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gabriel.plassat @ ademe.fr
http://gabrielplassat.fr
Mobility & Transportation
System for the Future
Which Mobility for the future ? For every one, everywhere
In a world of less raw material and more intelligence …
gabriel.plassat @ ademe.fr
Agence De l’Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l’Energie
Service Transports et Mobilité, en charge des Energies et de la Prospective
Mobility ?
Business Models
Multi modality
Real time
Pollutions
Industry
GHG
Commuter
(Open) Data
SmartPhone
Physical meeting
VEHICLE
ENERGY Infrastructure
Future of Work
http://transportsdufutur.typepad.fr
Horse > Car > ?
LIEN =>
Money : more GDP => more km, more speed, alone …
moins de TC :
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 10 20 30 40 50
Per Capita GDP @ PPP
VehiclesPer1000People
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 10 20 30 40 50
Per Capita GDP @ PPP
VehiclesPer1000People
Vehicle Density vs. Income
(for 2002 and 2007)
Singapore
Hong Kong
United States
W. Europe & Japan
Empreinte écologique, Écart en % / moy (UK)
Fundamentals of Mobility
http://air-climate.eionet.europa.eu/docs/ETCACC_TP_2009_10_prelim_AQQanalysis_2008.pdf
First SYMPTOMS : Air POLLUTION
Cadastre population
POPULATION EXPOSITION
POLLUTION
IMPACT Function
DESEASE &
DEAD Numbers
0
EXTERNAL
COSTS
Air Pollution Map
Population
repartition
COSTS
[ ]
Suivi conso permanent en fonction de l’exploitation
Suivi permanent des émissions de tous les polluants
gazeux et particules en fonction de l’exploitation
What IF real pollution was known in real time ?
Who will produce this Information ?
Constraint on pollutants => Emissions norms Euro (IV to VI)
Links pollutants / fuel consumption and GHG
Le transport du futur devra concilier les 3 aspects :
Diversification (alternative to fossile)
+
GHG emissions under constraints (Factor 4)
+
Pollutants Emissions under constraint (Euro X)
=> Optimisation of « components » like vehicle is not sufficient
=> Need to optimise also the SYSTEM
Constraints on energy & GHG => diversification and efficiency
Addition of constraints
Shanghai, China
Baku, Azerbaijan
Smart Mobility ENPC Telecom Evolution 2017
Transports & Mobility, Today
More info, clic here
NEW Veh
All Veh
1 to 3 Millions
Drivers out of
Norm :
-insurance,
-Permit
-Technical
control
years
More info, clic here
Transports & Mobility, Today
urban Peri-urban, rural
Mtoe
Mtoe40 Mtoe
road
50Mtoe
tGHG/y
essential parameters :
Type of mobility, daily – occasional, constraint - leisure, ...
Age, income,
Place of residence,
Alternative offers available
Identification and understanding of practices, of daily activities
The solutions must adapt to the multiplicity of situations (explosions configurations)
be "as good" as the individual car possessed:
- economy,
- flexibility,
- environment
- quality service
...
Which mobility?
Socio profil Mobility Behavior Automotive Behavior
Which mobility?
Why do you use less your personnal car ?
Reduce my demand
It’s not green
Lose my time
stress
It’s not usefull
It’s expensive
First reason to reduce car utilisation is economic (selfish)
then green (altruistic)
Again, First reason to use bicycle is economic & healthy
(selfish) then green (altruistic)
Why do you use more a bicycle ?
Increase demand
It’s green
It’s economic
It’s healthy
It’s rapid
No stress
Which mobility?
Which route toward Factor 4 ?
New
Technology
New Vehicle on the road :
• €,
• too slow !
• If less FC then more km !
TODAY NO CLEAR and SHARED VISIONS TO REACH F4, Air Quality, reduce congestions
GHG, Air Quality AQ
4 pillars to consider a Mobility System
The meeting, in a given area, of a user and …
an energy: fossil, biomass, muscle, available through a distribution network,
a vehicle (which converts the energy in motion): truck, car, bicycle, walking, available
in own account or for others, property or shares,
an infrastructure (which allow the movement and possibly easier): road, rail, urban
planning, but also interfaces to change 'vehicle' : station, parking, delivery area,
logistics platform,
and Information (which allowed yesterday to facilitate the movement, and who will,
tomorrow, optimize it): theoretical hourly, hourly real-time traffic, weather, …
A Mobility System allows
In order to realise an activity.
REMEMBER
Industry Time scale for
innovation
Linked with Actors
Vehicle : Automotive, HDV, 2 wheels,
bicycle
5-10 years Infrastructures :
shared,
constraints
private
Energy : Oil, energy, some cities
(biogas), some farmers
(biofuels)
10-20 years Infrastructures :
network
distribution
private
Infrastructure : road, parking, rail operator, 20-50 years Vehicles, energy,
information
Publics
Informations : Telecoms, citizen (!) 0.5-2 years Vehicle, energy,
infra
Publics
(source) and
private
4 pillars to consider a Mobility System
What performance criteria for a solution
Mobility and Transport
• Time door to door
• Cost: investment, km
• Quality: robustness to uncertainties, always-on connectivity or zero noise
• Security: perceived real
• Environmental performance: known or unknown, knowledge generally leads to
optimization. The fact that they are known is already a step forward:
• pollutants, GHG
• Energy diversification,
• Waste direct and indirect
• noise
• urban land use
• link health / mobility (soft modes, pollution cabin)
4 more free time in 100 years
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
aujourd'hui début siècle
Time Transport Budget : Stable ~ 1h for over 20 years
Need more speed for more distance
Milliers d’heure
The fundamentals, time
TODAY 1900
From ultra deep
exploration
To ultra deep
conversion
Is fuel expensive ?
1.5€ (0.5€ for oil company) for 42 MJ
Oil and fuels
High Technology,
More and more risky,
High characteristics
(energetic density in volum)
Without any public recognition
At a very LOW PRICE !!
The oil, squeezed between economic / environmental, toward a transition:
variable depending on modes of transport, an acceptable price
with alternatives necessarily massive to have a impact,
in two waves:
1. explosion in the number of pathways,
2. specialization.
1st Wave:
• 1st and 2nd generation biofuels with difficult assessments
• Natural Gas "additived" with Biogas and H2,
• Electricity (s) with variable performances,
• Short loop (HAU, biogas, crude oil) in public or private management,
With multiple solutions in most cases:
actual performance of the multi well to wheel (Biocarb, electricity) sensitive
Difficult Political decision making, little investment in infrastructure,
difficult for manufacturers to follow all the pathway
=> The first wave could be long ...
The fundamentals, Energy
4000 engines / day
Millisecond, milligram,
Cubic Millimeter of fuel
Micron machined
120 000 parts identical but all different
5 years warranty – 100 000 km
Full Energy in 3 minutes
20+/- 0.5°C
Very low emissions and consumption / kWh
Vehicle – Internal Combustion Engine
Particules
NOx
HC
CO
EURO III
EURO 0
EURO -1
EURO I
EURO II
EURO IV
18
14,4
11,2
14
2,4 3,50,36 0,15 1,10,10
5,0
3,5
8,0
7,0
0,02 0,660,46
4,5
4,0
2,1
1,5
EURO V2,0
Understand domination (2)
time
Fuel Consumption
Reduction due to
Technical progress
But real progress are null :
Accessories (€ benefits)
Pseudo performance (€ benefits)
Constraints emissions / safety.
60 years of difference and same FC …
Progress, but for whom?
The fundamental, car economic model
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
PSA
BMW
TOYOTA
Puiss(kW)
Prix (€)
E
E
E
ET
D
E
D D
D
D
D
D
D
E
E
D
Power (maxi)
Is easy to sell !
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
PSA
BMW
TOYOTA
Prix (€)
Masse(kg)
The car is sold by kilo,
no vehicle manufacturer sell a
car lighter and more expensive
D D
D
D
D
D
E
EE
ET
The fundamental, car economic model
time
Fuelcons
Potentiel of
Technical benefits
Marketing
mass
Real progress
From "new needs" of consumers :
Comfort, safety, 4x4
Increase "pseudo-performance"
YESTERDAY
The fundamental
•Power (max, so unused by the client ...)
•Flat screens in the headrests, air conditioning multizone ... (mass Merchant)
•Respecting standards (Euro, security)
•While being 'similar' in use => energy efficiency is not easy to sell
time
Fuelcons
Reduction in Marketing mass
Isoperformance => "90g Now"
no extra cost
More Marketing Mass
More technology
"My minivan hybrid"
TOMORROW
ou
The fundamental, car economic model
Mobility
Immobility
Activity
MutationS
Where are you working ?
In US, 30% of workers are « alone » and it’s increasing
In the same time…
In the same time…
In the same time…
VIDEO
Google History
What about Health and Mobility ?
In the same time…
Smart Mobility ENPC Telecom Evolution 2017
In the same time…
How to join the « power of network »
@BlaBlaCar_FR
Smart Mobility ENPC Telecom Evolution 2017
Question is not « How can we can a 2 l/100 km car ? »
But « What are the best mobility experiences, Who will produce
theses experiences ? »
Multimodality, Connexion, Mobility …
Digital become Major Technology
We see the world across Digital technology
Automotive is not main Matrix anymore
A RETENIR
Fashion clothing
« low cost & functional»2-3 wheels …
From multi-use…
Std Business model
Fashion vehicle
Cybercar
High technology
Transition from multi- to mono-use increase efficiency, reduce congestion and
Allow new energy and technology penetration like electricity … ( can answer to « why not
yesterday ? Why tomorrow ? What’s gona change ? » )
Transition will appear with business model modification : from vehicle to mobility services
To mono-use…
Towards Mobility 2.0
Mono usage
2-3 roues …
From multi-use… Fashion clothing
Walk,
Bike
Vélib’
Car
Car sharing
Location
Autolib’
Carpooling Taxi
Transp.
On demand
Bus, tram
métro
taxi
Individual association business collective
Public
Semi public
Private
Smart Mobility ENPC Telecom Evolution 2017
Smart Mobility ENPC Telecom Evolution 2017
All energies
B to C et B to B
Functionnality
economy
Top down
Bottom up
B to B
Real Perfo
Emissions
Real Fuel cons
TCO
Mobility 2.0
Complete mobility service
from door to door
Oil + engine
Multi-usage
Economy of
vehicle
Top down
B to C & B to B
Mobility 1.0
+ Infra 2.0
+ New Authority 2.0
(multimodal,
With targets Air Quality, GHG,
congestion…)
+ Personnal Travel Assistant
+ Open Data (etalab)
Political Decisions
REMEMBER
Autopartag
e
entre part.
Autop.
« opéré »
Flotte de voiture
« opérée »
Vélo
Libre
serv.
Voiture
possédée
Integration / complexification for
operators
Integration /
Simplification
For users
Mobility Integrated & factor 4
More info, clic here
How to engage these changement quickly ?
Better utilisa°
Of public transp.
From horse to car
From car to ?
Integration & Simplification of all transports modes
More info, clic here A.P.M. Personal Travel Assistant (PTA)
Autolib
Vélib
CarSharingPeer2 Peer
CarPooling
YesterdayToday Tomorrow
Public = private
Indiv = Collective => « free seat market »
Simple & real time access
(insurance, inscrip°…)
Simple & real time exit
(payment, reputa°)
With the service we can (need) to Re-design the vehicle : EDAG & Vélib …
Velib is an innovation, but a system innovation bring with
ITS, infrastructure and business model
Velib bicycle is not a good bicycle but
Velib service is successfull !
Velib service bring new Practise.
« Bad » Velib bike design are low important
than benefits on Velib service.
Then Vehicle designed for services will be « poor »
for standard vehicle consumer
& GE will be best positionned to design EV
for Mobility Services …
Always Car but BETTER utilisation
& connected to Public Transport
More info, clic here
New Car and other Nrj
Lighter
Pay as you move
More passenger per car
Raw material &
Investment
In excess
Raw material &
Investment mutualised
Pay as you use
Access simplif.
Payment
Insurance
Identity
confidence
Identity
Historic
reputation
pers.km (flux)
Billions City Extra
urban
Long
dist.
TOTAL
PC
PC serv.
Train
Bus
Bike
2 W
2 W serv
TOTAL 700
City Extra
urban
Long
dist.
TOTAL
PC
PC serv.
Train
Bus
Bike
2 W
2 W serv
TOTAL
/
pers / vehicle
=
City Extra
urban
Long
dist.
TOTAL
PC
PC serv.
Train
Bus
Bike
2 W
2 W serv
TOTAL
vehicle.km
combustion
combustion
+ electricity
electricity
gCO2/km – MJ/km
combustion
combustion
+ electricity
electricity
Utilisation (% distance)
average
gCO2/km – MJ/km
X =
X
=
MTCO2 – MJ
By energy
By vehicle
ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ)
ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ)
200,0
300,0
400,0
500,0
600,0
700,0
800,0
900,0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
Voyageurs
March
Voiture
VUL
Camion
325
Flux de véhicule
(Md véh.km)
Flux de voyageur
(Md voy.km) et
de Marchandises
(G T.km)
343
377
711
790
750
425 428
300
77 85
60
24
22
27
pers.km, vehicle.km and ton.km(flux)
Pers/veh in PC serv: 1,2 1,5 2
% flux by PC serv 0 (city/extra/LD) 10-10-5 25-20-15
Pers/veh in Bus ref +20% +20%/2030
% flux by Bike 4-1-0 10-6-0 15-7-0
% flux by Bus 6 10 15
ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ)
Emissions de GES en MTCO2 et facteur de réduction (réf 1990)
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
71,2
17,7
32,1
40,6
21,9
10,1
14,5
11
3,5
121
72
29
Voyageurs
VUL
March
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
25,00
30,00
35,00
40,00
45,00
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
Voyageurs
VUL
March
38,5 1
24,5 2
12
5
CONSOMMATIONS
ENERGETIQUES en MTEP
(liquide/gaz et électricité)
Liquide/Gaz
Liquide/Gaz
Liquide/Gaz
Electricité
Electricité
Electricité
GHG emission (MTCO2) and reduction factor
ENERGY in MTEP
• « standard » Progress
• Electric, plug-in : first for PC serv
• 2030 mix fleet : 100 gCO2/km
25 millions PC : 5% EV, 9% plug-in
• 2050 mix fleet : 56 gCO2/km
16 millions PC : 28% EV, 38% plug-in
Biofuel potential :
• 5 MTEP biogas
• 3 MTEP liquid (2G)
Smart Mobility ENPC Telecom Evolution 2017
Vincent Besson : Change ahead will be as violent as the
transition from horse to the automobile »
Michel Serres : Digital evolution, 3rd of our species
after writing and printing
Stéphane Vial : « After the wood , wind, water, coal
and steel , and thermal and electrical machines ,
digital is the new matrix ».
• The digital becomes the dominant technique. New Industrial
empires are built around
• The mutation of the object in the service is a chance
• A new ecosystem is created , users are at the center , the
data is the fuel ( renewable)
58 MOOC Challenges et enjeux de la mobilité 2.0
• Startup definition : “temporary organization designed to
search for a repeatable and scalable business model.”
Innovation(s)
+
Network Tool for simplification
Smart Mobility ENPC Telecom Evolution 2017
par @15marches, Stéphane Schultz
Smart Mobility ENPC Telecom Evolution 2017
PLATFORMS
PLATFORM
North America Europe Africa & Latin
America
Asia
Source: P. Evans, CGE; CB Insights, Capital IQ, CrunchBase, 2015
Smart Mobility ENPC Telecom Evolution 2017
Smart Mobility ENPC Telecom Evolution 2017
BLOCKCHAINED TRAVEL ?
FULLY PEER 2 PEER
P2P PLATFORMS
Smart Mobility ENPC Telecom Evolution 2017
« Company Value in Digital economy : its capacity to
capture positive externality created by the users »
Smart Mobility ENPC Telecom Evolution 2017
UBER Partnerships
Smart Mobility ENPC Telecom Evolution 2017
Smart Mobility ENPC Telecom Evolution 2017
LIEN =>
LIEN =>
Open source vs Patents
TESLA , TOYOTA Hydrogen
ELON As A Platform, MP II, Hyperloop
Smart Mobility ENPC Telecom Evolution 2017
Open Source
Autopilot
High number
applications
High Volume
Of data
More applications
Car, truck, mini-bus
More users, more
Contributors
More data to design Autopilot
Higher volume
Of Autopilot
Lower price
Of Autopilot
« Data is the new oil » : user irruption,
knowledge access (but who will have the data ?)
How are we moving ? v1.0 (publ.)
How are we moving ? v2.0 (private)
Application
Digital routes …
« Bikability »
How are we moving ? v2.0 (publ/private)
=
Lot 2
Lot 3
Lot 4
How are we moving ? v2.0 (publ/private)
… by co-conception and
experimentation
Behavior CHANGE
TO Start, 3 wrong ideas…
• IF we provide clear demonstration, people
change
• WRONG ! WE ARE NOT RATIONAL !
Even with benefits, people don’t change
for clear reasons
• Emotional, Cultural, Social parameters
are involved in our decision process.
We Are
Rational
• People are always afraid to do new
things, they like repetition …
• WRONG ! Fear to change doesn’t exist.
They are difference of culture, of
understanding between people who
design the solution and those who use
them.
• We change every day during our life.
WE
don’t
like
change
• We need constraint and obligation
to change
• WRONG ! If we put constraint and
obligation, then we develop
resistance and by pass.
• A volontary basis change is
important to keep it during time.
Only
constraint
is
efficient
People need to build its own
way to change taking into
account its day to day life
We need to
participate in the
process of
conception in order
to provide its own
rationality
People need
to be volontar
in this
process
… In SUMMARY:
Deep Day to Day Analysis of the Activity
• By description of the activity WE take a distance
• We can SHARE this experience with our PEER
• WE AGREE on a COMMON TARGET
TARGET CO-BUILDING
• We IDENTIFY changement possibilities
• We DESIGN one solution
• We AGREE to test it in certain conditions
EXPERIMENTATION
• WE TEST as soon as possible in real life
• WE SHARE Feed back, LEARN and IMPROVE
• WE CREATE experience and learning curves
HOW to DO this ?
Décembre 2014
3 barriers for Integra° & Simplifica°
More info, clic here
Identify &
Synchronise
Main competences
Industry
Behavior
Skill
acceptability
City
Example Ha:Mo by Toyota
VIDEO
HA:Mo
Vehicle Evolutions bring by Behavior evolution
Less is more …
More info, clic here
Car owned
Car non-owned
less km
More pass/veh
Car non-owned
And operated
less km
More pass/veh
More efficient
Integration & Simplification – DOUBLE Benefit !
More info, clic here
Service Mobility brings :
•Non-owned car
•With New specifications
•Used by citizens but not owned
•Shared & operated
•Using other energy
•And much more efficient
It’s a system of computer working as a
network (on wheels)
V7.0 can activate Autopilot
You see a car ?
IT’s a system of module in a vacuum tube
created by a network of decentralised
startups
You see a new « train »
The major innovation will be
not to own a car..
Smartphone,
= new key
I
I
I
Smart Mobility ENPC Telecom Evolution 2017
Driverless Cities
101
Innovations are changing…
Uber, Waze, Blablacar, Drivy… and next ?
New mobility behaviour at large scale
Massives solutions Techno & Socio
Identify, support and accelerate
1er sector for GHG, pollution, congestion
FabMob version proto
FABRIQUE DES MOBILITES A NEW WAY TO SUPPORT INNOVATION
102
BRINGING RESOURCES TO ENTREPRENEURS
103
Les Partners
bring resources to projects
think tank
écoles
pôles
104
Linving labs for testing
(Infrastructures, vehicles, data, community, …)
Expertises, Mentors
Test bench, Calculation tools, Fablabs
Learning capacity
And Commons
TO BRING RESOURCES AND ACCELERATIONS TO PROJECTS
105
ILS ACCÈDENT :
- RESSOURCES
- COMMUNS
- ACCOMPAGNEMENT
IMPROVE THE
COMMONS
5 PUIS 10 À 100 PAR AN
Sans Android (et Linux, et iOS,...), votre mobile ne serait pas ce qu’il est
1
0
6
juin 2017
Disposer de briques pour construire ce que l’on veut
1
0
7
juin 2017
1
0
8
juin 2017
Les pouvoirs des communs
?
La Fabrique, une machine à créer des communs
1
0
9
juin 2017
Une communauté (2 à 20) a besoin d’une ressource
Est-elle existante et ouverte ? Indexation et documentation
http://communs.lafabrique…
Est-elle existante et fermée ? Accompagner l’ouverture
Open Challenge
Aider à la création Mutualisation,
Co-financement, Choix de la licence
Appel à commun
OUI
OUI
NON
NON NON
Venez à votre énergie, on s’occupe du reste / wiki.lafabriquedesmobilites.fr
Vous avez une idée, une communauté / déposer votre projet
Pas de communauté / rejoignez les communautés existantes
De la volonté / rejoignez les projets de communs en cours
25
1
1
0
111
Les Communs
Innover par des plateformes ouvertes
http://communs.lafabriquedesmobilites.fr
Research actions for Mobility 2.0
• Multi-field : socio to techno, ITS to logistic …
• Users science : how generate confidance ?
How to integrate new user behavior ?
• Understanding & Optimisation of complex
system,
• New method to understand new demand, to
design solutions with users and providers,
• Tool for capitalisation in order to
« industrialise » methodology (not the
solutions)
• Living labs, requested to test, design, validate
• Transition from Vehicle-object to Service is a
chance for industry, citizen and environment,
• New Value Chains, new actor,
• Who will be multimodal mobility operator?
• New ecosystem, user will be center
• Data is the heart : to share
• New culture to develop : education, learning in
projects
REMEMBER
Smart Mobility ENPC Telecom Evolution 2017

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Smart Mobility ENPC Telecom Evolution 2017

  • 1. gabriel.plassat @ ademe.fr http://gabrielplassat.fr Mobility & Transportation System for the Future Which Mobility for the future ? For every one, everywhere In a world of less raw material and more intelligence …
  • 2. gabriel.plassat @ ademe.fr Agence De l’Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l’Energie Service Transports et Mobilité, en charge des Energies et de la Prospective Mobility ? Business Models Multi modality Real time Pollutions Industry GHG Commuter (Open) Data SmartPhone Physical meeting VEHICLE ENERGY Infrastructure Future of Work
  • 6. Money : more GDP => more km, more speed, alone … moins de TC : 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 10 20 30 40 50 Per Capita GDP @ PPP VehiclesPer1000People 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 10 20 30 40 50 Per Capita GDP @ PPP VehiclesPer1000People Vehicle Density vs. Income (for 2002 and 2007) Singapore Hong Kong United States W. Europe & Japan Empreinte écologique, Écart en % / moy (UK) Fundamentals of Mobility
  • 7. http://air-climate.eionet.europa.eu/docs/ETCACC_TP_2009_10_prelim_AQQanalysis_2008.pdf First SYMPTOMS : Air POLLUTION Cadastre population POPULATION EXPOSITION POLLUTION IMPACT Function DESEASE & DEAD Numbers 0 EXTERNAL COSTS Air Pollution Map Population repartition COSTS [ ]
  • 8. Suivi conso permanent en fonction de l’exploitation Suivi permanent des émissions de tous les polluants gazeux et particules en fonction de l’exploitation What IF real pollution was known in real time ? Who will produce this Information ?
  • 9. Constraint on pollutants => Emissions norms Euro (IV to VI) Links pollutants / fuel consumption and GHG Le transport du futur devra concilier les 3 aspects : Diversification (alternative to fossile) + GHG emissions under constraints (Factor 4) + Pollutants Emissions under constraint (Euro X) => Optimisation of « components » like vehicle is not sufficient => Need to optimise also the SYSTEM Constraints on energy & GHG => diversification and efficiency Addition of constraints
  • 13. Transports & Mobility, Today More info, clic here NEW Veh All Veh 1 to 3 Millions Drivers out of Norm : -insurance, -Permit -Technical control years
  • 14. More info, clic here Transports & Mobility, Today urban Peri-urban, rural Mtoe Mtoe40 Mtoe road 50Mtoe tGHG/y
  • 15. essential parameters : Type of mobility, daily – occasional, constraint - leisure, ... Age, income, Place of residence, Alternative offers available Identification and understanding of practices, of daily activities The solutions must adapt to the multiplicity of situations (explosions configurations) be "as good" as the individual car possessed: - economy, - flexibility, - environment - quality service ... Which mobility? Socio profil Mobility Behavior Automotive Behavior
  • 16. Which mobility? Why do you use less your personnal car ? Reduce my demand It’s not green Lose my time stress It’s not usefull It’s expensive First reason to reduce car utilisation is economic (selfish) then green (altruistic)
  • 17. Again, First reason to use bicycle is economic & healthy (selfish) then green (altruistic) Why do you use more a bicycle ? Increase demand It’s green It’s economic It’s healthy It’s rapid No stress Which mobility?
  • 18. Which route toward Factor 4 ? New Technology New Vehicle on the road : • €, • too slow ! • If less FC then more km ! TODAY NO CLEAR and SHARED VISIONS TO REACH F4, Air Quality, reduce congestions GHG, Air Quality AQ
  • 19. 4 pillars to consider a Mobility System The meeting, in a given area, of a user and … an energy: fossil, biomass, muscle, available through a distribution network, a vehicle (which converts the energy in motion): truck, car, bicycle, walking, available in own account or for others, property or shares, an infrastructure (which allow the movement and possibly easier): road, rail, urban planning, but also interfaces to change 'vehicle' : station, parking, delivery area, logistics platform, and Information (which allowed yesterday to facilitate the movement, and who will, tomorrow, optimize it): theoretical hourly, hourly real-time traffic, weather, … A Mobility System allows In order to realise an activity. REMEMBER
  • 20. Industry Time scale for innovation Linked with Actors Vehicle : Automotive, HDV, 2 wheels, bicycle 5-10 years Infrastructures : shared, constraints private Energy : Oil, energy, some cities (biogas), some farmers (biofuels) 10-20 years Infrastructures : network distribution private Infrastructure : road, parking, rail operator, 20-50 years Vehicles, energy, information Publics Informations : Telecoms, citizen (!) 0.5-2 years Vehicle, energy, infra Publics (source) and private 4 pillars to consider a Mobility System
  • 21. What performance criteria for a solution Mobility and Transport • Time door to door • Cost: investment, km • Quality: robustness to uncertainties, always-on connectivity or zero noise • Security: perceived real • Environmental performance: known or unknown, knowledge generally leads to optimization. The fact that they are known is already a step forward: • pollutants, GHG • Energy diversification, • Waste direct and indirect • noise • urban land use • link health / mobility (soft modes, pollution cabin)
  • 22. 4 more free time in 100 years 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 aujourd'hui début siècle Time Transport Budget : Stable ~ 1h for over 20 years Need more speed for more distance Milliers d’heure The fundamentals, time TODAY 1900
  • 23. From ultra deep exploration To ultra deep conversion Is fuel expensive ? 1.5€ (0.5€ for oil company) for 42 MJ Oil and fuels High Technology, More and more risky, High characteristics (energetic density in volum) Without any public recognition At a very LOW PRICE !!
  • 24. The oil, squeezed between economic / environmental, toward a transition: variable depending on modes of transport, an acceptable price with alternatives necessarily massive to have a impact, in two waves: 1. explosion in the number of pathways, 2. specialization. 1st Wave: • 1st and 2nd generation biofuels with difficult assessments • Natural Gas "additived" with Biogas and H2, • Electricity (s) with variable performances, • Short loop (HAU, biogas, crude oil) in public or private management, With multiple solutions in most cases: actual performance of the multi well to wheel (Biocarb, electricity) sensitive Difficult Political decision making, little investment in infrastructure, difficult for manufacturers to follow all the pathway => The first wave could be long ... The fundamentals, Energy
  • 25. 4000 engines / day Millisecond, milligram, Cubic Millimeter of fuel Micron machined 120 000 parts identical but all different 5 years warranty – 100 000 km Full Energy in 3 minutes 20+/- 0.5°C Very low emissions and consumption / kWh Vehicle – Internal Combustion Engine Particules NOx HC CO EURO III EURO 0 EURO -1 EURO I EURO II EURO IV 18 14,4 11,2 14 2,4 3,50,36 0,15 1,10,10 5,0 3,5 8,0 7,0 0,02 0,660,46 4,5 4,0 2,1 1,5 EURO V2,0 Understand domination (2)
  • 26. time Fuel Consumption Reduction due to Technical progress But real progress are null : Accessories (€ benefits) Pseudo performance (€ benefits) Constraints emissions / safety. 60 years of difference and same FC … Progress, but for whom? The fundamental, car economic model
  • 27. 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 PSA BMW TOYOTA Puiss(kW) Prix (€) E E E ET D E D D D D D D D E E D Power (maxi) Is easy to sell ! 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 PSA BMW TOYOTA Prix (€) Masse(kg) The car is sold by kilo, no vehicle manufacturer sell a car lighter and more expensive D D D D D D E EE ET The fundamental, car economic model
  • 28. time Fuelcons Potentiel of Technical benefits Marketing mass Real progress From "new needs" of consumers : Comfort, safety, 4x4 Increase "pseudo-performance" YESTERDAY The fundamental •Power (max, so unused by the client ...) •Flat screens in the headrests, air conditioning multizone ... (mass Merchant) •Respecting standards (Euro, security) •While being 'similar' in use => energy efficiency is not easy to sell time Fuelcons Reduction in Marketing mass Isoperformance => "90g Now" no extra cost More Marketing Mass More technology "My minivan hybrid" TOMORROW ou The fundamental, car economic model
  • 30. Where are you working ? In US, 30% of workers are « alone » and it’s increasing
  • 31. In the same time…
  • 32. In the same time…
  • 33. In the same time… VIDEO Google History
  • 34. What about Health and Mobility ?
  • 35. In the same time…
  • 37. In the same time…
  • 38. How to join the « power of network » @BlaBlaCar_FR
  • 40. Question is not « How can we can a 2 l/100 km car ? » But « What are the best mobility experiences, Who will produce theses experiences ? » Multimodality, Connexion, Mobility … Digital become Major Technology We see the world across Digital technology Automotive is not main Matrix anymore A RETENIR
  • 41. Fashion clothing « low cost & functional»2-3 wheels … From multi-use… Std Business model Fashion vehicle Cybercar High technology Transition from multi- to mono-use increase efficiency, reduce congestion and Allow new energy and technology penetration like electricity … ( can answer to « why not yesterday ? Why tomorrow ? What’s gona change ? » ) Transition will appear with business model modification : from vehicle to mobility services To mono-use… Towards Mobility 2.0
  • 42. Mono usage 2-3 roues … From multi-use… Fashion clothing Walk, Bike Vélib’ Car Car sharing Location Autolib’ Carpooling Taxi Transp. On demand Bus, tram métro taxi Individual association business collective Public Semi public Private
  • 45. All energies B to C et B to B Functionnality economy Top down Bottom up B to B Real Perfo Emissions Real Fuel cons TCO Mobility 2.0 Complete mobility service from door to door Oil + engine Multi-usage Economy of vehicle Top down B to C & B to B Mobility 1.0 + Infra 2.0 + New Authority 2.0 (multimodal, With targets Air Quality, GHG, congestion…) + Personnal Travel Assistant + Open Data (etalab) Political Decisions REMEMBER
  • 46. Autopartag e entre part. Autop. « opéré » Flotte de voiture « opérée » Vélo Libre serv. Voiture possédée Integration / complexification for operators Integration / Simplification For users
  • 47. Mobility Integrated & factor 4 More info, clic here How to engage these changement quickly ? Better utilisa° Of public transp.
  • 48. From horse to car From car to ?
  • 49. Integration & Simplification of all transports modes More info, clic here A.P.M. Personal Travel Assistant (PTA) Autolib Vélib CarSharingPeer2 Peer CarPooling YesterdayToday Tomorrow Public = private Indiv = Collective => « free seat market » Simple & real time access (insurance, inscrip°…) Simple & real time exit (payment, reputa°)
  • 50. With the service we can (need) to Re-design the vehicle : EDAG & Vélib … Velib is an innovation, but a system innovation bring with ITS, infrastructure and business model Velib bicycle is not a good bicycle but Velib service is successfull ! Velib service bring new Practise. « Bad » Velib bike design are low important than benefits on Velib service. Then Vehicle designed for services will be « poor » for standard vehicle consumer & GE will be best positionned to design EV for Mobility Services …
  • 51. Always Car but BETTER utilisation & connected to Public Transport More info, clic here New Car and other Nrj Lighter Pay as you move More passenger per car Raw material & Investment In excess Raw material & Investment mutualised Pay as you use Access simplif. Payment Insurance Identity confidence Identity Historic reputation
  • 52. pers.km (flux) Billions City Extra urban Long dist. TOTAL PC PC serv. Train Bus Bike 2 W 2 W serv TOTAL 700 City Extra urban Long dist. TOTAL PC PC serv. Train Bus Bike 2 W 2 W serv TOTAL / pers / vehicle = City Extra urban Long dist. TOTAL PC PC serv. Train Bus Bike 2 W 2 W serv TOTAL vehicle.km combustion combustion + electricity electricity gCO2/km – MJ/km combustion combustion + electricity electricity Utilisation (% distance) average gCO2/km – MJ/km X = X = MTCO2 – MJ By energy By vehicle ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ)
  • 53. ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ) 200,0 300,0 400,0 500,0 600,0 700,0 800,0 900,0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 Voyageurs March Voiture VUL Camion 325 Flux de véhicule (Md véh.km) Flux de voyageur (Md voy.km) et de Marchandises (G T.km) 343 377 711 790 750 425 428 300 77 85 60 24 22 27 pers.km, vehicle.km and ton.km(flux) Pers/veh in PC serv: 1,2 1,5 2 % flux by PC serv 0 (city/extra/LD) 10-10-5 25-20-15 Pers/veh in Bus ref +20% +20%/2030 % flux by Bike 4-1-0 10-6-0 15-7-0 % flux by Bus 6 10 15
  • 54. ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ) Emissions de GES en MTCO2 et facteur de réduction (réf 1990) 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 71,2 17,7 32,1 40,6 21,9 10,1 14,5 11 3,5 121 72 29 Voyageurs VUL March 0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00 30,00 35,00 40,00 45,00 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 Voyageurs VUL March 38,5 1 24,5 2 12 5 CONSOMMATIONS ENERGETIQUES en MTEP (liquide/gaz et électricité) Liquide/Gaz Liquide/Gaz Liquide/Gaz Electricité Electricité Electricité GHG emission (MTCO2) and reduction factor ENERGY in MTEP • « standard » Progress • Electric, plug-in : first for PC serv • 2030 mix fleet : 100 gCO2/km 25 millions PC : 5% EV, 9% plug-in • 2050 mix fleet : 56 gCO2/km 16 millions PC : 28% EV, 38% plug-in Biofuel potential : • 5 MTEP biogas • 3 MTEP liquid (2G)
  • 56. Vincent Besson : Change ahead will be as violent as the transition from horse to the automobile » Michel Serres : Digital evolution, 3rd of our species after writing and printing Stéphane Vial : « After the wood , wind, water, coal and steel , and thermal and electrical machines , digital is the new matrix ».
  • 57. • The digital becomes the dominant technique. New Industrial empires are built around • The mutation of the object in the service is a chance • A new ecosystem is created , users are at the center , the data is the fuel ( renewable)
  • 58. 58 MOOC Challenges et enjeux de la mobilité 2.0 • Startup definition : “temporary organization designed to search for a repeatable and scalable business model.” Innovation(s)
  • 59. + Network Tool for simplification
  • 64. PLATFORM North America Europe Africa & Latin America Asia Source: P. Evans, CGE; CB Insights, Capital IQ, CrunchBase, 2015
  • 67. BLOCKCHAINED TRAVEL ? FULLY PEER 2 PEER P2P PLATFORMS
  • 69. « Company Value in Digital economy : its capacity to capture positive externality created by the users »
  • 75. Open source vs Patents TESLA , TOYOTA Hydrogen ELON As A Platform, MP II, Hyperloop
  • 77. Open Source Autopilot High number applications High Volume Of data More applications Car, truck, mini-bus More users, more Contributors More data to design Autopilot Higher volume Of Autopilot Lower price Of Autopilot
  • 78. « Data is the new oil » : user irruption, knowledge access (but who will have the data ?)
  • 79. How are we moving ? v1.0 (publ.)
  • 80. How are we moving ? v2.0 (private)
  • 81. Application Digital routes … « Bikability » How are we moving ? v2.0 (publ/private)
  • 82. = Lot 2 Lot 3 Lot 4 How are we moving ? v2.0 (publ/private)
  • 83. … by co-conception and experimentation Behavior CHANGE
  • 84. TO Start, 3 wrong ideas… • IF we provide clear demonstration, people change • WRONG ! WE ARE NOT RATIONAL ! Even with benefits, people don’t change for clear reasons • Emotional, Cultural, Social parameters are involved in our decision process. We Are Rational
  • 85. • People are always afraid to do new things, they like repetition … • WRONG ! Fear to change doesn’t exist. They are difference of culture, of understanding between people who design the solution and those who use them. • We change every day during our life. WE don’t like change
  • 86. • We need constraint and obligation to change • WRONG ! If we put constraint and obligation, then we develop resistance and by pass. • A volontary basis change is important to keep it during time. Only constraint is efficient
  • 87. People need to build its own way to change taking into account its day to day life We need to participate in the process of conception in order to provide its own rationality People need to be volontar in this process … In SUMMARY:
  • 88. Deep Day to Day Analysis of the Activity • By description of the activity WE take a distance • We can SHARE this experience with our PEER • WE AGREE on a COMMON TARGET TARGET CO-BUILDING • We IDENTIFY changement possibilities • We DESIGN one solution • We AGREE to test it in certain conditions EXPERIMENTATION • WE TEST as soon as possible in real life • WE SHARE Feed back, LEARN and IMPROVE • WE CREATE experience and learning curves HOW to DO this ? Décembre 2014
  • 89. 3 barriers for Integra° & Simplifica° More info, clic here Identify & Synchronise Main competences Industry Behavior Skill acceptability City
  • 90. Example Ha:Mo by Toyota VIDEO HA:Mo
  • 91. Vehicle Evolutions bring by Behavior evolution Less is more … More info, clic here Car owned Car non-owned less km More pass/veh Car non-owned And operated less km More pass/veh More efficient
  • 92. Integration & Simplification – DOUBLE Benefit ! More info, clic here Service Mobility brings : •Non-owned car •With New specifications •Used by citizens but not owned •Shared & operated •Using other energy •And much more efficient
  • 93. It’s a system of computer working as a network (on wheels) V7.0 can activate Autopilot You see a car ?
  • 94. IT’s a system of module in a vacuum tube created by a network of decentralised startups You see a new « train »
  • 95. The major innovation will be not to own a car.. Smartphone, = new key
  • 96. I
  • 97. I
  • 98. I
  • 101. 101 Innovations are changing… Uber, Waze, Blablacar, Drivy… and next ? New mobility behaviour at large scale Massives solutions Techno & Socio Identify, support and accelerate 1er sector for GHG, pollution, congestion FabMob version proto FABRIQUE DES MOBILITES A NEW WAY TO SUPPORT INNOVATION
  • 102. 102 BRINGING RESOURCES TO ENTREPRENEURS
  • 103. 103 Les Partners bring resources to projects think tank écoles pôles
  • 104. 104 Linving labs for testing (Infrastructures, vehicles, data, community, …) Expertises, Mentors Test bench, Calculation tools, Fablabs Learning capacity And Commons TO BRING RESOURCES AND ACCELERATIONS TO PROJECTS
  • 105. 105 ILS ACCÈDENT : - RESSOURCES - COMMUNS - ACCOMPAGNEMENT IMPROVE THE COMMONS 5 PUIS 10 À 100 PAR AN
  • 106. Sans Android (et Linux, et iOS,...), votre mobile ne serait pas ce qu’il est 1 0 6 juin 2017
  • 107. Disposer de briques pour construire ce que l’on veut 1 0 7 juin 2017
  • 109. La Fabrique, une machine à créer des communs 1 0 9 juin 2017 Une communauté (2 à 20) a besoin d’une ressource Est-elle existante et ouverte ? Indexation et documentation http://communs.lafabrique… Est-elle existante et fermée ? Accompagner l’ouverture Open Challenge Aider à la création Mutualisation, Co-financement, Choix de la licence Appel à commun OUI OUI NON NON NON
  • 110. Venez à votre énergie, on s’occupe du reste / wiki.lafabriquedesmobilites.fr Vous avez une idée, une communauté / déposer votre projet Pas de communauté / rejoignez les communautés existantes De la volonté / rejoignez les projets de communs en cours 25 1 1 0
  • 111. 111 Les Communs Innover par des plateformes ouvertes http://communs.lafabriquedesmobilites.fr
  • 112. Research actions for Mobility 2.0 • Multi-field : socio to techno, ITS to logistic … • Users science : how generate confidance ? How to integrate new user behavior ? • Understanding & Optimisation of complex system, • New method to understand new demand, to design solutions with users and providers, • Tool for capitalisation in order to « industrialise » methodology (not the solutions) • Living labs, requested to test, design, validate
  • 113. • Transition from Vehicle-object to Service is a chance for industry, citizen and environment, • New Value Chains, new actor, • Who will be multimodal mobility operator? • New ecosystem, user will be center • Data is the heart : to share • New culture to develop : education, learning in projects REMEMBER