2. gabriel.plassat @ ademe.fr
Agence De l’Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l’Energie
Service Transports et Mobilité, en charge des Energies et de la Prospective
Mobility ?
Business Models
Multi modality
Real time
Pollutions
Industry
GHG
Commuter
(Open) Data
SmartPhone
Physical meeting
VEHICLE
ENERGY Infrastructure
Future of Work
6. Money : more GDP => more km, more speed, alone …
moins de TC :
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 10 20 30 40 50
Per Capita GDP @ PPP
VehiclesPer1000People
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 10 20 30 40 50
Per Capita GDP @ PPP
VehiclesPer1000People
Vehicle Density vs. Income
(for 2002 and 2007)
Singapore
Hong Kong
United States
W. Europe & Japan
Empreinte écologique, Écart en % / moy (UK)
Fundamentals of Mobility
8. Suivi conso permanent en fonction de l’exploitation
Suivi permanent des émissions de tous les polluants
gazeux et particules en fonction de l’exploitation
What IF real pollution was known in real time ?
Who will produce this Information ?
9. Constraint on pollutants => Emissions norms Euro (IV to VI)
Links pollutants / fuel consumption and GHG
Le transport du futur devra concilier les 3 aspects :
Diversification (alternative to fossile)
+
GHG emissions under constraints (Factor 4)
+
Pollutants Emissions under constraint (Euro X)
=> Optimisation of « components » like vehicle is not sufficient
=> Need to optimise also the SYSTEM
Constraints on energy & GHG => diversification and efficiency
Addition of constraints
13. Transports & Mobility, Today
More info, clic here
NEW Veh
All Veh
1 to 3 Millions
Drivers out of
Norm :
-insurance,
-Permit
-Technical
control
years
14. More info, clic here
Transports & Mobility, Today
urban Peri-urban, rural
Mtoe
Mtoe40 Mtoe
road
50Mtoe
tGHG/y
15. essential parameters :
Type of mobility, daily – occasional, constraint - leisure, ...
Age, income,
Place of residence,
Alternative offers available
Identification and understanding of practices, of daily activities
The solutions must adapt to the multiplicity of situations (explosions configurations)
be "as good" as the individual car possessed:
- economy,
- flexibility,
- environment
- quality service
...
Which mobility?
Socio profil Mobility Behavior Automotive Behavior
16. Which mobility?
Why do you use less your personnal car ?
Reduce my demand
It’s not green
Lose my time
stress
It’s not usefull
It’s expensive
First reason to reduce car utilisation is economic (selfish)
then green (altruistic)
17. Again, First reason to use bicycle is economic & healthy
(selfish) then green (altruistic)
Why do you use more a bicycle ?
Increase demand
It’s green
It’s economic
It’s healthy
It’s rapid
No stress
Which mobility?
18. Which route toward Factor 4 ?
New
Technology
New Vehicle on the road :
• €,
• too slow !
• If less FC then more km !
TODAY NO CLEAR and SHARED VISIONS TO REACH F4, Air Quality, reduce congestions
GHG, Air Quality AQ
19. 4 pillars to consider a Mobility System
The meeting, in a given area, of a user and …
an energy: fossil, biomass, muscle, available through a distribution network,
a vehicle (which converts the energy in motion): truck, car, bicycle, walking, available
in own account or for others, property or shares,
an infrastructure (which allow the movement and possibly easier): road, rail, urban
planning, but also interfaces to change 'vehicle' : station, parking, delivery area,
logistics platform,
and Information (which allowed yesterday to facilitate the movement, and who will,
tomorrow, optimize it): theoretical hourly, hourly real-time traffic, weather, …
A Mobility System allows
In order to realise an activity.
REMEMBER
20. Industry Time scale for
innovation
Linked with Actors
Vehicle : Automotive, HDV, 2 wheels,
bicycle
5-10 years Infrastructures :
shared,
constraints
private
Energy : Oil, energy, some cities
(biogas), some farmers
(biofuels)
10-20 years Infrastructures :
network
distribution
private
Infrastructure : road, parking, rail operator, 20-50 years Vehicles, energy,
information
Publics
Informations : Telecoms, citizen (!) 0.5-2 years Vehicle, energy,
infra
Publics
(source) and
private
4 pillars to consider a Mobility System
21. What performance criteria for a solution
Mobility and Transport
• Time door to door
• Cost: investment, km
• Quality: robustness to uncertainties, always-on connectivity or zero noise
• Security: perceived real
• Environmental performance: known or unknown, knowledge generally leads to
optimization. The fact that they are known is already a step forward:
• pollutants, GHG
• Energy diversification,
• Waste direct and indirect
• noise
• urban land use
• link health / mobility (soft modes, pollution cabin)
22. 4 more free time in 100 years
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
aujourd'hui début siècle
Time Transport Budget : Stable ~ 1h for over 20 years
Need more speed for more distance
Milliers d’heure
The fundamentals, time
TODAY 1900
23. From ultra deep
exploration
To ultra deep
conversion
Is fuel expensive ?
1.5€ (0.5€ for oil company) for 42 MJ
Oil and fuels
High Technology,
More and more risky,
High characteristics
(energetic density in volum)
Without any public recognition
At a very LOW PRICE !!
24. The oil, squeezed between economic / environmental, toward a transition:
variable depending on modes of transport, an acceptable price
with alternatives necessarily massive to have a impact,
in two waves:
1. explosion in the number of pathways,
2. specialization.
1st Wave:
• 1st and 2nd generation biofuels with difficult assessments
• Natural Gas "additived" with Biogas and H2,
• Electricity (s) with variable performances,
• Short loop (HAU, biogas, crude oil) in public or private management,
With multiple solutions in most cases:
actual performance of the multi well to wheel (Biocarb, electricity) sensitive
Difficult Political decision making, little investment in infrastructure,
difficult for manufacturers to follow all the pathway
=> The first wave could be long ...
The fundamentals, Energy
25. 4000 engines / day
Millisecond, milligram,
Cubic Millimeter of fuel
Micron machined
120 000 parts identical but all different
5 years warranty – 100 000 km
Full Energy in 3 minutes
20+/- 0.5°C
Very low emissions and consumption / kWh
Vehicle – Internal Combustion Engine
Particules
NOx
HC
CO
EURO III
EURO 0
EURO -1
EURO I
EURO II
EURO IV
18
14,4
11,2
14
2,4 3,50,36 0,15 1,10,10
5,0
3,5
8,0
7,0
0,02 0,660,46
4,5
4,0
2,1
1,5
EURO V2,0
Understand domination (2)
26. time
Fuel Consumption
Reduction due to
Technical progress
But real progress are null :
Accessories (€ benefits)
Pseudo performance (€ benefits)
Constraints emissions / safety.
60 years of difference and same FC …
Progress, but for whom?
The fundamental, car economic model
27. 50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
PSA
BMW
TOYOTA
Puiss(kW)
Prix (€)
E
E
E
ET
D
E
D D
D
D
D
D
D
E
E
D
Power (maxi)
Is easy to sell !
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
PSA
BMW
TOYOTA
Prix (€)
Masse(kg)
The car is sold by kilo,
no vehicle manufacturer sell a
car lighter and more expensive
D D
D
D
D
D
E
EE
ET
The fundamental, car economic model
28. time
Fuelcons
Potentiel of
Technical benefits
Marketing
mass
Real progress
From "new needs" of consumers :
Comfort, safety, 4x4
Increase "pseudo-performance"
YESTERDAY
The fundamental
•Power (max, so unused by the client ...)
•Flat screens in the headrests, air conditioning multizone ... (mass Merchant)
•Respecting standards (Euro, security)
•While being 'similar' in use => energy efficiency is not easy to sell
time
Fuelcons
Reduction in Marketing mass
Isoperformance => "90g Now"
no extra cost
More Marketing Mass
More technology
"My minivan hybrid"
TOMORROW
ou
The fundamental, car economic model
38. How to join the « power of network »
@BlaBlaCar_FR
40. Question is not « How can we can a 2 l/100 km car ? »
But « What are the best mobility experiences, Who will produce
theses experiences ? »
Multimodality, Connexion, Mobility …
Digital become Major Technology
We see the world across Digital technology
Automotive is not main Matrix anymore
A RETENIR
41. Fashion clothing
« low cost & functional»2-3 wheels …
From multi-use…
Std Business model
Fashion vehicle
Cybercar
High technology
Transition from multi- to mono-use increase efficiency, reduce congestion and
Allow new energy and technology penetration like electricity … ( can answer to « why not
yesterday ? Why tomorrow ? What’s gona change ? » )
Transition will appear with business model modification : from vehicle to mobility services
To mono-use…
Towards Mobility 2.0
42. Mono usage
2-3 roues …
From multi-use… Fashion clothing
Walk,
Bike
Vélib’
Car
Car sharing
Location
Autolib’
Carpooling Taxi
Transp.
On demand
Bus, tram
métro
taxi
Individual association business collective
Public
Semi public
Private
45. All energies
B to C et B to B
Functionnality
economy
Top down
Bottom up
B to B
Real Perfo
Emissions
Real Fuel cons
TCO
Mobility 2.0
Complete mobility service
from door to door
Oil + engine
Multi-usage
Economy of
vehicle
Top down
B to C & B to B
Mobility 1.0
+ Infra 2.0
+ New Authority 2.0
(multimodal,
With targets Air Quality, GHG,
congestion…)
+ Personnal Travel Assistant
+ Open Data (etalab)
Political Decisions
REMEMBER
46. Autopartag
e
entre part.
Autop.
« opéré »
Flotte de voiture
« opérée »
Vélo
Libre
serv.
Voiture
possédée
Integration / complexification for
operators
Integration /
Simplification
For users
47. Mobility Integrated & factor 4
More info, clic here
How to engage these changement quickly ?
Better utilisa°
Of public transp.
49. Integration & Simplification of all transports modes
More info, clic here A.P.M. Personal Travel Assistant (PTA)
Autolib
Vélib
CarSharingPeer2 Peer
CarPooling
YesterdayToday Tomorrow
Public = private
Indiv = Collective => « free seat market »
Simple & real time access
(insurance, inscrip°…)
Simple & real time exit
(payment, reputa°)
50. With the service we can (need) to Re-design the vehicle : EDAG & Vélib …
Velib is an innovation, but a system innovation bring with
ITS, infrastructure and business model
Velib bicycle is not a good bicycle but
Velib service is successfull !
Velib service bring new Practise.
« Bad » Velib bike design are low important
than benefits on Velib service.
Then Vehicle designed for services will be « poor »
for standard vehicle consumer
& GE will be best positionned to design EV
for Mobility Services …
51. Always Car but BETTER utilisation
& connected to Public Transport
More info, clic here
New Car and other Nrj
Lighter
Pay as you move
More passenger per car
Raw material &
Investment
In excess
Raw material &
Investment mutualised
Pay as you use
Access simplif.
Payment
Insurance
Identity
confidence
Identity
Historic
reputation
52. pers.km (flux)
Billions City Extra
urban
Long
dist.
TOTAL
PC
PC serv.
Train
Bus
Bike
2 W
2 W serv
TOTAL 700
City Extra
urban
Long
dist.
TOTAL
PC
PC serv.
Train
Bus
Bike
2 W
2 W serv
TOTAL
/
pers / vehicle
=
City Extra
urban
Long
dist.
TOTAL
PC
PC serv.
Train
Bus
Bike
2 W
2 W serv
TOTAL
vehicle.km
combustion
combustion
+ electricity
electricity
gCO2/km – MJ/km
combustion
combustion
+ electricity
electricity
Utilisation (% distance)
average
gCO2/km – MJ/km
X =
X
=
MTCO2 – MJ
By energy
By vehicle
ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ)
53. ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ)
200,0
300,0
400,0
500,0
600,0
700,0
800,0
900,0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
Voyageurs
March
Voiture
VUL
Camion
325
Flux de véhicule
(Md véh.km)
Flux de voyageur
(Md voy.km) et
de Marchandises
(G T.km)
343
377
711
790
750
425 428
300
77 85
60
24
22
27
pers.km, vehicle.km and ton.km(flux)
Pers/veh in PC serv: 1,2 1,5 2
% flux by PC serv 0 (city/extra/LD) 10-10-5 25-20-15
Pers/veh in Bus ref +20% +20%/2030
% flux by Bike 4-1-0 10-6-0 15-7-0
% flux by Bus 6 10 15
54. ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ)
Emissions de GES en MTCO2 et facteur de réduction (réf 1990)
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
71,2
17,7
32,1
40,6
21,9
10,1
14,5
11
3,5
121
72
29
Voyageurs
VUL
March
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
25,00
30,00
35,00
40,00
45,00
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
Voyageurs
VUL
March
38,5 1
24,5 2
12
5
CONSOMMATIONS
ENERGETIQUES en MTEP
(liquide/gaz et électricité)
Liquide/Gaz
Liquide/Gaz
Liquide/Gaz
Electricité
Electricité
Electricité
GHG emission (MTCO2) and reduction factor
ENERGY in MTEP
• « standard » Progress
• Electric, plug-in : first for PC serv
• 2030 mix fleet : 100 gCO2/km
25 millions PC : 5% EV, 9% plug-in
• 2050 mix fleet : 56 gCO2/km
16 millions PC : 28% EV, 38% plug-in
Biofuel potential :
• 5 MTEP biogas
• 3 MTEP liquid (2G)
56. Vincent Besson : Change ahead will be as violent as the
transition from horse to the automobile »
Michel Serres : Digital evolution, 3rd of our species
after writing and printing
Stéphane Vial : « After the wood , wind, water, coal
and steel , and thermal and electrical machines ,
digital is the new matrix ».
57. • The digital becomes the dominant technique. New Industrial
empires are built around
• The mutation of the object in the service is a chance
• A new ecosystem is created , users are at the center , the
data is the fuel ( renewable)
58. 58 MOOC Challenges et enjeux de la mobilité 2.0
• Startup definition : “temporary organization designed to
search for a repeatable and scalable business model.”
Innovation(s)
75. Open source vs Patents
TESLA , TOYOTA Hydrogen
ELON As A Platform, MP II, Hyperloop
77. Open Source
Autopilot
High number
applications
High Volume
Of data
More applications
Car, truck, mini-bus
More users, more
Contributors
More data to design Autopilot
Higher volume
Of Autopilot
Lower price
Of Autopilot
78. « Data is the new oil » : user irruption,
knowledge access (but who will have the data ?)
84. TO Start, 3 wrong ideas…
• IF we provide clear demonstration, people
change
• WRONG ! WE ARE NOT RATIONAL !
Even with benefits, people don’t change
for clear reasons
• Emotional, Cultural, Social parameters
are involved in our decision process.
We Are
Rational
85. • People are always afraid to do new
things, they like repetition …
• WRONG ! Fear to change doesn’t exist.
They are difference of culture, of
understanding between people who
design the solution and those who use
them.
• We change every day during our life.
WE
don’t
like
change
86. • We need constraint and obligation
to change
• WRONG ! If we put constraint and
obligation, then we develop
resistance and by pass.
• A volontary basis change is
important to keep it during time.
Only
constraint
is
efficient
87. People need to build its own
way to change taking into
account its day to day life
We need to
participate in the
process of
conception in order
to provide its own
rationality
People need
to be volontar
in this
process
… In SUMMARY:
88. Deep Day to Day Analysis of the Activity
• By description of the activity WE take a distance
• We can SHARE this experience with our PEER
• WE AGREE on a COMMON TARGET
TARGET CO-BUILDING
• We IDENTIFY changement possibilities
• We DESIGN one solution
• We AGREE to test it in certain conditions
EXPERIMENTATION
• WE TEST as soon as possible in real life
• WE SHARE Feed back, LEARN and IMPROVE
• WE CREATE experience and learning curves
HOW to DO this ?
Décembre 2014
89. 3 barriers for Integra° & Simplifica°
More info, clic here
Identify &
Synchronise
Main competences
Industry
Behavior
Skill
acceptability
City
91. Vehicle Evolutions bring by Behavior evolution
Less is more …
More info, clic here
Car owned
Car non-owned
less km
More pass/veh
Car non-owned
And operated
less km
More pass/veh
More efficient
92. Integration & Simplification – DOUBLE Benefit !
More info, clic here
Service Mobility brings :
•Non-owned car
•With New specifications
•Used by citizens but not owned
•Shared & operated
•Using other energy
•And much more efficient
93. It’s a system of computer working as a
network (on wheels)
V7.0 can activate Autopilot
You see a car ?
94. IT’s a system of module in a vacuum tube
created by a network of decentralised
startups
You see a new « train »
101. 101
Innovations are changing…
Uber, Waze, Blablacar, Drivy… and next ?
New mobility behaviour at large scale
Massives solutions Techno & Socio
Identify, support and accelerate
1er sector for GHG, pollution, congestion
FabMob version proto
FABRIQUE DES MOBILITES A NEW WAY TO SUPPORT INNOVATION
104. 104
Linving labs for testing
(Infrastructures, vehicles, data, community, …)
Expertises, Mentors
Test bench, Calculation tools, Fablabs
Learning capacity
And Commons
TO BRING RESOURCES AND ACCELERATIONS TO PROJECTS
105. 105
ILS ACCÈDENT :
- RESSOURCES
- COMMUNS
- ACCOMPAGNEMENT
IMPROVE THE
COMMONS
5 PUIS 10 À 100 PAR AN
106. Sans Android (et Linux, et iOS,...), votre mobile ne serait pas ce qu’il est
1
0
6
juin 2017
109. La Fabrique, une machine à créer des communs
1
0
9
juin 2017
Une communauté (2 à 20) a besoin d’une ressource
Est-elle existante et ouverte ? Indexation et documentation
http://communs.lafabrique…
Est-elle existante et fermée ? Accompagner l’ouverture
Open Challenge
Aider à la création Mutualisation,
Co-financement, Choix de la licence
Appel à commun
OUI
OUI
NON
NON NON
110. Venez à votre énergie, on s’occupe du reste / wiki.lafabriquedesmobilites.fr
Vous avez une idée, une communauté / déposer votre projet
Pas de communauté / rejoignez les communautés existantes
De la volonté / rejoignez les projets de communs en cours
25
1
1
0
112. Research actions for Mobility 2.0
• Multi-field : socio to techno, ITS to logistic …
• Users science : how generate confidance ?
How to integrate new user behavior ?
• Understanding & Optimisation of complex
system,
• New method to understand new demand, to
design solutions with users and providers,
• Tool for capitalisation in order to
« industrialise » methodology (not the
solutions)
• Living labs, requested to test, design, validate
113. • Transition from Vehicle-object to Service is a
chance for industry, citizen and environment,
• New Value Chains, new actor,
• Who will be multimodal mobility operator?
• New ecosystem, user will be center
• Data is the heart : to share
• New culture to develop : education, learning in
projects
REMEMBER