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Ericsson Mobility Report - June 2015 - North East Asia appendix

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Ericsson Mobility Report is one of the leading analyses of data traffic available, providing in-depth measurements from the world’s largest selection of live networks spread all around the globe.

The report uses those measurements and analysis, together with internal forecasts and other relevant studies, to provide insights into current traffic and market trends in today’s Networked Society.

The June 2015 report looks at global subscription growth and how the pattern is set to continue to 2020.

Publié dans : Mobile, Technologie
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Ericsson Mobility Report - June 2015 - North East Asia appendix

  2. 2. 2  ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT  NORTH EAST ASIA JUNE 2015 A need for internet access anytime, anywhere Having access to relevant information at any time and in any location has become an integral part of life for people in North East Asia. Mobile phones, especially smartphones, provide people with the ability to remain connected anytime, anywhere, and also enable them to perform different internet tasks at different locations. Network performance is a major factor in influencing users’ overall connectivity experience. The pursuit of better connectivity makes users switch between different access technologies. 47 percent of mobile phone users in urban China who switch access technology when performing an online activity do so for better speed or reliability. The need for quality internet connectivity will contribute to the growth of mobile broadband: 42 percent of 3G users in urban China want to upgrade to 4G in the next 3 months, and 36 percent of 4G users in Japan want to improve their 4G connections.1 Market overview 1 Ericsson ConsumerLab, Analytical platform (2014) The North East Asia region consists of the following markets: Mainland China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong. With a population of around 1.6 billion, the region represents 22 percent of the world’s population. In economic terms, Mainland China and Japan are currently the second and third largest consumer markets in the world after the US. For mobile subscriptions, Mainland China, Japan and South Korea are currently in the top four global LTE markets. Thanks to Mainland China’s extensive and rapid deployment of LTE, the number of LTE subscriptions in the country should exceed 1.1 billion by the end of 2020. It will then represent around 30 percent of the total global subscriptions for LTE. Japan reached 71 million LTE subscriptions at the end of 2014, approximately 45 percent of all mobile subscriptions. Mobile competition in Japan is fierce. Two operators offer a theoretical top speed of 225 Mbps, utilizing Carrier Aggregation, while another offers a 220 Mbps service through WiMAX2+, which is TD-LTE compatible. Japan is one of a few countries that has built large-scale LTE-Advanced networks. South Korea’s mobile connection speed is evolving. Tri-band Carrier Aggregation of LTE-Advanced was launched in 2014. This is the fastest mobile network service available globally – four times faster than standard LTE. Taiwan has a long-term commitment to deploy new technologies. Last December, the Taiwanese government announced a 4G mobile broadband smart city plan to promote LTE adoption. One objective of this 3 year project is to increase GDP by USD 2.3 billion, and the expansion of the LTE services is seen as a key contributor in achieving this. Key figures: North East Asia 2014 2020 CAGR 2014–2020 Mobile subscriptions (million) 1,550 2,000 4% Smartphone subscriptions (million) 1,035 1,700 9% Data traffic per active smartphone (GB/month) 0.6 4.0 35% Total mobile traffic (PB/month) 850 8,000 45% 47% of mobile phone users in urban China who switch access technology do so for speed or reliability 42% of 3G users in urban China want to upgrade to 4G
  3. 3. NORTH EAST ASIA JUNE 2015  ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT  3 The multiscreen lifestyle and beyond Consumers today switch screens in order to access services and content across different locations. 24 percent of people in South Korea own and use PCs, tablets and mobile phones. Of those, 80 percent have switched screens at least once in the last 30 days while online.2 New services enabling seamless access to video content have given rise to a new behavior called ‘place shifting’, where people start watching a video on one device and then continue watching it on another device in a new place. 35 percent of internet users in South Korea say they place-shift at least once a week.3 People have built up an appetite for cloud services due to using multiple devices for daily content needs. For example, in urban China, 47 percent of consumers synchronize their contact lists across devices for personal use and 57 percent of internet users want to have the seamless cross-device video viewing experience offered by the cloud service.4 As we enter the Networked Society, people increasingly expect to interact with more devices and connected things in their surroundings. 60 percent of global smartphone users believe that sensors will be widely used by the end of 2016. Around 30 percent of smartphone users in Japan are interested in having smart homes connected to the internet, confirming the idea that people believe an Internet of Things is developing.4 3 types of device 2 types of device 1 type of device No device 25% 24% 27% 22% 3%6%5% 70% 70% 48% Japan South Korea Urban China 2 Ericsson ConsumerLab, Analytical platform (2014) 3 Ericsson ConsumerLab, TV and media study (2014) 4 Ericsson ConsumerLab, Analytical platform (2014) Users in North East Asia use different internet services across different locations throughout the day Share of North East Asians who own and use PCs, tablets and mobile phones Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab, Analytical platform, 2014 Base: All surveyed consumers, aged between 15 and 69 years Source: Ericsson ConsumerLab, Analytical platform (2014) Base: All surveyed consumers, aged between 15 and 69 years > Send messages > Watch TV/videos Communicate Browse the internet Work/study related online activities Send emails, IMs Browse the internet Visit social networking sites Online shopping Instant messaging Voice/video calls Entertainment and information searches Watch TV/video Browse the internet Online shopping Communicate Play games Listen to music Work/study-related online activities Send messages Listen to music Voice calls Check news updates, online browsing IN THE MORNING COMMUTING AT WORK OUT AND ABOUT IN THE EVENING
  4. 4. 4  ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT  NORTH EAST ASIA JUNE 2015 1,400 million 2 billion mobile subscriptions in 2020 Mobile subscriptions 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2,500 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 0 Mobile subscriptions, North East Asia (million) LTE subscriptions, North East Asia (million) Mainland China Japan South Korea Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 0 2014 202020192010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2018 The number of mobile subscriptions is growing rapidly in North East Asia. The total mobile subscriptions in the region reached almost 1.6 billion at the end of 2014, which is 20 percent of the global market. It will grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4 percent to 2 billion subscriptions in 2020. LTE subscriptions are exploding LTE subscriptions are expected to reach 420 million at the end of 2015. Three countries in North East Asia – Mainland China, Japan and South Korea – are among the top four countries worldwide using LTE. Migration from 3G to 4G has accelerated in Japan and South Korea. In February 2015, the Chinese government awarded Frequency Division Duplex (FDD) type licenses to two Chinese operators to boost 4G business. Taiwan launched LTE in the second half of 2014, and is heavily promoting new 4G services. There will be a rapid shift to 4G in North East Asia, reaching around 1.4 billion LTE subscriptions by the end of 2020. Smartphone subscriptions are expected to increase at 9 percent CAGR to 1.7 billion in 2020. As a result, around 90 percent of mobile phone subscriptions will be smartphone subscriptions in 2020. Other LTE subscriptions Note: 5G service is likely to start around 2020 in South Korea and Japan. 5G users in 2020 have been included in the graph
  5. 5. NORTH EAST ASIA JUNE 2015  ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT  5 Total data traffic in North East Asia was around 0.8 Exabytes per month in 2014, which corresponds to 600 Megabytes per active smartphone user, per month. Traffic will grow almost 10 times to a total of 8 Exabytes per month in 2020, or 4 Gigabytes per active smartphone user, per month. Increasing data traffic Mainland China currently has the lowest data consumption in North East Asia, due to a high number of 2G subscriptions. However, the data traffic in Mainland China is increasing with the introduction of LTE. Currently, Chinese consumers are rapidly changing to 4G, with over 70 percent of devices sold being 4G capable.5 Data traffic in the region will grow 48 percent per year on average between 2014 and 2020, while voice traffic growth will be 4 percent. Data traffic in Mainland China shows high growth of 65 percent per year in the same period. In 2020, 99 percent of mobile traffic will be data traffic in the region. High smartphone and LTE penetration rates drive data The increase of data traffic is accelerated by high smartphone and LTE penetration rates. Countries already advanced in these technologies, such as Japan and South Korea, will continue to have rising data traffic due to the growth of mobile video. mobile traffic 1 3 4 7 8 6 5 0 2 Mobile traffic, North East Asia (monthly ExaBytes) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 DataVoice 10x growth in mobile data traffic between 2014 and 2020 Data traffic in the region will grow 48% YoY between 2014 and 2020 5 Source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, China, February (2015)
  6. 6. 6  ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT  NORTH EAST ASIA JUNE 2015 Growing demand on video streaming services and operator 4K readiness The growing demand for video streaming is illustrated by the high traffic usage per smart device in North East Asian networks. Therefore, video streaming service quality is important to achieve high customer satisfaction. With the growing usage of video streaming services, the demand for a great visual experience has driven innovation in video compression, display technology and application processors in smart devices. These devices are increasingly able to capture 4K Ultra High Definition (UHD) video, and soon users will expect to be able to send and receive 4K content over their mobile networks. To support the smooth viewing of streaming 4K video content, a high speed network is needed. With the use of the H.265 high efficiency video codec, the downlink speed requirement is around 20 Mbps. North East Asian networks were analyzed to determine the probability of experiencing a downlink throughput equal to, or greater than, 20 Mbps. As the graph on the left shows, user experience varies between countries. In Mainland China, for example, there was a 44 percent probability of experiencing this speed within the duration of the analysis, while in Japan it was only 15 percent. The range is mainly due to the timing of LTE roll-out. Operators’ ongoing efforts in evolving their mobile broadband networks, through technologies like LTE-Advanced, Carrier Aggregation, and performance optimization, will continue to contribute to a superior user experience. NETWORK PERFORMANCE Measurements from Speedtest.net have been analyzed and the trends on downlink throughput (based on all technologies data) are illustrated in the graphics below. Mainland China’s median speed (50 percent probability of getting a certain speed or higher) is the best in the region at 16 Mbps, due to the newly launched 4G networks. These were dimensioned with capacity for 4G subscription growth. When analyzing Speedtest data, we define the 10th percentile (90 percent probability of getting a certain speed or higher) as cell-edge performance. Within the region, operators in Taiwan had the best cell-edge performance at 2 Mbps, according to Speedtest measurements. They have also recently launched 4G networks. Probability of user downlink speed 20 Mbps Source: Ericsson analysis of data from Ooklas NetMetrics from Speedtest.net Q4 2014 Mainland China South KoreaJapan Taiwan Hong Kong U.S. 44% 15% 29% 39% 24% 23% Source: Ericsson analysis of data from Ookla’s NetMetrics from Speedtest.net, 2015 Source: Ericsson analysis of data from Ookla’s NetMetrics from Speedtest.net, 2015 Median (50% probability) downlink throughput Cell-edge (90% probability) downlink throughput Mainland China Global, top 50 countries South Korea Japan Hong Kong Taiwan 1.5 1 0.5 00 5 10 15 UserDLthroughput(Mbps) UserDLthroughput(Mbps) 20 2 2.5 Q1 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 Q2Q3 Q3Q4 Q4Q1 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 Q2Q3 Q3Q3 Q3Q4 Q4Q4 Q4Q1 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 Q2
  7. 7. NORTH EAST ASIA JUNE 2015  ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT  7 85% 85% 95% 95% 75% 95% GSM/EDGE WCDMA/HSPA LTE 95% of the population will be covered by LTE in 2020 POPULATION COVERAGE Mobile network population coverage in the region is constantly increasing. However, GSM/EDGE has only increased slightly, as Japan and South Korea have no GSM/EDGE. WCDMA/HSPA coverage is very high – over 95 percent of the total population in the region. Since LTE was launched, operators have started to focus on LTE population coverage, especially in Mainland China. Chinese operators established a Tower Company – an infrastructure service organization for location and tower sharing. This accelerates LTE network deployment. By 2020, the LTE population coverage is forecast to be the same as WCDMA/HSPA. South Korea and Japan expand LTE-Advanced to offer faster speeds In parallel to building out LTE population coverage, operators in South Korea and Japan are also expanding their LTE-Advanced services, including Carrier Aggregation for faster speeds. The focus is shifting from population coverage to app coverage, as the number of smartphone users increase and the usage of different apps grows. App coverage describes the area in which a consumer has a high probability of experiencing sufficient network performance to run any given app. To achieve satisfying app coverage, it is vital to improve indoor network performance. Population coverage, North East Asia 2014 2020 2014 2020 2014 2020
  8. 8. EAB-15:026347 © Ericsson AB 2015 Ericsson SE-126 25 Stockholm, Sweden Telephone +46 10 719 00 00 www.ericsson.com The contents of this document are based on a number of theoretical dependencies and assumptions and Ericsson shall not be bound by or liable for any statement, representation, undertaking or omission made in this document. Furthermore Ericsson may at any time change the contents of this document at its sole discretion and shall not be liable for the consequences of such changes. The content of this document is subject to revision without notice due to continued progress in methodology, design and manufacturing. Ericsson shall have no liability for any error or damage of any kind resulting from the use of this document. Ericsson is the driving force behind the Networked Society – a world leader in communications technology and services. Our long-term relationships with every major telecom operator in the world allow people, business and society to fulfill their potential and create a more sustainable future. Our services, software and infrastructure – especially in mobility, broadband and the cloud – are enabling the telecom industry and other sectors to do better business, increase efficiency, improve the user experience and capture new opportunities. With approximately 115,000 professionals and customers in 180 countries, we combine global scale with technology and services leadership. We support networks that connect more than 2.5 billion subscribers. Forty percent of the world’s mobile traffic is carried over Ericsson networks. And our investments in research and development ensure that our solutions – and our customers – stay in front. Founded in 1876, Ericsson has its headquarters in Stockholm, Sweden. Net sales in 2014 were SEK 228.0 billion (USD 33.1 billion). Ericsson is listed on NASDAQ OMX stock exchange in Stockholm and the NASDAQ in New York.