The document discusses black swan events in search engine optimization and paid links. It notes that what is a surprise in one industry or for one observer may not be a surprise for others. It also discusses JC Penney's rapid fall in search engine results after a Google algorithm update, questioning if this was a black swan event or preventable. The document advocates identifying vulnerabilities to avoid unexpected black swan events and regulating paid links to maintain trust in search engine results.

1. From Panda to
Black Swan...
via Turkeys and
Guinea Pigs
Propellernet / Search and Social Experts

2. Why are we
surprised?

5. Defining black swan events...
1. The event is a surprise (to the
observer)
2. The event has a major impact
3. The event is later rationalised by
hindsight, as if it could have been
expected
Source: IMRG/Capgemini (2010)

8. It depends on your point of view
What is a Black Swan surprise for the
turkey is not a Black Swan surprise for the
turkey farmer
Source: IMRG/Capgemini (2010)

9. But shouldn‟t we be
an industry of turkey farmers?!
One piece of advice I give to SEO
masters is, don't chase after Google's
algorithm, chase after your best
interpretation of what users
want, because that's what Google's
chasing after.
Matt Cutts (Google) (2011)

10. It‟s not just good, old-fashioned altruism...
Google
Bing
Yahoo!
Ask
Others
UK Search Engine Market Share
February 2012 - Experian Hitwise

11. A Black Swan isn’t
always a Panda

13. Tough love hurts...
At 7pm EST on Wednesday 9 February, JC Penney was the number
one result for „Samsonite carry on luggage.‟
By 9pm it was number 71
At 7pm on Wednesday, Penney was number one for „living room
furniture.‟
By 9pm it was number 68

14. In other words...
... one moment Penney was the most
visible online destination for living room
furniture in the country.
The next it was essentially buried.

15. Was JC Penney hit by a Black Swan?
[Cutts] said Google had detected previous
guidelines violations related to
JCPenney.com on three occasions... Each
time, steps were taken that reduced
Penney‟s search results - Cutts avoids the
word “punished” - but Google did not later
“circle back” to the company to see if it
was still breaking the rules.

16. Or an Invisible Gorilla?
While it's easy to wonder how Google
missed JC Penney's paid backlinks... the
bigger question is how JC Penney
apparently missed them too.
Source: IMRG/Capgemini (2010)

17. Or is it just „complicated‟?
JC Penney did not authorize, and we were
not involved with or aware of, the posting
of the links that you sent to us, as it is
against our natural search policies...
Source: IMRG/Capgemini (2010)

18. Identify areas of
vulnerability to turn
black swans white

19. Ready to roll...
In 2012, I believe Google's search quality folks will
roll out algorithmic changes in how they value low
quality links that help them regain pride in their work.
The embarrassment and quality gap caused by
linkspam is egregious and, if left to stand, gives
competitors an opening while simultaneously
weakening searchers' trust in Google's results.
Source: IMRG/Capgemini (2010)

20. with the punches?
Just as "content farms" took their hits in 2011, I think
link spam's up for some blows in 2012.
Source: IMRG/Capgemini (2010)

22. This is what some of your peers said
Everybody else is doing it It works At worst Google will
discount those links
Fast, short term results Clients are asking us to “I‟ve got a huge monthly bill
dominate our culture. My produce results fast. We‟re for paid links and I don‟t
boss wants results now... on a performance deal so even know if they are
and fast paid links help us to working...
achieve results...

23. 60% of respondents pay for links
Do you pay for (followed) links as part of your SEO strategy?
32%
40%
28%
Attitudes to paid links and risk - 2012
65 respondents - we‟d like more!
goo.gl/gFptc

24. 57% are confident paid links are working...
If you do buy (followed) links, do you think they are working for you?
36%
57%
7%
Attitudes to paid links and risk - 2012
65 respondents - we‟d like more!
goo.gl/gFptc

25. 10% of bosses / clients are in the dark....
If you do buy (followed) links, does your boss/client understand your
strategy and risks involved?
36%
54%
10%
Attitudes to paid links and risk - 2012
65 respondents - we‟d like more!
goo.gl/gFptc

26. Visualising (in)vulnerability

28. Visualising vulnerability

29. Visualising vulnerability – life after Guinea Pig

30. It‟s a bit of a worry given that 50% of
SEO success is down to online reputation
Will experience in attempting to simulate reputation stand you in good stead this
year?
What about 2013? And 2014?
What‟s your insurance policy?

31. How do you manage risk?
How transparent is activity?
How much do your colleagues understand about the decisions
you‟re taking and the reasoning behind them?
All images

32. If we don’t start to
innovate in these
areas then others will

36. Are you ready for
PR agencies to lead
digital?!

37. Do we want to be directors or technicians?

39. Let’s go back to the
turkey farm

41. That’s it...
stefan@propellernet.co.uk
01273 760970
Propellernet / Search and Social Experts