Global Food Security - Challenges and long-term perspective
1. Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Global Food Security
Challenges and
long-term perspective
Agricultural Development Economics Division
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Rome, September 2009
2. Rome, September 2009 2Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Main messages
Hunger in the world is increasing
Crises exacerbate the situation dramatically
Important long-term challenges to agriculture as
a source of food and livelihoods
Use emerging consensus to reduce hunger and
improve food security governance
3. Rome, September 2009 3Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Trends in world hunger
4. Rome, September 2009 4Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
The current economic crisis at the core
At the heel of soaring food prices
Households with depleted coping mechanisms
Global crisis, not locally bound
However, more fundamental causes of hunger
• number of hungry has not fallen below 800 million
over the past 40 years
• even in times of economic growth and low food prices
5. Rome, September 2009 5Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Future challenges and perspectives
6. Rome, September 2009 6Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Source: UN Population Division, from van der Mensbrugghe et al. 2009
Population growth
7. Rome, September 2009 7Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Income growth
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Developing country growth (right-axis)
High-income country growth (right-axis)
Developing country GDP (left-axis)
High-income country GDP (left-axis)
Source: Simulation results with World Bank’s ENVISAGE model, from van der Mensbrugghe et al. 2009
8. Rome, September 2009 8Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
How much more needs to be produced by 2050?
255
97
63
23
148
70
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
past
future
past
future
past
future
DevelopingDevelopedWorld
Agricultural production
9. Rome, September 2009 9Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
9
14
77
21
8
71
30
18
52
25
6
69
5
8
87
2
12
86
-7
17
90
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
World
Developing countries
Latin America
sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
East Asia
Near East / North Africa
Arable land expansion Increases in cropping intensity Yield increases
Sources of growth in crop production
10. Rome, September 2009 10Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Water resources
Global abundance of water
Local shortages reaching alarming rates
Regions without potential for land and water
expansion (Near East and North Africa, South Asia)
Harvested irrigated land to expand by 17%, water
withdrawals by 11%.
11. Rome, September 2009 11Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Feeding the world in 2050
Demand can be met by expanding and better
exploiting available resources
Scenario assumes that:
• long-standing forces will continue in the long run (e.g.
population, diet shifts, urbanization)
• yield gaps can be bridged and new varieties will
further improve the ability of the world to feed itself
12. Rome, September 2009 12Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
However, many questions remain
Global scenario masks that at least 27 countries
will face undernourishment above 5% in 2050
370 million people in developing countries would
still be hungry
Several countries seem to have reached the limits
of agro-ecological potential to expand agriculture
13. Rome, September 2009 13Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Five main challenges
Yields/technology
Climate change
Biofuels
Hunger reduction and agricultural transformation
Global food security governance
14. Rome, September 2009 14Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
The yields challenge
Yield increases have accounted for the majority
of production growth in recent decades
Yields and intensification will account for 90% of
the growth in crop production
Yield Growth for major grains:
• Decline from 1.9 to 0.7 annual growth rate (1961-2007 vs. 2005-2050)
• However potential for closing the “yield gap” is high... and achievable
15. Rome, September 2009 15Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
The technology challenge
Enormous returns to Research & Development (40-50%)
Baseline projections assume a steady growth in yields
But global R&D spending is too low and decreasing
• 1981-1991: 2.1%
• 1991-2000: 1.1 % (Dev. Countries: 1.9%, Ind. Countries: 0.5% )
• Huge disparities: India (6.2%), China (3.9%)
16. Rome, September 2009 16Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Annual growth rates in agricultural R&D
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Asia & Pacific Latin America
& Caribbean
West Asia &
North Africa
Developing
countries
High-income
countries
Annualgrowthrate(percentage)
1976-81 1981-91 1991-2000
17. Rome, September 2009 17Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
The technology challenge
R&D adaptation for the needs of smallholders,
marginal areas and orphan crops
Incentive structure and resource mobilization to
ensure the right technologies for problems of the
future
Private-public partnerships for agricultural R&D
Developing gender-balanced systems for
spreading knowledge, skills and technology
18. Rome, September 2009 18Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Impacts of climate change on crop production:
vary significantly over time
are geographically unevenly distributed
Aggregate impacts of projected climate change on
the global food system are relatively small.
The global balance of food demand and supply is
not likely to be challenged until middle of the 21st
century.
Autonomous adaptation will offset some warming
Climate change challenge
19. Rome, September 2009 19Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Climate change challenge
Atmospheric changes (CO2 fertilization) may initially
increase productivity of current agricultural land
Climate change, will have a clearly negative impact in the
second half of the 21st
century
Impacts on land vary: Land suitability down in Africa and
Latin America but up (initially) elsewhere
Changes in frequencies of extreme events (droughts, heat
waves, severe storms) are more troublesome in the near
future
20. Rome, September 2009 20Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Climate change challenge
Remove key constraints to adaptation
Explore key synergies between food security,
adaptation and mitigation (technological,
institutional, financing )
Using payments for carbon as an important
source of funding for developing country
agriculture
21. Rome, September 2009 21Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
The biofuels challenge
Impacts of biofuels larger in the short and
medium run as second generation is developed
Hunger reduction hampered by increased
biofuel production
Opportunities for producers, but uneven access
to markets
22. Rome, September 2009 22Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Agricultural transformation challenge
Agriculture’s role beyond food production
• As an engine of economic growth and poverty reduction
• As an engine of growth for the rural economy
• Even in transition countries key role to reduce poverty
Share of agriculture generally declines with development
• Agro-industrialization
• Erosion of the comparative advantage of smallholders
• Pressure to commercialize or exit the sector
Protect and improve livelihoods during “agricultural
transformation”
23. Rome, September 2009 23Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Governance challenge
Create a system that promotes, supports and sustains
food security - especially for the poorest and most
marginal
Address structural causes of food insecurity and their
institutional and governance dimensions
Improve the management of the world agricultural system
Address climate change and its long and short-term
challenges
Ensure sufficient public investment in agriculture,
especially in research, extension, infrastructure and
biodiversity
24. Rome, September 2009 24Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Towards a global food security governance
Improve coordination and policy cohesion
between all key stakeholders
Better address complex and interrelated issues
of global food security
Ensure that declarations to end hunger are
converted to concrete actions
25. Rome, September 2009 25Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
Conclusions
Agriculture and food security back on the policy agenda
Right to Food accepted as a framework for global action
Rights to resources frameworks arising as a result
Reform of global food security governance
Increase public and private investment
Sound agricultural policies and strategies
Social protection and safety nets
Strengthen smallholder access to resources
Explore options for coordinated risk management
26. Rome, September 2009 26Global Food Security – Challenges and long-term perspective
Economic and Social Development Department
Food and Agriculture
Organization of the
United Nations
For more information
For more information, please visit:
http://www.fao.org/economic/es-policybriefs
Editor's Notes
From 870 million in 2004-2006 to 915 million in 2008 to 1020 million in 2009
Note expert papers are currently being finalized, and various synthesis and proceedings documents are being prepared for the High-Level Expert Forum that will take place in Rome 12-13 October 2009, which will in turn help inform the World Summit on Food Security that will take place in Rome in mid-November 2009.
WB: population grew 2.5x over past 50 years, 50% over next 50, or 0.8% per year ( around 40%) (UN medium variant)—but still 3 billion more people, almost all in developing countries, most in urban areas.
Income will grow much more rapidly in developing countries than in high-income countries, with implications for the level and composition of demand.
World Bank: global economic growth averaging 2.9%/year between 2005-2050 (1.6 for HICs and 5.2 for developing)
Per-capita incomes rising 2.2%/year to 2050; assuming income elasticity of demand for food is 0.5, per-capita food demand would increase 1.1%/year as a result of income increases; + 0.8% population growth => 1.9%/year increase in total demand for food.
(Note elasticity declines with income, and is already near 0 in most HICs, but rising demand for livestock products in developing countries, plus new competition from bio-fuels.)
WB estimates developing-country absolute poverty ($1.25 PPP/day) down from 21.9% in 2005 to 0.4 in 2050 (even in SSA, from 51.7 to 2.8)
Hillebrand estimates global absolute poverty down to 12% in 2050 if non-OECD countries match growth of last 25 years; down to 2.5% if they match growth of 2003-07.
FAO’s 2006 baseline projections (FAO, 2006a) show that by 2050 the world’s average daily calorie
availability could rise to 3130 kcal per person, an 11 percent increase over its level in 2003. This would by
2050 still leave some 4 percent of the developing countries’ population chronically undernourished8.
For these projections to materialize, world agricultural production would need to increase by some 70
percent over the period from 2005/07 to 2050 (see Table 1). World population is projected to rise by some 40
percent over this period, meaning that per caput production would rise by some 22 percent. The fact that this
would translate into an only 11 percent increase of per caput calorie availability is mainly9 due to the
expected changes in diet, i.e. a shift to higher value foods of often lower calorie content (e.g. vegetables and
fruits) and to livestock products which imply an inefficient conversion of calories of the crops used in
livestock feeds. Meat consumption per caput for example would rise from 37 kg at present to 52 kg in 2050
Other challenges include: increased investment in infrastructure, dealing with crises and emergencies, dealing with biosecurity
The literature on
yield gaps distinguishes two components of yield gaps, one due to agro-environmental and other
non-transferable factors (these gaps cannot be narrowed), and another component due to differences in crop
management practices such as sub-optimal use of inputs and other cultural practices. This second component
can be narrowed provided that it makes economic sense to do so and therefore is termed the ‘exploitable
yield gap’ or ‘bridgeable gap’.
The potential to raise crop yields (even with existing technology) seems considerable. Provided the
appropriate socio-economic incentives are in place, there are still ample ‘bridgeable’ gaps in yield (i.e. the
difference between agro-ecologically attainable and actual yields) that could be exploited. Fears that yields
(e.g. for rice) are reaching a plateau do not seem warranted (except in a few very special instances).