1.
F.A.S.T. Plan
December 2013
Financially Achievable — Saves Time
An affordable approach to creating a more
effective and user-friendly transit system
Part IX
Results: Costs & Benefits
of the FAST Plan
Produced under the auspices of Move San Diego, Inc., and the
Scripps Ranch/Miramar Ranch North Traffic Reduction Project.
© 2008 by The Mission Group
© 2013 by The Mission Group
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego
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2.
How many people would ride
transit with the FAST Plan?
© 2013 by The Mission Group
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego
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3.
We can’t be sure, because we
didn’t have access to projected data
for 2050, when the County will add
well over one million people, many
of whom will live in “transit focus
areas.”
However, we did have access
to data for the year 2006…
© 2013 by The Mission Group
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego
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4.
FAST Plan Ridership (2006 Data)
Service
Commuter Rail (Coaster)
Light Rail (SD Trolley)
Light Rail (Sprinter)
BRT (Core Routes)
BRT (MetroXpress)
Local Bus (MTS & NCTD)
Streetcar
Total “2006” Projected Ridership
2008 Actual Transit Ridership
Gain in Ridership
Likely 2050 Ridership
© 2013 by The Mission Group
Weekday
Ridership
% of Daily
Trips
4,150
1%
78,000
10%
16,600
2%
180,000
23%
286,000
36%
128,000
16%
98,000
12%
790,000
100%
345,000
445,000 (130%)
.
> 1,000,000
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego
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5.
2006 FAST Plan Ridership Flows
Many segments of the FAST Plan will carry
more riders—in some places, more than 3x
more—than the busiest segment of the
Trolley did in 2005
(or even 2013).
2005 Trolley Flow: 23,000
© 2013 by The Mission Group
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego
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6.
2006 FAST Plan Ridership Flows
Again, ridership
projections were
made using San
Diego’s 2006
population and
land use.
As San Diego
grows and more
people live by
transit, projected
ridership should
be expected to
increase
significantly.
Even so, ridership
flows on the
North/Central
component of
the FAST Plan are
equal to or better
than existing
Trolley lines.
© 2013 by The Mission Group
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego
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7.
Why would so many new
people ride the FAST
Plan?
© 2013 by The Mission Group
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego
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8.
Overall, the FAST Plan offers:
Faster (shorter) travel times
Fewer transfers
Less waiting
Better station/stop location
Greater reliability
Than our region’s current plans.
© 2013 by The Mission Group
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego
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9.
Just what would
it cost to build?
© 2013 by The Mission Group
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego
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10.
% of Total Plan Guideway Length
40%
Total Miles: 171
30%
19%
20%
10%
22%
21%
12%
10%
10%
3%
2%
0%
Bridge
© 2013 by The Mission Group
Elevated
At Grade
(New)
At Grade
(Existing)
Cut &
Open
Cut &
Cover
Bored
Tunnel
Surface
Rail
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego
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11.
SANDAG RTP Capital Costs
Mode
Millions
BRT
$
1,028
Heavy Rail
$
2,617
Light Rail
$
14,416
Rapid Bus
$
997
Streetcar
$
67
Total
$
19,125
Our region’s 2050 Regional Transportation Plan anticipates spending over $19
billion just for public transit capital projects.
© 2013 by The Mission Group
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego
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12.
FAST Plan Capital Costs
Capital Cost
FAST Plan
RTP 2050
FAST Plan Savings
Cost Difference
*The FAST Plan also
includes
Comparison
approximately
$1 billion in road
$ 13,872,950,075 projects which are
not included in this
$ 19,125,000,000 comparison since
they would not be
$
5,252,049,925* funded from the
27% transit portion of the
RTP.
Depending on how you slice and dice it, the FAST Plan may save the region
up to $5 billion in direct capital costs, and may make some road projects
unnecessary, saving further dollars.
© 2013 by The Mission Group
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego
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13.
But could we afford to operate all
those new services?
© 2013 by The Mission Group
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego
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14.
Comparative Operating Subsidy
Through 2050
SANDAG RTP
$20 Billion
FAST Plan
$11-14 Billion*
Cost Savings to the Region:
$6-9 Billion
(30-45%)
*Depending on cost model used. All models only
assume ridership based on 2006 tables for FAST Plan.
We understand the difficulty in projecting long term operating costs and
passenger revenue. Our modeling does indicate, though, that a faster transit
system can save the region billions.
© 2013 by The Mission Group
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego
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15.
Conclusion:
The FAST Plan, as a strategic approach to creating a
better integrated transit network, can:
Reach into more places
Save people more travel time
Better support “smart growth” areas
Attract many more riders
Better improve automotive traffic and
Cost significantly less to build and operate
than our current transit plans.
© 2013 by The Mission Group
Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego
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