensitive
commodity, fueling the global economy, an
in-depth analysis will be further dedicated to
this part. The concept of free market does not
really exist as far as oil is concerned.
▻ Financial Market: Alongside the physical
market exists a financial market for oil but also
other commodities. Future contracts for crude
oil and other energy derivatives are traded
across various regions and different stock
exchanges (New York for WTI, London for
Brent). Future markets have a role of price
discovery and influence oil prices. As on
financial markets, participants such as bank,
hedge fund, asset managers are not really
interested by the physical delivery of oil but try
to profit from changes in the price of oil.
▻ Additional criteria influence the oil market,
such as:
- The weather: if a hurricane were to hit the
U.S. gulf coast, offshore platforms must be
shut down and the production is halted.
- Geopolitics: oil producing countries, often
located in the Middle East have suffered
wars and conflicts for decades, threatening
the flow of oil to consuming countries.
- Environmental disaster: the DeepWater
horizon is a notorious example which led to
one of the worst environmental catastrophe
in the U.S. and almost knocked down BP.
More info at: Epa.gov.
- Currencies: as oil benchmarks are mostly
priced in dollars, the exchange value of the
dollar relative to other currencies affects the
price of oil outside the U.S. For instance, if
the EUR/USD exchange rates goes from 1,1
to 1,3, a $50 barrels of oil will cost less for
European consumers, driving the demand
for this commodity upward in the region
consequently.
Other criteria must be considered to
understand what impacts the price of
crude oil. The following list is a non-
exhaustive one but contains the main
drivers:
▻ Global crude oil reserves: Like any natural
resource, oil is not infinite, and the amount
contained in the ground has significant
economic importance. According to BP,
the world has 1.73 trillion barrels of oil
reserves and the top 3 reserve holders are
Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Canada.
Knowing the amount of crude oil that can
be reasonably extracted allows to
calculate the Reserves-to-Production (R/P)
ratio by year, or, in other words, the number
of years reserves will last at current annual
production rates. According to BP, crude oil
global reserves are sufficient to meet 50
years of global production at 2018 levels.
▻ Exploration & Production projects: In the
upstream sector, Exploration & Production
of crude oil are key to assess the current
and future rates of production.
Exploration relates to the search of
hydrocarbons under the ground thanks to
geoscience. The goal is to identify volumes,
locations and type of crude oil before
drilling a well. Oil is contained in typical
shale formations which are analyzed by
geoscientist and engineers.
Production of crude oil is only possible after
a well has been drilled in the reservoir.
Liquid hydrocarbons extracted are then
separated from other components such as
water, residues, … Once crude oil is
collected, it is shipped or piped to refineries,
to produce petroleum products such as
gasoil, diesel, fuel oil, jet fuel, …
10

11. ▶ FOCUS ON OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND FUNDAMENTALS I
Like in any market, oil is driven by the rules of supply and demand. As long as supplies are in
line with the demand, the oil market is stable. However, turmoil exists, leading to oil-expensive or
oil-cheapness era.
Several factors are responsible for oil price spikes but most of the time they are related to fears
that oil supplies tumble. Such fears often concern the Middle East as it is an oil-rich region,
supplying most of the advanced economies.
On the demand side, an unexpected slowdown in oil consumption will drive prices down as
supply will outpace demand. This is usually happens during financial crisis.
Demand
Oil is the most actively traded and consumed commodity globally. Oil consumption is mainly
fuelled by economic growth. When the economy is flourishing, oil consumption tends to rise,
because more people have access to goods which require oil to be produced or to function,
such as cars, planes, buying plastic-made goods, … On the other side, when economic crises
arise, a decline in oil consumption immediately follows: as people prefer to save money and
buy less, companies postpone projects, sell less goods & services and overall the demand
decreases.
Supply
In the past few years, the world has consumed 100 million barrels/day on average. Some barrels
are produced by International Oil Companies (IOC), others by National Oil Companies (NOC).
The goal of an IOC is to produce and sell oil by making a profit and redistribute dividends to
shareholders whereas a NOC is usually located in oil-dependent countries where the black gold
will heavily weight on the stability of the country as it accounts for a large portion of the GDP,
government budget and ability to spend. This is typical from countries located in the Middle East
or in Russia (Note that in Russia both NOC and IOC exist, such as Rosneft and Lukoil).
0,00%
5,00%
10,00%
15,00%
20,00%
25,00%
30,00%
35,00%
40,00%
Middle East North America Europe and
CIS
Africa Asia-Pacific Central and
South America
Distribution of global oil production (2010-2018)
2010 2014 2016 2017 2018
0,00% 5,00% 10,00% 15,00% 20,00% 25,00%
U.S.
China
India
Japan
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Brazil
South Korea
Canada
Germany
Main oil consumers countries (2016 - 2018)
2018 2017 2016 11

12. -6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Dec.31,1970
Dec.31,1972
Dec.31,1974
Dec.31,1976
Dec.31,1978
Dec.31,1980
Dec.31,1982
Dec.31,1984
Dec.31,1986
Dec.31,1988
Dec.31,1990
Dec.31,1992
Dec.31,1994
Dec.31,1996
Dec.31,1998
Dec.31,2000
Dec.31,2002
Dec.31,2004
Dec.31,2006
Dec.31,2008
Dec.31,2010
Dec.31,2012
Dec.31,2014
Dec.31,2016
Dec.31,2018
%ChangeofOilConsumption(YearonYear)
Barrelsperday(Million)
YEARS
World's Oil Consumption (1970 - 2018)
▶ FOCUS ON OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND FUNDAMENTALS II
Oil consumption, as previously said, coincides with economic growth. By looking at
the World’s oil consumption historical data, crises can easily be spotted.
Oil is generally more consumed when its price is low and affordable for a wide range
of industries and consumers. Fears of oil supply disruption have always led to a sharp
increase in the price of oil. This is generally happening when oil producing countries are
suffering from a conflict or when OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries)
threatens to impose an embargo or to decrease production for various reasons.
1 2 3
2
1
4
By looking at the World’s Oil Consumption chart, one can see that the World
consumed an average 40 million barrels per day in 1970 compared to 100 million
barrels per day in 2018, an increase of 1,25 million barrels per day each year on
average. On the overall picture, oil consumption had been climbing at a steady rate.
But for some occasions, the consumption plateaued or even declined. This occurred 4
times since 1970, without taking into account the current Covid-19 crisis.
Events responsible for an oil consumption decline
3
OPEC Embargo in 1974: In the 70’s, oil consumption was growing fast as it was a flourishing period for
the economy. But in 1974, the OPEC decided to impose an embargo on its oil flowing to Western
economies due to the Kippur War against Israel. In addition, America’s surplus production at the
time collapsed and left Europe, the U.S. and Asia defenceless against OPEC’s embargo and price
increases. This event is known as the first oil shock.
Iran Revolution in 1980: The fall of the Shah in Iran unleashed the second oil crisis panic, which led to
a greater increase in the price of oil compared to 1974. The Iran-Irak war then followed through the
80’s. During that period, Iranian production fell to below 500,000 barrels/day from around 6 million
barrels/day before the crisis. The price of oil skyrocketed as a consequence, with a threefold price
increase.
First Gulf War in 1990: The conflict was triggered by Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in August 1990. The
coalition led by the U.S. quickly sent troops to prevent the annexation of Kuwait by Iraq and protect
the oil fields. This conflict knocked out two of the world’s biggest oil producers, and led to a new
surge in oil prices, resulting in a lower consumption of oil.
Global financial crisis in 2008: This time, oil consumption declined, not because of fears of supply
disruption and oil price spike, but because the global economy was slowing down and consumer
demand declined, leading to oversupply. The price of oil declined from a peak of $147 per barrel to
$32 in the crisis aftermath.
4
12

13. 13
Oil production as forecasted without a global pandemic Oil production as forecasted with COVID-19 crisis
⌲ Under normal market conditions, oil supplies
are supposed to match the demand, in line with
the 100 million barrels per day consumed, with a
slow but steady growth over time, as it is
assumed that the economy will keep growing,
requiring more oil to cover the needs.
The main producers are divided between OPEC
and non-OPEC countries. As OPEC operates as a
cartel and produces roughly 33% of the daily oil
production, it is set apart due to its ability to
influence the oil market. OPEC-members
countries, often led by Saudi Arabia, used to
gather in Vienna to discuss strategy and target
price on oil.
⌲ As oil market demand contracted during the
Covid-19 crisis, main oil producers were left off
guard with plenty of oil. The steep fall in oil
consumption required an answer from the supply
side, as there was a gap of approximately 30
million barrels between demand and supply from
March to April 2020. Usually, OPEC used to discuss
whether to reduce production or not, sometimes
in agreement with Russia, which group is called
OPEC+. However this time things were different as
never a decline of this scale has been seen on
the demand side. Non-OPEC producing
countries had to participate into the global
strategy to cut oil production.
Oil consumption as forecasted without a global pandemic Oil consumption as forecasted with COVID-19 crisis
⌲ Under normal conditions, the world’s oil
consumption is roughly equal to 100 million
barrels per day to cover all our needs in 2019. This
number has been generally increasing year on
year at a 1.82% rate since the 70’s.
As there was no sign of potential instability when
this forecast was published by the EIA (Energy
Information Administration) in the U.S., the
agency predicted a slow but steady increase of
the global oil consumption in the near future.
There was no sign of economic disaster or global
conflict looming ahead that would have eroded
the demand.
This chart is no longer relevant as in a matter of
weeks, the global economy collapsed due to
lockdown measures.
⌲ Due to the Covid-19 crisis, the world’s oil
consumption fell drastically to levels of
consumption seen around 1996. Around a third
of the demand disappeared within weeks, thus
sending the price of oil to historical low levels
(see chart on p.14).
The reason for such a decline comes from the
lockdown measures taken by Governments in
countries affected by the virus. As borders were
closed, citizens asked to stay home and
international transports shut down, the demand
for oil was reduced drastically. Such a situation
may seem positive for the climate as less
greenhouse gases will be released over that
period of low demand and consumers will
benefit from a significantly lower oil prices at the
pump.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan2018
Mar2018
May2018
Jul2018
Sep2018
Nov2018
Jan2019
Mar2019
May2019
Jul2019
Sep2019
Nov2019
Jan2020
Mar2020
May2020
Jul2020
Sep2020
Nov2020
Jan2021
Mar2021
May2021
Jul2021
Sep2021
Nov2021
MILLIONBARRELS/DAY
Estimated OECD and non-OECD oil consumption in normal conditions
OECD non-OECD
Forecast
Data: EIA
13
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan
2018
Mar
2018
May
2018
Jul
2018
Sep
2018
Nov
2018
Jan
2019
Mar
2019
May
2019
Jul
2019
Sep
2019
Nov
2019
Jan
2020
Mar
2020
May
2020
Jul
2020
Sep
2020
Nov
2020
Jan
2021
Mar
2021
May
2021
Jul
2021
Sep
2021
Nov
2021
MILLIONBARRELS/DAY
Estimated OPEC and non-OPEC production in normal conditions
non-OPEC Countries OPEC Countries
Forecast
Data: EIA
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan2018
Feb2018
Mar2018
Apr2018
May2018
Jun2018
Jul2018
Aug2018
Sep2018
Oct2018
Nov2018
Dec2018
Jan2019
Feb2019
Mar2019
Apr2019
May2019
Jun2019
Jul2019
Aug2019
Sep2019
Oct2019
Nov2019
Dec2019
Jan2020
Feb2020
Mar2020
Apr2020
May2020
Jun2020
Jul2020
Aug2020
Sep2020
Oct2020
Nov2020
Dec2020
MILLIONBARRELS/DAY
Estimated OECD and non-OECD oil consumption under current conditions
OECD non-OECD
Covid-19 begins to hit
global oil consumption
Forecast
Data: EIA ; Forecast from various oil reports
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan2018
Feb2018
Mar2018
Apr2018
May2018
Jun2018
Jul2018
Aug2018
Sep2018
Oct2018
Nov2018
Dec2018
Jan2019
Feb2019
Mar2019
Apr2019
May2019
Jun2019
Jul2019
Aug2019
Sep2019
Oct2019
Nov2019
Dec2019
Jan2020
Feb2020
Mar2020
Apr2020
May2020
Jun2020
Jul2020
Aug2020
Sep2020
Oct2020
Nov2020
Dec2020
MILLIONBARRELS/DAY
Estimated OPEC and non-OPEC production under current conditions
non-OPEC Countries OPEC Countries
OPEC+ talks collapse
between Saudi
Arabia and Russia
Forecast
Data: EIA ; Forecast from various oil reports

14. In the past few weeks, the oil market has been as turbulent as a hurricane hurting the US Gulf Coast. The
dramatic collapse of oil demand has pushed oil prices to new territories. The situation sets a gloomy future
for the weaker oil producers in the upstream sector. This led to a fragile coalition between crude oil
producers’ country.
On March 6, as the demand collapsed, OPEC+ members had to conduct a meeting to decide if they
all agree to cut a portion of their domestic oil production. Meetings like this one are not unusual in the
OPEC decision-making system, as oil producers, regrouped as a cartel, often discussed strategies in
meetings whether to reduce oil production or increase it depending on the situation and their
targeted oil price. But this time it was different as they basically had to agree on the biggest cut in oil
production ever made. The talks collapsed as Russia, which is not an original member but was invited
to the talks since 2017, did not agree with the OPEC members to reduce the output with a common
move. This decision led to a decline of the oil price from $45.27 for Brent the day of the meeting to
$22.76 on March 30, 3 weeks later only.
Two questions are of primary importance at this stage:
March 6: OPEC+ talks
collapse, sending
global oil prices to
2017 lows.
April 7: US, Russia and
OPEC found common
ground on global oil
production, with
announced cuts of
around 10m bbl/day.
▶ OIL INDUSTRY IN TURMOIL: GLOBAL ANALYSIS I
$68,44 $68,91
$64,20 $64,59
$59,32
$54,45 $53,27
$57,75 $56,30
$51,90
$45,27
$37,22
$30,05
$27,15
$22,76
$31,87 $29,60
$25,57
$61,68 $63,27
$58,08 $58,34
$53,14 $50,11 $49,57 $52,02 $51,43
$46,75
$41,28
$34,36
$28,70
$24,01
$20,09
$23,63
$20,13
-$37,63
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
D
ecem
ber30January
6January
13January
21January
27February
3February
10February
18February
24
M
arch
2
M
arch
6M
arch
10M
arch
16M
arch
24M
arch
30
A
pril7
A
pril14
A
pril20
$/Barrel
Weekly crude oil prices for Brent and WTI
Brent WTI Data: Bloomberg ; OPEC
April 20: WTI, the US benchmark,
fell into negative territories for the
1st time in its history, with future
contracts traded as low as -37$
(Additional developments p.15).
Why did Brent, the international oil benchmark,
lost more than 50% of its value in less than 3
weeks ?
As Russia publicly announced that it would not
make cuts to its own oil production, Saudi Arabia
launched a price war by deciding to rise its
crude oil production and flood the market with
its cheap-to-produce oil. Such an outcome
would have devastated the whole oil industry,
especially in the U.S. where shale producers are
particularly exposed to oil price movements, due
to their higher cost of production and their high
level of indebtedness with short-term repayment
ahead.
On April 7, the U.S. managed to struck a deal on
the matter with their Russian and Arabian
counterparts and temporarily reassured markets.
Why did Russia refuse to cut a portion of its own
domestic production while other OPEC
members agree ?
Russia is one of the top 3 biggest producer in the
world, with 10 million barrels produced per day
in 2019, equivalent to 10% of the world demand
at that time. As Russia is a large producer and
also has a very low cost of production
compared to the average’s competitors, it
refused to reduce its output in order to gain
market shares. This would damage other
weaker producers with higher costs of
production and squeeze them out of the
market. By not reducing output, the gap
between demand and supply would have
widened, sending oil prices to very low level
where only large producers could survive for
some time. 14

15. 17,5
15
12.5
10
7.5
5
2.5
0
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
$ USD/bbl
Russia and Caspian Middle East Africa Europe Latin America Asia Pacific North America
Location of oil production that is uneconomic at different Brent prices, 2020
▶ OIL INDUSTRY IN TURMOIL: GLOBAL ANALYSIS II
Millionbarrels/day
Consequences for
Oil producing countries
The main regions at risk with a persistent low price for oil
are the ones with a higher cost of production per barrel
or producing lower quality crude oil.
North America is particularly exposed to oil crisis, with
shale in the US requiring 45-55$/barrel to breakeven and
tar sands in Canada requiring 60$/ barrel to breakeven
and make a profit.
Other countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia are more
protected against an oil drop. Saudi Aramco (NOC from
Saudi Arabia) has a cost per barrel of 2.80$ and Rosneft
(NOC from Russia) is profitable even with a barrel of
Brent trading at 10-15$.
Despite having very low production costs, Russia and
Saudi Arabia need a sustained oil price at acceptable
levels (above 60$/bbl) as oil accounts for a large share
of their GDP. In Russia, 40% of the state’s budget comes
from oil and gas revenues while in Saudi Arabia it’s close
to 70%.
One can easily understand that even if NOC companies
from these 2 countries are profitable at extreme low
prices, their economies are extremely sensitive to oil
volatility. State’s budget, from one year to another can
be very different and this may have an impact on all the
services provided by the State such as budget for
ministries, subsidies for companies, social benefits for
citizens, domestic projects and so on.
A particularly representative example is to compare the
price of Brent between 2014 to 2016 and Saudi Arabia’s
GDP over that period. When Brent fell from 110$ a barrel
to less than 50$ during these 2 years, Saudi GDP fell from
$756 billion in 2014 to $645 billion in 2016, equivalent to a
15% drop.
Oil producing companies
For oil companies such as the oil majors (Exxon Mobil,
Chevron, Shell, BP, Total), this situation materializes as a
stress test for the oil industry. Companies exposed to this
historical low oil price need to protect their balance
sheet, reduce their CAPEX & OPEX, postpone
exploration & production projects. This may also result in
less dividends paid to shareholders as companies have
to re-examine the allocation of their free cash flow.
Large corporations are more resilient to these shocks as
they have accumulated tremendous wealth over the
past decades. Things are more complicated for smaller
independent upstream oil companies, relying on a
higher cost of production and debt. As the chart
depicts, the lower the price of oil, the more exposed are
oil producers and particularly U.S. producers. The recent
surge in the shale industry was only possible because
Wall Street and bankers supported companies a few
years ago and provided them with easy-to-access loans
to drill across Texas or the Appalachian Mountains. But
the bill is coming due for this industry, with $200 billion of
debt maturing over the next four years and bankruptcy
looming ahead for several shale players.
April 21 2020: WTI fell into negative territory for the
first time in history, obliging producers and traders
to pay buyers to take oil off their hands. The reason is
that storage capacity at Cushing, Oklahoma was just
weeks away from full capacity. This location is the point
where traders have to take physical delivery of the WTI.
Basically it’s a landlocked choke point, which forms a
glut under periods of oversupply like the current one.
WTI rebounded to around $15/barrel during the
following days, still far away from the $45 to $50/barrel
required for the shale industry to breakeven.
15

16. III. KEY EXPECTATIONS
IN THE NEAR FUTURE
FOR THE ENERGY
INDUSTRY
16

17. ▶ COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW FOR BRENT AND WTI FUTURES
The oil market has been recently
rocked by extreme price swings. From
close to $60 per barrel in January 2020,
WTI fell in negative territories for the first
time in April, approaching -$40 per
barrel.
Shale drillers in the US are worried to see
the same event happening again. Are
they right to feel anxious or are prices
likely to recover in the near-term future ?
The answer is not easily foreseeable but
looking at some metrics could
potentially help to have a rough idea.
As of Monday 27th March where this chart was captured, short-term futures contracts indicate
that the price of oil for June is likely to suffer from a new decrease after the recovery from
negative prices that WTI experienced the 21st of April. Futures WTI contracts for May expired on
April 22 and due to oversupply, last-minute deals were concluded under 0$ a barrel. A similar
outcome is likely to occur in May for June futures as the chart suggests. WTI June contracts are
trading slightly above $10 a barrel and $20 for Brent, but as the deadline for contracts expiry is
approaching, prices may drop and could follow a similar trend than observed previously.
WTI and Brent prices decrease can be broadly explained by the global situation around the
globe, with a bigger drop in demand compared to supplies, a fragile economic environment
and the uncertainty concerning the easing of lockdown measures. However, some key
differences are to be taken into account between the two futures to assess their upcoming price
movements.
$ 0,00
$ 5,00
$ 10,00
$ 15,00
$ 20,00
$ 25,00
$ 30,00
$ 35,00
$ 40,00
C
LY00
(C
ash)Jun-20
Jul-20A
ug-20Se
p-20O
ct-20N
ov-20D
ec-20Ja
n-21Feb
-21M
a
r-21A
p
r-21M
a
y-21
Jun-21
Jul-21A
ug-21Se
p-21O
ct-21N
ov-21D
ec-21
Pricein$/Barrel
Crude Oil Futures From Selected Benchmarks
WTI Brent
WTI
WTI June futures have dropped due to fears
that oversupply may create another glut at
Cushing where storages capacities are at an
all-time high. As the deadline approaches for
June futures, no one wants to be the last to
close its position ahead of expiry, resulting in an
illiquid contract for now. As the expiry looms
ahead, future contracts will likely suffer from an
increased volatility. The recent drop in WTI
prices can also be explained by the recent
decision of USO, the world’s largest oil-backed
ETF to sell off its positions for June (USO owned
137m barrels of June WTI before changing its
portfolio holdings).
BRENT
Contrary to WTI, Brent contracts are settled in
cash rather than in physical deliveries,
explaining why the storage fears are less of a
problem for the North Sea crude benchmark.
In addition, as Brent is an offshore crude,
pipeline gluts are not an issue, but vessels are
required to transport the oil from offshore
platforms to coastal refineries. Despite being
more robust to extreme changes, Brent is not
spared from prices decline due to oversupplies
the oil industry is experiencing. The
international oil benchmark has tumbled to its
lowest level since 1999 during April. A recovery
is not likely to occur in the next quarter.
Data from Barchart
17

18. ▶ THE FUTURE BALANCE OF OIL SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Data from the International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report, 15 Apr. 2020
The original OPEC members, alongside Russia to form
OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries, decided in April to cut oil
production by 9.7 million barrels per day at a May-June
horizon. Each of the countries involved in this historical deal
will have to reduce their own domestic production to
match the metrics from the chart. Saudi Arabia and Russia
will take most of the burden by removing more than 2
million barrels per day of their own production from the
market. This strategy is aimed at driving oil prices to more
sustainable levels to ensure that the oil industry will make it
through this crisis and also to drive up States' budget from
the main oil producers, heavily reliant on the black gold to
fund their domestic projects.
The projected oil cuts are supposed to last for some time,
as when demand will be back to normal levels, oil
producers will benefit from a rising, profitable oil price.
On the non-OPEC side, some cuts in the oil production are
likely to occur but it is not clear to which extent and if it
will be voluntary or driven by market forces as the US
suggests. The US and Canada in particular will be forced
to decrease their production due to the low oil price
environment. American production reached almost 13
million barrels per day at the end of 2019 but the Energy
Information Administration warned that output will be
down to 11 million barrels per day by 2021. According to
one of the biggest shale producers in the US, Pioneer
Natural Resources, output could be reduced by 3 million
barrels per day with a $35/barrel environment and by 7
million barrels per day with a $10/barrel environment,
highlighting the sensitivity of the US oil industry to oil crises.
Even if the US, Canada, Norway and Brazil agreed that
global oil cuts are required to maintain oil prices at a
certain threshold, it is not sure that their own reduction will
result from a Government-driven decision or by the market
itself.
Based on the estimated oil cuts, global oil supplies should
decrease by almost 10% compared to their pre-crisis level
through 2020, the biggest drop ever observed in the oil
sector. According to the International Energy Agency, by
the end of the third quarter of 2020, oil consumption will rise
steeply, due to the expected recovery of the economy
and the end of lockdown measures. As the graph suggests,
the rebound of demand will surpass oil production as the
decided oil cuts are not supposed to end by 2020. This
means that potentially, the price of oil may rise to levels
seen before the crisis, close to $60 per barrel or even higher
depending on the level of oil inventories and the length of
the oil cuts. The oil industry severely suffers from the ongoing
crisis, but the $100/barrel era is maybe not gone forever.
1
1
1
1
As seen previously, the short-term future for oil prices is not likely to recover from the Covid-19 effects.
The U.S. is particularly hit by consistent low prices due to the impossibility for its oil industry to breakeven
with a barrel below $45-50. The longer term view should be more promising for oil producers, due to the
easing of global lockdowns, voluntary cuts in oil production for some, forced ones for others. But let’s
remember that the end of the epidemy is unknown as well as the recovery of the demand. Only the most
robust oil producers will make it through this period of uncertainty, with State aids for most of them.
18

19. ▶ FURTHER ANALYSIS ON OTHER
COMMODITIES I: NATURAL GAS
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
$60/bbl, Q1 2020 $25/bbl, Q3 2020 Asia Q1 2020 Europe Q1 2020
USD/Mbtu
Natural gas price ranges for oil-indexed supplies
and current spot prices
Oil-indexed prices Spot prices Data: IEA
The latest fluctuations of oil prices spread across
other segments of the energy sector. In particular,
natural gas prices are highly correlated to the price of
oil, as far as long-term agreements are concerned.
The global demand decline encompasses all types of
commodities and the natural gas sector is no
exception.
The price per Mbtu (Million British Thermal Unit) of
natural gas in the first quarter of 2020 averaged $7.50-
11 and decreased to $4-5,50/Mbtu in the third quarter
for long term indexed-oil contracts, meaning the gas
supply chain is also facing an upward pressure.
Natural gas producers and utilities companies will
have to reduce their capital and operational
expenditures as revenues are on the decline.
Concretely, this may result, as for the oil sector, in an
adjustment of supplies, varying among the countries.
However, the shock is less likely to drive gas prices into
negative territories as there is still some room for
storage and the use of transport is more limited than
for oil.
Concerning Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), the surge of
new projects development allowed to bring more
flexibility to the gas sector. More LNG volumes are sold
on a spot basis compared to long-term oil-indexed
contracts agreements. The flexibility brought by LNG
concerns both the physical deliveries of natural gas
and the financial and contractual terms of this
commodity. Selling LNG on a spot basis enhances the
decoupling between oil and gas prices. This is useful if
the price of oil crashes as it will not spread to the spot
price of natural gas. But other challenges are being
faced by the LNG industry, similar to oil by some
aspects and different due to the structure of this
particular market:
- A lower global demand for energy products led to
a decrease in prices for these products, including
LNG.
- LNG buyers are cancelling their orders of gas,
invoking force majeure clauses. This occurred
mainly in China, the 2nd biggest LNG importer after
Japan, as the lockdown hit the country, many ports
were closed and gas consumption was running at
very low levels. Some LNG tankers were anchored
off Chinese ports, while some others were rerouting
towards different markets.
- In the longer term, a structural LNG oversupply
alongside a drop in oil is likely to imply a sustained
high liquidity environment with low LNG prices. This
would make it more complex to finance new LNG
projects, as long-term, oil-indexed contracts
continue to tie LNG prices to capacity
development. Many LNG liquefaction projects are
under development and the lower demand may
keep spot prices low for some time.
19

20. 20
▶ FURTHER ANALYSIS ON OTHER
COMMODITIES II:COAL
According to the IEA, coal consumption is likely to
fall by 8% in the first quarter of 2020 compared with a
year earlier. Related to this decrease is the lower
demand for electricity across the globe, as coal is
mostly used as a feedstock for power plants. Asia
accounted for 90% of all coal-fired capacity built in the
past 20 years, explaining why even today, most of the
electricity produced in the world is coming from coal
(see pie).
Due to global lockdown measures, total coal
consumption fell to 2010 levels, around 5 Mtoe (Million
tons of oil equivalent) compared with 5.4 Mtoe in 2019.
This drop is mainly led by China, which accounts for
roughly half of the world’s coal consumption. The
restrictive measures taken by Beijing resulted in a 9%
decline for coal power generation in the country. The
contraction of the Chinese economy and the decline
in demand were responsible for this drop.
World gross electricity production by
source, 2017
-20,00%
-15,00%
-10,00%
-5,00%
0,00%
5,00%
10,00%
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Apr-20
Year-on-Year%Change
Millionmetrictonsofoilequivalent
Coal demand in the power sector (2000 - Apr 2020)
Coal consumption was already on the decline in 2019
as other sources of electricity production are cost-
competitive and emit less CO2 in the atmosphere
compared to coal. In 2020, coronavirus is adding
another concern for coal producers with the fastest
rate of decrease in coal consumption ever recorded
at a global scale since World War II.
This decline is reflected across the price of different
coal grades delivered around the world. Thermal coal
shipped to Europe fell to $40/t, its lowest level since
2003. In Australia, the high-quality coal benchmark for
the Asian market dropped to a 4 year low of $51/t in
early May 2020 compared to $68/t a month earlier.
Total gross electricity produc1on by source, 2017 (in TWh)
Coal 9774
Natural gas 5916
Hydro 4372
Nuclear 2572
Wind 1029
Oil 771
Biofuels and waste 514
Solar 514
Geothermal, tidal, … 257
Coal
38%
Natural gas
23%
Hydro
17%
Nuclear
10%
Wind
4%
Oil
3%
Biofuels and waste
2% Solar
2%
Geothermal, Tidal
1%
20

21. ▶ FURTHER ANALYSIS ON OTHER
COMMODITIES III: ELECTRICITY
Since 2010, electricity consumption has increased
by an average 2.6% per year as more businesses and
households are connected to the grid and more
products require electricity, such as electric vehicles,
data servers or IOT. The growth in electricity
consumption is mainly driven by Asian countries such
as China and India which are intensifying their effort to
provide electricity to their 1 billion and more
population respectively.
However, in the first quarter of 2020, global electricity
demand has decreased by 2.5% due to lockdown
measures imposed in many countries. Depending on
the extent of the lockdown, the weather and the
electricity mix in each country, the decrease in
electricity consumption was diverse but overall, as for
other sources of energy, the demand waned.
According to the International Energy Agency,
electricity demand in China was reduced in total by
15% when lockdown measures were fully
implemented, in Germany it decreased by 10% and
by more than 20% in Italy.
41,25%
21,15%
18,26%
12,78%
3,82%
2,40%
0,34%
0,00%
10,00%
20,00%
30,00%
40,00%
50,00%
60,00%
70,00%
80,00%
90,00%
100,00%
Renewable electricity generation by
region, 2018
Middle East
Africa
Eurasia
Central and South
America
North America
Europe
Asia Pacific
The global decline in electricity consumption is also
likely to drive revenues down for electricity producers
and this may be reflected in the postponement of
non-essential projects. Coal demand should drop by
8% this year and natural gas by 5% for electricity
generation. Fortunately, this setback will probably not
affect too much the renewable sector, with wind and
solar emerging as the big winners of this crisis. The
renewable sector is the only one in the global energy
system that is supposed to grow in 2020. Responsible
for this growth are the new wind projects coming
online in the U.S. and the competitiveness of clean
energy prices. According to BloombergNEF,
renewables are the cheapest sources of energy for
two thirds of the world’s population. Having also a
preferred access to the grid, renewables may
account for a larger share of the global electricity mix
by the end of the year.
The global outlook for renewables seems attractive,
but with fossil fuels at a very low price, supposed to
last for several months, the competition between gas,
coal and the renewables may intensify in the power
sector. This may harm the development of required
clean energy to target the next challenge human
beings have to face: climate change.
0
2 500
5 000
7 500
10 000
12 500
15 000
17 500
20 000
22 500
25 000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
TWh
Net consumption of electricity worldwide, 1980 - 2020
21

22. IV.ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS
22

23. In parallel to this energy crisis, the health
crisis will lead to a drop in all exports from
African countries integrated into
globalization. This appears even more
detrimental in the context of the Silk Roads
project and the creation of an economic
free trade area on the continent. As a result,
Africa's GDP for 2020 would fall from 3.2% to
1.8% according to the ECA. The World Bank
is even predicting a recession not seen in 25
years on the continent.
From an Economic Crisis to A Health Crisis
That Could Be Much More Serious Given the
Fragility of The Health System
In fact, several African countries have hardly
any artificial respirators that are necessary to
arm intensive care unit (ICU) beds against
COVID-19: Central African Republic has only
3 of them, Burkina Faso 11 and Sierra Leone
18 for 5, 19 and 18 million inhabitants,
respectively (3), compared to several
thousand for countries such as France and
the United Kingdom, which have come
close to saturation of their ICU beds. In
addition to this heavy medical equipment,
the scientific journal The Lancet points out
that on average East African countries have
"no more than five hospital beds and two
doctors per 10,000 inhabitants". This raises
questions about the capacity of African
countries to respond to a disease as viral as
COVID-19, not only in terms of patient
management, but also in terms of screening
symptomatic and even more difficult to
screen asymptomatic citizens.
COVID-19 Health Crisis Leads to Economic
and Energy Crisis for African Exporting
Countries
The COVID-19 crisis highlights the
dependence of African countries on the
export of raw materials as well as on energy
resources such as oil. Never in world energy
history has the oil consumption (but also of
other resources) decreased so brutally as in
the last two months. This sharp fall in
demand has led to an unprecedented drop
in oil prices, from nearly $70 in January 2020
to less than $10 in April. This raises the
question of how the economies, mostly
dependent on these exports, such as
Nigeria, Angola, Gabon and Algeria, will
adapt. For example, Algeria's exports are 95
per cent dependent on oil and gas, while
Nigeria's exports are 90 per cent dependent
on oil alone.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC) and the International
Energy Agency (IEA) issued a joint statement
detailing their concerns and that “they
agreed that these create material impacts,
particularly for citizens of developing
countries including those that rely heavily on
income from oil and gas production for
essential services and that are especially
vulnerable to market volatility (1).” Oil-
exporting countries, including Nigeria,
Angola and Algeria, have agreed on a
historic reduction in their oil production. They
decided in mid-April and from the 1st of May
on a reduction of almost 10 million barrels
per day. The aim is to limit supply so that
prices gradually return to sustainable levels
for oil producing countries. The United
Nations Economic Commission for Africa
(ECA) is currently predicting a loss of nearly
$65 billion as a result of this fall in energy
prices for African countries (2). Energy
revenues would thus fall to $101 billion
instead of the $166 billion expected without
the Covid-19 crisis.
▶ THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 FOR AFRICAN COUNTRIES, THEIR
ECONOMIES AND THEIR HEALTH SYSTEMS I
23

24. The Continent the Least Affected by The
Disease So Far, At Least Officially
Africa seems to be spared from the
pandemic for several reasons. First, the
different populations of African countries are
globally younger than the world average.
The average age in Africa is 19 years old
compared to nearly 30 years old globally.
Preliminary results from the COVID-19 studies
suggest that the younger a person is, the less
likely they are to be ill or at least
symptomatic. Another reason given is that
several African countries have already been
impacted in the past by other epidemics (4),
which had only a regional horizon: Zika first
detected in Uganda or more recently Ebola
in DRC. African countries have been able to
develop an adapted health culture and
good practices more rooted in the
populations.
Nevertheless, caution should be exercised
as there may be other reasons for this low
official contamination rate. One reason may
also be the fact that it is more difficult to
carry out large-scale tests on the continent,
given the less complete sanitary
organization. In other words, the continent
would only be officially less affected, while
unofficially the reality would be quite
different.
Every Effort Must Be Made to Prevent the
Exponential Spread of the Virus on The
Continent As Soon As Possible
To prevent an exponential spread of the
virus, which would be virtually
uncontrollable, national and international
responses are gradually being implemented.
On the African continent, a task force - the
Africa Task Force for Novel Coronavirus
(AFCOR) - has been set up by the African
Centre for Disease Control and Prevention
(CDC) and the African Union (AU), which
brings together some of the richest countries
on the continent - Senegal, South Africa,
Morocco, Nigeria, Kenya - to coordinate the
various mechanisms at the continental level
and provide a coherent response.
The response to this crisis is also economic,
with numerous plans to support the
economy. The World Bank and the IMF are
going to join forces in a global plan to
support vulnerable countries and people to
the tune of $160 million over 15 months. In
addition, country-specific targeted aid is
being put in place. For example, the IMF will
lend nearly $3.4 billion to Nigeria, which has
been forced to devalue its currency. France
is going to reallocate development aid
credits of nearly 1.2 billion euros to the fight
against COVID-19 in Africa, following an
announcement made by Mr. Le Drian,
French Minister of Foreign Affairs. This aid will
concern 19 African countries, France's main
partners such as Burkina Faso, Senegal and
the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
▶ THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 FOR AFRICAN COUNTRIES, THEIR
ECONOMIES AND THEIR HEALTH SYSTEMS II
24

25. Ronan
Fleckst
ein
Edoua
rd Lotz
ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS
Edouard Lotz is a
former student of
ESCP Europe Business
School and holds an
MSc in Energy
Management. He
worked for the
French multinational
SUEZ and is currently
working for Ecoslops,
a Cleantech
company in the oil
sector as a Business
Developer/Analyst.
Ronan Fleckstein
studied at Sorbonne
University where he
obtained a Master
degree in public
administration. He
worked for the
Ministry of Defence
and the Senate as a
legal expert. He is
currently working at
the Hospital
Delafontaine as part
of his training as a
hospital manager.
25

26. SOURCES
OIL REPORT SOURCES
•Bp.com. 2019. [online] Available at: <https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-
economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2019-full-report.pdf> [Accessed 24 April 2020].
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•OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, 2020. 11 March 2020.
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ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS SOURCES
1. OPEC, March 16th 2020, IEA Executive Director and OPEC Secretary General discussed the current situation in global oil markets
2. United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, March 13th 2020, Economic Impact of the COVID-19 on Africa
3. Financial Times, April 8th 2020, African health officials warn of chronic medical shortage
4. Financial Times, April 15th 2020, Africa’s scientists learn from past epidemics to fight COVID-19
26

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